I do not dispute that SpaceX costs have likely exceeded expectations. I simply pointed out that costs do not directly drive pricing.
I do not dispute that SpaceX costs have likely exceeded expectations. I simply pointed out that costs do not directly drive pricing.As has been pointed out, Elon has some strategic decision making to do when it comes to pricing. I do believe he intends to reduce prices in the long term. In the shorter term, higher margins may fund ways to dramatically cut costs and prices later on. This is obviously fluid and likely influences individual contract negotiations.I feel safe asserting that SpaceX costs are a fraction of other U.S. Providers and they will never rise to those levels, though they will likely become a larger fraction before beginning to decline.I think SpaceX low price guarrantee has some credibility in the marketplace and that commercial customers will begin to look at SpaceX when they require a launch. Government will come under increasing pressure to consider them as well, at least until the next problem.SpaceX has very little market power at this point, so it would be irresponsible to attempt to drive prices down too much this early. As they gain credibility through execution, they can bring costs and prices down, thus growing the market.Also, too large a price move too early can severely damage SpaceX credibility - and credibility is the scarce resource (limiter) for Spacex at this point.
The only caveat would be if SpaceX thinks it needs to offer the lower prices first for the large-volume markets to come into being.
The biggest danger is if/when SpaceX goes public and the wall street boys get hold of the books. They may find
Quote from: Luc on 04/02/2012 02:59 pmI do not dispute that SpaceX costs have likely exceeded expectations. I simply pointed out that costs do not directly drive pricing.And until SpaceX goes public we have no way of know how much SpaceX is losing or making on each flight. At this point, all the prices are SpaceX's promises.The biggest danger is if/when SpaceX goes public and the wall street boys get hold of the books. They may find the prices are unrealistic and set them to a level that will support into the future a healthy company. We could see EELV prices. We do not yet know how much this rocket will really cost.
That is only a risk if he surrenders a controlling share of the company, a thing he has stated directly that he doesn't plan to do. Minority shareholders do have some rights and can sue, but I don't they are likely to have anywhere near the power you are worried about.
Sigh, investing in a company without transparency never ends well. If SpaceX goes public, it will have to have transparency.
Quote from: Blackjax on 04/02/2012 07:58 pmThat is only a risk if he surrenders a controlling share of the company, a thing he has stated directly that he doesn't plan to do. Minority shareholders do have some rights and can sue, but I don't they are likely to have anywhere near the power you are worried about.Sigh, investing in a company without transparency never ends well. If SpaceX goes public, it will have to have transparency.
CRS-1 would likely become COTS demo 3.But really, it depends A LOT on the details.
at least ISS has Cygnus, ATV, Progress, and HTV.
Quoteat least ISS has Cygnus, ATV, Progress, and HTV.Only two more ATVs, one in 2013 and one in 2014 : http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n1204/02atvfuture/
Quote from: Robotbeat on 04/03/2012 05:11 pmCRS-1 would likely become COTS demo 3.But really, it depends A LOT on the details.I would argue, depending on how bad the failure is, it would be a year delay for COTS as all the investigations and modifications are done. If due to a Falcon 9 deficiency, this could seriously affect the downstream GEO work. Fingers crossed, and at least ISS has Cygnus, ATV, Progress, and HTV.
Quote from: friendly3 on 04/03/2012 10:31 pmQuoteat least ISS has Cygnus, ATV, Progress, and HTV.Only two more ATVs, one in 2013 and one in 2014 : http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n1204/02atvfuture/How is that relevant? One failure (on a DEMO mission, no less) wouldn't mean Dragon wouldn't fly ever.
ISS needs COTS.Cheers, Martin
Quote from: MP99 on 04/04/2012 12:45 pmISS needs COTS.Cheers, MartinAgreed. However, one group of people seem to disagree with this. They happen to be in Congress and holding the purse string.