Author Topic: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)  (Read 843846 times)

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #500 on: 04/02/2012 04:24 pm »
I do not dispute that SpaceX costs have likely exceeded expectations.  I simply pointed out that costs do not directly drive pricing.

And until SpaceX goes public we have no way of know how much SpaceX is losing or making on each flight. At this point, all the prices are SpaceX's promises.

The biggest danger is if/when SpaceX goes public and the wall street boys get hold of the books. They may find the prices are unrealistic and set them to a level that will support into the future a healthy company. We could see EELV prices. We do not yet know how much this rocket will really cost.
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Offline mrmandias

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #501 on: 04/02/2012 04:51 pm »
The point is that even if SpaceX has achieved breakthrough cost savings AND has a strategy of charging low prices and making their money on volume, UNTIL SpaceX can accommodate the volume it may well want to charge a clearing price for its product, to fund future development and expansion.  You are absolutely right.

The only caveat would be if SpaceX thinks it needs to offer the lower prices first for the large-volume markets to come into being.

I do not dispute that SpaceX costs have likely exceeded expectations.  I simply pointed out that costs do not directly drive pricing.

As has been pointed out, Elon has some strategic decision making to do when it comes to pricing.  I do believe he intends to reduce prices in the long term.  In the shorter term, higher margins may fund ways to dramatically cut costs and prices later on.  This is obviously fluid and likely influences individual contract negotiations.

I feel safe asserting that SpaceX costs are a fraction of other U.S. Providers and they will never rise to those levels, though they will likely become a larger fraction before beginning to decline.

I think SpaceX low price guarrantee has some credibility in the marketplace and that commercial customers will begin to look at SpaceX when they require a launch.  Government will come under increasing pressure to consider them as well, at least until the next problem.

SpaceX has very little market power at this point, so it would be irresponsible to attempt to drive prices down too much this early.  As they gain credibility through execution, they can bring costs and prices down, thus growing the market.

Also, too large a price move too early can severely damage SpaceX credibility - and credibility is the scarce resource (limiter) for Spacex at this point.

Offline Blackjax

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #502 on: 04/02/2012 05:07 pm »
The only caveat would be if SpaceX thinks it needs to offer the lower prices first for the large-volume markets to come into being.
 

I think it is exactly that.  Space projects have long lead times even when someone has made the decision to go ahead with something and has a source of funding.  They are even longer if the realization of the potential for significant changes to a market need to percolate through to possible new market entrants who might not have been thinking specifically about doing a space project.  If SpaceX wants things to really be rolling with payloads ready to fly 4-5 years from now, they need to get people starting to wake up to the possibilities now.

Offline go4mars

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #503 on: 04/02/2012 07:48 pm »
The biggest danger is if/when SpaceX goes public and the wall street boys get hold of the books. They may find
They are more likely to look at the fact that he has made investors money on everything he's touched.  Tesla stock IPO was $17/share.  It's down a bit from recent highs and is trading around $36.94 right now.  A double so far.  Wall street may moan or not, but at the end of the day, a lot of funds will throw big money at anything Elon touches.  He could start another company called "Flaming Poop Inc." and IPO it with no presented business plan for hundreds of millions. 
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Offline Blackjax

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #504 on: 04/02/2012 07:58 pm »
I do not dispute that SpaceX costs have likely exceeded expectations.  I simply pointed out that costs do not directly drive pricing.

And until SpaceX goes public we have no way of know how much SpaceX is losing or making on each flight. At this point, all the prices are SpaceX's promises.

The biggest danger is if/when SpaceX goes public and the wall street boys get hold of the books. They may find the prices are unrealistic and set them to a level that will support into the future a healthy company. We could see EELV prices. We do not yet know how much this rocket will really cost.

That is only a risk if he surrenders a controlling share of the company, a thing he has stated directly that he doesn't plan to do.  Minority shareholders do have some rights and can sue, but I don't they are likely to have anywhere near the power you are worried about.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #505 on: 04/02/2012 08:21 pm »

That is only a risk if he surrenders a controlling share of the company, a thing he has stated directly that he doesn't plan to do.  Minority shareholders do have some rights and can sue, but I don't they are likely to have anywhere near the power you are worried about.

Sigh, investing in a company without transparency never ends well. If SpaceX goes public, it will have to have transparency.
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Offline go4mars

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #506 on: 04/02/2012 08:25 pm »
Sigh, investing in a company without transparency never ends well. If SpaceX goes public, it will have to have transparency.
I think it would be transparent.  Soon after IPO time, the short position on Tesla stock was something like 48%!   A lot of people didn't/don't think its a viable business plan.  Just like a lot of investors won't believe in a giant Mars-colonization market.  Let the haters hate.  It doesn't stop the lovers. 
« Last Edit: 04/02/2012 08:26 pm by go4mars »
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #507 on: 04/02/2012 08:26 pm »

That is only a risk if he surrenders a controlling share of the company, a thing he has stated directly that he doesn't plan to do.  Minority shareholders do have some rights and can sue, but I don't they are likely to have anywhere near the power you are worried about.

Sigh, investing in a company without transparency never ends well. If SpaceX goes public, it will have to have transparency.
Apple?
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Offline Blackjax

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #508 on: 04/02/2012 09:04 pm »

That is only a risk if he surrenders a controlling share of the company, a thing he has stated directly that he doesn't plan to do.  Minority shareholders do have some rights and can sue, but I don't they are likely to have anywhere near the power you are worried about.

Sigh, investing in a company without transparency never ends well. If SpaceX goes public, it will have to have transparency.

I think there might have been a misunderstanding here, I was responding to the point about the IPO putting people in a position to force Elon to change prices against his will.  I might be missing something but I don't see how the degree of transparency they opt to operate under will affect that so long as he has a controlling interest.

Offline joertexas

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #509 on: 04/03/2012 05:07 pm »
Not to jinx the upcoming mission, but does SpaceX have a contingency plan in case this launch goes disastrously bad?

JR

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #510 on: 04/03/2012 05:11 pm »
CRS-1 would likely become COTS demo 3.

But really, it depends A LOT on the details.
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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #511 on: 04/03/2012 05:38 pm »
CRS-1 would likely become COTS demo 3.

But really, it depends A LOT on the details.

I would argue, depending on how bad the failure is, it would be a year delay for COTS as all the investigations and modifications are done.

If due to a Falcon 9 deficiency, this could seriously affect the downstream GEO work.

Fingers crossed, and at least ISS has Cygnus, ATV, Progress, and HTV.
 
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Offline friendly3

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #512 on: 04/03/2012 10:31 pm »
Quote
at least ISS has Cygnus, ATV, Progress, and HTV.

Only two more ATVs, one in 2013 and one in 2014 : http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n1204/02atvfuture/

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #513 on: 04/03/2012 10:34 pm »
Quote
at least ISS has Cygnus, ATV, Progress, and HTV.

Only two more ATVs, one in 2013 and one in 2014 : http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n1204/02atvfuture/
How is that relevant? One failure (on a DEMO mission, no less) wouldn't mean Dragon wouldn't fly ever.
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Offline cuddihy

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #514 on: 04/03/2012 11:58 pm »
CRS-1 would likely become COTS demo 3.

But really, it depends A LOT on the details.

I would argue, depending on how bad the failure is, it would be a year delay for COTS as all the investigations and modifications are done.

If due to a Falcon 9 deficiency, this could seriously affect the downstream GEO work.

Fingers crossed, and at least ISS has Cygnus, ATV, Progress, and HTV.
 

Well Cygnus is less proven than Dragon, ATV is ending after 2 more, so that leaves Progress and HTV!

Sure is getting pretty thin up there.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #515 on: 04/04/2012 03:17 am »
The first post-ATV year will be 2015. Why would we think a single failure would count out Dragon altogether until 2015? And why would we doubt Cygnus so much? Are American companies just really crappy at this compared to the Japanese and the Europeans? Kind of doubtful.

This next flight is carrying the equivalent of toilet paper, tang, and t-shirts. If it fails, it's really not that big of a deal to ISS logistics, as NASA has said repeatedly. SpaceX would solve the problem and launch another, just like Russia does whenever there has been a Progress or R7 failure. SpaceX has shown they can recover from a launch failure. Obviously, it would suck, but this is just a demo flight and this is just one vehicle among a fleet and ISS is already well-stocked.
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Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #516 on: 04/04/2012 09:05 am »
Quote
at least ISS has Cygnus, ATV, Progress, and HTV.

Only two more ATVs, one in 2013 and one in 2014 : http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n1204/02atvfuture/

How is that relevant? One failure (on a DEMO mission, no less) wouldn't mean Dragon wouldn't fly ever.

I wouldn't bank on it.  Congress is keen to find ways to divert cash to its priority project and a high-profile failure, especially by a hate figure like SpaceX, would be a godsend to those voices.
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Offline MP99

ISS needs COTS.

Cheers, Martin

Offline happyflower

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #518 on: 04/04/2012 03:49 pm »
ISS needs COTS.

Cheers, Martin

Agreed. However, one group of people seem to disagree with this. They happen to be in Congress and holding the purse string.

Offline Lurker Steve

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #519 on: 04/04/2012 04:29 pm »
ISS needs COTS.

Cheers, Martin

Agreed. However, one group of people seem to disagree with this. They happen to be in Congress and holding the purse string.

I haven't heard of anyone in Congress trying to slow down COTS / CRS. When a Congresswoman wants the pad at Wallops completed NOW, that doesn't signal slowdown to me. They have already opened their purse for risk-reduction activities.

Perhaps SpaceX is combining the COTS and CCDev activities, and that's where the confusion arises. I hope the Cargo-related activities and milestones haven't been delayed due to CCDev work. That is my biggest fear, and comes from personnal experience of management trying to manage too many projects at one time with too few resources. It just leads to the requirements from one project unfavorably affecting the ability to deliver another project on time. 



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