Quote from: Jim on 04/01/2012 04:31 pmQuote from: mmeijeri on 04/01/2012 04:15 pmQuote from: Jim on 04/01/2012 03:39 pmCosts are increasing Are you telling us this is your (obviously expert) opinion or are you saying this is something you know to be a fact because you have inside information?Obvious things. Touch and analysis labor are higher than predicted. The vehicle design is not static and things keep happening. Nozzle delams, thermal coatings, COLA analysis, etc. What it is for this mission will be something different for the next and the one after it, etc. A design or production issue found on one vehicle ripples through the fleet. Increasing flight rates doesn't change this.Thank you.Do you feel these are issues they can eventually get a handle on as they mature or will the remain ongoing problems indefinitely (if so, why?)?
Quote from: mmeijeri on 04/01/2012 04:15 pmQuote from: Jim on 04/01/2012 03:39 pmCosts are increasing Are you telling us this is your (obviously expert) opinion or are you saying this is something you know to be a fact because you have inside information?Obvious things. Touch and analysis labor are higher than predicted. The vehicle design is not static and things keep happening. Nozzle delams, thermal coatings, COLA analysis, etc. What it is for this mission will be something different for the next and the one after it, etc. A design or production issue found on one vehicle ripples through the fleet. Increasing flight rates doesn't change this.
Quote from: Jim on 04/01/2012 03:39 pmCosts are increasing Are you telling us this is your (obviously expert) opinion or are you saying this is something you know to be a fact because you have inside information?
Costs are increasing
Worker has a bad day and messes up a few holes or forgets a final torque.
unusual weather conditions affect the curing of some composites.
A supplier no longer makes a component, piece or particular alloy or goes out of business or gets taken over.
A worker leaves or retires and his skill wasn't fully captured in documentation.
Production rate is too low for robots.
The given design is not locked. It is ever evolving. The oops still happens no matter how mature processes are.
No, vertically integrated still has supplier issues
Bigger concern when inhouse, there are more skills that have to be retained.
Spacex is not immune from the same problems that others have, nor are they anymore robust. They will see the same amount
The given design is not locked. It is ever evolving.
Quote from: Jim on 04/01/2012 07:25 pmSpacex is not immune from the same problems that others have, nor are they anymore robust. They will see the same amountIn this context, would you consider yourself more philosophically in agreement out-sourcing as a general strategy? Or an in-house strategy?
No, but they do have the advantage of more modern manufacturing techniques than many providers.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 04/01/2012 08:20 pmNo, but they do have the advantage of more modern manufacturing techniques than many providers.Than who? Everyone does FSW.
RL-10 is ripe for modernization, though (hence why ULA is pursuing it).
SpaceX's slight advantage in this area will not last for that long.
Also there's the recent BBC interview in which Elon claimed SpaceX has made "significant technological breakthroughs" towards lower cost and higher reliability, which he refused to specify.
Quote from: krytek on 04/01/2012 09:26 pmAlso there's the recent BBC interview in which Elon claimed SpaceX has made "significant technological breakthroughs" towards lower cost and higher reliability, which he refused to specify.Yes I remember hearing about things such as reduced labour numbers, parts, and so on bearing directly on costs. Also the ability of engineering staff directly accessing production to sort through design and manufacturing issues. You can't do that sort of thing as readily if you outsource.
But you can only do that if you're well-capitalized.
I feel safe asserting that SpaceX costs are a fraction of other U.S. Providers