Author Topic: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3  (Read 324686 times)

Online deadman1204

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #700 on: 07/15/2022 07:17 pm »
Presumably this seat arrangement only applies to Dragon and Soyuz, given the lack of track record and even certification of Starliner at this point.  It took two demo flights and three and a half missions, plus some unknown number of Cargo V2 missions with some similarity (e.g. parachutes) before Russia agreed to fly on Crew Dragon.  If the same kind of track record is required for Starliner it almost doesn't seem worth the effort given the low number of planned flights.

Not having seat swaps on alternating flights (once Starliner is certified by NASA and in rotation) seems non-optimal but unavoidable to me.
Starliner will be easier. This took soo long, because Russia desperately wanted to go back to the US paying them piles of money for flights. Now that they've admitted that it will never happen again, adding in another vehicle will only be technical, not political.

Offline baldusi

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #701 on: 07/17/2022 08:19 pm »
Presumably this seat arrangement only applies to Dragon and Soyuz, given the lack of track record and even certification of Starliner at this point.  It took two demo flights and three and a half missions, plus some unknown number of Cargo V2 missions with some similarity (e.g. parachutes) before Russia agreed to fly on Crew Dragon.  If the same kind of track record is required for Starliner it almost doesn't seem worth the effort given the low number of planned flights.

Not having seat swaps on alternating flights (once Starliner is certified by NASA and in rotation) seems non-optimal but unavoidable to me.
Starliner will be easier. This took soo long, because Russia desperately wanted to go back to the US paying them piles of money for flights. Now that they've admitted that it will never happen again, adding in another vehicle will only be technical, not political.
Even Russians require three piloted flights before "commissioning" of the spacecraft. I.e., before that it is "experimental/test flights". So,  that would put the earliest Starliner that Russians accept to fly in at the third regular flight. That will probably be second half of 2025.
« Last Edit: 07/17/2022 08:20 pm by baldusi »

Online deadman1204

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #702 on: 07/18/2022 09:16 pm »
Presumably this seat arrangement only applies to Dragon and Soyuz, given the lack of track record and even certification of Starliner at this point.  It took two demo flights and three and a half missions, plus some unknown number of Cargo V2 missions with some similarity (e.g. parachutes) before Russia agreed to fly on Crew Dragon.  If the same kind of track record is required for Starliner it almost doesn't seem worth the effort given the low number of planned flights.

Not having seat swaps on alternating flights (once Starliner is certified by NASA and in rotation) seems non-optimal but unavoidable to me.
Starliner will be easier. This took soo long, because Russia desperately wanted to go back to the US paying them piles of money for flights. Now that they've admitted that it will never happen again, adding in another vehicle will only be technical, not political.
Even Russians require three piloted flights before "commissioning" of the spacecraft. I.e., before that it is "experimental/test flights". So,  that would put the earliest Starliner that Russians accept to fly in at the third regular flight. That will probably be second half of 2025.
This is the same country that hides any/all near miss/near loss of crews from NASA, because they don't want to look bad. I bet the 3 flight thing can be ignored.
« Last Edit: 07/18/2022 09:16 pm by deadman1204 »

Offline Lars-J

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #703 on: 07/19/2022 10:50 pm »
Presumably this seat arrangement only applies to Dragon and Soyuz, given the lack of track record and even certification of Starliner at this point.  It took two demo flights and three and a half missions, plus some unknown number of Cargo V2 missions with some similarity (e.g. parachutes) before Russia agreed to fly on Crew Dragon.  If the same kind of track record is required for Starliner it almost doesn't seem worth the effort given the low number of planned flights.

Not having seat swaps on alternating flights (once Starliner is certified by NASA and in rotation) seems non-optimal but unavoidable to me.
Starliner will be easier. This took soo long, because Russia desperately wanted to go back to the US paying them piles of money for flights. Now that they've admitted that it will never happen again, adding in another vehicle will only be technical, not political.
Even Russians require three piloted flights before "commissioning" of the spacecraft. I.e., before that it is "experimental/test flights". So,  that would put the earliest Starliner that Russians accept to fly in at the third regular flight. That will probably be second half of 2025.
This is the same country that hides any/all near miss/near loss of crews from NASA, because they don't want to look bad. I bet the 3 flight thing can be ignored.

No, I don't see any sinister motive here. Roscosmos has not had any insight into the Dragon design, nor Starliner. You would not expect NASA to fly astronauts on a hypothetical Russian or Chinese spacecraft that only had one manned test flight. In this case I think it is a perfectly valid decision on their part.

Offline AmigaClone

Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #704 on: 07/20/2022 01:54 am »
No, I don't see any sinister motive here. Roscosmos has not had any insight into the Dragon design, nor Starliner. You would not expect NASA to fly astronauts on a hypothetical Russian or Chinese spacecraft that only had one manned test flight. In this case I think it is a perfectly valid decision on their part.

I think part of the reason it took so long to formally sign the seat swap agreement between NASA and Roscosmos for seats on Crew Dragon and Soyuz was the former director of that agency.

Other contributing factors which likely had more effect were the Crew Dragon exploding in testing, Starliner's performance in its first mission and the valve problem that prevented Starliner from launching last year.

Offline Comga

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #705 on: 07/20/2022 02:21 am »
No, I don't see any sinister motive here. Roscosmos has not had any insight into the Dragon design, nor Starliner. You would not expect NASA to fly astronauts on a hypothetical Russian or Chinese spacecraft that only had one manned test flight. In this case I think it is a perfectly valid decision on their part.

I think part of the reason it took so long to formally sign the seat swap agreement between NASA and Roscosmos for seats on Crew Dragon and Soyuz was the former director of that agency.

Other contributing factors which likely had more effect were the Crew Dragon exploding in testing, Starliner's performance in its first mission and the valve problem that prevented Starliner from launching last year.

It has been said over and over.
Roscosmos was paid handsomely (up to $93M per ride and lifeboat seat IIRC) and is really impacted by losing that. The Kremlin is not just going to replace those funds one-for-one.
It is likely Rogozin wanted to see just how much NASA wanted “disparate redundancy” in crew transport and how much they would pay for it. Staying off Starliner was even easier than refusing rides on Dragon, seeing as it hadn’t even had a successful test flight.
It turns out not as much as he hoped, so zero dollar seat swapping was all he could get.
When it suits Russia’s purposes, seat swaps will be extended to Starliner, hard-and-fast rules from a bygone era be damned.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline yg1968

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Online deadman1204

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #707 on: 07/29/2022 06:25 pm »
https://twitter.com/SpcPlcyOnline/status/1550160447088779265
This should guarantee the human space flight needs to study a group of people 1 year in space.

Offline AmigaClone

Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #708 on: 08/02/2022 09:41 am »
https://twitter.com/SpcPlcyOnline/status/1550160447088779265

Once Starliner has a few operational missions under its belt, that might expand to two crew rotations in a year - provided Russia is still associated with the ISS.

Offline hektor

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #709 on: 08/20/2022 09:33 am »
Wouldn't that remove a source of income (and soft power) for them, such as the Belarus flight or the Tunisian woman flight.
« Last Edit: 08/20/2022 09:34 am by hektor »

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #710 on: 08/20/2022 02:03 pm »
https://twitter.com/SpcPlcyOnline/status/1550160447088779265

Once Starliner has a few operational missions under its belt, that might expand to two crew rotations in a year - provided Russia is still associated with the ISS.
Starliner will fly about once a year starting in 2023, so "a few missions" is "a few years". If Roscosmos want to see three crewed missions before flying on the fourth (i.e., Starliner-3), they will wait until 2026. Hardly seems worth it.

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #711 on: 08/26/2022 03:49 am »
With today's announcement that Boeing's PCM-1 will be in the fall of 2023, here is what I now get for the commercial crew missions until 2030:

2023 SpaceX-6 and Boeing-1
2024 SpaceX-7 and Boeing-2
2025 SpaceX-8 and Boeing-3
2026 SpaceX-9 and Boeing-4
2027 SpaceX-10 and Boeing-5
2028 SpaceX-11 and Boeing-6
2029- SpaceX-12 and SpaceX-13
2030- SpaceX-14 and perhaps one other mission to be awarded.

The February award stipulates the contract runs through March 31, 2028.

The starting date of the February contract was in 2023 (if needed). But if you look at the current schedule, SpaceX-6 would be in 2023. Overall, I get an extra mission for SpaceX in 2023 (or in 2029 if Boeing-1 is ready in 2023) but other than that, it's one per year for SpaceX.

2023 SpaceX-6 and 7
2024 SpaceX-8 and Boeing-1
2025 SpaceX-9 and Boeing-2
2026 SpaceX-10 and Boeing-3
2027 SpaceX-11 and Boeing-4
2028 SpaceX-12 and Boeing-5
2029- SpaceX-13 and Boeing-6
2030- SpaceX-14 and perhaps one other mission to be awarded.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_Crew_Program
I think they said that they were trying for PCM-1 (AKA Boeing-1 and Starliner-1) in the Fall of 2023. That shortens it up a bit. Your schedule also assumes SpaceX will actually bid on the CCP extension. They might not want to do that, since it prevents them from retiring Falcon 9. They also only have a total of 20 Crew Dragon flights unless they relax the 5-flights-per capsule rule, and the have been selling non-CCP flights. They might bid a different solution, or Dream Chaser may be available.

Offline yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #712 on: 08/26/2022 03:57 am »
There is already a notice of intent for 5 more SpaceX missions (so essentially until SpaceX-14). Boeing could object but I doubt that they would win. Jessica said that SpaceX could provide NASA crew Dragon services until 2030. So that is not an issue.
« Last Edit: 08/26/2022 04:19 am by yg1968 »

Offline Yiosie

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #713 on: 08/26/2022 04:09 am »
With today's announcement that Boeing's PCM-1 will be in the fall of 2023, here is what I now get for the commercial crew missions until 2030:

2023 SpaceX-6 and Boeing-1
2024 SpaceX-7 and Boeing-2
2025 SpaceX-8 and Boeing-3
2026 SpaceX-9 and Boeing-4
2027 SpaceX-10 and Boeing-5
2028 SpaceX-11 and Boeing-6
2029- SpaceX-12 and SpaceX-13
2030- SpaceX-14 and perhaps one other mission to be awarded.


Isn't Crew-7 still scheduled for 2023?

SpaceX Crew-7, Huginn mission patch, 2023

ESA astronaut Andreas Mogensen (DK) is scheduled to fly on a SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft to the International Space Station on its seventh crewed operational flight called Crew-7, the thirteenth overall Crew Dragon orbital flight. Flying with commander NASA astronaut Jasmin Moghbeli, Andreas will serve as spacecraft pilot - the first non-US astronaut assigned in this capacity. Two more crew members are to be named at a later date.

The name of Andreas’s second mission to the Space Station is ‘Huginn’. Inspired by Norse mythology, the name is taken from one of two ravens who serve as helper spirits of the god Odin. Called Huginn and Muninn, these two birds sit on Odin’s shoulders and are sent flying across the world at dawn. They return at night to inform him of the many events they have seen and heard. In Old Norse, ‘Huginn’ means ‘thought’ and ‘Muninn’ means ‘mind’ or ‘memory’.

The mission patch itself, designed by ESA graphic designer Karen Lochtenberg, is rendered in the red and white of the Danish flag, and ESA’s own ‘Deep Space Blue’ colour.

The raven Huginn is depicted flying to the right, moving into the future as he glides over an Earth-rise horizon, which could also be seen as the Moon or Mars. His wing includes shading in the shape of Andreas’s homeland, Denmark, while the white of the wing’s highlight – referred to by the designer as the ‘swoosh’ – depicts the journey to the Space Station from Andreas’s birthplace in Copenhagen.

Two stripes on Huginn’s back depict the distinctive solar arrays of the Station, and represent Andreas’s second spaceflight. Six stars in the background form a constellation that resembles the Viking symbol for 'safe travels'.

Related article: Introducing Huginn

https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2022/08/SpaceX_Crew-7_Huginn_mission_patch_2023

Image credit: ESA

Offline yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #714 on: 08/26/2022 04:19 am »
I got confused. Boeing said that they were targeting the fall of 2023 for PCM-1, so I assumed that NASA was on board with it but it probably just means that Boeing is still trying for the fall of 2023. It doesn't mean that Boeing's PCM-1 will be in the fall of 2023 or that NASA has accepted that date. I deleted my post. Sorry for the confusion.

Here is what was said:

13:06
Quote from: Mark Nappi
One other added area is PCM-1 [Post Certification Mission 1].  We have gone through all the same process of baselining our schedules and understanding everything that needs to be completed and we're targeting a Fall opportunity.  Both the Crew Module and the Service Module are also in work on the floor, so we have four vehicles in flow in the C3PF [Commercial Crew and Cargo Processing Facility], and when we get closer to vehicle readiness we'll be working a launch date with Steve and company as well.
« Last Edit: 08/26/2022 04:30 am by yg1968 »

Offline kdhilliard

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #715 on: 08/26/2022 07:53 am »
... Boeing said that they were targeting the fall of 2023 for PCM-1, so I assumed that NASA was on board with it but it probably just means that Boeing is still trying for the fall of 2023. It doesn't mean that Boeing's PCM-1 will be in the fall of 2023 or that NASA has accepted that date. ...

Yeah.  NASA said nothing on the subject, and I was surprised that none of the reporters picked up on it to ask NASA about the decision.  I suppose our next chance will be at the Crew-5 briefing.  ("A question for Steve Stitch: Mark Nappi mentioned targeting a Fall 2023 opportunity for Boeing PCM-1. When will you decide which provider's vehicle will fly that slot, and what will go into the decision making process?")

Going into this Boeing CFT briefing, (and influenced by the statements by and about Mogensen re Crew-7 in 2023) I was expecting them to explicitly say Boeing PCM-1 wouldn't be until 2024 (since the decision for Fall 2023 would have to be made before they could fully examine the results of CFT), but Nappi's statement sure implies that he thinks Boeing is in the running for Fall 2023 and thus NASA, at the very least, hasn't decided yet.

Offline kdhilliard

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #716 on: 08/26/2022 12:54 pm »
From yesterday's Boeing CFT briefing:
36:50
Joey Roulette: When will Soyuz / Starliner seat swaps start?
Joel Montalbano: Will start working that this fall.  Current Integrated Crew Agreement is for one flight per year in 2022, 2023, & 2024 with Soyuz / Crew Dragon seat swaps, but as soon as the September / October campaigns are over we will work on trying to fold in Boeing and make it a long-term agreement with a seat swap on every flight.  The goal is a modification to the existing agreement, with Starliner on the same terms as Crew Dragon, that being a no-cost barter, regardless of the vehicle.
(Paraphrased; not direct quotes)

Online deadman1204

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #717 on: 08/26/2022 04:26 pm »
... Boeing said that they were targeting the fall of 2023 for PCM-1, so I assumed that NASA was on board with it but it probably just means that Boeing is still trying for the fall of 2023. It doesn't mean that Boeing's PCM-1 will be in the fall of 2023 or that NASA has accepted that date. ...

Yeah.  NASA said nothing on the subject, and I was surprised that none of the reporters picked up on it to ask NASA about the decision.  I suppose our next chance will be at the Crew-5 briefing.  ("A question for Steve Stitch: Mark Nappi mentioned targeting a Fall 2023 opportunity for Boeing PCM-1. When will you decide which provider's vehicle will fly that slot, and what will go into the decision making process?")

Going into this Boeing CFT briefing, (and influenced by the statements by and about Mogensen re Crew-7 in 2023) I was expecting them to explicitly say Boeing PCM-1 wouldn't be until 2024 (since the decision for Fall 2023 would have to be made before they could fully examine the results of CFT), but Nappi's statement sure implies that he thinks Boeing is in the running for Fall 2023 and thus NASA, at the very least, hasn't decided yet.
I bet they just aren't saying it because why rain on starliner? The end is in sight for them, which is what this announcement was about.

Online JayWee

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #718 on: 08/31/2022 08:31 pm »
Is this the correct thread?

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-awards-spacex-more-crew-flights-to-space-station

Quote from: NASA
NASA has awarded five additional missions to Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) of Hawthorne, California, for crew transportation services to the International Space Station as part of the agency’s Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) contract. The CCtCap modification brings the total missions for SpaceX to 14 and allows NASA to maintain an uninterrupted U.S. capability for human access to the space station until 2030, with two unique commercial crew industry partners.

This is a firm fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract modification for the Crew-10, Crew-11, Crew-12, Crew-13, and Crew-14 flights. The value of this modification for all five missions and related mission services is $1,436,438,446. The amount includes ground, launch, in-orbit, and return and recovery operations, cargo transportation for each mission, and a lifeboat capability while docked to the International Space Station. The period of performance runs through 2030 and brings the total CCtCap contract value with SpaceX to $4,927,306,350.

The award follows the agency issuing a notice of intent in June 2022 to purchase the additional missions. The current sole source modification does not preclude NASA from seeking future contract modifications for additional transportation services, as needed.

$287,287,689 per flight, or $71,821,922 per seat
« Last Edit: 08/31/2022 08:32 pm by JayWee »

Offline yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #719 on: 08/31/2022 10:28 pm »
Is this the correct thread?

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-awards-spacex-more-crew-flights-to-space-station

Quote from: NASA
NASA has awarded five additional missions to Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) of Hawthorne, California, for crew transportation services to the International Space Station as part of the agency’s Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) contract. The CCtCap modification brings the total missions for SpaceX to 14 and allows NASA to maintain an uninterrupted U.S. capability for human access to the space station until 2030, with two unique commercial crew industry partners.

This is a firm fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract modification for the Crew-10, Crew-11, Crew-12, Crew-13, and Crew-14 flights. The value of this modification for all five missions and related mission services is $1,436,438,446. The amount includes ground, launch, in-orbit, and return and recovery operations, cargo transportation for each mission, and a lifeboat capability while docked to the International Space Station. The period of performance runs through 2030 and brings the total CCtCap contract value with SpaceX to $4,927,306,350.

The award follows the agency issuing a notice of intent in June 2022 to purchase the additional missions. The current sole source modification does not preclude NASA from seeking future contract modifications for additional transportation services, as needed.

$287,287,689 per flight, or $71,821,922 per seat

NASA added this:

Quote from: NASA
The current sole source modification does not preclude NASA from seeking future contract modifications for additional transportation services, as needed.

But as far as I know NASA doesn't really need other commercial missions until 2030 except perhaps one more.
« Last Edit: 08/31/2022 10:30 pm by yg1968 »

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