Major damage to PU-6 at Baikonur

[russianhalo117]

I have a question. Does Progress need the same pad? What about resupply for the cosmonauts?

Yes. All Soyuz-2 based launches from Baikonur are delayed without a prospect launch date.

Now the Soyuz family of spacecraft which includes Zond-L etal is launch vehicle agnostic with Proton and Zenit though never flown with crew and last used with an escape system in 1979 is a backup option of last resort that would require porting over to Proton-M. Only complex 81/23 and 81/24 were configured for crew capable launches exclusively with the Proton-K Blok-D version:
https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_lau_det/proton-k_blok-d.htm

[russianhalo117]

I have a question. Does Progress need the same pad? What about resupply for the cosmonauts?

Yes. All Soyuz-2 based launches from Baikonur are delayed without a prospect launch date.

Unless they use scafolding to service the souze before launching and dismantling it before launch, while the platform is rebuilt, could either of the other two sites be used as a backup: Guiana or Vostochny?

ELS is a frozen Russian asset. It would require a waiver to release it from sanctions and ELS is slated for redevelopment for other launchers by CSG owner CNES.

[catdlr]

Another view of this platform

[catdlr]

Is the Pad a Guiana still usable, or could the platform get dismantled and moved to Baikonur?

[Tywin]

Can the Progress launch from Vostochny?

[Nonexistence]

Major damage

The platform was ejected

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1994154558822527422

[russianhalo117]

Can the Progress launch from Vostochny?

Not without transporting all of the custom processing hardware for Soyuz MS/Progress MS and building a dedicated hall for it.

[russianhalo117]

Is the Pad a Guiana still usable, or could the platform get dismantled and moved to Baikonur?
https://youtube.com/watch?v=3gLfRoG8wMc#t=125s

No, the pad is a sanctions siezed Russian asset in response to the siezed OneWeb satellites in Baikonur Starsem processing complex andthe geopolitical war in the region. The pad is being rebuilt by CNES for MAIA Space and be redesignated at a later date:
https://centrespatialguyanais.cnes.fr/en/installations-lancement.

[russianhalo117]

This is pretty serious for Russia.  The ISS still has support from other partners. 

I wouldn’t even begin to guess how long, if ever, Russia can fix such things with their current political situation

It is preliminarily estimated by sources to take potentially two years to return the pad to service using canabalized hardware from other existing pads. The quickest alternatives are to outfit Vostochniy 1S and Baikonur 45/1 for crew excluding Proton-M via crew capable 81/24 last used for Soyuz family related spacecraft in 1979.

[mn]

I think we've seen plenty of times where something happens and the initial reaction is that this is huge and will take however long time to fix, and then after a few days and further analysis it turns out to be not nearly as bad as imagined. (or there's a good temporary fix ready).

Hoping that's the case here too, I think Russian engineers are very good at cooking up a solution to this kind of problem.

I would give it a few days before starting a search for alternate plans.

(and of course there's also cases of the opposite)

[StraumliBlight]

https://twitter.com/katlinegrey/status/1994086328875598320

On the photo you can see the maintenance cabin, the room where it moves during the launch, its shield from inside and the view from it to the flame trench.

[Vettedrmr]

I'm really glad that Dragon has demonstrated the ability to reboost ISS.

[catdlr]

Scoitt hasn't released his full video yet, but he did publish a short version.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-DYohQJDboM

[Nighthawk117]

Guys, I do not see this launch happening anytime soon.

[geza]

It is very strange. If I understand correctly, this structure should have moved into the safe alcove before launch. It didn't, but the launch happened anyway.

[russianhalo117]

It is very strange. If I understand correctly, this structure should have moved into the safe alcove before launch. It didn't, but the launch happened anyway.

No, it was retracted at the time of ignition. There are locks for each position travelled and fatigue could lead to weld failure with deferred maintenance or overlooked during inspections including throughout each launch campaign. If unsecured or incorrectly secured the launch environment can initiate rolling of structures. The service cabin crashed through the barriers and rolled off the end and fell to the bottom. Damage would have occurred to the launcher if launch was attempted and the service cabin would have been strewn across the trench in a much different and destroyed state. There are failsafe mechanisms in the launch system dating back to the R-7 ICBM days.

[TheKutKu]

https://vz.ru/news/2025/11/28/1377235.html

The emergency at Baikonur will not lead to the end of the manned space program. It will take several months to resolve the problem, but the first launch from the pad could take place as early as the first quarter of 2026, science journalist Mikhail Kotov, who was present at Baikonur during the incident, told Vzglyad newspaper. Roscosmos previously reported damage to the launch pad following the Soyuz launch.

[Svetoslav]

I'm not sure Mikhail Kotov is good at analyzing the situation. In his interview with Vzglyad, he claims that “if necessary, they can begin work at Vostochny.” Seriously… this option has already been considered and deemed too expensive and too difficult.

The Russians couldn’t even secure funding for repairs to the Gagarin Pad at Baikonur, which would have been far easier to complete-and instead, they turned it into a museum!

To trust that they can repair Pad 31, they need to:

1. Prove that they have the necessary hardware to carry out the required repairs on time, and

2. Demonstrate that they have the funding for the task and are willing to allocate it.

[TheKutKu]

IMO they can just cobble together some scaffolding for the technical crew to walk on and scavenge the more technical fuelling equipment from another site, then dissassemble the technical equipment a few hours before launch and let the scaffolding fall in the trench. This wouldn't be pretty and but it likely could work for a few launches a year until they have a better replacement.

It's mostly *just* an access platform, fundamentally. People are overthinking it when they mention using other pads.

[mn]

There are plenty of spare parts right there in the flame trench, I would not be surprised if much of it is usable.