New Glenn 9x4 discussion

[XRZ.YZ]

If adding a third stage with only one BE3U. Can it carry 27mt to TMI so will be direct replacement for SLS?

[DanClemmensen]

not every customer flight needs a super heavy lift.  SpaceX and Blue seem to be abandoning the small and medium market for others.

Wait for NG with Blue Ring deploying multiple payloads to (moderately?) different orbits in one launch.

Who saw Transporter and Bandwagon coming, before it happened?

I am unclear on the economics of these missions, but apparently it takes awhile for SpaceX to accumulate enough compatible customers for a mission. I surmise that a larger aggregate mass would require a larger amount of coordination effort and a longer time between missions. I would guess that a smaller LV with the same $/kg would be more flexible and the only reason F9 is effective is its very low $/kg. Am I missing something?

[JEF_300]

If adding a third stage with only one BE3U. Can it carry 27mt to TMI so will be direct replacement for SLS?

Any third stage will probably use BE-7.

Think of the reusable, 9 engine booster as being like the SLS SRBs, but with better performance.
The 4 engine GS2 is then like a mini-SLS core.
Thus, any third stage should be thought of more like ICPS and EUS; the stage that basically does not need to worry about gravity losses, and thus can go all in on specific impulse.

Of course, in Blue's plans, cislunar transporter is the thing that's supposed to be doing that job.

[JEF_300]

Until very recently, like last month, I was extremely skeptical that 9 engine New Glenn was a real thing that was actually going to happen, and I argued such a few different times. So I will take this opportunity to publicly concede that I was very wrong on this one.

[hkultala]

Good comparation vs FH...

https://twitter.com/KenKirtland17/status/1991568180666667236

That huge hydrogen upper stage has about 3.6x the thrust of the kerolox upper stage of FH.

But the weight difference of second stage + payload will be much less.

Falcon heavy second stage ~115 tonnes + payload 15 tonnes is about 130 tonnes total.
Thrust ~100 tonnes => T/W ratio ~ 0.77

New Glenn 9x4 second stage maybe about 300 tonnes + payload 20 tonnes is about 320 tonnes,
Thrust about 90 tonnes * 4 =~360 tonnes => T/W ratio ~1.1,

So New Glenn 9x4 second stage will have much better than the T/W ratio of the falcon second stage.

So no, it's not gravity losses "killing it".

[Tywin]

not every customer flight needs a super heavy lift.  SpaceX and Blue seem to be abandoning the small and medium market for others.

Wait for NG with Blue Ring deploying multiple payloads to (moderately?) different orbits in one launch.

Who saw Transporter and Bandwagon coming, before it happened?

Exactly the Blue Ring will flight a LOT...

[sstli2]

Until very recently, like last month, I was extremely skeptical that 9 engine New Glenn was a real thing that was actually going to happen, and I argued such a few different times. So I will take this opportunity to publicly concede that I was very wrong on this one.

I find paying attention to social media useful for this. Both 9-engine ("Kitsune") and 4-engine ("Quattro") got a lot of mentions from the Blue Origin employee crowd on Reddit.

Job postings are also useful. 9-engines was mentioned in multiple job postings. "Advanced Upper Stage" was also mentioned.

[wannamoonbase]

New skirt is 12 wide

Wouldn't you just move to a larger diameter tank at this point?

I've been asking the same question about Starship for years.  (I hate that it's not 10 meters in diameter)

[ZachF]

So now that we will have NG 9-4 and Starship, SLS is seeming extra superfluous…

This rocket is practically SLS tier and ~85% reusable.

[TrevorMonty]

New skirt is 12 wide

Wouldn't you just move to a larger diameter tank at this point?

If they keep the current diameter, then they can utilize the current tooling and methods that have been developed, right?

I would think that diameter is more difficult to change than overall length... especially since the domes can keep the current manufacturing method?

Pad and transporters are all setup for 7m. I assume they built pad ie flame trench to take this extra thrust.

[TrevorMonty]

Good comparation vs FH...

https://twitter.com/KenKirtland17/status/1991568180666667236

That huge hydrogen upper stage has about 3.6x the thrust of the kerolox upper stage of FH.

But the weight difference of second stage + payload will be much less.

Falcon heavy second stage ~115 tonnes + payload 15 tonnes is about 130 tonnes total.
Thrust ~100 tonnes => T/W ratio ~ 0.77

New Glenn 9x4 second stage maybe about 300 tonnes + payload 20 tonnes is about 320 tonnes,
Thrust about 90 tonnes * 4 =~360 tonnes => T/W ratio ~1.1,

So New Glenn 9x4 second stage will have much better than the T/W ratio of the falcon second stage.

So no, it's not gravity losses "killing it".

A 2.5 stage LV  (FH) will always give better performance due to staging. Downside is 3 boosters  to recover and maintain than one large one.

[meekGee]

https://x.com/davill/status/1991544049095045367

Getting closer to Saturn V's liftoff thrust:

9 subcooled BE-4s	25,622 kN
5 F-1s	33,362 kN

In the reddit thread, NG upgrade's internal name was revealed as "KITSUNE". Someone suggested "Because it's a nine tailed fourx?"

That's exactly what BO should be doing, not standing still. Good for them, color me a fan and impressed.

However, this is not remotely a Starship - even in its full-up configuration it is just a notch above FH.

So answering the other question: Yes, they absolutely have to do a rapidly reusable 200-ton class vehicle, because this ain't that.

And soon. The rocket it's going to beat will be retired by the time the 9x4 flies.

[meekGee]

Good comparation vs FH...

https://twitter.com/KenKirtland17/status/1991568180666667236

FH is not 15 ton to LEO expended, where did you get that?  It's over 60 tons.
Even when recovering 3 cores it's well over 40.

NG 9x4 should be similar. 

EDIT:  ah, TLI.  Yes, that will make sense due to higher ISP.  9x4 lifts off a bit heavier than FH, so by the time it's at TLI, a 33% difference is reasonable.

[SpaceLizard]

https://x.com/davill/status/1991544049095045367

Getting closer to Saturn V's liftoff thrust:

9 subcooled BE-4s	25,622 kN
5 F-1s	33,362 kN

In the reddit thread, NG upgrade's internal name was revealed as "KITSUNE". Someone suggested "Because it's a nine tailed fourx?"

That's exactly what BO should be doing, not standing still. Good for them, color me a fan and impressed.

However, this is not remotely a Starship - even in its full-up configuration it is just a notch above FH.

So answering the other question: Yes, they absolutely have to do a rapidly reusable 200-ton class vehicle, because this ain't that.

And soon. The rocket it's going to beat will be retired by the time the 9x4 flies.

Good comparation vs FH...

https://twitter.com/KenKirtland17/status/1991568180666667236

FH is not 15 ton to LEO expended, where did you get that?  It's over 50 IIRC, maybe even 60...

The picture actually says TLI (Trans-Lunar Injection).

[envy887]

Current New Glenn is ~7 t to TLI per NASA LSP. Extrapolating based on the 49% booster thrust increase bumps that to 10.5 t. There's a slight increase in performance from improved mass ratios from subcooling, and from increased upper stage thrust, but neither of those seem like they would get it to 20 t.

[Stan-1967]

A 2.5 stage LV  (FH) will always give better performance due to staging. Downside is 3 boosters  to recover and maintain than one large one.

Man this comparison takes me back to 2016-2017 when we were all talking about what a kludge FH was. NG is not a kludge!  Beautiful vehicle!

[meekGee]

https://x.com/davill/status/1991544049095045367

Getting closer to Saturn V's liftoff thrust:

9 subcooled BE-4s	25,622 kN
5 F-1s	33,362 kN

In the reddit thread, NG upgrade's internal name was revealed as "KITSUNE". Someone suggested "Because it's a nine tailed fourx?"

That's exactly what BO should be doing, not standing still. Good for them, color me a fan and impressed.

However, this is not remotely a Starship - even in its full-up configuration it is just a notch above FH.

So answering the other question: Yes, they absolutely have to do a rapidly reusable 200-ton class vehicle, because this ain't that.

And soon. The rocket it's going to beat will be retired by the time the 9x4 flies.

Good comparation vs FH...

https://twitter.com/KenKirtland17/status/1991568180666667236

FH is not 15 ton to LEO expended, where did you get that?  It's over 50 IIRC, maybe even 60...

The picture actually says TLI (Trans-Lunar Injection).

Ah thx.
Yes, with higher ISP NG should outperform FH by a nice margin at higher energies, agreed.

[TrevorMonty]

A 2.5 stage LV  (FH) will always give better performance due to staging. Downside is 3 boosters  to recover and maintain than one large one.

Man this comparison takes me back to 2016-2017 when we were all talking about what a kludge FH was. NG is not a kludge!  Beautiful vehicle!

FH achieved its mission objective, allow SpaceX to compete directly with ULA for NSSL missions even if F9 flys most of them.

Back to main program. These upgrades on NG are awesome and came out of the Blue (pun intended)

[Brigantine]

I am unclear on the economics of these missions, but apparently it takes awhile for SpaceX to accumulate enough compatible customers for a mission. I surmise that a larger aggregate mass would require a larger amount of coordination effort and a longer time between missions. I would guess that a smaller LV with the same $/kg would be more flexible and the only reason F9 is effective is its very low $/kg. Am I missing something?

NG transporter to GEO would only be similar aggregate mass to F9 Transporter to SSO, and I suspect the average rideshare customer would indeed have a higher mass satellite.
Then you can also have customers to GTO and customers to GEO on the same mission, potentially also with LEO payloads to 27-33⁰ inclination if you can think of any.

Re coordination, yeah I got nothing to argue against that. Need some fair way to price for that, and maybe the result is that cubesats don't fly on NG

[StraumliBlight]

https://www.blueorigin.com/es-MX/new-glenn/9x4

Our First Super-Heavy Class Vehicle
More volume, performance, and affordability. 9x4 is nearly 400 feet tall. Its 8.7 meter fairing packs 29,000 cubic feet of volume, nearly 70% more than New Glenn's 7x2 configuration. 9x4 evolves the 7x2 variant, using existing designs, subsystems, manufacturing processes, and operations footprint.

5.7 Million Pounds of Lift
9x4’s reusable first stage is designed for a minimum of 25 missions and will be powered by nine BE-4 Block 2 engines. They will generate over 5.7 million lbf combined thrust (25,621 kN), 50% more than New Glenn’s current first stage.

Superpowered Second Stage Performance
Powered by four BE-3U engines, 9x4’s second stage carries 70 metric tons to low Earth orbit, 14 metric tons to Geostationary Orbit Direct, and 20 metric tons to Trans Lunar Injection. The second stage engines generate over 800,000 lbf thrust (3,558 kN), more than 100% of New Glenn 7x2 configuration.

A Super-Heavy Evolution
9x4's addition to our fleet supports demand for larger commercial mega-constellations, lunar and deep space exploration, and national security missions.  A visual comparison shows the progression from New Glenn's 7x2 configuration, with the historic Saturn V shown for scale.