If Blue can make a successful reusable second stage I think that will be much more competitive in the commercial marketplace. A fully reusable New Glenn should be cheaper than Falcon Heavy or BFR, giving Blue the chance to capture a significant share of the market.
In light of the success of the Falcon Heavy and it soon commercial debut, what is the primary business case for the New Glenn rocket?
Make access to space at much lower cost so that thousands of entrepreneurs can do amazing and interesting things, and take us into the next era.
I was trying to get a good grasp on the capability differences, but its a bit hard because the listings are now always up front about expendable vs. non expendable modes. From my reading, it seems like their payload capability is very close. With both being reusable, but NewGlenn being much bigger, it seems like it would be easy for SpaceX, who is already far ahead on testing/manufacturing, to put significant price presser on Blue Origin. Is there any large benefit of the New Glenn with the exception of the larger payload faring?
I doubt a fully reusable New Glenn would be cheaper than BFR. BFR is RTLS and can do large GTO payloads with full reuse. New Glenn doesn't have the performance for either of those. The launch cradle concept could help make BFR much cheaper than even a fully reusable New Glenn.
I don't care what Musk said at IAC 2017, NG will undercut BFR in getting comm sats into orbit. I keep fearing that BFR is a space cadet fantasy. BFR is massive, complex, and oversized - no satellite company is thinking of building a spacecraft so big that it can only rely on one vehicle to launch. Large military satellites aren't common. Human spaceflight isn't common either. BFR will need to launch comm sats at a profit if Spacex is to have a future? The only way it beats NG is by multiple rideshares. Matching payloads to orbits isn't easy, but Ariane has managed. Putting more than two into BFR makes it even harder (could Spacex come up with a GTO stage for the BFR cargo bay?) More complexity, cost, points of failure etc...
When did Blue Origin ever say that their S2 would be reusable?
Stages mentioned as 'initially expendable' here, which implies that they will late be reused:https://i.redd.it/htkas6gr60ny.jpg
There are no realistic, regular payloads that FH will fly that NG can't. NG is smaller and less complex. New Glenn will destroy FH once they get it working. We have no idea how long that will take because it rockets rarely, if ever, get developed on time. Nor does that development process stop with the first launch. For now, I won't consider reusable upper stages for the Falcon family and New Glenn: both companies have enough on their plate as it is.The more interesting question is perhaps NG vs F9 Block 5, and NG vs BFR.If the GEO satellites don't grow much bigger, the smaller, well proven, high flight rate F9 could concievably undercut NG. It certainly should for LEO flights. NG could counter with rideshares, but I'm not clear how this competition balances out.I don't care what Musk said at IAC 2017, NG will undercut BFR in getting comm sats into orbit. I keep fearing that BFR is a space cadet fantasy. BFR is massive, complex, and oversized - no satellite company is thinking of building a spacecraft so big that it can only rely on one vehicle to launch. Large military satellites aren't common. Human spaceflight isn't common either. BFR will need to launch comm sats at a profit if Spacex is to have a future? The only way it beats NG is by multiple rideshares. Matching payloads to orbits isn't easy, but Ariane has managed. Putting more than two into BFR makes it even harder (could Spacex come up with a GTO stage for the BFR cargo bay?) More complexity, cost, points of failure etc...
Quote from: Darkseraph on 02/10/2018 02:46 amThe second stage is only initially expendable. Future versions will be reusable. The recovery method for New Glenn is less complex therefore probably cheaper. The business case for NG appears to be strong enough that they have already sold flights to multiple commercial customers, indicating that despite its large size it is competitive with existing or emerging launch vehicles.When did Blue Origin ever say that their S2 would be reusable?Quote from: Robotbeat on 02/10/2018 03:09 amQuote from: Steven Pietrobon on 02/10/2018 03:06 amIf Blue can make a successful reusable second stage I think that will be much more competitive in the commercial marketplace. A fully reusable New Glenn should be cheaper than Falcon Heavy or BFR, giving Blue the chance to capture a significant share of the market.I doubt a fully reusable New Glenn would be cheaper than BFR. BFR is RTLS and can do large GTO payloads with full reuse. New Glenn doesn't have the performance for either of those. The launch cradle concept could help make BFR much cheaper than even a fully reusable New Glenn.The launch cradle could end up being a disadvantage. It could cause significant damage to the pad on every landing, and if even 1/100 landings fail, that's a huge additional cost of rebuilding the pad many times to consider. I don't see how New Glenn couldn't do large GTO payloads when its reusable capability is already significantly higher than FH.
The second stage is only initially expendable. Future versions will be reusable. The recovery method for New Glenn is less complex therefore probably cheaper. The business case for NG appears to be strong enough that they have already sold flights to multiple commercial customers, indicating that despite its large size it is competitive with existing or emerging launch vehicles.
Quote from: Steven Pietrobon on 02/10/2018 03:06 amIf Blue can make a successful reusable second stage I think that will be much more competitive in the commercial marketplace. A fully reusable New Glenn should be cheaper than Falcon Heavy or BFR, giving Blue the chance to capture a significant share of the market.I doubt a fully reusable New Glenn would be cheaper than BFR. BFR is RTLS and can do large GTO payloads with full reuse. New Glenn doesn't have the performance for either of those. The launch cradle concept could help make BFR much cheaper than even a fully reusable New Glenn.
QuoteStages mentioned as 'initially expendable' here, which implies that they will late be reused:https://i.redd.it/htkas6gr60ny.jpg'Initially expendable' only suggests they might become reusable eventually, I think.