Author Topic: Countdown to new smallsat launchers  (Read 403915 times)

Online Bananas_on_Mars

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #460 on: 12/04/2018 08:06 pm »
Launcher has hired a chief designer, and he seems to be a rocket-engineering heavyweight:

Announcing Launcher Chief Designer Igor Nikishchenko

Offline ringsider

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #461 on: 12/18/2018 04:55 pm »
I saw a comment a couple of days ago about the "great consolidation" now Rocket Lab is starting to fly regularly, and I do think that is an interesting topic. We certainly start to see some companies failing for various reasons e.g. Aphelion, ARCA, XCOR.

I few months back I posted this list of potential winners/losers in the USA only:-

Cream:
Virgin Orbit (because they have stamina, massive money, commitment and will get there one way or another)
Rocket Lab (because they have serious money and made very solid progress)
Stratolauncher (because Paul Allen's dollars)

Long shots:
Firefly Aerospace
Relativity

Very long shots:
Aphelion
ABL
Interorbital
Go Launcher
Vacuous Space Systems AKA Vector
EXOS
New Ascent
Odyne
Rocketcrafters
Scorpius
Stofiel Aerospace
Ventions
UP Orbital
Whittinghill
Launcherspace
Cloudix

DOA:
ARCA
CubeCab
Mishaal
Bagaveev
RocketStar
Spinlaunch
VALT
XCOR
bspace

I guess we could add some international names to that list as well like OneSpace, Landspace, PLD, Gilmour, Interorbital Japan and Orbex Space but I leave that area alone for now.

What has changed? Who is going down in flames, who has risen like a pheonix?

Offline brussell

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #462 on: 12/18/2018 06:19 pm »
What has changed? Who is going down in flames, who has risen like a pheonix?

No Astra Space? They have "launched" a couple of big rockets. I also think Vector has a better shot than Firefly or Relativity. Cantrell may do a lot of over the top sales pitching (successfully, I may say) but Garvey's tech is real.
« Last Edit: 12/18/2018 06:23 pm by brussell »

Offline Davidthefat

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #463 on: 12/18/2018 06:31 pm »
What has changed? Who is going down in flames, who has risen like a pheonix?

No Astra Space? They have "launched" a couple of big rockets. I also think Vector has a better shot than Firefly or Relativity. Cantrell may do a lot of over the top sales pitching (successfully, I may say) but Garvey's tech is real.

Firefly's and Relativity's and other company's tech is real as well. Not sure how launching undersized, non representative tanks 2000 feet off the ground without any guidance gives them a "much better" chance than the other outfits there. IMO, it's the same rockets that Garvey has been launching a decade ago, just with big scaffolding.


edit: as a comparison, Exos's SARGE reached 28 km altitude.
« Last Edit: 12/18/2018 06:38 pm by Davidthefat »

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #464 on: 12/18/2018 06:59 pm »
Firefly has experienced leadership and seems to have financial backing.

Not so sure of Relativity as launch provider, 3d printing tanks and engines is one thing. Building all infrastructure to support a LV is  totally different.
I can see a market for their 3D printing technology which maybe the path they take.


Online Bananas_on_Mars

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #465 on: 12/18/2018 07:35 pm »
Firefly has experienced leadership and seems to have financial backing.

Not so sure of Relativity as launch provider, 3d printing tanks and engines is one thing. Building all infrastructure to support a LV is  totally different.
I can see a market for their 3D printing technology which maybe the path they take.
What's so complicated about the launch infrastructure? I get it's not a simple task, but i don't think it's harder than building a rocket and its engines from scratch.

Their recent hires should bring the necessary experience

My feeling is that they will go the "fully automated" route for launch operations, plus a "clean pad" approach, because it also suits their ambitions to launch from Mars. And you don't have to select your launch site that early in your development.

Offline Lars-J

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #466 on: 12/18/2018 08:31 pm »
I few months back I posted this list of potential winners/losers in the USA only:-

Cream:
Virgin Orbit (because they have stamina, massive money, commitment and will get there one way or another)
Rocket Lab (because they have serious money and made very solid progress)
Stratolauncher (because Paul Allen's dollars)

Long shots:
Firefly Aerospace
Relativity

Personally I would demote Stratolauncher into the long shots category - or even lower. They have money, yes, but money doesn't buy you smarts. They have squandered so much going in weird directions. Yes, they seem to have made some propulsion progress for their "in-house" launch vehicle, but I don't rate their prospects that highly. (At least based on what is publicly known)  :)
« Last Edit: 12/18/2018 08:34 pm by Lars-J »

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #467 on: 12/19/2018 02:26 am »
Considering that ARCA are about to test their LAS25D 245 kN and D3 Aerospike engine soon (they say 20 December), they might have moved into Very Long Shots.

https://www.facebook.com/arcaspace/
« Last Edit: 12/19/2018 02:27 am by Steven Pietrobon »
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Offline Lars-J

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #468 on: 12/19/2018 04:11 am »
Considering that ARCA are about to test their LAS25D 245 kN and D3 Aerospike engine soon (they say 20 December), they might have moved into Very Long Shots.

https://www.facebook.com/arcaspace/

IMO the appropriate reaction to ARCA is to believe it when you see it. They have been producing low to medium fidelity mock-ups for years. Real rocket hardware? Not much. I would love to see them actually do something, and fire one of these bigger engines for once, but I have severe doubts.
« Last Edit: 12/19/2018 04:13 am by Lars-J »

Offline Asteroza

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #469 on: 12/19/2018 04:40 am »
GO Launcher builds on work they will do for X60-A, so maybe pushing into long shot territory?

Offline brussell

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #470 on: 12/19/2018 07:42 pm »
What has changed? Who is going down in flames, who has risen like a pheonix?

No Astra Space? They have "launched" a couple of big rockets. I also think Vector has a better shot than Firefly or Relativity. Cantrell may do a lot of over the top sales pitching (successfully, I may say) but Garvey's tech is real.

Firefly's and Relativity's and other company's tech is real as well. Not sure how launching undersized, non representative tanks 2000 feet off the ground without any guidance gives them a "much better" chance than the other outfits there. IMO, it's the same rockets that Garvey has been launching a decade ago, just with big scaffolding.


edit: as a comparison, Exos's SARGE reached 28 km altitude.

Nah. There's 0 chance Firefly or Relativity get anything in orbit before Vector. Vector now has enough money to get ex-Spacex and Virgin from the local talent. Vector also has had guided rockets for a while now. Firefly is somewhat screwed getting people to Austin, sketchy funding, Boeing/Lockheed executives, etc. And Relativity is a 3D printing company that may or may not build a rocket.

And what about Exos? No money, no Carmack, and still reusing the same rockets that were developed back when they had both.

Offline Lars-J

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #471 on: 12/19/2018 08:45 pm »
Nah. There's 0 chance Firefly or Relativity get anything in orbit before Vector. Vector now has enough money to get ex-Spacex and Virgin from the local talent. Vector also has had guided rockets for a while now. Firefly is somewhat screwed getting people to Austin, sketchy funding, Boeing/Lockheed executives, etc. And Relativity is a 3D printing company that may or may not build a rocket.

0 chance? Wow, you are really bullish on Vector. Do you have any inside information to build that point of view? Because in my view based on what we have seen, Vector only slightly more credible than ARCA. Their "block 0" launches have been far from impressive (and not guided), and weren't they supposed to have orbital flights by this past summer? Vector is much hype and mock-ups, but they don't have much real to show for it.

No, I see Firefly as far more capable than Vector. Their engine test program alone is leaps ahead.
« Last Edit: 12/19/2018 08:47 pm by Lars-J »

Offline Kansan52

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #472 on: 12/19/2018 09:00 pm »
From the outside, Exos doesn't need more talent. They are familiar with their already developed tech. They are on track to win a share of the market.

Offline whitelancer64

Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #473 on: 12/19/2018 09:29 pm »
Nah. There's 0 chance Firefly or Relativity get anything in orbit before Vector. Vector now has enough money to get ex-Spacex and Virgin from the local talent. Vector also has had guided rockets for a while now. Firefly is somewhat screwed getting people to Austin, sketchy funding, Boeing/Lockheed executives, etc. And Relativity is a 3D printing company that may or may not build a rocket.

0 chance? Wow, you are really bullish on Vector. Do you have any inside information to build that point of view? Because in my view based on what we have seen, Vector only slightly more credible than ARCA. Their "block 0" launches have been far from impressive (and not guided), and weren't they supposed to have orbital flights by this past summer? Vector is much hype and mock-ups, but they don't have much real to show for it.

No, I see Firefly as far more capable than Vector. Their engine test program alone is leaps ahead.

Vector has been doing engine test fires as well. Check out their Twitter feed sometime.
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Offline RDMM2081

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #474 on: 12/19/2018 09:44 pm »
RE: Vector, ARCA, Firefly:

Engines are great, but I think one of the biggest lessons I personally learned by watching the very first Rocketlab launch is that the hard part happens once you get way off the ground.  Comms, second stages, telemetry, RCS, orbital insertion, etc.

I'm not saying propulsion is "solved" by any means, or that you can get off the ground without it, but in terms of this day and age, getting "off the ground" isn't as much of an accomplishment as it used to be.

I personally put EXOS farther ahead because as an integrated launch system it is nearly complete with its test program and ready to go operational.

Online gongora

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #475 on: 12/19/2018 11:36 pm »
I personally put EXOS farther ahead because as an integrated launch system it is nearly complete with its test program and ready to go operational.

For orbital launch?

Offline RDMM2081

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #476 on: 12/19/2018 11:52 pm »
I personally put EXOS farther ahead because as an integrated launch system it is nearly complete with its test program and ready to go operational.

For orbital launch?

No, sorry that wasn't clear.  But closer to their product to sell was what I intended to say.

Online darkenfast

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #477 on: 12/20/2018 04:55 am »
Nah. There's 0 chance Firefly or Relativity get anything in orbit before Vector. Vector now has enough money to get ex-Spacex and Virgin from the local talent. Vector also has had guided rockets for a while now. Firefly is somewhat screwed getting people to Austin, sketchy funding, Boeing/Lockheed executives, etc. And Relativity is a 3D printing company that may or may not build a rocket.

0 chance? Wow, you are really bullish on Vector. Do you have any inside information to build that point of view? Because in my view based on what we have seen, Vector only slightly more credible than ARCA. Their "block 0" launches have been far from impressive (and not guided), and weren't they supposed to have orbital flights by this past summer? Vector is much hype and mock-ups, but they don't have much real to show for it.

No, I see Firefly as far more capable than Vector. Their engine test program alone is leaps ahead.

Vector has been doing engine test fires as well. Check out their Twitter feed sometime.

Yes, we've seen the test-fires, but the launches thus far have been rather misleading stunts: no guidance, small tanks inside a fuselage with fins, only show the lift-off because that's all there was and so on.  Cantrell was talking about getting rockets shipped to Kodiak this season, but now they're apparently launching from some amateur rocket site in California to under 10,000 feet.  Have I missed something?
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Offline QuantumG

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #478 on: 12/20/2018 05:44 am »
Cantrell was talking about getting rockets shipped to Kodiak this season, but now they're apparently launching from some amateur rocket site in California to under 10,000 feet.  Have I missed something?

You mean the inner workings of the company? Yeah, we're all missing that. So what? That's par- for the course. I think some of you might have been around when John Carmack was telling us everything they were doing at Armadillo Aerospace, along with their whole thought process and all the things they'd considered before settling on the current project, etc. They told us everything that went wrong, what they were going to have to do about that to stay on track to achieving the project's goal, etc, etc. It was a great experience - kinda like you were working there. We've never seen anything like it - except maybe Copenhagen Suborbitals, if you read all their Danish posts and follow all the politics, urgh.  So what the hell is happening inside Firefly, or Vector, or any of these other companies? We don't know, and you're definitely not going to get that information from reading their Twitter feed.
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Offline john smith 19

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Re: Countdown to new smallsat launchers
« Reply #479 on: 12/20/2018 05:57 am »
Considering that ARCA are about to test their LAS25D 245 kN and D3 Aerospike engine soon (they say 20 December), they might have moved into Very Long Shots.

https://www.facebook.com/arcaspace/
That looks like a linear aerospike at the back end of solid stage. Is that right?

Which seems an exceedingly difficult  with little benefits.

More the sort of project you'd be funded by someone else to do rather than something a startup would think is a sensible use of (limited) resources.
[EDIT So the linear aerospike is a pressure fed HTP thruster, rather than a biprop?
« Last Edit: 12/20/2018 06:16 am by john smith 19 »
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