What has changed? Who is going down in flames, who has risen like a pheonix?
Quote from: ringsider on 12/18/2018 04:55 pmWhat has changed? Who is going down in flames, who has risen like a pheonix?No Astra Space? They have "launched" a couple of big rockets. I also think Vector has a better shot than Firefly or Relativity. Cantrell may do a lot of over the top sales pitching (successfully, I may say) but Garvey's tech is real.
Firefly has experienced leadership and seems to have financial backing.Not so sure of Relativity as launch provider, 3d printing tanks and engines is one thing. Building all infrastructure to support a LV is totally different. I can see a market for their 3D printing technology which maybe the path they take.
I few months back I posted this list of potential winners/losers in the USA only:-Cream:Virgin Orbit (because they have stamina, massive money, commitment and will get there one way or another)Rocket Lab (because they have serious money and made very solid progress)Stratolauncher (because Paul Allen's dollars)Long shots:Firefly AerospaceRelativity
Considering that ARCA are about to test their LAS25D 245 kN and D3 Aerospike engine soon (they say 20 December), they might have moved into Very Long Shots.https://www.facebook.com/arcaspace/
Quote from: brussell on 12/18/2018 06:19 pmQuote from: ringsider on 12/18/2018 04:55 pmWhat has changed? Who is going down in flames, who has risen like a pheonix?No Astra Space? They have "launched" a couple of big rockets. I also think Vector has a better shot than Firefly or Relativity. Cantrell may do a lot of over the top sales pitching (successfully, I may say) but Garvey's tech is real.Firefly's and Relativity's and other company's tech is real as well. Not sure how launching undersized, non representative tanks 2000 feet off the ground without any guidance gives them a "much better" chance than the other outfits there. IMO, it's the same rockets that Garvey has been launching a decade ago, just with big scaffolding. edit: as a comparison, Exos's SARGE reached 28 km altitude.
Nah. There's 0 chance Firefly or Relativity get anything in orbit before Vector. Vector now has enough money to get ex-Spacex and Virgin from the local talent. Vector also has had guided rockets for a while now. Firefly is somewhat screwed getting people to Austin, sketchy funding, Boeing/Lockheed executives, etc. And Relativity is a 3D printing company that may or may not build a rocket.
Quote from: brussell on 12/19/2018 07:42 pmNah. There's 0 chance Firefly or Relativity get anything in orbit before Vector. Vector now has enough money to get ex-Spacex and Virgin from the local talent. Vector also has had guided rockets for a while now. Firefly is somewhat screwed getting people to Austin, sketchy funding, Boeing/Lockheed executives, etc. And Relativity is a 3D printing company that may or may not build a rocket.0 chance? Wow, you are really bullish on Vector. Do you have any inside information to build that point of view? Because in my view based on what we have seen, Vector only slightly more credible than ARCA. Their "block 0" launches have been far from impressive (and not guided), and weren't they supposed to have orbital flights by this past summer? Vector is much hype and mock-ups, but they don't have much real to show for it. No, I see Firefly as far more capable than Vector. Their engine test program alone is leaps ahead.
I personally put EXOS farther ahead because as an integrated launch system it is nearly complete with its test program and ready to go operational.
Quote from: RDMM2081 on 12/19/2018 09:44 pmI personally put EXOS farther ahead because as an integrated launch system it is nearly complete with its test program and ready to go operational.For orbital launch?
Quote from: Lars-J on 12/19/2018 08:45 pmQuote from: brussell on 12/19/2018 07:42 pmNah. There's 0 chance Firefly or Relativity get anything in orbit before Vector. Vector now has enough money to get ex-Spacex and Virgin from the local talent. Vector also has had guided rockets for a while now. Firefly is somewhat screwed getting people to Austin, sketchy funding, Boeing/Lockheed executives, etc. And Relativity is a 3D printing company that may or may not build a rocket.0 chance? Wow, you are really bullish on Vector. Do you have any inside information to build that point of view? Because in my view based on what we have seen, Vector only slightly more credible than ARCA. Their "block 0" launches have been far from impressive (and not guided), and weren't they supposed to have orbital flights by this past summer? Vector is much hype and mock-ups, but they don't have much real to show for it. No, I see Firefly as far more capable than Vector. Their engine test program alone is leaps ahead.Vector has been doing engine test fires as well. Check out their Twitter feed sometime.
Cantrell was talking about getting rockets shipped to Kodiak this season, but now they're apparently launching from some amateur rocket site in California to under 10,000 feet. Have I missed something?