Virgin Galactic have announced they will start regularly flying paying customers next year.
The space policy threads will still be dominated by arguments over SLS, even though the program was phased out years before.
Quote from: eric z on 04/27/2022 06:15 pm The space policy threads will still be dominated by arguments over SLS, even though the program was phased out years before.I predict SLS/Orion will get 8 flights before the program ends. When Starship is flying at a tiny fraction of the cost of SLS and New Glenn gets a reusable second stage, even Congress will finally get it. I'm betting there will be an attempt to keep Orion alive by flying it on New Glenn.
By 2050, Starship will have been long retired after serving as a mainstay workhorse space vehicle. By then there will be an even larger and even more capable workhorse vehicle in service.There will be plenty of robots on Mars, even if human have only a light token presence there (most likely in orbit). The decision to use robots as an easy low-risk path to Mars exploration and colonization will have proven to be the best of all worlds, with unprecedentedly capable robots transmitting back volumes of vital data and important discoveries risk-free. AI will enable robots with extreme versatility and capabilities. There will be surface exploration at the Martian poles, and even the Martian underground.The human presence on the Moon will be greater, through a permanent continually-staffed Moonbase. Flights to the Moon will be as routine as flights to LEO are today. With the ISS long gone, the Moonbase will be the new routine destination for manned flights. Lunar surface EVAs will be common. But manned missions to Mars will still be a relatively novel and more expeditionary thing.There will be at least a half-dozen launch providers among private companies, in addition to various govt space agencies.
Ecological collapse will have ended all manned space programs.
Quote from: ThereIWas3 on 06/02/2022 08:09 pmEcological collapse will have ended all manned space programs.They told me in school in the late 80's the NYC would be under 7 ft of water by 2000.
We’d have a hard time building an efficient new city of a million people from scratch on Earth in that time frame.
Quote from: Eric Hedman on 04/22/2022 10:23 pmWe’d have a hard time building an efficient new city of a million people from scratch on Earth in that time frame.Shenzhen's population grew from 59k in 1980 to 1.1M in 1991, that's just 11 years. People only have a hard time imagining this because they thought everybody else on Earth is as mired in regulation hell as the west, not so I can tell you, once you threw red tapes out of the window, humans can do remarkable things in a short time.
Do you think SLS and Orion will have any significant role in building Moon base or even Mars.?I could see maybe 2-3 moon SLS trips, since Elon focus is Mars and Moon is just test bed.But Mars will be private enterpise supported by richest peron on the world.
This is going to end shortly because all the "economic" oil has been tapped. It is rapidly getting to the point where it takes more than one barrel worth of energy to extract a barrel of oil from the ground.
Each year on this site we do predictions for the following year. While I like taking part in that, I think predictions for where the space industry will be by December 31, 2050 might be more interesting.Elon Musk has predicted he will have a million people on Mars by 2050. As much as I like what SpaceX is doing, I don’t believe the million people for a second ...Why 2050? It’s the year Musk made his predictions for Mars. ... Predict away. I think the responses should be interesting. I’m working on my predictions.
No life found on any moon or planet or anywhere else in the universe
No. I deal with people in oil exploration. They tell me there is plenty of oil and we are nowhere near peak oil. The technology they have developed is absolutely amazing as they keep finding better ways to extract oil from multiple types of geological structures. The Permian Basin has plenty of oil available for the foreseeable future that does not require anywhere near the energy you claim it does to get it out.
Quote from: vapour_nudge on 04/23/2022 01:12 amNo life found on any moon or planet or anywhere else in the universeWhile absense of evidence is not evidence of absence, I think you're correct.
Predictions 2050* SpaceX Mothership is demonstrated with its first suborbital launch. The 1 km wide mothership achieves 60,000 ft altitude, then extends actuated batwing flaps to a controlled descent. Once it arrives 500 feet above the ground, it hovers and beams power to a fleet of eighteen wheeler Tesla trucks before firing plasma engines for landing. Future funding is approved.* Astronauts begin training for Mars by installing Neuralink implants to endure the hardships of a long space journey. Most astronauts enjoy Neuralink as it allows them to sleep on a sofa in the office while working 85 hours a week with minimal exhaustion. All astronauts enjoy collecting rocks from their driveways throughout the week to extract essential oils as well as vital minerals nutrients.* Drama ensues after legislation is signed into law that allows for the NASA Administrator to marry the Director of the Space Force. The prenuptial agreement gives Space Force half of the centers if the marriage fails or is not consummated.* Due to popular demand, all future launch vehicles will be equipped with extra quantities of conical shape charges. This will provide greater Hollywood level special effects during flight anomalies and emergency landing operations. Michael Bay provides technical consulting to NASA’s management via Neuralink.* Neuralink Astronauts land on the Moon and is broadcast to many citizens on Earth with Neuralink-Starlink-Twitter interfaces in their autonomous Teslas while they drive to their central telework centers. * Global warming determined to be an effect from microbes onboard meteors that activate upon arrival to Earth. The microbes consume enormous amounts energy, which causes more carbon emissions, and then the increase in temperature.* Uranus is downgraded from “a planet”.* Congressional politicians from the Neuralink party increase NASAs budget to 100% GDP.* After taking vitamin supplements derived from jellyfish, several Hollywood actors change their Neuralinked connected minds to decide to fly to the planet Mars.* Superior beings from space (aka aliens) deliver abducted humans back to Earth. The humans are startled by the global chaos as well as lack of human spaceflight exploration progress since the 1970s and ask to return to space.* NASASpaceFlight Forum provides a Troll button next to the Like button.* Movie of the year: Trolls 57 - Neuralink Unicorn Paradise
6) Astronomers should not be in unions.