Author Topic: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis  (Read 398107 times)

Offline Jimmy_C

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #640 on: 07/27/2018 05:27 pm »
According to the latest plans ( before the coming announcement) NASA is expecting Boeing to fly first, so crew announced for Boeing would fly first. But what if issues like the propellant leak delay Boeing and SpaceX is first, so that crew would go to the Station first. It would seem prudent to train all 4 astronauts on both vehicles, so they have flexibility on crew assignments.


Not to mention, are they the backup crew for each other? If not, who is being trained to be the backup crew?

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #641 on: 07/27/2018 10:00 pm »
According to the latest plans ( before the coming announcement) NASA is expecting Boeing to fly first, so crew announced for Boeing would fly first. But what if issues like the propellant leak delay Boeing and SpaceX is first, so that crew would go to the Station first. It would seem prudent to train all 4 astronauts on both vehicles, so they have flexibility on crew assignments.

Bit of friendly advice: don't put any stock in what any publicly released launch dates say regarding who flies first.  They're all still NET dates at best.  The answer won't be clear until you get much closer to the actual launch date.

IMHO Believe the launch date when they slip by no more than 1 month a month before launch. Even then there is an error of a week due to problem with the weather.

Offline erioladastra

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #642 on: 07/28/2018 06:54 pm »
I hope they will be able to give us at least expected dates for Boeing/SpaceX flights 1 and 2, rather than the placeholders that have been published.

Hope all you want, but they clearly excluded what everyone wants to know.
How significant is which of the four astronauts gets assigned to which of the vehicles? 
Some of us have preferences.  In the end, though, we are much more interested in the vehicles. 
This appears to be another attempt to convey a sense of progress without anything really happening.

NASA can't afford to waste crew time training if too far away and of course can't be late in starting training if the crews are to be ready.  So it is a balance.  A difficult balance.  There is definitely a lot of progress and that tells you where NASA sees it as best as the crystal ball will allow. 

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #643 on: 07/30/2018 06:29 pm »
Great status update article Chris G, thank you! :)
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Online rockets4life97

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #644 on: 07/30/2018 06:34 pm »
The certification process outlined in the article from the ASAP meeting makes it sound to me like NASA hasn't been involved in the design of the providers vehicles. I thought NASA and been involved and kept informed about every aspect of the design. Is this not the case? It seems to me that NASA shouldn't want to fly crew on a test flight unless they were confident in the design. So, what am I missing here?

Offline ChrisGebhardt

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #645 on: 07/30/2018 07:04 pm »
The certification process outlined in the article from the ASAP meeting makes it sound to me like NASA hasn't been involved in the design of the providers vehicles. I thought NASA and been involved and kept informed about every aspect of the design. Is this not the case? It seems to me that NASA shouldn't want to fly crew on a test flight unless they were confident in the design. So, what am I missing here?

Not sure where you're getting that from the article.  NASA has been deeply involved from the very beginning.  But NASA - not SpaceX and Boeing - is the final Certification Authority for both Dragon and Starliner.  Even though NASA's been involved since the beginning, they are still the final "yes"/"no" authority -- and with that comes the final presentation of evidence and data to back up that Dragon and Starliner meet the CCP requirements.

Online rockets4life97

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #646 on: 07/31/2018 01:01 pm »
The certification process outlined in the article from the ASAP meeting makes it sound to me like NASA hasn't been involved in the design of the providers vehicles. I thought NASA and been involved and kept informed about every aspect of the design. Is this not the case? It seems to me that NASA shouldn't want to fly crew on a test flight unless they were confident in the design. So, what am I missing here?

Not sure where you're getting that from the article.  NASA has been deeply involved from the very beginning.  But NASA - not SpaceX and Boeing - is the final Certification Authority for both Dragon and Starliner.  Even though NASA's been involved since the beginning, they are still the final "yes"/"no" authority -- and with that comes the final presentation of evidence and data to back up that Dragon and Starliner meet the CCP requirements.

Thanks for responding, Chris. The quote from the article that instigated my question was this one:

Quote
“This could be measurements, it can be test data, it can be analysis, but it almost always involves the submittal of detailed technical data, not simply paper descriptions or forms.  Sometimes it involves witness testing and sometimes it involves physical inspection. But it almost always wraps around important technical submittals."

It seemed to move that the hardware should be inspected and the technical data reviewed prior to the demonstration flights. But this quote makes it seem like there is going to be loads of new technical data submitted afterward for the final certification. Maybe my timeline is off, and certification is an on-going process. I thought the quote was in reference to the final certification process which is still in the future. 

Offline gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #647 on: 07/31/2018 01:23 pm »
There will definitely be new data to analyze after each test flight, and NASA will almost certainly still be working through the mountain of pre-flight certification data when the uncrewed missions fly.

Online rockets4life97

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #648 on: 07/31/2018 04:17 pm »
There will definitely be new data to analyze after each test flight, and NASA will almost certainly still be working through the mountain of pre-flight certification data when the uncrewed missions fly.

Yes, my surprise is that NASA would allow the demonstration flights even while they haven't worked through the mountain of pre-flight certification data. It all seems rather post-hoc to me.

Offline ChrisGebhardt

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #649 on: 07/31/2018 07:20 pm »
There will definitely be new data to analyze after each test flight, and NASA will almost certainly still be working through the mountain of pre-flight certification data when the uncrewed missions fly.

Yes, my surprise is that NASA would allow the demonstration flights even while they haven't worked through the mountain of pre-flight certification data. It all seems rather post-hoc to me.

Ah, I see where the confusion is.  NASA is not "allow[ing] the demonstration flights even while they haven't worked through the mountain of pre-flight certification data."

It's a rolling processing, with certain elements requiring a great deal of systems level certification before the uncrewed demos, then others having to be certified before the crew demos (some systems don't have to be crew-level certified for the uncrewed demos - i.e. the short-term Merlin engine fix that is cleared for flight on SpX Dm-1 but not yet cleared for flight on the crewed DM-2), and then the entire integrated system is reviewed and receives final certified before the PCMs begin.

They aren't allowing things to fly uncertified just because they haven't gotten to the data review.  That's not how that works.  Some things - based on the mountain of reviewed and approved data - will fly before final integrated system certification because you have to fly everything as part of the validation/final certification process to show that it all works as the data indicates it will.  Part of this is with a crew in the loop, interacting with the systems.

And that's exactly the process we're seeing play out, and it's exactly the process outlined by ASAP and reported in the article.

NASA has not been sitting around not doing any certifications for years as the data and designs have poured in from the 2 providers.  Certification has - and continues to be - a rolling process.

But end-game certification is coming.  By necessity this will include a review of data already reviewed and approved and a review of systems already certified for flight (i.e. the ECLSS - life support).

Certification is not a one fell swoop and everything's certified process.  It's a rolling process that NASA has been deeply invested in for years with SpaceX and Boeing.
« Last Edit: 07/31/2018 07:24 pm by ChrisGebhardt »

Offline whitelancer64

Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #650 on: 07/31/2018 08:35 pm »
There will definitely be new data to analyze after each test flight, and NASA will almost certainly still be working through the mountain of pre-flight certification data when the uncrewed missions fly.

Yes, my surprise is that NASA would allow the demonstration flights even while they haven't worked through the mountain of pre-flight certification data. It all seems rather post-hoc to me.

IIRC, the final milestone for the parachutes on SpaceX's crew capsule is deployment after a return from orbit.

So for that particular certification they have to have flown the demonstration mission for it to be completed. There may be other subsystems with a similar requirement.
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Offline Rebel44

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #651 on: 08/01/2018 12:33 pm »
Irene Klotz - Space Editor, Aviation Week & Space Technology
‏@Free_Space


Quote
Boeing Starliner launch abort motor leak traced to faulty valves. Four of 8 stuck open following 1.5-sec hot-fire of service module test article June 2.  While repair underway, Boeing moving ahead w/ unmanned flight test in 5-6 mos, then launch abort & crew flight tests mid-2019
https://twitter.com/Free_Space/status/1024480708792922114
« Last Edit: 08/01/2018 12:38 pm by Rebel44 »

Offline cebri

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #652 on: 08/01/2018 12:41 pm »
So, according to Klotz:

- NET Jan. '19 -> Uncrewed test
- NET June '19 -> Crewed test

Also relevant, from GAO's report from July.



Things are getting ugly for NASA.
« Last Edit: 08/01/2018 12:42 pm by cebri »
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Offline whitelancer64

Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #653 on: 08/01/2018 05:57 pm »
So, according to Klotz:

- NET Jan. '19 -> Uncrewed test
- NET June '19 -> Crewed test

Also relevant, from GAO's report from July.



Things are getting ugly for NASA.

It's worth noting that that's the gap for certification, not necessarily for crew rotation flights. Almost certainly one or the other or perhaps even both Boeing and SpaceX will fly waiver'd crew rotations.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline speedevil

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #654 on: 08/01/2018 09:14 pm »
It's worth noting that that's the gap for certification, not necessarily for crew rotation flights. Almost certainly one or the other or perhaps even both Boeing and SpaceX will fly waiver'd crew rotations.

Also, crew rotation is desirable, but not actually mandatory is it?
In principle, they could pack extra cargo into uncertified crew, though of course it would be a waste.

Offline Comga

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #655 on: 08/01/2018 09:32 pm »
It's worth noting that that's the gap for certification, not necessarily for crew rotation flights. Almost certainly one or the other or perhaps even both Boeing and SpaceX will fly waiver'd crew rotations.

Also, crew rotation is desirable, but not actually mandatory is it?
In principle, they could pack extra cargo into uncertified crew, though of course it would be a waste.

Is it the issue more “lifeboats”, craft for the crew to ride down, than who’s on orbit for how long?
According to the chart the end of November, 16 months from now, is the last chance to keep an American on board the US station with a seat home on a Soyuz.

If neither Boeing or SpaceX is certified by thatvdate, the choice will be between abandoning the ISS and flying rotations in uncertified craft.

Tough choice for some groups
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #656 on: 08/01/2018 09:35 pm »
Tweets from Eric Berger:
Quote
On call with @BoeingSpace's John Mulholland. He says Starliner on track for late 2018/early 2019 uncrewed flight test. Crew flight test should come mid-2019.
...
More from Mulholland: Looking at other rockets that could launch Starliner, especially Vulcan. Launch tower designed to account for Vulcan's larger size.
...
One effect of the service module hot fire anomaly is that Boeing will now conduct the pad abort test after the first uncrewed test of Starliner. So:

Uncrewed flight test end of '18/'19
Pad abort test Spring 2019
Crewed flight test mid-2019

Tweet from Emre Kelly:
Quote
Boeing update on Starliner anomaly: Happened during simulated low-altitude abort burn. All four engines were nominal until shutdown 1.5 seconds later; several valves failed to close, causing the leak. Boeing's Mulholland confident confident in corrective actions.

Tweet from Irene Klotz:
Quote
seems pretty straightforward change -- also plan to change downstream valve start position to avoid initial surge. Test was designed to check how system worked and apparently a slight tweak or two needed. Boeing clear this wouldn't show up during single-engine test

Offline speedevil

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #657 on: 08/01/2018 10:05 pm »
Is it the issue more “lifeboats”, craft for the crew to ride down, than who’s on orbit for how long?
According to the chart the end of November, 16 months from now, is the last chance to keep an American on board the US station with a seat home on a Soyuz.

If neither Boeing or SpaceX is certified by thatvdate, the choice will be between abandoning the ISS and flying rotations in uncertified craft.

Tough choice for some groups

Partial certifications (for deorbit only) would in principle allow evacuation, but not of course rotation.

Offline Alexphysics

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #658 on: 08/02/2018 01:21 am »
The Soyuz flights were extended, the last purchased Soyuz returns in January 2020, the GAO report didn't include that new extension of the flights. NASA has tried everything to keep those Soyuz flight as far into the future as possible and Roscosmos agreed on that and has streched out the coming Soyuz flights to the limit of 6 and a half months in orbit.

Offline yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #659 on: 08/02/2018 04:18 am »
Dates for SpaceX from sources:

Quote from: teslarati
Crew Dragon’s official uncrewed demonstration debut (DM-1) and perhaps the crewed demonstration follow-on mission (DM-2) will likely have real launch dates announced later this week in an August 3 NASA press conference. Reliable sources have pegged those dates around October-December for DM-1 and 3-6 months later for DM-2.
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-bfr-mars-landing-site-2020/

 

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