Author Topic: Soyuz-2.1v - Kosmos 2568 (EO MKA#4?) - Plesetsk - 29 March 2023 (19:57 UTC)  (Read 14636 times)

Offline B. Hendrickx

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https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=26990.2480

edit by mod: should read:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=26990.msg2468243#msg2468243

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A1703/23 - TEMPO DANGER AREA  'RUSSIAN MISSILE MAR/APRIL 2023' ESTABLISHED.
PSN: 755900N 0212600E - 755000N 0220500E - 753500N 0224700E - 752100N
0225200E - 751500N 0221300E - 752400N 0212900E - 753600N 0205100E -
755300N 0204300E - (755900N 0212600E). IMPACT AREA FOR RUSSIAN
MISSILES. GND - UNL, DAILY 1900-2100, 29 MAR 19:00 2023 UNTIL 03 APR 21:00 2023.
CREATED: 21 MAR 06:07 2023

These are the coordinates for the impact zone of the payload fairing of a Soyuz-2.1v. So it looks like we have a Soyuz-2.1a or Soyuz-2.1b launch coming up on March 23 (possibly with Bars-M N°4 or another imaging satellite) and a Soyuz-2.1v on March 29. This could carry EO MKA N°4 (which on a Russian spaceflight forum was rumored to be set for launch this month), but something else is also possible.
« Last Edit: 03/30/2023 10:11 am by input~2 »

Offline Vahe231991

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I'm not sure why today's newest Russian space launch was mistakenly speculated in some posts on this forum to involve a Soyuz-2.1v before it was carried out, but you were pretty spot on when you pointed out that the coordinates given in the NOTAM for March 23 were consistent with those announced for previous Soyuz-2.1a and Soyuz-2.1b launches.

Offline Alter Sachse

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I'm not sure why today's newest Russian space launch was mistakenly speculated in some posts on this forum to involve a Soyuz-2.1v before it was carried out, but you were pretty spot on when you pointed out that the coordinates given in the NOTAM for March 23 were consistent with those announced for previous Soyuz-2.1a and Soyuz-2.1b launches.
There were rumors about a 2.1v launch.
Now it seems that this launch will take place March 29th.
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Offline B. Hendrickx

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A NOTAM has been released for the impact zone of the first stage. The coordinates perfectly correspond to those for earlier Soyuz-2-1v launches, so there's virtually no doubt left that this is the booster that will be flying on March 29.

Offline B. Hendrickx

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The NOTAM window for the launch (19.00-21.00 UTC) coincides with passes over Plesetsk by the Kosmos-2561/2562 pair launched last October as well as Kosmos-2558, the satellite orbiting in the same plane as USA 326.

Robert Christy on Seesat:

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This is a Soyuz-2 1v - I estimate launch time as 19:40 UTC +/- 20 min.
It's aimed towards sun-synchronous orbit with LTDN 11:00 - 11:30.
There is a possibility that it is intended to match the orbit plane occupied by Cosmos 2561 & 2562, launched 2022 Oct 21, see: https://www.orbitalfocus.uk/2022#137

Nico Janssen on Seesat:

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A Kosmos reconnaissance satellite is to be launched on 2023-03-29 from Plesetsk, probably between 20:00 and 21:00 UTC.

Interestingly, it looks like this Kosmos will be launched into the orbit plane of Kosmos 2558, and therefore also the orbit plane of USA 326. USA 326 will pass overhead Plesetsk at around 20:22 UTC.

Apparently Kosmos 2558 (53323, 22089A) will get some assistance from another 'Inspektor' satellite for further inspection of USA 326 (51445, 22009A).

To which Robert Christy responded on Twitter:

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Convention with Plesetsk NOTAMs is that lift off occurs within the first 60 mins when the window is two hours long. This 'rule' is unbroken since 2014. A 19:00-21:00 NOTAM points to lift off 19:00-20:00. It doesn't rule out 20:25 but…
Beware of wishful thinking!


We'll have to wait and see whether there is a connection with either of these missions or if this is just a coincidence.

Offline B. Hendrickx

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https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/17402341

TASS confirms liftoff at 19.57 UTC.

Offline B. Hendrickx

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https://tass.ru/kosmos/17402597

Orbit insertion confirmed and stable telemetry being received. As expected, the satellite is called Kosmos-2568. No mention of a Volga upper stage in the report.

Offline smoliarm

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Interfax - DoD confirms success:
https://www.interfax.ru/russia/893556

Quote
"В расчетное время космический аппарат выведен на целевую орбиту и принят на управление. С космическим аппаратом установлена и поддерживается устойчивая телеметрическая связь"

Google Translation:
"At the estimated time, the spacecraft was launched into the target orbit and accepted for control. A stable telemetry connection was established and maintained with the spacecraft"

Offline John Santos

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Kosmos 2568 launched 4 minutes before Starlink 5-10, so both were enroute to orbit at the same time.  I think this is the first time this has ever happened.

Offline B. Hendrickx

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The Volga wasn't mentioned either in the official reports on the Kosmos-2561/2562 launch last October (the latest Soyuz-2-1v launch with the upper stage), so it's too early to conclude that today's launch didn't carry the upper stage. We'll just have to wait for the TLEs to find out. It'll also be interesting to see if there is any connection between this mission and Kosmos-2558 or Kosmos-2562, whose orbital planes were close to Plesetsk at the time of launch.

Offline Conexion Espacial

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Kosmos 2568 launched 4 minutes before Starlink 5-10, so both were enroute to orbit at the same time.  I think this is the first time this has ever happened.
HII-A (GCOM-C & SLATS) (01:26 UTC) and Falcon 9 (Iridium-4) (01:27 UTC) hold the record on December 23, 2017.
59-second difference between the two liftoffs
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Offline B. Hendrickx

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Robert Christy on Twitter:

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Cosmos 2568
Mar 29, 19:57 UTC
Soyuz-2 1V
Plesetsk SC

Launch time of day similar to Cosmos 2560, 2555 & 2551 - all of them re-entered naturally after a few weeks without orbital manoeuvres.

LTDN ~19:37

Perhaps another indication that the payload is indeed EO MKA nr. 4, as was reported by an apparent insider on a Russian spaceflight forum earlier this month.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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https://twitter.com/tgmetsfan98/status/1641206790762254345

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Just minutes before SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 from Cape Canaveral, Russia launched a Soyuz-2.1v from Plesetsk carrying a classified payload.

Article by Justin Mooney (@OGNovuh):

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2023/03/kosmos-2568/

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1641254626262667266

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CelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2023-045) of COSMOS 2568 atop a Soyuz-2.1v rocket from Plesetsk Cosmodrome on Mar 29 at 1957 UTC: tass.com/russia/1596345. Data for the launch can be found at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-045

Offline Vahe231991

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https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1641254626262667266

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CelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2023-045) of COSMOS 2568 atop a Soyuz-2.1v rocket from Plesetsk Cosmodrome on Mar 29 at 1957 UTC: tass.com/russia/1596345. Data for the launch can be found at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-045
The orbital parameters for the Kosmos 2568 are similar to those for the Kosmos 2555, furthering corroborating the probable ID of Kosmos 2568 as EO MKA 4.
« Last Edit: 03/30/2023 02:26 pm by Vahe231991 »

Offline Conexion Espacial

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Offline russianhalo117

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https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1641254626262667266

Quote
CelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2023-045) of COSMOS 2568 atop a Soyuz-2.1v rocket from Plesetsk Cosmodrome on Mar 29 at 1957 UTC: tass.com/russia/1596345. Data for the launch can be found at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2023-045
The orbital parameters for the Kosmos 2568 are similar to those for the Kosmos 2555, furthering corroborating the probable ID of Kosmos 2568 as EMKA 4.
Do not confuse EMKA series with EO MKA series.

Offline russianhalo117

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The Volga wasn't mentioned either in the official reports on the Kosmos-2561/2562 launch last October (the latest Soyuz-2-1v launch with the upper stage), so it's too early to conclude that today's launch didn't carry the upper stage. We'll just have to wait for the TLEs to find out. It'll also be interesting to see if there is any connection between this mission and Kosmos-2558 or Kosmos-2562, whose orbital planes were close to Plesetsk at the time of launch.
Anatoly Zak's removed from his article information about Volga that his contacts have quickly retracted  post launch the indication of the Volga upper stage on this flight rather clarifying there is more than one 2.1v presently at the cosmodrome which was also retracted for stating to much. This might have caused earlier confusion.
« Last Edit: 03/30/2023 04:42 am by russianhalo117 »

Offline Satori

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Some screen grabs from Russian MoD launch video...

Offline Satori

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A few more...

Offline input~2

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The orbital parameters for the Kosmos 2568 are similar to those for the Kosmos 2555, furthering corroborating the probable ID of Kosmos 2568 as EMKA 4.

They are closer to the initial orbital parameters for Kosmos-2560 (2022-135A) aka EO MKA#3

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Here's the launch video itself.



Offline B. Hendrickx

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Do not confuse EMKA series with EO MKA series.

Good point. There is indeed a lot of confusion over EMKA and EO MKA in news reports. In fact, the two are totally unrelated. 

EMKA (“experimental small satellite”) was the name given to Kosmos-2525, an experimental optical reconnaissance satellite of the VNIIEM Corporation launched in March 2018. In documentation it is also referred to as Razdan-N. It made numerous orbit corrections before re-entering in April 2021. It is probably the only satellite of this type that will ever be launched. It was likely the experimental precursor of Razbeg, a new series of small optical reconnaissance satellites of VNIIEM. The first three may be launched together on a Soyuz-2 later this year. They could be similar or identical to Khayyam, the satellite that Russia built for Iran.

EO MKA (which presumably stands for “protype of a small satellite”) is the name associated with Kosmos-2551, 2555 and 2560, which all re-entered after several weeks without making any maneuvers. The design bureau is rumored to be CNIIHM and the manufacturer is said to be a company with no earlier involvement in the space program. Nothing is known for sure about their purpose and they defy all logical explanation. One poster on the NK forum claimed they are used as targets for the Peresvet anti-satellite laser system, but that this is only a secondary mission objective. Since the Russians have now spent four boosters on apparent prototype satellites in just one and a half years (two Soyuz-2-1v and two Angara-1.2 rockets), one can only conclude they must be doing something very important. It could also be another sign that many “regular” satellites are grounded due to a lack of electronic components as a result of the sanctions.

Offline Alter Sachse

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launch time 19:57:02
One day you're a hero  next day you're a clown  there's nothing that is in between
        Jeff Lynne - "21century man"

Offline Nicolas PILLET

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EO MKA (which presumably stands for “protype of a small satellite”) is the name associated with Kosmos-2551, 2555 and 2560

And Kosmos-2561 and 2562, isn't it ?
Nicolas PILLET
Kosmonavtika : The French site on Russian Space

Offline B. Hendrickx

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EO MKA (which presumably stands for “protype of a small satellite”) is the name associated with Kosmos-2551, 2555 and 2560

And Kosmos-2561 and 2562, isn't it ?

Three differences:
-two satellites (and not identical: 14F164 and 14F172)
-launched into a higher orbit (using a Volga upper stage)
-both have made small maneuvers (Kosmos-2561 just one)

Based on that, they seem to be of a different type than EO MKA. As I have explained in the Kosmos-2561/2562 thread, my best guess is that they're part of Numizmat, but there's little evidence to back that up. 

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Video of roll-out and launch:


Offline russianhalo117

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Video of roll-out and launch:


There is a serial number shown during departure from the MIK. I was unable to read due to light glare, camera angle and distance.

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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There is a serial number shown during departure from the MIK. I was unable to read due to light glare, camera angle and distance.

This was the best I could make out from the 1080p video. Maybe someone can make sense out of it.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Any connection between Kosmos-2568 and Kosmos-2558 or Kosmos-2561/2562 can now be definitively ruled out.

Nico Janssen on Seesat:

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Kosmos 2568 (56091, 2023-045A) was launched from Plesetsk on 2023-03-29 at 19:57 UTC. Its orbit plane appears to be 8.7 degrees from the plane of Kosmos 2558 and USA 326. So apparently it is not to be expected to get involved in inspections of USA 326.

Also, its orbit plane is 4.2 degrees from the plane of Kosmos 2562, so it also appears to be unrelated to that Kosmos (and Kosmos 2561).

Offline B. Hendrickx

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For several months it looked like Kosmos-2568 would follow the same mission profile as the three earlier EO MKA satellites (Kosmos-2551, 2555, 2560), slowly decaying without performing any orbit corrections. However, that pattern abruptly changed on August 9, by which time its orbit had decayed to roughly 287x300 km. Since then the satellite has clearly been performing minor burns to counter further decay (see the graph from Celestrak). It is currently being tracked in a 287x298 km orbit. The orbit corrections have been very minor. The most significant one thus far took place on August 14, when it lowered its perigee and raised its apogee by roughly one kilometer. There may also have been some small tweaks in late June/mid-July, but the data for those is less convincing. 

So Kosmos-2568 clearly has some kind of thruster system. The question is why it was not activated until more than four months into its mission and why its three predecessors did not maneuver. 

I was able to make several visual observations of Kosmos-2568 in June and early July. On most passes it was a relatively bright naked-eye object, reaching magnitude +2.5-3.0 (somewhat fainter than Polaris, the North Star). I had two more opportunities to see it in early August, but by that time the observing conditions were much less favorable (it came out of the Earth’s shadow much later) and I could no longer see it with the naked eye. There are no more visible passes from the northern hemisphere now. 

At its brightest, it was about the same magnitude as a Soyuz or Progress, but since it was launched by a Soyuz-2-1v, it must be significantly smaller. This would indicate it has a quite reflective surface (Soyuz/Progress, on the other hand, have dark thermal insulation). If it is really an “MKA” (a Russian acronym for “small satellite”), then by the Russian definition of that term it should be no heavier than about 1 ton. In theory it could be twice as heavy though. According to data from RKTs Progress, the Soyuz-2-1v (without the Volga upper stage) has a payload capacity of 2.43 tons to a 200 km, 98.7° orbit from Plesetsk.
 
       

 

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