Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION  (Read 1087697 times)

Online AnalogMan

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #840 on: 02/24/2016 08:45 pm »
OK, please help. 

Can't seem to find the link to the live video stream of this launch here at NSF.  I've tried quick search of this and other SES-9 threads for terms like: Video, Stream, Link, Live, Feed, etc. with no luck.

Somehow I must be overlooking the obvious.

Thanks!

Posted earlier:

For those who prefer  good old links

technical webcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HSb_yBnJXA&feature=youtu.be

Full webcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ml1RO4IcOG0&feature=youtu.be


Offline jaufgang

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #841 on: 02/24/2016 09:43 pm »
The launch time for this flight is just a few minutes after the end of "civil twilight" and the beginning of "nautical twilight," meaning the center of the sun will be just about 6° below the horizon and there will be a very small amount of residual sunlight in the sky.  (see http://www.timeanddate.com/astronomy/usa/cape-canaveral)

With the skies looking clear in the area I'm guessing/hoping this could result in some interesting lighting effects, causing the launch to look different from some of the other nighttime launches where the sky was pitch black.  What would be amazing is if the the fuselage and the rocket trail manage to catch some illumination from the sun causing them to glow as it rises against the dark sky, especially at higher altitudes.

Does anyone know if this is likely, or will the sun be to far below the horizon at that point for this to happen?  Maybe 10-15 minutes earlier would have made it more likely, in the middle of civil twilight?

edit:  Here's a website with some fantastic photos of rocket trails at twilight: http://scribol.com/science/space/rocket-trails-at-twilight-illuminate-the-sky.  Hoping we'll see some of this tonight.
« Last Edit: 02/24/2016 09:51 pm by jaufgang »

Offline Lee Jay

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #842 on: 02/24/2016 10:19 pm »
If the rocket and spacecraft are healthy, and they scrubbed anyway, doesn't that just leave GSE and weather?

Offline sewebster

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #843 on: 02/24/2016 10:22 pm »
If the rocket and spacecraft are healthy, and they scrubbed anyway, doesn't that just leave GSE and weather?

Also possibly things related to ASDS.

Offline OxCartMark

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #844 on: 02/24/2016 10:23 pm »
Does anyone know if this is likely, or will the sun be to far below the horizon at that point for this to happen?  Maybe 10-15 minutes earlier would have made it more likely, in the middle of civil twilight?

I believe that DSCOVR was launched just a few minutes earlier in the day but after 6pm on Feb 11th 2015 and into clear skies so take a look at what happened there and it isn't much of a jump to what we're going to see today.  ...Other than today we're launching a much more immovable object using a 30% more irresistable force.

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Offline Jim

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #845 on: 02/24/2016 10:24 pm »
If the rocket and spacecraft are healthy, and they scrubbed anyway, doesn't that just leave GSE and weather?

Also possibly things related to ASDS.

Don't scrub for that when there is a chance that landing is not a given

Offline Chris Bergin

If the rocket and spacecraft are healthy, and they scrubbed anyway, doesn't that just leave GSE and weather?

Also possibly things related to ASDS.

They'd never scrub for the ASDS. Not a primary objective. Customer first.
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Offline mn

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #847 on: 02/24/2016 10:24 pm »
If the rocket and spacecraft are healthy, and they scrubbed anyway, doesn't that just leave GSE and weather?

I think it just means they are not ready to tell us why (surprise surprise). 'healthy' doesn't mean there wasn't a problem that led them to decide to scrub, (nor does it mean there was a problem).

And just to add another 2 cents, if it was weather they would likely have said that.
« Last Edit: 02/24/2016 10:26 pm by mn »

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #848 on: 02/24/2016 10:26 pm »
From the UPDATES Thread
Updated status: Static Fire aiming for Monday. Launch Wednesday.

That's only two days from static fire to launch.
Using the SpaceX Scrubs Thread as the reference, the historical record of that interval is:

Falcon 9 Flight Number     
  1   2   3   4   5    6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21
Stat Fire to Launch Days 
83   4   ?    8   5  10   7   8  10   3   6   15   4  22   11   6    3    5    2   3  >2
(snip)

No two day interval this time.
This could be through no fault of the vehicle or payload.

swebster: It is unlikely they would hold the launch for the landing.  This is not Orbcomm, and the probability of a successful landing is said to be low in any case and they are making efforts to get this payload on orbit sooner. 

edit: grammar
« Last Edit: 02/24/2016 10:27 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline GalacticIntruder

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #849 on: 02/24/2016 10:28 pm »
Monte Carlo again?
"And now the Sun will fade, All we are is all we made." Breaking Benjamin

Offline sewebster

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #850 on: 02/24/2016 10:29 pm »
If the rocket and spacecraft are healthy, and they scrubbed anyway, doesn't that just leave GSE and weather?

Also possibly things related to ASDS.

They'd never scrub for the ASDS. Not a primary objective. Customer first.

But isn't that almost what they said last time?! (Orbcomm) 20% greater chance in sims or something?

Edit: just read some of the previous replies more thoroughly. I recognize this is a lower chance recovery. Not suggesting an ASDS related delay is likely, but perhaps given what they've said in the past, the chance is not 0%?
« Last Edit: 02/24/2016 10:31 pm by sewebster »

Offline Lee Jay

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #851 on: 02/24/2016 10:33 pm »
Hmmm...if it were the rocket, they wouldn't have said it was healthy.
If it was weather, they would have waited to see if it improved given the long launch window.
If it was the range, same thing - see if you can clear it during the window.
If it was GSE, see if you can fix it during the window.

Maybe they felt they needed to do some more mission assurance like trajectory, data analysis from the static fire, software, etc.

Just guessing here.  As Chris said, they stopped before prop load, and the statements are confusing as to the cause of the scrub.

I'm sure it makes sense if you understand it.

I'm going to go with "Elon has a tummy ache and didn't want to miss the launch."  Yeah, that's it.  I'm sure of it.
« Last Edit: 02/24/2016 10:33 pm by Lee Jay »

Offline the_other_Doug

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #852 on: 02/24/2016 10:38 pm »
If the rocket and spacecraft are healthy, and they scrubbed anyway, doesn't that just leave GSE and weather?

Also possibly things related to ASDS.

They'd never scrub for the ASDS. Not a primary objective. Customer first.

But isn't that almost what they said last time?! (Orbcomm) 20% greater chance in sims or something?

Edit: just read some of the previous replies more thoroughly. I recognize this is a lower chance recovery. Not suggesting an ASDS related delay is likely, but perhaps given what they've said in the past, the chance is not 0%?

If the chance was 0%, SpaceX would have declared it an expendable launch and not bothered to deploy the ASDS, I think.

As for Orbcomm, I think stage recovery on that flight was of a heightened importance to Musk personally -- I think he felt "one-upped" by Bezos and his New Shepard rocket landing, and was determined he was going to land that particular Falcon.

And, well, as long as the customer goes along with it, SpaceX can decide to launch whenever they think they have the best chance to achieve all of their objectives.  Stage recovery included.  SES is perhaps more likely to go along with that kind of thing, while NASA is probably less inclined in that direction...
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Offline treyko

Guess for SES-9 scrub: There was a high chance of weather violation, and if they went through with tanking and were then forced to scrub they wouldn't be able to rechill the propellants in time for tomorrow's window.

Offline somepitch

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #854 on: 02/24/2016 10:40 pm »
We've already seen that SpaceX will scrub based on Monte Carlo...what are the chances that SpaceX have an internal risk evaluation/threshold based on those numbers?  E.g. no single launch commit item is violated but perhaps a combination of factors leads to a scrub decision (possibly with customer input?).

Offline macpacheco

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #855 on: 02/24/2016 10:40 pm »
Current KTIX weather is certainly benign:
 KTIX 242252Z 21012KT 7SM SCT080 24/23 A2981

Current KCOF weather is a little bit iffy:
 KCOF 242157Z 23014G23KT 10SM SCT016 SCT080 25/19 A2981 RMK A02A SLP099

Gusts 23 knots (40Km/h), scattered clouds @ 1600ft and 8000ft. Clouds probably OK since its a long window (wait until there's a good juicy hole to launch) but the wind might be just outside the limits.

So, I'm really confused with the argument that LV and payload is healthy but they scrubbed, perhaps the weather is expected to worsen (usually latter in the evening = sky clears and wind moderate). Or perhaps something with the pad.

Quote
And, well, as long as the customer goes along with it, SpaceX can decide to launch whenever they think they have the best chance to achieve all of their objectives.  Stage recovery included.  SES is perhaps more likely to go along with that kind of thing, while NASA is probably less inclined in that direction...

Agreed. Customer has priority but the customer's interests might be very aligned with SpaceX interests in recovery, and a one or even two day launch delay isn't going to break the bank.
« Last Edit: 02/24/2016 10:58 pm by macpacheco »
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Offline OxCartMark

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #856 on: 02/24/2016 10:42 pm »
I think we found out during the Orbcomm2 launch that they don't have enough LOX cooling capacity to load the firestick two days in a row.  And if that's the case and if they have only two consecutive days cleared for launch and if they feel the hardware is no problemo ready to go then it would make sense to not take a chance on an iffy weather day (today) if it would kill the chances of taking a higher probability swing at it tomorrow.

_____________

Agree with the post above that they will postpone launch if the ASDS is not prepared.  Example Orbcomm2 (or was it Jason3?), and we've seen the go/no go criteria for waves and wind in the LZ.
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Offline Kabloona

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #857 on: 02/24/2016 10:45 pm »
And, well, as long as the customer goes along with it, SpaceX can decide to launch whenever they think they have the best chance to achieve all of their objectives.  Stage recovery included.  SES is perhaps more likely to go along with that kind of thing, while NASA is probably less inclined in that direction...

Yes, SES has a strong vested interest in getting this stage back if possible, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if SES agreed to postpone based on slightly better recovery odds tomorrow.

This is an unusual case where "customer first" and stage recovery are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
« Last Edit: 02/24/2016 10:49 pm by Kabloona »

Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #858 on: 02/24/2016 10:46 pm »
Was there a delay first? I saw the timer on both Youtubes go from a small value to 1:00:XX (for values of XX that I forget) a few minutes before the scrub...

Edit/Larbot: Silly human, 1 is the days digit...
« Last Edit: 02/24/2016 11:03 pm by Lar »
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Offline sewebster

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Re: SpaceX Falcon 9 FT - SES-9 - March 4, 2016 - DISCUSSION
« Reply #859 on: 02/24/2016 10:52 pm »
But isn't that almost what they said last time?! (Orbcomm) 20% greater chance in sims or something?

Edit: just read some of the previous replies more thoroughly. I recognize this is a lower chance recovery. Not suggesting an ASDS related delay is likely, but perhaps given what they've said in the past, the chance is not 0%?

If the chance was 0%, SpaceX would have declared it an expendable launch and not bothered to deploy the ASDS, I think.

Agreed, I meant "not a 0% chance that the delay was recovery related."

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