New Glenn has the advantage of a bigger fairing. They can easily dual manifest to GTO and they can launch many sats for LEO constellations.So they can take some business from FH but can in no way compete with cost of F9. Even if they sell with very little profit margin.
Quote from: guckyfan on 03/31/2018 05:25 amNew Glenn has the advantage of a bigger fairing. They can easily dual manifest to GTO and they can launch many sats for LEO constellations.So they can take some business from FH but can in no way compete with cost of F9. Even if they sell with very little profit margin.A lot F9 profit margin is needed to cover past and future R&D work. Blue has Bezos very deep pockets to fund NG R&D , so profit margin can be very low. I don't think there will be much difference in per launch cost of NG vs F9 over a booster's life. NG US will be dearer but lot more capable.
Yeah, NG can be fully reusable, which would allow it to easily compete (and undercut) Falcon 9. But that's why SpaceX is developing BFR. BFR should be able to outcompete even a fully reusable NG since it's return-to-launchsite (not a ship, which is more expensive operationally) and should be capable of faster turnaround due to landing on the launchmount. Also, the higher margin should enable a more robust heatshield and also has an integrated fairing (saves a lot), which a fully reusable NG couldn't afford for anything but LEO launches.So yeah, per-launch:Atlas V is more expensive thanexpendable F9 which is more expensive thanpartially reusable New Glenn which is more expensive thanpartially reusable F9 which is more expensive thanfully reusable New Glenn which is more expensive thanfully reusable BFR.After BFR, who knows. Blue Origin might borrow some of BFR's operational innovations for some other version of New Glenn or New Armstrong.
At this point we can't be sure that Blue will be reusing second stages before BFR flies.
Quote from: Lemurion on 04/01/2018 04:21 amAt this point we can't be sure that Blue will be reusing second stages before BFR flies.At this point we can be almost sure they won't. They haven't even announced a timeline for this reusable second stage, never mind a design, nor performance specs, while BFS has a clear design path and is much more advanced in its development. Not to mention that New Glenn with the expendable second stage is scheduled to fly to orbit the same year as BFR is, 2020.
Agreed. But I would think they'll be reusing fairings in short order.
At some point, Bezos may simply buy Musk out, or at least engage in a friendly merger...
What possible motivation could Musk have for accepting such an acquisition/merger?
Quote from: JH on 04/02/2018 04:33 amWhat possible motivation could Musk have for accepting such an acquisition/merger?Depends on what is dearer to Musk's heart, Tesla or SpaceX. Tesla is hemorrhaging money and headed for a cliff, a big infusion of cash from Bezos acquiring shares in SpaceX would keep Tesla going for a while longer. If Musk doesn't want to cede control over SpaceX, he can let Tesla go bankrupt, but his reputation will be in tatters.
Quote from: Bob Shaw on 04/02/2018 12:41 amAt some point, Bezos may simply buy Musk out, or at least engage in a friendly merger...That would, in my opinion, end the streak of innovation that SpaceX had been doing up to that point.Blue Origin is doing good work, but they don't have a sense of urgency for what they are doing, and so far they have not shown the same willingness to take risks that a Musk-led SpaceX has. Plus they don't have a big, very specific, public goal that is guiding everything they are doing.Launching rockets is hard, and Blue Origin should rightfully be congratulated for what they are doing and attempting to do, but SpaceX is just operating at a whole other level above them.