Quote from: woods170 on 07/17/2014 08:21 amNo no no! The waaaaay more interesting bet should be: does ULA still exist 10 years from now. (But I guess that is OT for a SpaceX thread...)I would take that in a modified form, will Atlas or Delta still be around (it doesn't matter what is the name of the company that operates them)
No no no! The waaaaay more interesting bet should be: does ULA still exist 10 years from now. (But I guess that is OT for a SpaceX thread...)
Quote from: strangequark on 05/07/2014 05:16 pmQuote from: strangequark on 08/29/2011 12:00 amQuote from: go4mars on 08/25/2011 03:35 pmI predict that SpaceX will recover a 1st stage by Jan 2016, and will reuse a first stage at less expense than a new one by June 2018. My wager if you'll take it; an interesting space-related T-shirt will come to you in the mail if I'm wrong. If I'm right, you send me an interesting space-related T-shirt. First 15 nay-sayers only. Must reply by Dec 2012.I will take you up on that. I worked for a little while on Shuttle SRB, and I've seen what that recovery process looks like first hand. Namely, it is brutal. SpaceX is wanting to recover from a higher, faster starting point, and with a much weaker structure (SRBs were thick, HSLA steel). I have no doubt that it can be done, but I think it will take them longer to recover. I will add the condition that the first stage much be recovered largely intact by January 2016. Is that an acceptable condition?Reviving this thread, given recent events. Have to say that I'm getting nervous about my end of this bet these days. You're still on here, right, go4mars? I may owe you a shirt in the near future. Still here.
Quote from: strangequark on 08/29/2011 12:00 amQuote from: go4mars on 08/25/2011 03:35 pmI predict that SpaceX will recover a 1st stage by Jan 2016, and will reuse a first stage at less expense than a new one by June 2018. My wager if you'll take it; an interesting space-related T-shirt will come to you in the mail if I'm wrong. If I'm right, you send me an interesting space-related T-shirt. First 15 nay-sayers only. Must reply by Dec 2012.I will take you up on that. I worked for a little while on Shuttle SRB, and I've seen what that recovery process looks like first hand. Namely, it is brutal. SpaceX is wanting to recover from a higher, faster starting point, and with a much weaker structure (SRBs were thick, HSLA steel). I have no doubt that it can be done, but I think it will take them longer to recover. I will add the condition that the first stage much be recovered largely intact by January 2016. Is that an acceptable condition?Reviving this thread, given recent events. Have to say that I'm getting nervous about my end of this bet these days. You're still on here, right, go4mars? I may owe you a shirt in the near future.
Quote from: go4mars on 08/25/2011 03:35 pmI predict that SpaceX will recover a 1st stage by Jan 2016, and will reuse a first stage at less expense than a new one by June 2018. My wager if you'll take it; an interesting space-related T-shirt will come to you in the mail if I'm wrong. If I'm right, you send me an interesting space-related T-shirt. First 15 nay-sayers only. Must reply by Dec 2012.I will take you up on that. I worked for a little while on Shuttle SRB, and I've seen what that recovery process looks like first hand. Namely, it is brutal. SpaceX is wanting to recover from a higher, faster starting point, and with a much weaker structure (SRBs were thick, HSLA steel). I have no doubt that it can be done, but I think it will take them longer to recover. I will add the condition that the first stage much be recovered largely intact by January 2016. Is that an acceptable condition?
I predict that SpaceX will recover a 1st stage by Jan 2016, and will reuse a first stage at less expense than a new one by June 2018. My wager if you'll take it; an interesting space-related T-shirt will come to you in the mail if I'm wrong. If I'm right, you send me an interesting space-related T-shirt. First 15 nay-sayers only. Must reply by Dec 2012.
Quote from: Lee Jay on 07/17/2014 02:34 amAround 1 in 3 adults in the US don't drink alcohol at all. I'm one of them and I don't gamble either.I bet you do!
Around 1 in 3 adults in the US don't drink alcohol at all. I'm one of them and I don't gamble either.
Quote from: Lar on 07/16/2014 09:59 pmLar. Cleaned it up. Hopefully no language, all math. I go with FH means 3 cores. Any ONE core delay can delay two additional. How does this look? For all years prior to 2025:X * 1 core* (F9 + derivatives + variants) + Y * 1 core* (F9R + derivatives + variants) + Z * 3 core * (FH + derivatives + variants) < 24 / year.
Probably even higher in Utah. While the elderly and prisoners skew that statistic, I'm not sure I qualify as a gambler either. My space-themed T-shirt bet is a win for me no matter the outcome. I get to use someone as a billboard for a pro-space message of some kind if I lose. If I win, I get a new space-themed T-shirt. Is that really gambling?
Quote from: llanitedave on 07/17/2014 03:26 amQuote from: Lee Jay on 07/17/2014 02:34 amAround 1 in 3 adults in the US don't drink alcohol at all. I'm one of them and I don't gamble either.I bet you do! Do what?
Quote from: Lee Jay on 07/17/2014 06:55 pmQuote from: llanitedave on 07/17/2014 03:26 amQuote from: Lee Jay on 07/17/2014 02:34 amAround 1 in 3 adults in the US don't drink alcohol at all. I'm one of them and I don't gamble either.I bet you do! Do what?He probably means gambling. It's extremely difficult to go through life without gambling on future outcomes.
-Will a Dragon leave LEO before Orion (defined as, oh, say, 1000km AGL)?
Quote from: Space OurSoul on 07/18/2014 09:20 pm-Will a Dragon leave LEO before Orion (defined as, oh, say, 1000km AGL)?I don't really care about any of the rest (they're interesting, but...) ... that said, I'll take the Dragon side of that one against anyone who cares to risk the same sort of bottle H and I have riding. Heck, I'll take it up to 5 times (5 different people, even odds)Side bet (with myself) is that I get no takers
Quote from: Lar on 07/18/2014 09:38 pmQuote from: Space OurSoul on 07/18/2014 09:20 pm-Will a Dragon leave LEO before Orion (defined as, oh, say, 1000km AGL)?I don't really care about any of the rest (they're interesting, but...) ... that said, I'll take the Dragon side of that one against anyone who cares to risk the same sort of bottle H and I have riding. Heck, I'll take it up to 5 times (5 different people, even odds)Side bet (with myself) is that I get no takers You lose that side bet - I'll take the Orion side of that. EFT-1, nominally in December, leaves LEO by that definition.
Quote from: mheney on 07/18/2014 09:45 pmQuote from: Lar on 07/18/2014 09:38 pmQuote from: Space OurSoul on 07/18/2014 09:20 pm-Will a Dragon leave LEO before Orion (defined as, oh, say, 1000km AGL)?I don't really care about any of the rest (they're interesting, but...) ... that said, I'll take the Dragon side of that one against anyone who cares to risk the same sort of bottle H and I have riding. Heck, I'll take it up to 5 times (5 different people, even odds)Side bet (with myself) is that I get no takers You lose that side bet - I'll take the Orion side of that. EFT-1, nominally in December, leaves LEO by that definition.Whoops! I was thinking manned but forgot to say that.. any one else will have to take manned or no bet. You got yourself some easy money there I think.
But if manned is what you intended, then manned is what we'll do.
Quote from: Jim on 07/17/2014 03:53 pmQuote from: woods170 on 07/17/2014 08:21 amNo no no! The waaaaay more interesting bet should be: does ULA still exist 10 years from now. (But I guess that is OT for a SpaceX thread...)I would take that in a modified form, will Atlas or Delta still be around (it doesn't matter what is the name of the company that operates them)That may be a simpler form of the same bet. If Atlas or Delta are still around in 10 years, rapid reusability has failed in some pretty fundamental way. No need to pick an arbitrary launch rate.
so did these bets get added?