Author Topic: Manned Mars mission using SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy?  (Read 125244 times)

Offline Dave G

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Manned Mars mission using SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy?
« on: 10/03/2008 02:35 pm »
Since I'm no expert, I was wondering if some people here could help me answer this hypothetical question:

Would it be possible to fly 3-4 people to Mars using multiple SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy launches?

Specifically:

• How feasible is it to launch parts of a Mars spacecraft, assemble them in LEO, and then perform a trans-Mars injection?

• Assuming Falcon 9 Heavy (F9H) can launch 30,000 kg to LEO, how many launches would this take?

• Given that a Mars mission would last 2 years, a substantial habitat must be on the Mars surface before the crew leaves Earth.  How many F9H launches would it take to get this habitat to the surface ahead of time?

• You would also need a way to get from the Mars spacecraft to the surface and back again, some kind of Mars Excursion Module with descent and ascent stages.  Also, would making propellant for ascent on the surface save much weight? 

• Since 2 years is a long time to sit around in a greenhouse and play bingo, you would presumably want a Mars Rover and some associated consumables on the surface when you arrive.  How many F9H launches might this take?

• What issues would there be in using F9H to launch a small nuclear power device capable of supplying a VASIMR powered spacecraft and/or supplying electricity for a Mars surface habitat and rover?

In short, is such a mission hypothetically feasible?  Also, assuming F9H costs $100M to launch 30,000 kg to LEO, how much would the launch services part of such a mission cost?

Offline mrmandias

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Re: Manned Mars mission using SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy?
« Reply #1 on: 10/03/2008 03:48 pm »
The "Mars for Less" plan was based on multiple launches of EELV's. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_for_Less
The folks at www.marsdrive.com are working on similar plans. 

The Mars for Less reference mission (
http://marsdrive.com/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=38&Itemid=93 )
calls for 13 launches and specifically mentions the Falcon 9 as a possibility.  The reference mission calls for 25 tons to a 200-km circular orbit, which the Falcon 9 Heavy is supposed to do easily.

So, if the Falcon 9-H works and the quoted prices remain the same and the Mars for Less plan turns out to be feasible, launch costs would be $ 1.2285 billion.

-----
Correction: 25 tonnes (25000 kgs)
« Last Edit: 10/03/2008 03:54 pm by mrmandias »

Offline Dave G

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Re: Manned Mars mission using SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy?
« Reply #2 on: 10/03/2008 04:41 pm »
mrmandias,

I was unaware of the Mars-For-Less / marsdrive proposal.  Thanks for the links!

$1.2 billion in launch services would be very cheap for a manned Mars mission.

I had heard of the Mars Direct proposal before, and the the Mars-For-Less proposal is based on that.  But I thought NASA had determined that sending a complete manned Earth Return Vehicle to/from the surface was a bad idea, and that a Mars Orbit Rendezvous between a "Mars surface schooner" and an orbiting long distance space craft would be a better option.  Has this changed?  Is there something I'm missing here?
« Last Edit: 10/03/2008 04:46 pm by Dave G »

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Manned Mars mission using SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy?
« Reply #3 on: 10/03/2008 05:38 pm »
Who says it has to be a round trip? A one way trip would be much easier as long as needed supplies can be launched every two years.... Setup some green houses, shelters...
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It's your med's!

Offline beb

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Re: Manned Mars mission using SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy?
« Reply #4 on: 10/03/2008 06:03 pm »
Who says it has to be a round trip? A one way trip would be much easier as long as needed supplies can be launched every two years.... Setup some green houses, shelters...

Just get some 70 year old astronauts with no families so they have no worries about returning home and you're gold.

This can be read as both sarcastic and seriously.

Offline jimvela

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Re: Manned Mars mission using SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy?
« Reply #5 on: 10/03/2008 06:34 pm »
Who says it has to be a round trip? A one way trip would be much easier as long as needed supplies can be launched every two years.... Setup some green houses, shelters...

Just get some 70 year old astronauts with no families so they have no worries about returning home and you're gold.

This can be read as both sarcastic and seriously.

Doesn't have to be old.  I know of several colleagues whom would sign up tomorrow for a one-way ticket to mars.

Offline Exci

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Re: Manned Mars mission using SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy?
« Reply #6 on: 10/03/2008 07:28 pm »
Even if somoene like Bill Gates ponied up several billion for a one way trip, would it even be legal to send them?  If the theory was you kept sending supplies every 2 years or whatever, would someone be liable if the shipments failed and they died of starvation? 
« Last Edit: 10/03/2008 07:28 pm by Exci »

Offline publiusr

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Re: Manned Mars mission using SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy?
« Reply #7 on: 10/03/2008 08:34 pm »
Musk also understands the need for a BFR. Same as Griffin

Offline kraisee

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Re: Manned Mars mission using SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy?
« Reply #8 on: 10/03/2008 08:42 pm »
Exci,
I'll chip in towards any collection intended to send Bill Gates on a one way trip to Mars...   Can I suggest we send Mike Griffin as well?

Oh, did I say that out loud?

Naughty Ross.
« Last Edit: 10/03/2008 08:46 pm by kraisee »
"The meek shall inherit the Earth -- the rest of us will go to the stars"
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Offline mrmandias

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Re: Manned Mars mission using SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy?
« Reply #9 on: 10/03/2008 08:53 pm »
Even if somoene like Bill Gates ponied up several billion for a one way trip, would it even be legal to send them?  If the theory was you kept sending supplies every 2 years or whatever, would someone be liable if the shipments failed and they died of starvation? 

I can't think of why it would be illegal offhand.  But there's a reason I never give advice to my clients offhand, either.  If nothing else you may need some regulatory waivers.

You are probably right that there would be liability issues.  What you would want to do would be to get the one-wayers to sign massive, detailed scary waivers.  You also want to do the whole thing in a blaze of publicity, emphasizing that the one-wayers are heroes because they are facing almost certain death, etc.  This primes the public to not look favorably on any relatives bringing lawsuits later.  You probably want to create a corporation to manage the project that doesn't have significant assets outside its Mars efforts.  Alternatively, you may wish to create some kind of partnership with the one-wayers included as principals.  In reality the more the one-wayers are involved in decision-making and planning the harder a wrongful death liability claim would be.

The real problem is going to be with suppliers and contractors.  If they screw up delivery of a key component and consequently the Mars base goes Roanoke, they have some serious liability issues.  For that reason they are likely going to want mountains of indemnities and risk premiums.

Our risk-adverse, litigious society and boldly going where no man has gone before don't mix well.  But there's always legal engineering and, preferably, judicial, legislative, and regulatory engineering.

Offline Sith

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Re: Manned Mars mission using SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy?
« Reply #10 on: 10/03/2008 08:59 pm »
Maybe a private program will be cheaper than the joint governmental Mars mission ;)

Offline randomly

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Re: Manned Mars mission using SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy?
« Reply #11 on: 10/03/2008 09:05 pm »
Who needs waivers. If the astronauts on Mars have a beef, just tell em
'Come sue me'.

Personally I'd go for a one way trip.

Offline synchrotron

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Re: Manned Mars mission using SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy?
« Reply #12 on: 10/03/2008 09:08 pm »
Who needs waivers. If the astronauts on Mars have a beef, just tell em
'Come sue me'.

Power of attorney.

Offline Eerie

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Re: Manned Mars mission using SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy?
« Reply #13 on: 10/03/2008 09:42 pm »
Personally I'd go for a one way trip.

I can bet you a million dollars that you won`t go for a one way trip.

Offline Dave G

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Re: Manned Mars mission using SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy?
« Reply #14 on: 10/03/2008 10:20 pm »
A one-way trip might be feasible without much resupply. 

Sending 2 years worth of food and water to the surface of Mars seems extremely difficult and costly, so I'm thinking a Mars mission will require a plant-based life support system.  Is this correct? Some supplies would need to be shipped, but these would probably be mostly for when the plants fail and the bio system has to be rebooted.

If you're already living off of what you grow, then you could stay for a long time, yes?  I don't know if any government would let someone do it, but it sounds feasible.  How long do small nuclear power sources last?
« Last Edit: 10/03/2008 10:21 pm by Dave G »

Offline mrmandias

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Re: Manned Mars mission using SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy?
« Reply #15 on: 10/03/2008 10:49 pm »
Who needs waivers. If the astronauts on Mars have a beef, just tell em
'Come sue me'.

Wrongful death.  The relatives get to sue.

Offline josh_simonson

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Re: Manned Mars mission using SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy?
« Reply #16 on: 10/03/2008 11:08 pm »
Actually, that's not true.  A person only needs about 630g of dry food per day, so two years is 460kg, for a crew of 4 that's 1.8t.  You're not going to send the ability to produce food for less than that.

It's more important to be able to recycle air and water, which people require 1kg and 2.5kg per day, respectively.  To bring that would weigh  2.9t and 7.3t, respectively.  Equipment to recycle water/CO2 is simpler and more compact than a garden, even this does not yet fully exist but the capabilities are being developed for the ISS.

A one-way trip might be feasible without much resupply. 

Sending 2 years worth of food and water to the surface of Mars seems extremely difficult and costly, so I'm thinking a Mars mission will require a plant-based life support system.  Is this correct? Some supplies would need to be shipped, but these would probably be mostly for when the plants fail and the bio system has to be rebooted.

If you're already living off of what you grow, then you could stay for a long time, yes?  I don't know if any government would let someone do it, but it sounds feasible.  How long do small nuclear power sources last?
« Last Edit: 10/03/2008 11:14 pm by josh_simonson »

Offline Dave G

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Re: Manned Mars mission using SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy?
« Reply #17 on: 10/04/2008 12:49 am »
Actually, that's not true.  A person only needs about 630g of dry food per day, so two years is 460kg, for a crew of 4 that's 1.8t.  You're not going to send the ability to produce food for less than that.

It's more important to be able to recycle air and water, which people require 1kg and 2.5kg per day, respectively.  To bring that would weigh  2.9t and 7.3t, respectively.  Equipment to recycle water/CO2 is simpler and more compact than a garden, even this does not yet fully exist but the capabilities are being developed for the ISS.
Thanks Josh!
Thats the kind of info I was looking for.

I've heard of recycling CO2, but not for long duration missions.  Can current CO2 to oxygen recycling systems be extended to last for 2 years or more?  Would this add a lot of weight?  Would we need a new type of system here?

Also, how does water recycling work?  How much of the 2.5kg of water intake per day comes out as urine, and how much as water vapor?  Would urine recycling be enough, or would you need condensers to recycle water vapor in your habitat?  Is there a place on the web that has more info on water recycling?

Assuming hydroponics, 24-hour bright lighting, and inflatable structures, how much more would a plant based life support system weigh than a combination of dry food plus water and CO2 recycling systems?

Also, what power sources would provide lots of electricity for 2 years?  Is nuclear the only option?

Basically, I'm trying to get my head around how a manned Mars mission would actually work.  A 2-year mission is a new thing - lots of things to think about...

Offline hop

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Re: Manned Mars mission using SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy?
« Reply #18 on: 10/04/2008 05:32 am »
Also, how does water recycling work?  How much of the 2.5kg of water intake per day comes out as urine, and how much as water vapor?  Would urine recycling be enough, or would you need condensers to recycle water vapor in your habitat?  Is there a place on the web that has more info on water recycling?
Sweat and respiration accounts for more than urine (this surprised me the first time I read it), and is practically free, since you'll need to control humidity anyway.

NASA TM-108441 (server was extremely slow for me) gives detailed descriptions and numbers for many of these systems. According to page 96
Quote
U.S Crewmember Water Balance kg/person-day (Ib/person-day)
Drinking 1.62 (3.56)
Food Water Content 1.1s (2.54)
Metabolized Water 0.35 (0.76)
Food Preparation 0.76 (1.67)

Urine 1.5 (3.31)
Sweat and Respiration 2.3 (5.o2)
Fecal Water 0.08 (0.20)

Total 3.88 (8.53)

Offline jhoblik

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Re: Manned Mars mission using SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy?
« Reply #19 on: 10/04/2008 08:49 am »
Musk also understands the need for a BFR. Same as Griffin
I think BFR is not necessary.
If we estimate weight of vehicle flying to Mars between 400-500 tun. Most of the weight 80% could be just water.
1/Bigellow B330 as transfer vehicle between Earth<->Mars 30 tun, 1.F9H
2/Galaxy(filled with supply,food,....)   30 tun, 2.F9h, It will join B330

Next 10 launches F9H just deliver water to B330. No reason for rush could be done in 1-12month period.
It will work as shield, supply of oxygen for crew and raw material for rocket fuel

Than complex start to swing around Earth, using generator of LOX and LOH using solar panels. In 6 month close to escape velocity crew arrive on ship and execute final push to leave to Mars,  Crew arrive in Ascending/Descending Mars module(Mars rover on board), with fuel necessary to reach Mars ship. Fuel for landing will be produce  on the orbit of Mars before excursion.

On the way to Mars will prepare necessary amount of LOX and LOH to help with aerobrake at Mars, using aerobraking or better if it will tested aerocapture.

LAM will fill LOX LH tank to be ready for landing on Mars.
Landing /Ascending module land on Mars.
In 200-300 days it will start to produce LOX and LH from mars water, for ascent.

Ascent to transfer ship and start to produce LOX and LH from water and swing 100-200 days to achieve speed for return to earth.

It will increase safety of mission , only critical component will be elctrolyzer, and it could be multiply. No wory about fuel leak, it will be produce at the moment of need.
it will also avoid to have BFR.

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