"The closer we get to the Congressional legislators looking at their own job termination due to the coming mass layoffs, the more likely it becomes that whatever funding is needed will be forthcoming. "I hope you're right! But Congress and the President haven't increased NASA funding for a while (correct? Haven't they gone on continuing resolutions?) and there is the national debt/budget deficit along with lots of other congressmen with different priorities for their districts. I'm trying to be optimistic about all this, it's not always easy. I have to think something will be worked out though, some kind of action would be taken to try to reduce the gap, even if it may be largely symbolic.If the extension happens, can they still go to the end of the year/early next before they have to decide? Or has that changed?
Quote from: Analyst on 08/16/2008 04:06 pmQuote from: Jim on 08/15/2008 06:37 pmQuote from: Analyst on 08/15/2008 05:54 pm- Many focus on losing another Shuttle and its impacts. What if we lose an Orion? Or a lunar lander?AnalystFly the next one coming off the assembly lineAfter years of analysing, redesigning, testing, blaming people and paying for all these efforts while standing down and blaming the original designers.Analyst no, it will be like Apollo 13 or an ELV failure. Find the problem, fix it and flight again.
Quote from: Jim on 08/15/2008 06:37 pmQuote from: Analyst on 08/15/2008 05:54 pm- Many focus on losing another Shuttle and its impacts. What if we lose an Orion? Or a lunar lander?AnalystFly the next one coming off the assembly lineAfter years of analysing, redesigning, testing, blaming people and paying for all these efforts while standing down and blaming the original designers.Analyst
Quote from: Analyst on 08/15/2008 05:54 pm- Many focus on losing another Shuttle and its impacts. What if we lose an Orion? Or a lunar lander?AnalystFly the next one coming off the assembly line
- Many focus on losing another Shuttle and its impacts. What if we lose an Orion? Or a lunar lander?Analyst
Quote from: Jim on 08/16/2008 04:09 pmQuote from: Analyst on 08/16/2008 04:06 pmQuote from: Jim on 08/15/2008 06:37 pmQuote from: Analyst on 08/15/2008 05:54 pm- Many focus on losing another Shuttle and its impacts. What if we lose an Orion? Or a lunar lander?AnalystFly the next one coming off the assembly lineAfter years of analysing, redesigning, testing, blaming people and paying for all these efforts while standing down and blaming the original designers.Analyst no, it will be like Apollo 13 or an ELV failure. Find the problem, fix it and flight again. Apollo 13 did not lose a crew and it took 9.5 months until Apollo 14. In todays risk averse world you can easily double it. If you lose a crew you come up with the Shuttle downtimes after 51L and 107: 2.5 years plus. Finding and fixing the problem might not take this long, but reassuring the stakeholders does. Orion or Shuttle, won't be a difference.Fly the next one coming off the assembly line We did not flow the next Shuttle in the processing flow.Analyst
Apollo 13 did not lose a crew and it took 9.5 months until Apollo 14. In todays risk averse world you can easily double it. If you lose a crew you come up with the Shuttle downtimes after 51L and 107: 2.5 years plus. Finding and fixing the problem might not take this long, but reassuring the stakeholders does. Orion or Shuttle, won't be a difference.
The sort of things that happen when imperfect human beings screw up. Not an indictment of the basic design of Apollo which was sound.
Fly the next one coming off the assembly line We did not flow the next Shuttle in the processing flow.
Quote from: Analyst on 08/17/2008 06:53 amApollo 13 did not lose a crew and it took 9.5 months until Apollo 14. In todays risk averse world you can easily double it. If you lose a crew you come up with the Shuttle downtimes after 51L and 107: 2.5 years plus. Finding and fixing the problem might not take this long, but reassuring the stakeholders does. Orion or Shuttle, won't be a difference.Purely speculation, but I would guess you're closer to the recovery period than Jim. The blame game has typically lasted about as long as the board of inquiry, 6-9 months or so. Generally speaking, NASA has felt compelled to "raise the bar," and that has been a big factor in the length of the recovery period.It will depend on the nature of the causes of the accident, but if management is implicated as it was in both shuttle disasters, than reassuring the stakeholders would probably look like the shuttle failure recoveries.
In terms of impact to schedule, the Apollo 13 incident was 3.5 months, as all post Apollo 12 missions were scheduled at 6 month intervals, so NASA got back on the horse and flew fairly quickly, given the investigation and tank redesign.
Losing 2 vehicles in 100 or so trips is unacceptable reliability any way you look at it. STS should retire as planned unless someone can prove the reliability problems are really behind us.