Regarding Boeing and the like developing reusability:I think over the next year we will see projects start up at all the various large rocket companies that start as feasibility studies into various ways of developing their own reusable technology.A few might decide it is not worth it yet, and a few will decide that since they were thinking of developing a new rocket anyway, they will blank-slate a new reusable rocket similar to the f9, but probably a different size. Most companies will remain a few years behind SpaceX due to their aggressive R&D, but after 10-15 years almost no one will have willfully chosen not to integrate SpaceX's technology refinements to better their own line of products. Especially if the stars keep aligning in SpaceX's favor.
Quote from: Dudely on 08/07/2014 12:23 pmRegarding Boeing and the like developing reusability:I think over the next year we will see projects start up at all the various large rocket companies that start as feasibility studies into various ways of developing their own reusable technology.A few might decide it is not worth it yet, and a few will decide that since they were thinking of developing a new rocket anyway, they will blank-slate a new reusable rocket similar to the f9, but probably a different size. Most companies will remain a few years behind SpaceX due to their aggressive R&D, but after 10-15 years almost no one will have willfully chosen not to integrate SpaceX's technology refinements to better their own line of products. Especially if the stars keep aligning in SpaceX's favor.Is it possible that SpaceX might follow the Toyota Prius model with reusability by licensing the earlier versions of their reusability technology to competitors to help grow the industry. There are hybrid Fords, Chevrolets etc using Toyota tech. Toyota can use competitor sales dollars to offset further research into the next advance. And, an industry with 5 different brands of hybrid looks more stable and legitimate to retail customers. Likewise, SpaceX could license control software packages for vertical landing stage one while they develop Raptor, Mars mission hardware, and such. Advantage remains with SpaceX since the competitors are still going to slower to adopt the tech. An industry where everybody reflies their first stage could become common and more accepted.
The only way to license reusability that would save significant money or time would be to license production of the whole first stage.
Also, their customers don't really care if the stage is reused, or how many launch providers are flying reused stages.
They care about reliability (how much insurance for the launch costs), and how much the launch it's self costs.
Is it possible that SpaceX might follow the Toyota Prius model with reusability by licensing the earlier versions of their reusability technology to competitors to help grow the industry. There are hybrid Fords...
Is there any talk or hint of a crew access and evacuation structure being built at SLC-40 or should we expect a lot of work to start happening at LC-39A over the next few months?
In other news, I accidentally bumped into the NASA Launch Service Program Launch Vehicle Performance Website again after last visiting some time ago - it seems that they have updated the information about the rockets lately.Well, here's the latest results for the F9 v1.1: 200 km LEO, 28.5 deg. - 16625 kg750 km SSO - 11820 kg185 x 35786 x 28.5 deg. GTO - 6090 kg (!)C3 10.78 km^2/s^2 (MSL's heliocentric transfer orbit) - 2555 kg
Wow. In looking at just the U.S. elements of the ISS, that would mean the Falcon 9 v1.1 would be capable of lifting all of them to 200 km. That's not high enough to get them to the ISS today (it's at 400 km), but if a tug motor was part of the package (like the Cygnus Service Module) that might be enough.And yes, some existing elements may not fit in the existing Falcon 9 fairing, but it's rather remarkable to think that we could duplicate our part of the ISS by paying $61.2M per launch versus the Shuttle's average of $1.2B. The math on that is pretty remarkable too, just 5% of the Shuttle.So when we're ready to start building more structures in space, transportation costs are going to be a much smaller percentage that they have been. And that's the direction we have to go if we want to expand humanity out into space.My $0.02
Obviously, things will evolve as they refine their technology, and as the market changes in response to the lower prices SpaceX is offering to human passengers, and as reliability and robustness of their designs become better known over time. So no telling where else it might go in the long term, or how soon SpaceX might decide it is in their interest to have a second pad ready to have even some limited/occasional capability for human passenger launches.
Maybe I should be a bit clearer in my question. We know that SpaceX plans to launch humans for the first time on Falcon-9 some time next year.
Quote from: Ben the Space Brit on 08/18/2014 01:28 pmMaybe I should be a bit clearer in my question. We know that SpaceX plans to launch humans for the first time on Falcon-9 some time next year. Huh?
Quote from: QuantumG on 08/18/2014 01:40 pmQuote from: Ben the Space Brit on 08/18/2014 01:28 pmMaybe I should be a bit clearer in my question. We know that SpaceX plans to launch humans for the first time on Falcon-9 some time next year. Huh?They ARE still saying '2015' aren't they? If they aren't then it's passed me by.
The last I heard they were saying "three more years" like they've always been saying.
Next year for the first manned testflight should still be in the cards.
Quote from: QuantumG on 08/18/2014 01:45 pmThe last I heard they were saying "three more years" like they've always been saying. That would be after full certification by NASA and for the first Commercial Crew flight to the ISS. Next year for the first manned testflight should still be in the cards.
Quote from: Ben the Space Brit on 08/17/2014 01:47 pmIs there any talk or hint of a crew access and evacuation structure being built at SLC-40 or should we expect a lot of work to start happening at LC-39A over the next few months?From what I've read, and seen discussed here on NSF, the answer would seem to be no, at least initially. SpaceX intends to do all of their human spaceflight Falcon 9 launches from KSC pad 39A.Obviously, things will evolve as they refine their technology, and as the market changes in response to the lower prices SpaceX is offering to human passengers, and as reliability and robustness of their designs become better known over time. So no telling where else it might go in the long term, or how soon SpaceX might decide it is in their interest to have a second pad ready to have even some limited/occasional capability for human passenger launches.