Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 237500 times)

Online scr00chy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #520 on: 10/12/2021 08:48 pm »
I believe B1051 is also at Vandenberg.

Have you seen any proof? Because I believe that apart from B1049 we've only seen one other booster being transported to California and that might have been B1063, as I've speculated here.


Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #521 on: 10/12/2021 09:23 pm »
I believe B1051 is also at Vandenberg.

Have you seen any proof? Because I believe that apart from B1049 we've only seen one other booster being transported to California and that might have been B1063, as I've speculated here.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42977.msg2283896#msg2283896

Online zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #522 on: 10/13/2021 12:16 am »
I believe B1051 is also at Vandenberg.

Have you seen any proof? Because I believe that apart from B1049 we've only seen one other booster being transported to California and that might have been B1063, as I've speculated here.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42977.msg2283896#msg2283896

1051 leaving McGregor for California on August 29?

Instead of 1051 leaving the Cape for California on June 17?
« Last Edit: 10/13/2021 12:46 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline ZachS09

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #523 on: 10/13/2021 01:20 am »
I believe B1051 is also at Vandenberg.

Have you seen any proof? Because I believe that apart from B1049 we've only seen one other booster being transported to California and that might have been B1063, as I've speculated here.



https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.teslarati.com/spacex-west-coast-starlink-booster-fleet/amp/
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Online vaporcobra

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #524 on: 10/13/2021 06:28 am »
I believe B1051 is also at Vandenberg.

Have you seen any proof? Because I believe that apart from B1049 we've only seen one other booster being transported to California and that might have been B1063, as I've speculated here.



https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.teslarati.com/spacex-west-coast-starlink-booster-fleet/amp/

That's my bad, I completely forgot to correct that article once it became less clear which booster the second arrival was.

What is now clear is that B1063 probably isn't launching Starlink 2-2 and B1049 (aside from likely being on the wrong side of the country) would have to cut its turnaround record in half to do support the mission. Which ultimately means that we missed a westbound booster or that the HangarX tour post was wrong (maybe OP misheard, maybe the source misspoke or was mistaken).

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #525 on: 10/13/2021 10:23 am »
What is now clear is that B1063 probably isn't launching Starlink 2-2 and B1049 (aside from likely being on the wrong side of the country) would have to cut its turnaround record in half to do support the mission. Which ultimately means that we missed a westbound booster or that the HangarX tour post was wrong (maybe OP misheard, maybe the source misspoke or was mistaken).

See the link gongora posted a few comments up. That was probably B1051 moving to California. It happened during that period in McGregor with several boosters coming and going over a few days, so it's understandable there is still a lot of confusion about where some boosters are.

B1051 now seems to be the booster for Starlink 2-2, we should have a confirmation from SpaceX soon.
« Last Edit: 10/13/2021 10:24 am by scr00chy »

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #526 on: 10/31/2021 05:12 pm »
With the delay of Crew 3 to next week, October will be the second month this year, after July, without a SpaceX launch.
The graph of the pace of the last ten launches will nosedive from over 40 to half the peak, back to the level seen in 2018.

I miss my regular fix of “launch and land”.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #527 on: 10/31/2021 08:28 pm »
With the delay of Crew 3 to next week, October will be the second month this year, after July, without a SpaceX launch.
The graph of the pace of the last ten launches will nosedive from over 40 to half the peak, back to the level seen in 2018.

I miss my regular fix of “launch and land”.

Just seeing your post got me excited that there was a new launch date announced.  But no ☹️

The first half of the year was incredible for pace, I miss those days too.  Once Starlink is ready in numbers again we should return to that pace.

The manifest for 2022 is going to require a two coast 3 ship fleet working hard!
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Online zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #528 on: 11/07/2021 10:03 pm »
SpX-23          LC-39A    August 29 (UTC)
Inspiration4  LC-39A    September 16
Crew-3           LC-39A    November 11
Starlink 4-1   SLC-40     November 13 12
??                   ??              ??
IXPE               LC-39A    December 9
CSG-2            SLC-40    December 14
SpX-24           LC-39A    December 21
Turksat 5B    SLC-40     mid Dec late 2021

An observation: If SpaceX wishes to, there is room in the launch schedule for another Starlink cluster launch from SLC-40 in late November, before CSG-2.

I don't know how much time the IXPE launch campaign needs, or I might also speculate about a launch from LC-39A in late November.

Also, I'm wondering if the Turksat launch will slip into 2022.--
But, still no news of the satellite shipping to the Space Coast.

Edit/add: Also, the CSG-2 launch is from SLC-40 in the middle of December.  So, this launch in early December, or late December?

Edit: Nov 12
« Last Edit: 11/13/2021 01:43 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline crandles57

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #529 on: 11/11/2021 08:35 pm »
Turksat 5B now reported to be pad 40 by LP (11 Nov version)
http://www.launchphotography.com/Launch_Viewing_Guide.html

says Dec rather than late 2021 but placement between 9th and 14th seems odd as CSG 2 on 14th is also from pad 40. 28th or later seems more likely, but perhaps first 2 or 3 days of Dec is possible?


Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the next Starlink internet satellite batch on November 12 at 7:40am EST. Other upcoming launches include Falcon 9 with the next batch of Starlink satellites on TBA. A Falcon 9 from pad 39A will launch NASA's Imaging X-Ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE) spacecraft on December 9 at 1:00am EST. A Falcon 9 will launch the Turksat 5B communication satellite from pad 40 in December. A Falcon 9 from pad 40 will launch the CSG-2/CosmoSkyMed satellite for Italy on December 14 around 6:11pm EST. Sunset is 5:27pm. A Falcon 9 from pad 39A will launch the CRS-24 Dragon resupply mission to the ISS on December 21 at 5:06am EST.

Online zubenelgenubi

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #530 on: 11/12/2021 04:42 am »
Space Coast orbital launch schedule for the immediate future:
Scheduled:
№ – Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

December 1 NET July NET August? Aug Aug? NET October TBD - Starlink 4-3 4-2? (x53? x60) (flight 32 TBD) [v1.5 L3 v1.0 L30] - Falcon 9-130 (1062.4? S) - Canaveral SLC-40 / Kennedy LC-39A - 06:36
(Starlink: launch 20-22 minutes earlier/day)

December 4 TBD Q1 February 26 TBD midyear June 23 NET late NET July NET August late Aug or early Sept? NET early Sept ? TBD NET mid-November ~22 22 - STP-3: STPSat-6, ROOSTER-1 (LDPE-1), small satellites (up to 4 x6?) - Atlas V 551 (AV-093) - Canaveral SLC-41 - 09:04-11:04

December 9 May 31 September 15 NET November 20 NET 17 Dec 13 - IXPE - Falcon 9 (1062.4? previously flown S) - Kennedy LC-39A - 06:00-07:30

Mid December Q2 June Q4 end of year December - Türksat 5B - Falcon 9 (S) - Canaveral SLC-40 / Kennedy LC-39A - likely night EST

December 21 October 2 November Nov 10 December Dec 2 Dec 4 late Dec - Dragon SpX-24 - Falcon 9 (S) - Kennedy LC-39A - 10:06 ~09:00
(ISS flights: 22-26 minutes earlier/day)

December? TBD 2022 (NET) November 18 December December 14 - CSG-2 - Falcon 9-TBD 128? (L?) Vega-C - Canaveral SLC-40 / Kennedy LC-39A Kourou - ~23:11 23:11:12
(Sun-synchronous orbit satellites: launch at approximately the same time of day year-round)

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« Last Edit: 11/17/2021 07:44 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Online vaporcobra

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #531 on: 11/14/2021 01:38 am »
Congratulations SpaceX on what appears to be a flawless flight and a return of east coast Starlink flights. 

The rest of the 2021 Manifest looks like it could finish strong. Hopefully there can be 1 or two more Starlink flights before 12/31

This is a better fit for a manifest thread. Been meaning to do this for awhile but per Elon's tweet that SpaceX plans to launch 80t in Q4, that will definitely require at least a few more Starlink launches. Based on him saying that SpaceX launched 41t in Q3, I'll ballpark that as 13t for Inspiration4, 14t for CRS-23, and 14t for Starlink 2-1.

In Q4, we have two launches behind us and five more confirmed missions on the manifest:
Quote
Crew-3 (13t)
Starlink 4-1 (15t)
DART (0.7t)
IXPE (0.4t)
CSG-2 (2.2t)
Turksat 5B (4.5t)
CRS-24 (14t)
Altogether, that's about 50t, leaving room for two more Starlink launches to reach Elon's 80t prediction. I'd personally guess that that means one more Starlink launch from each coast before the end of the year.
« Last Edit: 11/14/2021 01:39 am by vaporcobra »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #532 on: 11/18/2021 02:32 am »
Not a big surprise, but I appreciate them reaching the same conclusions as us.

(This is beyond the Florida Starlink launch confirmed for December 1.)

SFN, SpaceX is about to break its own annual launch record, dated November 17

Quote
The schedule in December could have room for two more Starlink launches — one from California and one from Florida. But SpaceX typically does not reveal schedules for its Starlink missions until weeks, or even days, before the launch date.
« Last Edit: 11/18/2021 02:34 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #533 on: 12/02/2021 07:55 pm »
Is there any evidence, at this juncture, against a very late December Starlink launch from Florida?
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #534 on: 12/02/2021 08:23 pm »
ASDS (would line up to be ASOG) turnaround would be tight.  12 days from Turksat 5B, if launched just before midnight EST on 12/31.  Doable, but ASOG shortest turnaround so far will be tonight (21.9 days launch to launch)

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #535 on: 12/02/2021 08:44 pm »
Also, SpaceX has so far never launched after Dec 23, possibly to avoid launching over the holidays.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #536 on: 12/02/2021 08:57 pm »
I'm thinking this Starlink mission that's currently listed for late December will be there first launch of 2022.
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #537 on: 12/02/2021 09:02 pm »
Also, SpaceX has so far never launched after Dec 23, possibly to avoid launching over the holidays.

They've scheduled at least one launch between Christmas and New Year before, but it slipped.

Offline crandles57

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #538 on: 12/02/2021 09:35 pm »
Also, SpaceX has so far never launched after Dec 23, possibly to avoid launching over the holidays.

They've scheduled at least one launch between Christmas and New Year before, but it slipped.


There is also this:
I don't get this mission numbering.     1908-EX-ST-2021

Starlink 4-5, launching southeast from the Cape, NET late27 December.
Droneship location east of the Bahamas
North  25  43  12   West  75  2  52

If they were planning a break over the holidays, why ask to start it on 27 Dec rather than Jan 2?

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #539 on: 12/02/2021 09:52 pm »
Also, SpaceX has so far never launched after Dec 23, possibly to avoid launching over the holidays.

They've scheduled at least one launch between Christmas and New Year before, but it slipped.


There is also this:
I don't get this mission numbering.     1908-EX-ST-2021

Starlink 4-5, launching southeast from the Cape, NET late27 December.
Droneship location east of the Bahamas
North  25  43  12   West  75  2  52

If they were planning a break over the holidays, why ask to start it on 27 Dec rather than Jan 2?

I think that would be range driven. Elon just told people to come in and work during Thanksgiving and held an all hands meeting at midnight (or was it 2 am).

Elon gives no dams about peoples days off. Only if an external source has them stand down.

Personally, whether they launch at the end of December or the start of January, it's about the same.  I'll be watching.
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