... Cost? Yes it would but that's rather beside the point in that not even SpaceX is "planning" on using the Dragon to get to Mars for the (also rather obvious) reason that Dragon (even Dragon 2) is not a viable Mars landing craft....
Mars Polar is an organisation lead by two Russians, based in the UAE (they have offices there too apparently). Beautiful website design but a lot of borrowed hardware graphics mixed in with their own. Site is oculus rift compatible in some sections, intriguingly. They intend to set up a polar Mars colony, hence the name. Their reasons for going to mars seem rather Muskite crossed with Zubrinite. They're based in a particularly pricey part of a particularly pricey city, which infers they have some cash to play with. They advocate a Mars Direct style architecture. They intend to build their own launch site and haven't fully fleshed out their ideas yet. They're rendered 3D models of their spaceship design - modular, minimal, conventional, chemical, to be short. They intend to aerobrake the whole ship. They've given out a lot of detailed mass figures - I'd need more info to know if they're suspect or not, but they certainly have a plan of some kind.They want volunteers and crowdfunding. Crowdfunding isn't going to get them to Mars, but every bit helps I guess.
So when Mars One came up with their idea, their proposal was based on a bunch of Dragon vehicles transporting people to the Martian surface and serving as living quarters - a very dicey proposition - because that was the only real-world equipment available for them to base their proposal on.But now that Musk has announced the Interplanetary Transport System and put that on the table, would it be possible for Mars One to revise their plans to now base them on this newly available platform?If they do choose to do this, then what kinds of proposals might they come up with, as an improvement over their previous idea?
I can't believe people are still taking this project seriously. It's clear nothing is going to happen.
ITS changes things so much for the better for Mars One.
Quote from: Star One on 10/03/2016 02:11 pmI can't believe people are still taking this project seriously. It's clear nothing is going to happen.Agreed. But that doesn't mean we can't hypothesize about their architecture, does it? Every next iteration of the 'no return' mission design will be a little bit closer to drawing enough support to cover the remaining costs.
I don't know about y'all, but I'd watch a reality TV show about colonists on Mars.That is essentially what their plan is.
The movie "Europa Report" is entirely made out of beamed back footage from a fictitious mission, plus interviews with Earthbound administrators. It's very well done, once you catch on to the out of sequence parts and how to read the time code at the bottom.
I see your point Randy but I think the capabilities of ITS should make it easier to gain funding, not harder. Agreed their timeline as planned is now out the window but once ITS is flying it will compress everything by a factor of 4 or 5 time wise.I hope that they don't give up the idea but grow their plans to take advantage of the new capabilities on offer.
I think if Mars One was serious about continuing their plans, they would have been following this forum and the subreddit, bought an L2 subscription to keep up to date with the latest scraps from Elon, so that they could have a new plan ready to present the day after Elon's IAC speech. They didn't.
OK, the What If game.
Assume they can raise an initial 1B $. Assume they do their own location. SpaceX probably won't want them colocated with their own base because one day the responsibility to keep them alive may fall in their lap. Mars One don't want to deal with the initial expense and complexity of flying back.
A one way ITS should cost maybe 300m $. Send two to set up the base. That leaves 400m for equipment and supplies. Supplies for 10 people and two synods, to be prepared for worst case are less than 100t. Solar panels, a greenhouse for fresh produce and oxygen. A tunnel from the ITS exit to the greenhouse. Some digging equipment for water ISRU, no need for a large amount of water like for fuel ISRU.
Should be a lot more doable than their first approach with Dragons. Needs at least 500m $ for one supply flight every synod to maintain and slowly grow the number of people to 50 with added greenhouse capacity. Building up fuel ISRU and switching to reusable ITS should bring the cost for sustaining the base down or enable growth.