Author Topic: Virgin Galactic Hypersonic P2P Travel  (Read 58639 times)

Offline CameronD

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Re: Virgin Galactic Hypersonic P2P Travel
« Reply #20 on: 08/21/2023 12:00 am »
Are you trying to say that just the change in outside air pressure between 18 km and 27 km altitude would increase the wall tension stress of the pressure vessel by a factor four?  That's not how it works.  What matters is the gauge pressure, i.e. the difference in pressure between the inside and the outside.  And that would change from 80 kPa - 14 kPa = 66 kPa, to 80 kPa - 3 kPa = 77 kPa, which is only a 17% increase, not a 300% increase.  Even going to perfect vacuum on the outside would only be a 21% increase.

You're quite right.  Thanks for correcting me.  :-[

Again, if Concorde couldn't make a profit and died then no prospect of any other exotic faster than sound transport will be successful. It's fantasy.
Concorde might of been profitable if it hadn't been locked out of USA market.

There were also not-insignificant requirements for runway construction and ground support at the airports it landed at due to its significantly different geometry to other airliners of the day - including IIRC a need for dedicated fuel lines to its dedicated stand-off parking bay.  Although many did, many more airports (world-wide, not just in the USA) were not willing to fork out significant $$$ for the additional airside works required for one specific first-class-only aircraft type with an uncertain operational future.

FWIW, the A380 had the same problem when it first entered service, although by that time it was seen as progress and worth the capital spend.
 
With sufficient thrust, pigs fly just fine - however, this is not necessarily a good idea. It is hard to be sure where they are
going to land, and it could be dangerous sitting under them as they fly overhead.

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Virgin Galactic Hypersonic P2P Travel
« Reply #21 on: 08/21/2023 03:38 am »
Maybe it isn't as tangible as Concorde, but you have to admit it's still a very pretty paper aeroplane:
This rendering is pretty cool. Any hypersonic airliner design capable of Mach 6 and an altitude of 200,000 feet with a capacity for 100 passengers that Boom jointly envisages with the SpaceShip Company would have to use titanium and a minimal amount of titanium carbide ceramics b/c of heat friction at Mach 3.

Perhaps you mean unobtainium??  Whatever breakthrough material they use, if it ever actually makes it off the drawing board this will be one incredibly expensive aircraft to build and operate and, perhaps like it's predecessor, that means uneconomic from the get-go.
I'm not talking about unobtainium because if lightweight titanium and beryllium alloys along with composities and carbon-carbon materials are used in construction of a potential hypersonic airliner, then a hypersonic airliner that could be used by Virgin Galactic would be less expensive than the unbuilt Boeing 2707 or Lockheed L-2000 when taking into account the costs of titanium, beryllium, composite, and carbon-carbon alloys.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Virgin Galactic Hypersonic P2P Travel
« Reply #22 on: 08/21/2023 07:02 pm »
Again, if Concorde couldn't make a profit and died then no prospect of any other exotic faster than sound transport will be successful. It's fantasy.
The world is 5 times richer than it was when Concorde was released.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline daedalus1

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Re: Virgin Galactic Hypersonic P2P Travel
« Reply #23 on: 08/21/2023 07:40 pm »
Again, if Concorde couldn't make a profit and died then no prospect of any other exotic faster than sound transport will be successful. It's fantasy.
The world is 5 times richer than it was when Concorde was released.

Is that in relative money?
If so why isn't a supersonic aircraft running and making a profit now?

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Virgin Galactic Hypersonic P2P Travel
« Reply #24 on: 08/21/2023 08:23 pm »
Again, if Concorde couldn't make a profit and died then no prospect of any other exotic faster than sound transport will be successful. It's fantasy.
The world is 5 times richer than it was when Concorde was released.

Is that in relative money?
If so why isn't a supersonic aircraft running and making a profit now?
that’s in inflation-adjusted dollars. Multiple companies are trying.

The “efficient market hypothesis” isn’t magic. It take a long time to do a project like this, there are barriers all over the place.

Quote
Two economists are walking down the street and pass by a hundred dollar bill without picking it up. A little while later one turns to the other and asks “was that a hundred dollar bill on the ground?” To which the other replies “nope, if it was someone would have picked it up already.”
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28029044

Someone has to actually reach down and pickup that 100 dollar bill on the ground.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline daedalus1

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Re: Virgin Galactic Hypersonic P2P Travel
« Reply #25 on: 08/21/2023 08:39 pm »
Again, if Concorde couldn't make a profit and died then no prospect of any other exotic faster than sound transport will be successful. It's fantasy.
The world is 5 times richer than it was when Concorde was released.

Is that in relative money?
If so why isn't a supersonic aircraft running and making a profit now?
that’s in inflation-adjusted dollars. Multiple companies are trying.

The “efficient market hypothesis” isn’t magic. It take a long time to do a project like this, there are barriers all over the place.

Quote
Two economists are walking down the street and pass by a hundred dollar bill without picking it up. A little while later one turns to the other and asks “was that a hundred dollar bill on the ground?” To which the other replies “nope, if it was someone would have picked it up already.”
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28029044

Someone has to actually reach down and pickup that 100 dollar bill on the ground.

I don't find the 5 times richer statement.
However untill someone builds and operates a supersonic aircraft profitably, then hypersonic and even supersonic travel is fantasy.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Virgin Galactic Hypersonic P2P Travel
« Reply #26 on: 08/21/2023 08:51 pm »
Again, if Concorde couldn't make a profit and died then no prospect of any other exotic faster than sound transport will be successful. It's fantasy.
The world is 5 times richer than it was when Concorde was released.

Is that in relative money?
If so why isn't a supersonic aircraft running and making a profit now?
that’s in inflation-adjusted dollars. Multiple companies are trying.

The “efficient market hypothesis” isn’t magic. It take a long time to do a project like this, there are barriers all over the place.

Quote
Two economists are walking down the street and pass by a hundred dollar bill without picking it up. A little while later one turns to the other and asks “was that a hundred dollar bill on the ground?” To which the other replies “nope, if it was someone would have picked it up already.”
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28029044

Someone has to actually reach down and pickup that 100 dollar bill on the ground.

I don't find the 5 times richer statement.
However untill someone builds and operates a supersonic aircraft profitably, then hypersonic and even supersonic travel is fantasy.
LOL, and if everyone agreed with you, no one would even try.

I appreciate you making so clear how circular this sort of argument is.


10 “It’s fantasy so why try?”
20 “No one has done it yet because no one has tried.”
30 “No one has tried because it’s fantasy.”
40 GOTO 10

(Not that I necessarily think Virgin Galactic is anything close to a good investment…)

(The 5 times richer statement just comes from the world GDP in 2022 adjusted for 2000 dollars divided by the world GDP in 1969 adjust for 2000 year dollars.)
« Last Edit: 08/21/2023 08:55 pm by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline daedalus1

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Re: Virgin Galactic Hypersonic P2P Travel
« Reply #27 on: 08/21/2023 09:16 pm »
We'll have to agree to disagree as they say.

Offline trimeta

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Re: Virgin Galactic Hypersonic P2P Travel
« Reply #28 on: 08/21/2023 09:20 pm »
Speaking of whether Virgin Galactic is anything close to a good investment, have they made any statements about hypersonic P2P travel in the past few years? Based on articles like the recent one from Ars Technica, they think their path to profitability is the Delta class of suborbital tourism vehicles, which aren't very different from the existing SpaceShipTwo craft except perhaps being easier to build and maintain.

While some have theorized that P2P travel is where the real money would be, if Virgin Galactic themselves aren't interested in it, it doesn't much matter (for Virgin Galactic at least) whether or not it's a good business model.

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Virgin Galactic Hypersonic P2P Travel
« Reply #29 on: 08/21/2023 11:55 pm »
Again, if Concorde couldn't make a profit and died then no prospect of any other exotic faster than sound transport will be successful. It's fantasy.
The world is 5 times richer than it was when Concorde was released.

Is that in relative money?
If so why isn't a supersonic aircraft running and making a profit now?
that’s in inflation-adjusted dollars. Multiple companies are trying.

The “efficient market hypothesis” isn’t magic. It take a long time to do a project like this, there are barriers all over the place.

Quote
Two economists are walking down the street and pass by a hundred dollar bill without picking it up. A little while later one turns to the other and asks “was that a hundred dollar bill on the ground?” To which the other replies “nope, if it was someone would have picked it up already.”
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28029044

Someone has to actually reach down and pickup that 100 dollar bill on the ground.

I don't find the 5 times richer statement.
However untill someone builds and operates a supersonic aircraft profitably, then hypersonic and even supersonic travel is fantasy.
Hermeus Aerospace has a proposal for a hypersonic airliner, the Halcyon, and if that aircraft is built, it remains to be seen if the Halcyon will be profitable if ordered by Virgin Galactic or some other airline willing to buy the Halcyon.

Offline daedalus1

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Re: Virgin Galactic Hypersonic P2P Travel
« Reply #30 on: 08/22/2023 06:21 am »
There's been no end of proposals, that isn't the problem. No one's built one let alone run it at a profit. Fantasy

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Virgin Galactic Hypersonic P2P Travel
« Reply #31 on: 08/23/2023 01:03 am »
Could Virgin Galactic be inching towards buying a future hypersonic airliner design?

Quote
Reaction Engines is actively pursuing the future of space access through high-speed horizontal launch vehicles with a view to fulfilling critical missions for stakeholders in both the U.K. and the U.S. The project, “Combining innovative UK air-breathing propulsion with US airframe capability for space access” was competitively selected for a Phase 1 award under the UK Space Agency’s new International Bilateral Fund.

Reaction Engines is well known for its development of hypersonic technology focused on air-breathing propulsion. By enabling high-speed flight, well beyond the capabilities of current aircraft systems, Reaction Engines offers a step-change in efficiency compared with conventional rocket propulsion.

Reaction Engines has chosen to work with Virgin Galactic on this project. Virgin Galactic’s unique, reusable, suborbital spaceflight system allows them to fly aircraft to the boundary between air and space. After extensive development, Virgin Galactic recently began commercial operations with monthly flights to space for private astronaut and research customers.

Under the planned bilateral activity, the U.K. and U.S. Companies will explore the combination of their capabilities, potential use-cases, and development paths. Neither Virgin Galactic or Reaction Engines are strangers to the benefits of strong U.S. and U.K. collaboration and this opportunity to engage is in step with Reaction’s strategic mission of developing hypersonic and space access solutions, by harnessing the allied capabilities and a shared vision of the future. This joint undertaking, as supported by the UKSA, elevates this mission to the global stage and has the potential to set the course for future collaboration.

Oliver Nailard, Senior Business Development Manager at Reaction Engines said: “Innovation and collaboration has always been key in progressing our technology. Working alongside Virgin Galactic, a Company already operating spaceplanes, fits our company mission and offers an interesting U.S. opportunity for us to explore.”

Steve Justice, Senior Vice President, Spaceline Programs & Engineering at Virgin Galactic said: “We are seeing the emergent benefits of what the U.S. and U.K can achieve in the joint pursuit of space access and operations. This collaboration with Reaction Engines, studying advanced airframe-propulsion integration concepts, contributes to building a legacy.”

https://reactionengines.co.uk/reaction-chosen-for-high-speed-transportation-concepts/

Offline deltaV

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Re: Virgin Galactic Hypersonic P2P Travel
« Reply #32 on: 08/23/2023 04:22 pm »
If Hypersonic P2P travel saves 15 hours compared to usual subsonic air travel and you have 30 years of life expectancy left that saved time is 1/17,520 of your overall remaining life. If hypersonic P2P travel has worse than 1 in 17,520 chance of killing you then hypersonic travel costs more in life expectancy from crashes than it gains you in saved time. This is a very rough back of the envelope calculation but I think the conclusion is right: hypersonic P2P travel needs to be ~100x more reliable than any rocket ever to make sense. That's possible but very hard. The Virgin Galactic program has had two fatal accidents (one killing test pilots, one killing employees) so I doubt they have the safety culture to pull this off.

 

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