POLL: which launchers will launch successfully in 2025?

[deltaV]

See last year's poll at https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=60118.20. The only change to the rules this year is I removed the "other" options since they didn't seem very useful. Feel free to mention other launchers in comments. Like last year I only included launchers from democratic countries.

Rules:
Liftoff must occur by the end of 2025 UTC time. I don't think any of these vehicles had their first successful flight in 2024 or earlier but just in case I messed up, earlier dates count.

A launch counts as successful if the payload (or stage if there’s no payload) survives the shutdown of the engines into an orbit that’s at least an almost-LEO, "abort once around" orbit. Success or failure at other activities such as post-orbital engine firings or recovery of any stages for reuse is irrelevant.

[DeimosDream]

Looks like you are missing Skyroot Aerospace's Vikram 1 (India).
I'm guessing only 40% chance so I wouldn't have voted for them anyway in this poll, but I thought they needed a shout out.

[Hog]

I don't see OmegA listed in the poll? j/k   

[JulesVerneATV]

Blue Origin's 2nd New Glenn rocket launch will fly twin NASA Mars probes

https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/blue-origin-sets-launch-date-nasa-escapade-mars-probes-2nd-new-glenn-rocket-liftoff

[AndrewM]

Neutron delayed to 2026 unsurprisingly.

Rocket Lab Announces Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results, Posts Record Quarterly Revenue of $155m, Representing 48% Year-on-Year Growth at Record Gross Margin

Updating our Neutron schedule that has the rocket arriving at Rocket Lab Launch Complex 3 in Q1, 2026, with the first launch thereafter, pending the successful completion of the vehicle’s qualification testing and acceptance program.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Except for New Glenn, none of the others have done it yet, with Spectrum on Flight 2 and KAIROS on Flight 3 the only ones left with any realistic chances of doing so (neither of the 2 flights has have a date yet so it will be at least somewhat remote).

[Tywin]

Except for New Glenn, none of the others have done it yet, with Spectrum on Flight 2 and KAIROS on Flight 3 the only ones left with any realistic chances of doing so (neither of the 2 flights has have a date yet so it will be at least somewhat remote).

Except for one missing in the list, is the Hanbit-Nano from Innospace, to launch in this November...

[AmigaClone]

Except for New Glenn, none of the others have done it yet, with Spectrum on Flight 2 and KAIROS on Flight 3 the only ones left with any realistic chances of doing so (neither of the 2 flights has have a date yet so it will be at least somewhat remote).

Except for one missing in the list, is the Hanbit-Nano from Innospace, to launch in this November...

Hanbit-Nano has a chance of being the first successful orbital launch from the Alcântara Space Center and Brazil.

[Tywin]

Except for New Glenn, none of the others have done it yet, with Spectrum on Flight 2 and KAIROS on Flight 3 the only ones left with any realistic chances of doing so (neither of the 2 flights has have a date yet so it will be at least somewhat remote).

Except for one missing in the list, is the Hanbit-Nano from Innospace, to launch in this November...

Hanbit-Nano has a chance of being the first successful orbital launch from the Alcântara Space Center and Brazil.

Lets hope

[Chris Huys]

Except for New Glenn, none of the others have done it yet, with Spectrum on Flight 2 and KAIROS on Flight 3 the only ones left with any realistic chances of doing so (neither of the 2 flights has have a date yet so it will be at least somewhat remote).

Except for one missing in the list, is the Hanbit-Nano from Innospace, to launch in this November...

Hanbit-Nano has a chance of being the first successful orbital launch from the Alcântara Space Center and Brazil.

Lets hope

https://aviationweek.com/space/launch-vehicles-propulsion/innospace-hanbit-nano-inaugural-launch-slips-december
Aviation Week Staff November 21, 2025

South Korean launch services company Innospace is delaying the inaugural launch of its Hanbit-Nano rocket to Dec. 17 to address avionics issues. The launch, which the company at one point planned for 2024, has slipped repeatedly—most recently to Nov. 22. The launch window at the Alcantara Space...

[JulesVerneATV]

There has been talk of the Private Sector helping the Mars sample mission

also talk of Bezos doing contribution to MSR now

NASA Exploring Alternative Mars Sample Return Methods
https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-exploring-alternative-mars-sample-return-methods/

Evaluating Blue Origin’s Mars Telecom Orbiter Proposal
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2025/08/blue-origin-mto-proposal/

ManufacturerRocket Lab,  UC Berkeley's Space Sciences Lab, ERAU / Northern Arizona University, NASA Goddard, EscaPADE A/B Mission
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=63874.0
Cape Canaveral

[deltaV]

OK time for a similar poll for 2026. New Glenn launched successfully so I'll remove it. People suggested Skyroot Aerospace's Vikram 1 and Innospace's Hanbit-Nano so I'll add them. Terran R seems to be scheduled for 2026 so I'll add it. Any other vehicles to add or remove for next year's poll?

[Tywin]

OK time for a similar poll for 2026. New Glenn launched successfully so I'll remove it. People suggested Skyroot Aerospace's Vikram 1 and Innospace's Hanbit-Nano so I'll add them. Terran R seems to be scheduled for 2026 so I'll add it. Any other vehicles to add or remove for next year's poll?

Eclipse-Firefly, Miura-PLD, Zero-Interstellar, Prime-Orbex, Zephyr-Latitude, Aurora from Reaction Dynamics, VLM from Brazil, Aventura-1 from TLON, Argentina.

[Chris Huys]

OK time for a similar poll for 2026. New Glenn launched successfully so I'll remove it. People suggested Skyroot Aerospace's Vikram 1 and Innospace's Hanbit-Nano so I'll add them. Terran R seems to be scheduled for 2026 so I'll add it. Any other vehicles to add or remove for next year's poll?

Long March 12A - Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology
Zhuque-3 - LandSpace
Tianlong-3 - Space Pioneer
Kinetica-3 - CAS Space

[catdlr]

OK time for a similar poll for 2026. New Glenn launched successfully so I'll remove it. People suggested Skyroot Aerospace's Vikram 1 and Innospace's Hanbit-Nano so I'll add them. Terran R seems to be scheduled for 2026 so I'll add it. Any other vehicles to add or remove for next year's poll?

Be my guest to start one now, or wait until officially on Jan 1. 

 Tony

[AmigaClone]

I would suggest a second, similar poll that would just ask about maiden launches - no matter the outcome.

[catdlr]

I would suggest a second, similar poll that would just ask about maiden launches - no matter the outcome.

There is no necessity to become overly enthusiastic about polls. Excessive details tend to introduce confusion. For a new rocket, simply append the suffix (Maiden) to the launcher name in the poll list.

[deltaV]

I would suggest a second, similar poll that would just ask about maiden launches - no matter the outcome.

IIUC you'd prefer the poll asked what launchers would get to liftoff rather than get to orbit. I'm curious which type of poll people would prefer.

People who would prefer the 2026 poll to count liftoff regardless of outcome, please like this post. Like my next post if you'd prefer the 2026 poll to count success like the 2025 one did.

[deltaV]

I would suggest a second, similar poll that would just ask about maiden launches - no matter the outcome.

IIUC you'd prefer the poll asked what launchers would get to liftoff rather than get to orbit. I'm curious which outcome people would prefer.

People who would prefer the 2026 poll to count liftoff regardless of outcome, please like this post. I'll create another post in a minute to count people who prefer the 2026 poll to count success like the 2025 one did.

OK like this post if you'd prefer the 2026 poll to count launches only if successful like the 2025 one did.

[catdlr]

A portion of this will need to be carried over to the 2026 poll thread.

https://twitter.com/raz_liu/status/2006171469357744430

Ace of Razgriz
@raz_liu
·
Recap of the plan which Chinese LSPs made in the beginning of 2025.