Quote from: JH on 04/05/2017 06:57 amSo there are 5 vehicles with an estimated LEO payload capacity of >30,000 kg actively being developed in the US right now? SpaceX, Falcon HeavyULA, Vulcan/AcesBlue Origin, New GlennOrbital ATK, NGL 500 XLand, obviously SLS.Strange times.Six...SpaceX, BFR
So there are 5 vehicles with an estimated LEO payload capacity of >30,000 kg actively being developed in the US right now? SpaceX, Falcon HeavyULA, Vulcan/AcesBlue Origin, New GlennOrbital ATK, NGL 500 XLand, obviously SLS.Strange times.
ZWell really this is a paper rocket that will get built if the government gives them the money, why on earth would they do that SX have alternatives and BO is also spending its own money to make something with similar capabilities. Nothing about congress would surprise me but funding development of this thing would seem like madness.
Quote from: corneliussulla on 05/16/2017 10:20 amZWell really this is a paper rocket that will get built if the government gives them the money, why on earth would they do that SX have alternatives and BO is also spending its own money to make something with similar capabilities. Nothing about congress would surprise me but funding development of this thing would seem like madness.Can't the same be said for some of the others? Vulcan ACES is as much paper as NGL. New Glenn is no further along than NGL. Etc. - Ed Kyle
Quote from: edkyle99 on 05/16/2017 01:51 pmQuote from: corneliussulla on 05/16/2017 10:20 amZWell really this is a paper rocket that will get built if the government gives them the money, why on earth would they do that SX have alternatives and BO is also spending its own money to make something with similar capabilities. Nothing about congress would surprise me but funding development of this thing would seem like madness.Can't the same be said for some of the others? Vulcan ACES is as much paper as NGL. New Glenn is no further along than NGL. Etc. - Ed KyleThey are all well past the paper stage as they are all building and testing primary propulsion - except NGL, which is still heavily based on built and tested STS/SLS hardware.
I think the point above was more about the money. Of the six US heavy or super-heavy lift vehicles in development, only NGL and SLS are primarily dependent on USG funding for development and missions. Vulcan is at least trying to be commercially viable, and its dev funding is primarily from ULA. FH, NG, and ITS are almost entirely privately funded through development and don't need USG payloads to make development worthwhile.
... It seems to me that there are similarities in state-of-progress.
If the Pentagon passes on Vulcan, ULA will drop it in an instant. Just like Orbital ATK, ULA is getting some money from the government for this early development work. Falcon Heavy is being developed to compete for EELV work, and yes, SpaceX is also getting a piece of Pentagon funding help. (I would be surprised to see FH continue to fly if it were to lose the EELV competition.)
SLS is pretty much in the same boat as NGL - a USG built launcher for USG purposes.
Quote from: envy887 on 05/16/2017 08:30 pmSLS is pretty much in the same boat as NGL - a USG built launcher for USG purposes.SLS is a NASA design, with NASA serving as the oversight general contractor in a way. NGL is an Orbital ATK project and design. It is not all government funded, so erase that fallacy from your mind. The current development efforts are proceeding on a cost-sharing basis, just like the comparable ULA and SpaceX efforts. And don't kid yourself about Vulcan being commercially competitive. If Vulcan does not win a Pentagon contract, it won't get built, in my opinion. The same is true of NGL and, I believe, Falcon Heavy.Falcon Heavy only has two or three commercial contracts, and only a handful of total planned launches at present. It could very well prosper, but that is not a certainty. I see NGL as part of an "all hands on deck" effort to replace RD-180. Multiple efforts are underway. Not all will succeed. I'm not willing to bet for or against any of these efforts at this time. - Ed Kyle
From what I've seen from the last SpaceX launch, it was 6 tons to GTO. Their website says 5.5 tons. So, they have improved the F9 to the point it can cut out some FH launches.
So while SLS is solely funded by NASA for NASA launches, NGL is just mostly funded by the DOD, mostly for DOD launches. Neither is an enviable position from my view.
The “chairman’s mark” version of the [fiscal year 2018 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)], released by the committee June 26, includes a section restricting Air Force funding of vehicle development under the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle program. Under that provision, the Air Force would be limited to funding new engines, integration of those engines with vehicles, and related capabilities to support national security launches.The section includes a specific prohibition against funding “the development of new launch vehicles under such program.” It also specifically defines a “rocket propulsion system” that can be funded as a first-stage rocket engine or motor. “The term does not include a launch vehicle, an upper stage, a strap-on motor, or related infrastructure,” it states.The Defense Department opposes that language in the bill. In a document submitted to the committee and obtained by SpaceNews, it warned that the language would force it to abandon some ongoing vehicle development efforts and rely primarily on ULA’s Delta 4 and SpaceX’s Falcon 9.[...]“Section 1615 appears to force the Department to end the more than $300 [million] investment in the industry-developed systems and instead use a modernized Delta IV launch vehicle and/or the Falcon 9,” it stated, referring to the section of the NDAA that contains the funding restriction. The Falcon 9, it noted, cannot handle many national security missions, while the Delta 4 is significantly more expensive than alternative existing vehicles.
It seems as if the NGL rocket already has the "components" to make one from existing boosters and developments. How long if they started today, could they have a complete rocket ready to test and launch? Could it beat Vulcan or New Glenn to the launch pad?
... And they don't have experience being a launch provider....
Quote from: Coastal Ron on 06/29/2017 02:44 pm... And they don't have experience being a launch provider....Pegasus. Taurus. Minotaur. Antares.