Author Topic: Who will compete with SpaceX? The last two and next two years.  (Read 313324 times)

Offline Jim

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Maybe SpaceX will develop a second, dissimilar rocket design and take both halves of the NSS market...


Not going to happen.  Spacex doesn't even want their part
« Last Edit: 08/04/2017 12:49 am by Jim »

Offline Jim

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And yes, it could be ready around when Vulcan-ACES or NG are flying reliably.

Never, Spacex doesn't develop products early or on time.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Maybe SpaceX will develop a second, dissimilar rocket design and take both halves of the NSS market...


Not going to happen.  Spacex doesn't even want their part
It definitely does seem that any launches requiring VI SpaceX is not enthusiastic about. But in order to be able to bid for the HI ones they had to be certified to do VI.

Offline Jim

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Awards should start around 2020, unless they do another five plus year in advance 'competition.'


Spacex won't have anything new certified for such missions.

Offline envy887

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And yes, it could be ready around when Vulcan-ACES or NG are flying reliably.

Never, Spacex doesn't develop products early or on time.

Nor do Blue or ULA.

Offline Jim

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And yes, it could be ready around when Vulcan-ACES or NG are flying reliably.

Never, Spacex doesn't develop products early or on time.

Nor do Blue or ULA.

never doesn't apply to them

Offline envy887

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And yes, it could be ready around when Vulcan-ACES or NG are flying reliably.

Never, Spacex doesn't develop products early or on time.

Nor do Blue or ULA.

never doesn't apply to them

Their projects are just as liable to delays. Neither are guaranteed to beat ITS to certification.

Offline Robotbeat

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Could be SpaceX doesn't want ITS to be certified.
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Offline Jim

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Their projects are just as liable to delays. Neither are guaranteed to beat ITS to certification.

No, not the same thing.  Spacex never meets schedules.  They have unrealistic milestones.
« Last Edit: 08/04/2017 01:29 am by Jim »

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Their projects are just as liable to delays. Neither are guaranteed to beat ITS to certification.

No, not the same thing.  Spacex never meets schedules.  They have unrealistic milestones.
The same can be said of NASA for the last 15 years.

Please Jim. We know space development seemingly always takes longer or more money than the initial estimates. SpaceX is not immune to this optimistic engineering view of what can be done in specified amount of time. But then most other engineering developments also have this same problem with initial schedules and milestones being unrealistic. Software projects are even worse.

But I do take to hart your complaint in that SpaceX management should have learned by now to do better on identifying duration of tasks, So that the error in schedule and slips should be less significant. I think they have done a lot on their operational side for the near future mission. But they need to expand that out to a better handle on stuff further out. Sometimes having challenging milestones somewhat unrealistic they are used as incentives to make progress and not sitting on one's hands waiting for one's turn in the schedule. Sometimes this method works and sometimes it creates the opposite effect of creating longer delays because of errors and wrongly done work.

Offline wolfpack

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Not really. ULA functions at the whim of its parent companies and main customer, and can only adapt as they see fit.

Words on paper.

I once worked for a company that became another company in about a month. Things can happen fast in private enterprise. The only real impediment to change is called the United States Congress...

Offline envy887

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Not really. ULA functions at the whim of its parent companies and main customer, and can only adapt as they see fit.

Words on paper.

I once worked for a company that became another company in about a month. Things can happen fast in private enterprise. The only real impediment to change is called the United States Congress...

Where's the money for that change coming from? Boeing and Lockmart own ULA lock, stock, and barrel. They aren't giving up those profits for less than several billion. They also aren't interested in sinking those profits back into ULA so long as they are pretty much guaranteed for years.

Offline Lar

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Elon's scheduling algorithm:
"Do the laws of physics prevent an earlier date than X?"
"If everything went right, would we hit X?"

If yes to both, X is the date. If no to either, iterate for X+1day :)
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"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline wolfpack

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Where's the money for that change coming from? Boeing and Lockmart own ULA lock, stock, and barrel. They aren't giving up those profits for less than several billion. They also aren't interested in sinking those profits back into ULA so long as they are pretty much guaranteed for years.

Issue stock and sell it. An investment bank (or whatever they're called now) can do that in a matter of weeks.

But enough about all of that. I just don't see things changing a whole bunch in the next few years. SpaceX are great, but they overpromise and under-deliver. Blue Origin is who-knows-where with their PowerPoint designs. Bezos has other interests and by many reports not really a nice guy to work for. I have no idea what its like to work at BO but I sincerely hope it's not tirades and beratings. That doesn't launch rockets.

Everyone breathe easy. I look forward to seeing Atlas Vs, Delta IVs launching along with F9s and FHs for a while. Vulcan sounds interesting and it would be really cool to fly on all American engines since we don't seem to be making any headway in relations with Russia (nor they with us).

Offline meberbs

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Where's the money for that change coming from? Boeing and Lockmart own ULA lock, stock, and barrel. They aren't giving up those profits for less than several billion. They also aren't interested in sinking those profits back into ULA so long as they are pretty much guaranteed for years.

Issue stock and sell it. An investment bank (or whatever they're called now) can do that in a matter of weeks.
You really don't understand companies like Lockheed and Boeing if you think there is any reasonable chance of that happening.

But enough about all of that. I just don't see things changing a whole bunch in the next few years. SpaceX are great, but they overpromise and under-deliver.
On schedule, sure. Although this is not really much different than other large aerospace. They change the details of their forward plans frequently, because they are willing to adjust when they realize there is a better path that is worth the cost of switching to. Their broad strokes goals haven't really changed, and they are closer to accomplishing some of them than any reasonable expectation of when they first started.

Blue Origin is who-knows-where with their PowerPoint designs. Bezos has other interests and by many reports not really a nice guy to work for. I have no idea what its like to work at BO but I sincerely hope it's not tirades and beratings. That doesn't launch rockets.
A full scale production engine is not powerpoint, I have spoken with Blue Origin employees, and indications are that it is a great place to work. Did you know they can bring their dogs in with them to work? Really seemed similar to a startup culture, with good benefits, snacks and places in the office to relax, which of course are part of incentives to work hard and put in overtime. And the kind of people who would go to work there are the ones who would be excited enough about what they are doing to willingly do so.

Offline woods170

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Maybe SpaceX will develop a second, dissimilar rocket design and take both halves of the NSS market...


Not going to happen.  Spacex doesn't even want their part
Correct. Hence the lack of priority for VI. Getting certified for NSS launches really is all about disruption, not about putting ULA out of business.

Offline Jim

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Maybe SpaceX will develop a second, dissimilar rocket design and take both halves of the NSS market...


Not going to happen.  Spacex doesn't even want their part
Correct. Hence the lack of priority for VI. Getting certified for NSS launches really is all about disruption, not about putting ULA out of business.

Same goes for developing a second, dissimilar rocket design.  Nothing could be further from Spacex's plans

Offline rakaydos

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Maybe SpaceX will develop a second, dissimilar rocket design and take both halves of the NSS market...


Not going to happen.  Spacex doesn't even want their part
Correct. Hence the lack of priority for VI. Getting certified for NSS launches really is all about disruption, not about putting ULA out of business.

Same goes for developing a second, dissimilar rocket design.  Nothing could be further from Spacex's plans
Other than being single-stick, I'm not sure how you can call ITS and ITSy a "Similar" rocket design to F9.

Offline chipguy

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A full scale production engine is not powerpoint, I have spoken with Blue Origin employees, and indications are that it is a great place to work. Did you know they can bring their dogs in with them to work?

Some people might not consider others bringing their dogs, children etc to a shared work space great at all.

Unprofessional, disruptive, unhygienic, allergenic and prone to interpersonal animosity whether overt or otherwise.
« Last Edit: 08/04/2017 05:04 pm by chipguy »

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Maybe SpaceX will develop a second, dissimilar rocket design and take both halves of the NSS market...


Not going to happen.  Spacex doesn't even want their part
Correct. Hence the lack of priority for VI. Getting certified for NSS launches really is all about disruption, not about putting ULA out of business.

Same goes for developing a second, dissimilar rocket design.  Nothing could be further from Spacex's plans
Other than being single-stick, I'm not sure how you can call ITS and ITSy a "Similar" rocket design to F9.
But ITSy the 9m is an SHLV not a HLV. It is overkill for all DOD payloads. Also I doubt that VI would ever even be considered. It is just that it's per launch costs would be comparable to that of an F9. That element is what could make things interesting.

But also as I stated we are talking 6+ years out NET 2023 for ITSy operational status. This thread is about what will be the case in just 2 years EOY 2019. So what may be the case four years after that is OT.

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