Maybe SpaceX will develop a second, dissimilar rocket design and take both halves of the NSS market...
And yes, it could be ready around when Vulcan-ACES or NG are flying reliably.
Quote from: AncientU on 08/03/2017 09:17 pmMaybe SpaceX will develop a second, dissimilar rocket design and take both halves of the NSS market...Not going to happen. Spacex doesn't even want their part
Awards should start around 2020, unless they do another five plus year in advance 'competition.'
Quote from: AncientU on 08/03/2017 11:28 pmAnd yes, it could be ready around when Vulcan-ACES or NG are flying reliably.Never, Spacex doesn't develop products early or on time.
Quote from: Jim on 08/04/2017 12:51 amQuote from: AncientU on 08/03/2017 11:28 pmAnd yes, it could be ready around when Vulcan-ACES or NG are flying reliably.Never, Spacex doesn't develop products early or on time.Nor do Blue or ULA.
Quote from: envy887 on 08/04/2017 12:58 amQuote from: Jim on 08/04/2017 12:51 amQuote from: AncientU on 08/03/2017 11:28 pmAnd yes, it could be ready around when Vulcan-ACES or NG are flying reliably.Never, Spacex doesn't develop products early or on time.Nor do Blue or ULA.never doesn't apply to them
Their projects are just as liable to delays. Neither are guaranteed to beat ITS to certification.
Quote from: envy887 on 08/04/2017 01:06 amTheir projects are just as liable to delays. Neither are guaranteed to beat ITS to certification.No, not the same thing. Spacex never meets schedules. They have unrealistic milestones.
Not really. ULA functions at the whim of its parent companies and main customer, and can only adapt as they see fit.
Quote from: envy887 on 08/03/2017 07:00 pmNot really. ULA functions at the whim of its parent companies and main customer, and can only adapt as they see fit.Words on paper.I once worked for a company that became another company in about a month. Things can happen fast in private enterprise. The only real impediment to change is called the United States Congress...
Where's the money for that change coming from? Boeing and Lockmart own ULA lock, stock, and barrel. They aren't giving up those profits for less than several billion. They also aren't interested in sinking those profits back into ULA so long as they are pretty much guaranteed for years.
Quote from: envy887 on 08/04/2017 02:39 amWhere's the money for that change coming from? Boeing and Lockmart own ULA lock, stock, and barrel. They aren't giving up those profits for less than several billion. They also aren't interested in sinking those profits back into ULA so long as they are pretty much guaranteed for years.Issue stock and sell it. An investment bank (or whatever they're called now) can do that in a matter of weeks.
But enough about all of that. I just don't see things changing a whole bunch in the next few years. SpaceX are great, but they overpromise and under-deliver.
Blue Origin is who-knows-where with their PowerPoint designs. Bezos has other interests and by many reports not really a nice guy to work for. I have no idea what its like to work at BO but I sincerely hope it's not tirades and beratings. That doesn't launch rockets.
Quote from: Jim on 08/04/2017 12:48 amQuote from: AncientU on 08/03/2017 09:17 pmMaybe SpaceX will develop a second, dissimilar rocket design and take both halves of the NSS market...Not going to happen. Spacex doesn't even want their partCorrect. Hence the lack of priority for VI. Getting certified for NSS launches really is all about disruption, not about putting ULA out of business.
Quote from: woods170 on 08/04/2017 03:53 pmQuote from: Jim on 08/04/2017 12:48 amQuote from: AncientU on 08/03/2017 09:17 pmMaybe SpaceX will develop a second, dissimilar rocket design and take both halves of the NSS market...Not going to happen. Spacex doesn't even want their partCorrect. Hence the lack of priority for VI. Getting certified for NSS launches really is all about disruption, not about putting ULA out of business. Same goes for developing a second, dissimilar rocket design. Nothing could be further from Spacex's plans
A full scale production engine is not powerpoint, I have spoken with Blue Origin employees, and indications are that it is a great place to work. Did you know they can bring their dogs in with them to work?
Quote from: Jim on 08/04/2017 04:26 pmQuote from: woods170 on 08/04/2017 03:53 pmQuote from: Jim on 08/04/2017 12:48 amQuote from: AncientU on 08/03/2017 09:17 pmMaybe SpaceX will develop a second, dissimilar rocket design and take both halves of the NSS market...Not going to happen. Spacex doesn't even want their partCorrect. Hence the lack of priority for VI. Getting certified for NSS launches really is all about disruption, not about putting ULA out of business. Same goes for developing a second, dissimilar rocket design. Nothing could be further from Spacex's plansOther than being single-stick, I'm not sure how you can call ITS and ITSy a "Similar" rocket design to F9.