Author Topic: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3  (Read 343345 times)

Offline capoman

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #120 on: 03/24/2022 04:25 pm »
  If they get the initial network up in two more years, I wonder if they'd early retire the first shell next to get rid of the non ISL sats.

 Have they abandoned the 7,000 sat V-Band idea?

Yeah, I would guess they would replace the non-ISL sats at first opportunity. It would reduce the need to keep creating more local ground stations, which are also quite expensive.  It would also allow for more pricing competition on ground station access, as they can use more remote stations. I think the newer generation satellites have higher bandwidth capability as well.

Online wannamoonbase

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #121 on: 03/24/2022 04:35 pm »
  If they get the initial network up in two more years, I wonder if they'd early retire the first shell next to get rid of the non ISL sats.

 Have they abandoned the 7,000 sat V-Band idea?

Yeah, I would guess they would replace the non-ISL sats at first opportunity. It would reduce the need to keep creating more local ground stations, which are also quite expensive.  It would also allow for more pricing competition on ground station access, as they can use more remote stations. I think the newer generation satellites have higher bandwidth capability as well.

I think they'd use them until they were replaced.  If Starship is making LEO deliveries in 2 years it may not take long to replace them.
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Online DanClemmensen

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #122 on: 03/24/2022 05:18 pm »
  If they get the initial network up in two more years, I wonder if they'd early retire the first shell next to get rid of the non ISL sats.

 Have they abandoned the 7,000 sat V-Band idea?

Yeah, I would guess they would replace the non-ISL sats at first opportunity. It would reduce the need to keep creating more local ground stations, which are also quite expensive.  It would also allow for more pricing competition on ground station access, as they can use more remote stations. I think the newer generation satellites have higher bandwidth capability as well.
Will Starlink have cross-plane ISL, or just in-plane ISL? Cross-plane is harder but has some dramatic advantages: a true mesh forwarding network in the sky. Speed-of-light in vacuum is 300,000 Km/sec versus speed in fiber of 200,000 Km/sec, and ISL is straight line, not follow-the-fiber-path. This means the Starlink latency will be smaller than fiber latency in almost all cases if cross-plane ISL is implemented.  For applications that are extremely sensitive to latency, it may make sense to use Starlink even when the endpoints have very good land-line connections.

In-plane ISL is a lot simpler because the satellites don't move much with respect to each other and repointing to another satellite is very rare. Cross-plane ISL will generally require more frequent repointing and more sophisticated forwarding table updates. Also, for in-plane you only need a total of two links. (All of this is for lasers or point-to-point RF).

Offline capoman

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #123 on: 03/24/2022 06:30 pm »
  If they get the initial network up in two more years, I wonder if they'd early retire the first shell next to get rid of the non ISL sats.

 Have they abandoned the 7,000 sat V-Band idea?

Yeah, I would guess they would replace the non-ISL sats at first opportunity. It would reduce the need to keep creating more local ground stations, which are also quite expensive.  It would also allow for more pricing competition on ground station access, as they can use more remote stations. I think the newer generation satellites have higher bandwidth capability as well.
Will Starlink have cross-plane ISL, or just in-plane ISL? Cross-plane is harder but has some dramatic advantages: a true mesh forwarding network in the sky. Speed-of-light in vacuum is 300,000 Km/sec versus speed in fiber of 200,000 Km/sec, and ISL is straight line, not follow-the-fiber-path. This means the Starlink latency will be smaller than fiber latency in almost all cases if cross-plane ISL is implemented.  For applications that are extremely sensitive to latency, it may make sense to use Starlink even when the endpoints have very good land-line connections.

In-plane ISL is a lot simpler because the satellites don't move much with respect to each other and repointing to another satellite is very rare. Cross-plane ISL will generally require more frequent repointing and more sophisticated forwarding table updates. Also, for in-plane you only need a total of two links. (All of this is for lasers or point-to-point RF).

Hard to say, but a pure guess might be that v2 satellites might have this capability, but 1.5 does not. Pure speculation though, but Elon wanting to get v2 up there ASAP might point to this capability as possibly being one of the reasons. It would be a huge improvement in capability and flexibility.
« Last Edit: 03/24/2022 06:33 pm by capoman »

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #124 on: 03/24/2022 08:09 pm »
  If they get the initial network up in two more years, I wonder if they'd early retire the first shell next to get rid of the non ISL sats.

 Have they abandoned the 7,000 sat V-Band idea?

Maybe so.  According to its November 19, 2018 grant, SpaceX must deploy 50% of their fleet within 6 years.  They may ask for an extension.

SpaceX has argued that V-band-only terminals are not yet viable and therefore their Ku-band operations should not be encroached upon by Dish's proposed terrestrial system in those frequencies.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #125 on: 03/24/2022 08:54 pm »
How much is “50%”? 7500?

Also, regardless of what frequency they’d use, are SpaceX still planning much lower altitudes, ie VLEO at 340km?
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Online abaddon

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #126 on: 03/24/2022 09:15 pm »
Also, regardless of what frequency they’d use, are SpaceX still planning much lower altitudes, ie VLEO at 340km?
I wonder what a solar storm like the one that took down most of that Starlink batch recently might do to a VLEO constellation at 340km.

Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #127 on: 03/24/2022 09:30 pm »
How much is “50%”? 7500?

Also, regardless of what frequency they’d use, are SpaceX still planning much lower altitudes, ie VLEO at 340km?

The system consists of 7,518 at satellites at 335 km to 346 km.

Quote
On March 1, 2017, SpaceX filed an application for a proposed NGSO fixed satellite service (FSS) satellite system in the V-band. The proposed SpaceX system consists of the addition of V-band frequencies to the 4,425 NGSO satellites previously authorized to allow the use of both Ku- and V-band spectrum for user links, and both Ka- and V-band spectrum for gateway links and tracking, telemetry, and command functions. SpaceX also proposes to add a very-low-Earth orbit
(VLEO) NGSO constellation, consisting of 7,518 satellites operating at altitudes from 335 km to 346 km, using V-band spectrum for all links to and from associated earth stations. The V-band frequencies proposed are: 37.5-42.0 GHz (space-to-Earth), and 47.2-50.2 GHz, and 50.4-51.4 GHz (Earth-to-space).

https://www.fcc.gov/document/fcc-grants-spacex-ngso-v-band-authorization

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #128 on: 03/24/2022 09:58 pm »
Those are separate questions.
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Offline RedLineTrain

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #129 on: 03/24/2022 11:29 pm »
Those are separate questions.

SpaceX's Gen2 amended application does have VLEO slots, but don't know if it can overlap successfully with approved V-band system (if I am understanding your implication correctly).

Gen2 in VLEO
5,280 @ 340km
5,280 @ 345km
5,280 @ 350km
3,600 @ 360km

V-Band in VLEO
2,493 @ 335.9km
2,478 @ 340.8km
2,547 @ 345.6km

Offline su27k

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #130 on: 03/26/2022 02:16 am »
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1507505633259630599

Quote
Starlink, at least so far, has resisted all hacking & jamming attempts

Offline su27k

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #131 on: 03/29/2022 02:36 am »
From Elon Musk's Axel Springer interview recently: https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-interview-axel-springer-tesla-war-in-ukraine-2022-3

Quote
Döpfner: What happens if the Russians and Chinese are targeting satellites? Is that also a threat for Starlink?

Musk: It was interesting to view the Russian anti-satellite demonstration a few months ago in the context of this conflict. Because that caused a lot of strife for satellite operators. It even had some danger for the space station, where there are Russian cosmonauts. So why did they do that? It was a message in advance of the Ukraine invasion. If you attempt to take out Starlink, this is not easy because there are 2000 satellites. That means a lot of anti-satellite missiles. I hope we do not have to put this to a test, but I think we can launch satellites faster than they can launch anti-satellites missiles.

Offline su27k

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #132 on: 03/29/2022 02:42 am »
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1508565936449622018

Quote
Starlink 🛰 team too! Expecting over 4200 Starlink satellites in operation within 18 months, which is ~2/3 of all active satellites of Earth.

Offline vsatman

Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #133 on: 04/03/2022 08:27 pm »
SpaceX's Gen2 amended application does have VLEO slots, but don't know if it can overlap successfully with approved V-band system (if I am understanding your implication correctly).
Gen2 in VLEO
5,280 @ 340km
5,280 @ 345km
5,280 @ 350km
3,600 @ 360km

V-Band in VLEO
2,493 @ 335.9km
2,478 @ 340.8km
2,547 @ 345.6km

Generation 2 and V band network will use different frequencies ... And for V band Starlink cannot use all existing terminals..

Offline leovinus

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #134 on: 04/06/2022 02:42 pm »
U.S. Air Force testing SpaceX Starlink as a communications option for supporting F-35A fighter jet
Quote
The Starlink system provided speeds up to 30 times faster during the week long test.
https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/u-s-air-force-testing-spacex-starlink-as-a-communications-option-for-supporting-f-35a-fighter-jet/


Online wannamoonbase

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #135 on: 04/06/2022 03:01 pm »
U.S. Air Force testing SpaceX Starlink as a communications option for supporting F-35A fighter jet
Quote
The Starlink system provided speeds up to 30 times faster during the week long test.
https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/u-s-air-force-testing-spacex-starlink-as-a-communications-option-for-supporting-f-35a-fighter-jet/



I saw that yesterday, the 30x faster is amazing and will get some very series attention from military planners.

Can't wait to see it on commercial flights.

Edit: Also, can't wait to see how many users Starlink adds per month 1 or 2 years down the road.
« Last Edit: 04/06/2022 03:02 pm by wannamoonbase »
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #136 on: 04/06/2022 03:25 pm »
I suggest (based on past constellations and some quick back of the envelope cost estimates for replenishment) about 1 million users is the approximate crossover point to being profitable, or at least self-sustaining. Of course, contracts with the military help profitability tremendously as they tend to be higher margin, so they might already be close to profitable if they stopped investing a massive amount to grow the capability.

They’re at, what, a quarter million right now?
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Online JayWee

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #137 on: 04/06/2022 04:05 pm »
I suggest (based on past constellations and some quick back of the envelope cost estimates for replenishment) about 1 million users is the approximate crossover point to being profitable, or at least self-sustaining. Of course, contracts with the military help profitability tremendously as they tend to be higher margin, so they might already be close to profitable if they stopped investing a massive amount to grow the capability.

They’re at, what, a quarter million right now?
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1493358044989767683

That's 250k * $110 * 12 = $330M/year

Online wannamoonbase

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #138 on: 04/06/2022 04:28 pm »
I suggest (based on past constellations and some quick back of the envelope cost estimates for replenishment) about 1 million users is the approximate crossover point to being profitable, or at least self-sustaining. Of course, contracts with the military help profitability tremendously as they tend to be higher margin, so they might already be close to profitable if they stopped investing a massive amount to grow the capability.

They’re at, what, a quarter million right now?
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1493358044989767683

That's 250k * $110 * 12 = $330M/year

I think the rate of adding weekly subscriber's is the important metric until the customer base is larger or stable-ish.  IIRC the latest production number was 5000 terminals per week.  That's far to slow and we know that Starlink wants to get to much higher numbers but they want to get the price down too. 

In typical Elon fashion I'd think they want a 10x or more production rate.  I'm sure the market in north America is in the millions, maybe 10's of millions and then globally once the laser interlinks have global coverage is less dependent on downlink locations then the global demand could suck up  maybe 100,000 terminals per week for some time.

I think Starlink could be a $500B to $1T business, maybe $2T, within the next 10 years.   If SpaceX maintains a controlling interesting they could end up with more profit than they know how to spend on colonizing the Moon and Mars.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Online freddo411

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #139 on: 04/06/2022 05:17 pm »

I think the rate of adding weekly subscriber's is the important metric until the customer base is larger or stable-ish.  IIRC the latest production number was 5000 terminals per week.  That's far to slow and we know that Starlink wants to get to much higher numbers but they want to get the price down too. 

... snip ...


So adding 250,000 new customers this year is "too slow" ?    That's a 100% growth year over year.  $660 million dollars per year total revenue stream on starlink by EOY 2022.   I estimate this is probably on par with revenue from 10 paying launches, and/or on par with the yearly revenue from NASA projects (dragon, HLS).   I'm sure Elon and SX would like it to be faster, but really, it's hard to complain about that.

I suspect you are correct; that's not yet enough revenue to support 2022's investments/spending on launch, satellite construction, terminal construction, and starship development.   That number is (very roughly) probably billions a year.

Keep in mind that there are other constraints beside user terminals.   Ground stations must be setup, including their internet connections and gateways.   Landing rights must be secured in each country, and various legal frameworks must be accommodated for each.   The satellite network has significant capacity constraints, currently allowing only a few customers per sq km.  Satellite construction needs to be about **5 per day**, maybe more.

So, lot's of work to be done. Growth in users and revenue are impressive, but not yet covering all expenses.   

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