Author Topic: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3  (Read 343395 times)

Offline OTV Booster

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #100 on: 03/21/2022 08:39 pm »
With the kind of barrage jamming need to cover any good sized area, a small network of triangulators could pinpoint the source and feed the coordinates to interested parties in no time. No hi falutin HARMs or other over priced gear needed.

Don't think there is a need for ground based triangulators. The Starlink Constellation itself can sweep for emitter sources with instant location of the emitter. Since the Starlink beam footprint is small enough the line of sight from the emitter to the comsat is more than accurate enough to initiate extreme remedial action. Even more amusing is that a Starlink comsat could scan for and located a jamming emitter then pass that ground co-ordinate to the remedial forces almost instantaneously. Said remedial force in the future could be an airborne drone with a Starlink terminal commanded through the Starlink network. :o

 :) This means Starlink Constellation is truly the Skynet from the Terminator franchise, no matter the denials from Musk :)

Darn, @DanClemmensen ninja me.

That would be the U.S. getting directly involved in the war. Not a small decision.
No, no, no, no, no. StarLink is operating in Ukraine. If it's receiving unlicensed RF interference it is entirely reasonable to lodge a complaint with the local licensing authority and more than reasonable to extend full cooperation in locating the source of the interference.

The fact that RF compliance is enforced with 122mm Katyusha rockets is a local matter and above Elon's pay grade.  ;D


Edit: I missed the mark on the Katyusha's. If Ukraine can integrate a StarLink into a drone fast enough to make it worthwhile Elon should lodge a firm objection every time it happens and when this sorry mess is over hire their obviously talented engineers and build a StarLink factory there.
« Last Edit: 03/21/2022 08:51 pm by OTV Booster »
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Offline ulm_atms

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #101 on: 03/21/2022 08:52 pm »
With the kind of barrage jamming need to cover any good sized area, a small network of triangulators could pinpoint the source and feed the coordinates to interested parties in no time. No hi falutin HARMs or other over priced gear needed.

Don't think there is a need for ground based triangulators. The Starlink Constellation itself can sweep for emitter sources with instant location of the emitter. Since the Starlink beam footprint is small enough the line of sight from the emitter to the comsat is more than accurate enough to initiate extreme remedial action. Even more amusing is that a Starlink comsat could scan for and located a jamming emitter then pass that ground co-ordinate to the remedial forces almost instantaneously. Said remedial force in the future could be an airborne drone with a Starlink terminal commanded through the Starlink network. :o

 :) This means Starlink Constellation is truly the Skynet from the Terminator franchise, no matter the denials from Musk :)

Darn, @DanClemmensen ninja me.

That would be the U.S. getting directly involved in the war. Not a small decision.
Honest question.  What's the difference between that and providing a C&C ability for the Ukraine military which they(SpaceX) is currently doing?

Offline Bob Niland

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #102 on: 03/21/2022 09:52 pm »

Edit: I missed the mark on the Katyusha's. If Ukraine can integrate a StarLink into a drone fast enough to make it worthwhile Elon should lodge a firm objection every time it happens and when this sorry mess is over hire their obviously talented engineers and build a StarLink factory there.
Even if the mobile-enabled SL dishes don't have some limits that would inherently forestall direct weaponizing of them, the first hint of such use could easily trigger crafting a firmware download to effect it. I suspect that's already one of various contingencies already planned for (another being capture of dishes by .ru, for which a "maximum brick" update may already be on the shelf).
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Offline OTV Booster

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #103 on: 03/23/2022 02:12 am »

Edit: I missed the mark on the Katyusha's. If Ukraine can integrate a StarLink into a drone fast enough to make it worthwhile Elon should lodge a firm objection every time it happens and when this sorry mess is over hire their obviously talented engineers and build a StarLink factory there.
Even if the mobile-enabled SL dishes don't have some limits that would inherently forestall direct weaponizing of them, the first hint of such use could easily trigger crafting a firmware download to effect it. I suspect that's already one of various contingencies already planned for (another being capture of dishes by .ru, for which a "maximum brick" update may already be on the shelf).
Or, max brick is already installed and just waiting for a go. Better yet, it has to be explicitly given a periodic no go or it becomes another brick in the wall. They'll know if it's been hijacked.
We are on the cusp of revolutionary access to space. One hallmark of a revolution is that there is a disjuncture through which projections do not work. The thread must be picked up anew and the tapestry of history woven with a fresh pattern.

Offline su27k

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #104 on: 03/23/2022 03:30 am »
Starlink reaches 250,000 subscribers as it targets aviation and other markets

Quote from: SpaceNews
“We currently have 250,000 subscribers, and that’s across consumer, enterprise and many businesses,” he said. SpaceX is manufacturing “close to eight satellites a day” at its Redmond, Washington, facility as the company builds out its constellation.

Beyond consumer broadband, he cited demand for Starlink from other markets, such as cellular backhaul and services for schools. “There’s just a number of different people coming out of the woodwork that need connectivity,” he said.

<snip>

SpaceX has developed an aviation antenna currently being tested, he said, and is working to get it certified on “various aircraft.” He didn’t give an anticipated schedule for completing that, but said the company planned to offer a service for commercial airliners that would be indistinguishable from conventional internet access. “We’re designing a service where every single passenger on that plane can stream simultaneously.”


https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1505902947552669698

Quote
In a smallsat constellation panel, SpaceX’s Jonathan Hofeller says the company is building “close to 8” Starlink satellites a day at its Redmond, Wash., facility. Vertical integration has cut the cost of its user terminal by 2/3rds from the original version. #SATShow
« Last Edit: 03/23/2022 03:46 am by su27k »

Offline su27k

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #105 on: 03/23/2022 03:44 am »
Starlink price increase: $110/month, $599 for equipment.

Offline su27k

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #106 on: 03/23/2022 04:18 am »
https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1506345670726275083

Quote
Shotwell: SpaceX started Starlink with a beta service "because, honestly, we didn't know what we were doing and we weren't even sure that the network was going to work."



Shotwell adds that she has 3 Starlink terminals at her ranch in Texas, and that it's both faster and cheaper than the previous service she had.

"There were many very unhappy customers of broadband in the United States and so we're learning how to make them happy."



Shotwell: One of the more fascinating parts of the Starlink business is setting up service in a new country. SpaceX has "been quite pleased" with the adoption of "Starlink in countries that we thought would take a really long time."



Shotwell: SpaceX is "not working with the government on Starlink, other than to try to sell them the commercial service we have available to them."

"The way we are working with government on Starlink is trying to get them comfortable buying in a more commercial way."

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #107 on: 03/23/2022 12:39 pm »
Quote from: SpaceNews
....
SpaceX has developed an aviation antenna currently being tested, he said, and is working to get it certified on “various aircraft.”
....
The US SOCOM eagerly awaits their first Starlink connected MQ-20 aircraft to enter service.  ;D

Offline capoman

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #108 on: 03/23/2022 01:02 pm »
Starlink price increase: $110/month, $599 for equipment.

Not very happy about this. I've been on the waiting list from Day 1, and was willing to wait, but in Canada the price of $129/m was a bit higher than I was willing to pay (I have what amounts to 10mb service for $79), but wanted to support SpaceX and it's vision, but now with it going up to $140/m (+13% tax where I live), is getting a bit much for the extra speed, and I'm now considering cancelling my deposit. Starlink, in order to be successful also has to be affordable for the rural market it's going for. People like myself that have marginal rural internet will think twice before paying that much for service. I will be retiring soon, and it's just too much to take on.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #109 on: 03/23/2022 01:16 pm »
Starlink price increase: $110/month, $599 for equipment.

Not very happy about this. I've been on the waiting list from Day 1, and was willing to wait, but in Canada the price of $129/m was a bit higher than I was willing to pay (I have what amounts to 10mb service for $79), but wanted to support SpaceX and it's vision, but now with it going up to $140/m (+13% tax where I live), is getting a bit much for the extra speed, and I'm now considering cancelling my deposit. Starlink, in order to be successful also has to be affordable for the rural market it's going for. People like myself that have marginal rural internet will think twice before paying that much for service. I will be retiring soon, and it's just too much to take on.
A 10% price increase over 2 years matches exactly the inflation rate over the last 2 years, especially if incorporating the chip availability issues.

Still sucks, but it’s understandable. And the demand for the product is very, very high. Adjusting price allows them to afford to scale up faster.

Greater competition will help the price by taking some of the pressure off of the demand backlog.
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Offline Tomness

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #110 on: 03/23/2022 01:21 pm »
Starlink price increase: $110/month, $599 for equipment.

Not very happy about this. I've been on the waiting list from Day 1, and was willing to wait, but in Canada the price of $129/m was a bit higher than I was willing to pay (I have what amounts to 10mb service for $79), but wanted to support SpaceX and it's vision, but now with it going up to $140/m (+13% tax where I live), is getting a bit much for the extra speed, and I'm now considering cancelling my deposit. Starlink, in order to be successful also has to be affordable for the rural market it's going for. People like myself that have marginal rural internet will think twice before paying that much for service. I will be retiring soon, and it's just too much to take on.
A 10% price increase over 2 years matches exactly the inflation rate over the last 2 years, especially if incorporating the chip availability issues.

Still sucks, but it’s understandable. And the demand for the product is very, very high. Adjusting price allows them to afford to scale up faster.

Greater competition will help the price by taking some of the pressure off of the demand backlog.

Better than HughesNet I had, don't mind the price increase for inflation. Just don't make it like Cable every 2 years goes up $50 when you get off contract.

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #111 on: 03/23/2022 01:24 pm »
I understand people hate price increases, but for the level of performance in rural areas it's priceless.

I was surprised when they said last week that they are up to 250,000 subscribers now.  It will be interesting to see how quickly that number ramps.

More subscribers and that first shell with laser interlinks is going to be very interesting.  The global footprint will be real.
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #112 on: 03/23/2022 01:33 pm »
Yeah, I think once Starship comes into the scene (and the other reusable launchers) and Kuiper and others, the combination of improved supply and competition should help lower the cost.
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Offline aero

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #113 on: 03/23/2022 03:14 pm »
Does 250,000 subscribers make $25 M cash flow?

edit - that is, monthly. I guess annual cash flow would be more impressive. More like $300 M.
« Last Edit: 03/23/2022 03:16 pm by aero »
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Offline freddo411

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #114 on: 03/23/2022 03:21 pm »
Does 250,000 subscribers make $25 M cash flow?

edit - that is, monthly. I guess annual cash flow would be more impressive. More like $300 M.

Now 330 million, after the increase.

Offline niwax

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #115 on: 03/23/2022 03:43 pm »
Does 250,000 subscribers make $25 M cash flow?

edit - that is, monthly. I guess annual cash flow would be more impressive. More like $300 M.

Now 330 million, after the increase.

Plus $130 million for the terminals. Note also that the 250000 subscriber number was mentioned quite some time ago, possibly even late last year. This recent presentation hadn't been updated to more current numbers. It is quite possible that Starlink becomes a billion dollar business over the next year, either through subscriber growth or more serious business/government deals.
« Last Edit: 03/23/2022 03:47 pm by niwax »
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Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #116 on: 03/23/2022 03:47 pm »
Does 250,000 subscribers make $25 M cash flow?

edit - that is, monthly. I guess annual cash flow would be more impressive. More like $300 M.

Now 330 million, after the increase.

Plus $130 million for the terminals. Not also that the 250000 subscriber number was mentioned quite some time ago, possibly even late last year. This recent presentation hadn't been updated to more current numbers. It is quite possible that Starlink becomes a billion dollar business over the next year, either through subscriber growth or more serious business/government deals.


I think you mean $1B by revenue.  I think that is very likely.

There is enough excited behind anything Elon does and Starlink is up and working, that if it was IPO'd today I think it would be huge, $100B, maybe more.  However, if they can ramp deployment numbers and start deploying Starlinks with Starship, this could be much much bigger than $100B.  Maybe a half trillion or a trillion given how people throw money around these days.
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Offline capoman

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #117 on: 03/23/2022 05:23 pm »
I understand people hate price increases, but for the level of performance in rural areas it's priceless.

I was surprised when they said last week that they are up to 250,000 subscribers now.  It will be interesting to see how quickly that number ramps.

More subscribers and that first shell with laser interlinks is going to be very interesting.  The global footprint will be real.

Thing is, even 10Mb/s allows me to WFH and stream at 1080P. The increase in performance really won't get used a lot. I would love to see a second tier at maybe 50Mb/s at $99CAD. I would go for that. Since terminals are sold at a loss right now, and demand is higher than availability, I don't see them offering lower tiers any time soon. Not unlike Tesla's situation.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #118 on: 03/23/2022 07:15 pm »
Right. And you don’t need 10 times as much capacity to go from 10Mbps to 100Mbps, more like 2 times the capacity. The “capacity factor” or proportional “utilization rate” goes way down as peak bandwidth per user goes up.

Comcast alone had $116B in revenue last year. It might be 20 years before Starlink gets to that level (after incorporating TV, etc), but there is a heck of a lot of money in this consumer market and just about as much in the business/enterprise/government side.

It’s not crazy that SpaceX+Starlink could have a trillion dollar market cap in 10-20 years (in fact, if I didn’t think we were in for a mild recession or whatever, I’d say 5 years).

$1-2 billion in annualized Starlink revenue (which they’ll likely get to by the end of this year) is about equal to their revenue from other portions of their business. I expect in a year or two, Starlink alone will exceed their other revenue sources combined.

SpaceX, as of October, had a $100B market cap.
« Last Edit: 03/23/2022 07:25 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline Nomadd

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Re: Starlink : General Discussion - Thread 3
« Reply #119 on: 03/23/2022 08:29 pm »
  If they get the initial network up in two more years, I wonder if they'd early retire the first shell sats next to get rid of the non ISL sats.

 Have they abandoned the 7,000 sat V-Band idea?
« Last Edit: 04/06/2022 04:58 pm by Nomadd »
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