Flight 12 (Booster 19, Ship 39) pre-flight preparations

[crandles57]

Wonder if there’s any chance at all of a launch of Flight 12 still this year. I’m leaning toward no, but I wonder if there are official/semi-official estimates of a NET date in 2026.

With 2.5 months left in the year, and all the testing on that highly complex OLM-2 mount and pad.  They need to test with 18 on it to make sure all the lines and plumbing work.  No way a flight by the end of the year.

While not anywhere near even semi official, we could possibly put some minimum time and best estimate times for several of the stages? I am thinking something like this

Work_____________________________________Min Est_______________Best Est

Ship timeline
Complete ship 39.X test tank testing ??___________???_________________???
Stack ship 39_______________________________2 weeks?_____________4 weeks?
Further work pre pressure cryo tests_____________1 week?_____________2 weeks?
Roll to Massey & back,  pressure cryo tests________4 days?______________1-2 weeks?
Further build add flaps engines__________________2 weeks?____________4 weeks?
Roll to Massey & back, static fire_________________3 days?_____________1 week?
Final ship preps______________________________2 weeks?____________3 weeks?
Roll to pad, pad ship connections testing__________1 week?_____________2 weeks?

Total_______________________________________9 weeks?+___________17-18 weeks?+


Booster 18 timeline

Finish B18.x test tank testing____________________1 week?_____________??
Finish stacking booster_________________________1 week?_____________2 weeks?
Further work pre pressure cryo tests______________1 week?_____________2 weeks?
Roll to Massey (& back),  pressure cryo tests________4 days?_____________1 week?
Further build add flaps engines___________________2 week?_____________4 weeks?
Roll to pad, Pad testing with booster_______________2 weeks?____________4 weeks?
Static fire____________________________________3 days?_____________1 week?
Final booster preps_____________________________2 weeks?____________3 weeks?
Roll to pad, stack ship and launch__________________1 week?____________2 weeks?

Total_________________________________________11 weeks?__________20+ weeks?


I feel like I am really on the low side for the minimum time estimates above so 11 weeks minimum time and more like 20+ weeks seems to make 2025 launch impossible and more like March 2026 or later? No doubt different people with different knowledge would put in different estimates. Is this miles off?

Edit to add:
Raptor Timeline

39 Raptors needed. While numbers in 30s have been seen many may have been tested to destruction and they may still be tweaking design so none may be flight ready yet.
At the optimistic end, they may shortly be finished tweaking and optimising design and may be able to quickly ramp up to a production rate of 3 per week so perhaps as little as 14 weeks?
Less optimistically, there may be another month or two of design tweaking and then there may be a slow ramp up in production rate and there could also further time to figure out what testing should be done on the final design version and getting that testing done.

So while Raptor 3 engine could be a constraint on when flight 12 happens, I am not sure we have much detail to constrain when flight 12 will be from this.

Masseys timeline
Pressure and cryo site locations are looking near complete - may need some testing with vehicles present.
Pressure and cryo tests on booster and ship to do.
Static fire location perhaps approaching completion?
Ship transport stand (crab) may need adapting to v3? or replaced?
Static fire will need testing - probably some testing without a ship present then testing with a ship present
Static fire

Several things to do, but I am not seeing these taking long enough to be a constraint on when flight 12 occurs other than as part of booster or ship timeline.

Pad Timeline

The pad and GSE is beginning to look more like approaching completion but there is doubtless lots still to do:

Ship quick disconnect hasn't been attached to tower yet, needs to be attached with power & supply lines to quick disconnect plate.
High pressure lines all the way to pad may not be completed yet?
Testing those supply lines and valves to and at pad and tower without booster or ship.
Test chopstick lift of booster and stacking on pad.
Testing connections to and supplies to booster. (propellants, Nitrogen, CO2?, electrical, ...)
Test chopstick lift of ship and stacking on booster
Testing connections to and supplies to ship. (propellants, Nitrogen, CO2?, electrical, ...)
Testing v3 booster and ship loading procedures.
Launch wet dress rehearsal.

Lots to do at pad but it seems to me like the pad could well be waiting for booster and ship to be ready for some of the work so the better time constraints come from the booster and ship timelines. However other people may feel more able to add more items and put time estimates on the Masseys, pad and raptor timelines than I feel able to do. Do feel free to suggest extra items or timescales to improve this timescale list of things to do.

[wannamoonbase]

Wonder if there’s any chance at all of a launch of Flight 12 still this year. I’m leaning toward no, but I wonder if there are official/semi-official estimates of a NET date in 2026.

With 2.5 months left in the year, and all the testing on that highly complex OLM-2 mount and pad.  They need to test with 18 on it to make sure all the lines and plumbing work.  No way a flight by the end of the year.

While not anywhere near even semi official, we could possibly put some minimum time and best estimate times for several of the stages? I am thinking something like this

Work_____________________________________Min Est_______________Best Est

Ship timeline
Complete ship 39.X test tank testing ??___________???_________________???

Stack ship 39_______________________________2 weeks?_____________4 weeks?

Further work pre pressure cryo tests_____________1 week?_____________2 weeks?

Roll to Massey & back,  pressure cryo tests________4 days?______________1-2 weeks?

Further build add flaps engines__________________2 weeks?____________4 weeks?

Roll to Massey & back, static fire_________________3 days?_____________1 week?

Final ship preps______________________________2 weeks?____________3 weeks?

Roll to pad, pad ship connections testing__________1 week?_____________2 weeks?

Total_______________________________________9 weeks?+___________17-18 weeks?+


Booster 18 timeline

Finish B18.x test tank testing____________________1 week?_____________??

Finish stacking booster_________________________1 week?_____________2 weeks?

Further work pre pressure cryo tests______________1 week?_____________2 weeks?

Roll to Massey (& back),  pressure cryo tests________4 days?_____________1 week?

Further build add flaps engines___________________2 week?_____________4 weeks?

Roll to pad, Pad testing with booster_______________2 weeks?____________4 weeks?

Static fire____________________________________3 days?_____________1 week?

Final booster preps_____________________________2 weeks?____________3 weeks?

Roll to pad, stack ship and launch__________________1 week?____________2 weeks?

Total_________________________________________11 weeks?__________20+ weeks?


I feel like I am really on the low side for the minimum time estimates above so 11 weeks minimum time and more like 20+ weeks seems to make 2025 launch impossible and more like March 2026 or later? No doubt different people with different knowledge would put in different estimates. Is this miles off?

All of those things need to be done.  New pad, new vehicles etc.

However, I think the critical path to flight 12 can go through Raptor 3 production.

McGregor has seen engines in the 30's, but how many of those are flight ready?

They have plenty to do toward a V3 flight and only 83 days left in the year, including the biggest holidays of the year.


Edit: I would love to see January, but also wouldn't be surprised if it's March.

[catdlr]

However, I think the critical path to flight 12 can go through Raptor 3 production.

McGregor has seen engines in the 30's, but how many of those are flight ready?



Edit: I would love to see January, but also wouldn't be surprised if it's March.

On the Raptor 3 status, you may want to read this post:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=53555.msg2722639#msg2722639

[catdlr]

Lewis Knaggs@lewisknaggs42
·
S39.1 has moved off it's work stand in MB2

Erik Fraser@efraser77
·
No sooner had S38 left Mega Bay 2 then SpaceX moved onto the next thing. The top of a possible S39.1 test tank is now visible in the bay.
📸 http://nsf.live/starbase
@NASASpaceflight

https://x.com/lewisknaggs42/status/1977116746310914099

https://x.com/efraser77/status/1977123988028768609

[catdlr]

Lewis Knaggs@lewisknaggs42
S39 has begun construction in MB2, would expect the nose cone and payload bay to roll out in the next day or two.

https://twitter.com/lewisknaggs42/status/1977406329359888852

[catdlr]

Drum roll, the nose cone has appeared, and it might be the docking adapter for the depot refueling.

S39 nose cone rolled out of Starfactory and into Mega Bay 2, sporting new docking hardware for on-orbit refueling, seen on the @LabPadre live cameras. Also, through the pez door, new orange covers for the COPV tanks, as well as the new lift/landing points.

https://twitter.com/AshleyKillip/status/1977674607252697168

As a reference, these two ports are similar to the docking ports featured on the SpaceX Space Refueling web pages — the orange-covered COPV tanks attached to the back wall, which were seen earlier through the pez door in the nose cone row.

Photo credit for the picture of the Pez door and docking adapter ports from LabPadre. (NSF Starbase Livestream did not show that, so I am unable to screen capture an image; NSF might have caught that appearance on another camera that could be posted later, in which case I'll update this post.)

[catdlr]

Interstellar Gateway - IGW
@interstellargw
The first next-generation V3 SpaceX Starship nosecone rolling out, sporting design changes such as a smoothed tile line for the entire heatshield, repositioned Starlink antennas, and a new catch point design.

Interstellar Gateway - IGW@interstellargw
·
The end of V2 meets the beginning of V3…

S39's nosecone, the first V3 Starship, rolled out of Starfactory this morning.

https://twitter.com/interstellargw/status/1977684407201984904

https://twitter.com/interstellargw/status/1977676052400066867

mod edit: added downloaded images for easier access to full-res photos

[catdlr]

Lewis Knaggs@lewisknaggs42
·

Changes we have seen so far:
1. Starlink terminals have moved positions
2. Catch pin design has changes
3. Some of the internal welds have changes
4. Docking ports for orbital refilling
5. Heat shield patter has changes with a tapered edge everywhere
6. No lift points just catch pin and stabilizer points

https://twitter.com/lewisknaggs42/status/1977707896222761168

[catdlr]

Lewis Knaggs@lewisknaggs42
F2:4 Rolled out for B18, just one more section after this.

https://twitter.com/lewisknaggs42/status/1978122670223847559

[catdlr]

Lewis Knaggs@lewisknaggs42
Yep just another 4 ring barrel. Credit @TrackingTheSB

https://x.com/lewisknaggs42/status/1978134711256965212

[ChrisC]

Interstellar Gateway - IGW
@interstellargw
The first next-generation V3 SpaceX Starship nosecone rolling out, sporting design changes such as a smoothed tile line for the entire heatshield, repositioned Starlink antennas, and a new catch point design.

The heatshield shows a rectangular bulge that is presumably one of the Starlink antennas, and presumably there's another one on the other side.  Then there's another pair on the leeward side, also covered in tiles.  So, first, they are using some kind of RF-transparent materials for those tiles.  Second, they apparently really want to limit the engineering / unique P/N count of these designs and just stick with one, hence the tile-covered Starlink antenna on the leeward side, when it probably doesn't need tiles back there. I noted the exact same tile pattern on both.

[catdlr]

Interstellar Gateway - IGW
@interstellargw
The first next-generation V3 SpaceX Starship nosecone rolling out, sporting design changes such as a smoothed tile line for the entire heatshield, repositioned Starlink antennas, and a new catch point design.

The heatshield shows a rectangular bulge that is presumably one of the Starlink antennas, and presumably there's another one on the other side.  Then there's another pair on the leeward side, also covered in tiles.  So, first, they are using some kind of RF-transparent materials for those tiles.  Second, they apparently really want to limit the engineering / unique P/N count of these designs and just stick with one, hence the tile-covered Starlink antenna on the leeward side, when it probably doesn't need tiles back there. I noted the exact same tile pattern on both.

Another item to note in those pictures is the brand-new trim tiles that line the interface between the tile surface and the ship's skin surface (think of bathroom edging tiles) and decrease the likelihood of tile flaking, as demonstrated in the recent Scott Manley video of tiles ripping off during ascent.

[SpaceLizard]

There are also 2 interesting hexagonal-pyramid shaped tiles visible between the top of the nose vent thingy and the top of the forward flaps.

[catdlr]

There are also 2 interesting hexagonal-pyramid shaped tiles visible between the top of the nose vent thingy and the top of the forward flaps.

It would help me a lot if you could at least provide the link to the post so I can find what you are referring to.

Is it these two items?

Asymmetrical positioned.  I would like to see the other side, if there are two positions there as well.  Then I would like to see if a group of two pairs is positioned near the aft end.  If they are, then I'll give you my opinion.

[SpaceLizard]

There are also 2 interesting hexagonal-pyramid shaped tiles visible between the top of the nose vent thingy and the top of the forward flaps.

It would help me a lot if you could at least provide the link to the post so I can find what you are referring to.

Is it these two items?

Asymmetrical positioned.  I would like to see the other side, if there are two positions there as well.  Then I would like to see if a group of two pairs is positioned near the aft end.  If they are, then I'll give you my opinion.

Yes! Those are the ones.

[meekGee]

There are also 2 interesting hexagonal-pyramid shaped tiles visible between the top of the nose vent thingy and the top of the forward flaps.

Odd indeed.
Remember the reason for hex tiles was to prevent gaps from being collinear, to disrupt plasma flow?
With something like this, even the single gaps are kinda protected.

Of installed throughout, they'll make such a hypothetical ship look very... distinct.

Many questions:
What effect will it have on the ship's aerodynamics? Will it be like a golf ball? How about forces acting on the tiles?

Or are these just covers of some sort.

[SpaceLizard]

There are also 2 interesting hexagonal-pyramid shaped tiles visible between the top of the nose vent thingy and the top of the forward flaps.

Odd indeed.
Remember the reason for hex tiles was to prevent gaps from being collinear, to disrupt plasma flow?
With something like this, even the single gaps are kinda protected.

Of installed throughout, they'll make such a hypothetical ship look very... distinct.

Many questions:
What effect will it have on the ship's aerodynamics? Will it be like a golf ball? How about forces acting on the tiles?

Or are these just covers of some sort.

My guess would be covers, but for what?...

[catdlr]

There are also 2 interesting hexagonal-pyramid shaped tiles visible between the top of the nose vent thingy and the top of the forward flaps.

Odd indeed.
Remember the reason for hex tiles was to prevent gaps from being collinear, to disrupt plasma flow?
With something like this, even the single gaps are kinda protected.

Of installed throughout, they'll make such a hypothetical ship look very... distinct.

Many questions:
What effect will it have on the ship's aerodynamics? Will it be like a golf ball? How about forces acting on the tiles?

Or are these just covers of some sort.

My guess would be covers, but for what?...

I was going to wait for additional shots of the other side and then the aft section to be delivered in a few weeks to give an opinion, but I'll put my two 2-cents now:   LIDAR for fuel tank rendezvous.

[DanClemmensen]

There are also 2 interesting hexagonal-pyramid shaped tiles visible between the top of the nose vent thingy and the top of the forward flaps.

Odd indeed.
Remember the reason for hex tiles was to prevent gaps from being collinear, to disrupt plasma flow?
With something like this, even the single gaps are kinda protected.

Of installed throughout, they'll make such a hypothetical ship look very... distinct.

Many questions:
What effect will it have on the ship's aerodynamics? Will it be like a golf ball? How about forces acting on the tiles?

Or are these just covers of some sort.

My guess would be covers, but for what?...

I was going to wait for additional shots of the other side and then the aft section to be delivered in a few weeks to give an opinion, but I'll put my two 2-cents now:   LIDAR for fuel take rendezvous.

LIDAR would require them to be transparent in the laser frequency being used. Maybe RADAR instead?

[catdlr]

There are also 2 interesting hexagonal-pyramid shaped tiles visible between the top of the nose vent thingy and the top of the forward flaps.

Odd indeed.
Remember the reason for hex tiles was to prevent gaps from being collinear, to disrupt plasma flow?
With something like this, even the single gaps are kinda protected.

Of installed throughout, they'll make such a hypothetical ship look very... distinct.

Many questions:
What effect will it have on the ship's aerodynamics? Will it be like a golf ball? How about forces acting on the tiles?

Or are these just covers of some sort.

My guess would be covers, but for what?...

I was going to wait for additional shots of the other side and then the aft section to be delivered in a few weeks to give an opinion, but I'll put my two 2-cents now:   LIDAR for fuel take rendezvous.

LIDAR would require them to be transparent in the laser frequency being used. Maybe RADAR instead?

I go either way. I know Elon hates Lidar, so radar emitter and receiver (pairs) would make sense.  When I get a good look at the other side and when the after section comes rolling out of the factory with the same two sets of "pyramid tiles", I'll let everyone see them.