Flight 12 (Booster 19, Ship 39) pre-flight preparations

[AndrewM]

Updates and discussion thread for Starship flight 12 ahead of flight.

Separate threads will be created nearer launch. This will be the 1st flight of Starship 'V3'. Launch is currently targeting early 2026.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1949995479179436331 [July 28]

This is V2 Starship.

V3 hopefully launches end of year.

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1956569897594483036 [Aug 16]

Starship Flight 12: Ship 39's nosecone is in the air in the Starsfactory as they work on stacking this vehicle.

http://nsf.live/starbase

mod edit 20-Oct: changed launch target from end of 2025 to early 2026
mod edit 21-Nov: changed title to reflect B18 anomaly

[catdlr]

Starship Gazer@StarshipGazer
·
A view of the windward tiled side of Starship 39's nose cone in the Starfactory tonight. The first Version 3 next-gen Starship is being assembled.

8/17/25

https://x.com/StarshipGazer/status/1957328059117293805

[catdlr]

Shaun Gisler@lifeatstagezero
Took a drive out in the evening to peak through the windows. Here is 39. Total of 5 cones visible to me. They seem to have much confidence in events going forward.

[Masshole]

Elon posted renders of V3 Starship:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1955736230127374751

Raptor 3 seems like the pacing item...

[Steven Pietrobon]

From the above X post.

[catdlr]

Ceaser G@CeaserG33
Interesting tank spotted at the Starfactory. What could this be used for?
@NASASpaceflight

Maybe a Ver3 upgrade, or maybe an experiment?

https://twitter.com/CeaserG33/status/1967075984118861949

[wannamoonbase]

Ceaser G@CeaserG33
Interesting tank spotted at the Starfactory. What could this be used for?
@NASASpaceflight

Maybe a Ver3 upgrade, or maybe an experiment?

https://twitter.com/CeaserG33/status/1967075984118861949

Would it make more sense to be inverted, as in the bottom of a tank into the downcomer?

[bronconut]

Could it be the start of a Starship tanker? Cone would be top of the ship. Rest below is tank structures.

[MM54]

The big butterfly valve (?) at the top feels very test article to me, but the big brackets on the side are... strange.

Hair-brained notion is that this sits inside the booster methane tank and those brackets support the gridfin motor/actuators... the question there would be why (or I'm interpreting scale all wrong and this is too big/small for that). Perhaps this flares out to 9m below where we can see, and this is the inside top of the booster, with that interstitial space for all the stuff that previously was on the forward dome under the HSR (avionics, batteries, etc.)?

[Kiwi53]

Elon posted renders of V3 Starship:

No more "cowbell" ullage thrusters?
Or is this a simplified render?

[catdlr]

Ceaser G@CeaserG33
Interesting tank spotted at the Starfactory. What could this be used for?
@NASASpaceflight

Maybe a Ver3 upgrade, or maybe an experiment?

https://x.com/CeaserG33/status/1967075984118861949

Would it make more sense to be inverted, as in the bottom of a tank into the downcomer?

I didn't have time to finish my posting for significant images, here is the other:

https://twitter.com/AshleyKillip/status/1967340800955846957

[catdlr]

Ceaser G@CeaserG33
Interesting tank spotted at the Starfactory. What could this be used for?
@NASASpaceflight

Maybe a Ver3 upgrade, or maybe an experiment?

https://x.com/CeaserG33/status/1967075984118861949

https://twitter.com/ENNEPS/status/1968016055395406224

https://twitter.com/CSI_Starbase/status/1968013425398911459

Zack Golden@CSI_Starbase

The mystery tank has now gone into Megabay 1, which makes it a lot less likely that it's related to orbital propellant transfer hardware.

This may end up being a component of Booster 18 or another test tank that has yet to roll out of Starfactory.

https://twitter.com/CSI_Starbase/status/1968043422314615090

[catdlr]

Ceaser G@CeaserG33
Interesting tank spotted at the Starfactory. What could this be used for?
@NASASpaceflight

Maybe a Ver3 upgrade, or maybe an experiment?

https://x.com/CeaserG33/status/1967075984118861949

https://x.com/ENNEPS/status/1968016055395406224

https://x.com/CSI_Starbase/status/1968013425398911459

Zack Golden@CSI_Starbase

The mystery tank has now gone into Megabay 1, which makes it a lot less likely that it's related to orbital propellant transfer hardware.

This may end up being a component of Booster 18 or another test tank that has yet to roll out of Starfactory.

https://x.com/CSI_Starbase/status/1968043422314615090

Most likely an HLS-purposed tank with anti-boil-off technology.

It would have gone into MB-2 if that was the case.  MB-1 is the Booster and that's not going anywhere close to LEO.

[catdlr]

ChromeKiwi@AshleyKillip
Booster 18 long-awaited aft section looking very much the renders rolling out of the Star Factory this evening thanks to
@LabPadre for the pics and @SpaceX the amount of work involved in this section alone is insane with all of the hardlines moved to the exterior for engine spin start from the QD, Tank Autogenous pressure, Electrical conduit.

https://twitter.com/AshleyKillip/status/1968940414209245370

[catdlr]

Those plastic wrap pods along the side of the aft section are the BQD connections

https://twitter.com/AshleyKillip/status/1969149279655604565

[Robotbeat]

Wonder if there’s any chance at all of a launch of Flight 12 still this year. I’m leaning toward no, but I wonder if there are official/semi-official estimates of a NET date in 2026.

[StraumliBlight]

Wonder if there’s any chance at all of a launch of Flight 12 still this year. I’m leaning toward no, but I wonder if there are official/semi-official estimates of a NET date in 2026.

Ars Technica: SpaceX’s lesson from last Starship flight? “We need to seal the tiles. [Sep 9]

"Next year, we step up to another version of both ship and booster, called V3 (Version 3)," Gerstenmaier said in response to a question from Ars. "It also has a new Raptor engine underneath, with more performance than the previous ones. So we'll fly V3 (suborbital) first, and then if that's successful, then we'll probably go orbital after that with the next V3."

[catdlr]

Wonder if there’s any chance at all of a launch of Flight 12 still this year. I’m leaning toward no, but I wonder if there are official/semi-official estimates of a NET date in 2026.

With 2.5 months left in the year, and all the testing on that highly complex OLM-2 mount and pad.  They need to test with 18 on it to make sure all the lines and plumbing work.  No way a flight by the end of the year.

[Robotbeat]

Wonder if there’s any chance at all of a launch of Flight 12 still this year. I’m leaning toward no, but I wonder if there are official/semi-official estimates of a NET date in 2026.

Ars Technica: SpaceX’s lesson from last Starship flight? “We need to seal the tiles. [Sep 9]

"Next year, we step up to another version of both ship and booster, called V3 (Version 3)," Gerstenmaier said in response to a question from Ars. "It also has a new Raptor engine underneath, with more performance than the previous ones. So we'll fly V3 (suborbital) first, and then if that's successful, then we'll probably go orbital after that with the next V3."

Im aware of that quote. Also not gonna read too much into it.

I don’t expect flight 12 this year. I hope it occurs in January. I expect it to occur by the end of March or earlier.

[ChrisC]

Mod: massive quotes trimmed down.

[crandles57]

Wonder if there’s any chance at all of a launch of Flight 12 still this year. I’m leaning toward no, but I wonder if there are official/semi-official estimates of a NET date in 2026.

With 2.5 months left in the year, and all the testing on that highly complex OLM-2 mount and pad.  They need to test with 18 on it to make sure all the lines and plumbing work.  No way a flight by the end of the year.

While not anywhere near even semi official, we could possibly put some minimum time and best estimate times for several of the stages? I am thinking something like this

Work_____________________________________Min Est_______________Best Est

Ship timeline
Complete ship 39.X test tank testing ??___________???_________________???
Stack ship 39_______________________________2 weeks?_____________4 weeks?
Further work pre pressure cryo tests_____________1 week?_____________2 weeks?
Roll to Massey & back,  pressure cryo tests________4 days?______________1-2 weeks?
Further build add flaps engines__________________2 weeks?____________4 weeks?
Roll to Massey & back, static fire_________________3 days?_____________1 week?
Final ship preps______________________________2 weeks?____________3 weeks?
Roll to pad, pad ship connections testing__________1 week?_____________2 weeks?

Total_______________________________________9 weeks?+___________17-18 weeks?+


Booster 18 timeline

Finish B18.x test tank testing____________________1 week?_____________??
Finish stacking booster_________________________1 week?_____________2 weeks?
Further work pre pressure cryo tests______________1 week?_____________2 weeks?
Roll to Massey (& back),  pressure cryo tests________4 days?_____________1 week?
Further build add flaps engines___________________2 week?_____________4 weeks?
Roll to pad, Pad testing with booster_______________2 weeks?____________4 weeks?
Static fire____________________________________3 days?_____________1 week?
Final booster preps_____________________________2 weeks?____________3 weeks?
Roll to pad, stack ship and launch__________________1 week?____________2 weeks?

Total_________________________________________11 weeks?__________20+ weeks?


I feel like I am really on the low side for the minimum time estimates above so 11 weeks minimum time and more like 20+ weeks seems to make 2025 launch impossible and more like March 2026 or later? No doubt different people with different knowledge would put in different estimates. Is this miles off?

Edit to add:
Raptor Timeline

39 Raptors needed. While numbers in 30s have been seen many may have been tested to destruction and they may still be tweaking design so none may be flight ready yet.
At the optimistic end, they may shortly be finished tweaking and optimising design and may be able to quickly ramp up to a production rate of 3 per week so perhaps as little as 14 weeks?
Less optimistically, there may be another month or two of design tweaking and then there may be a slow ramp up in production rate and there could also further time to figure out what testing should be done on the final design version and getting that testing done.

So while Raptor 3 engine could be a constraint on when flight 12 happens, I am not sure we have much detail to constrain when flight 12 will be from this.

Masseys timeline
Pressure and cryo site locations are looking near complete - may need some testing with vehicles present.
Pressure and cryo tests on booster and ship to do.
Static fire location perhaps approaching completion?
Ship transport stand (crab) may need adapting to v3? or replaced?
Static fire will need testing - probably some testing without a ship present then testing with a ship present
Static fire

Several things to do, but I am not seeing these taking long enough to be a constraint on when flight 12 occurs other than as part of booster or ship timeline.

Pad Timeline

The pad and GSE is beginning to look more like approaching completion but there is doubtless lots still to do:

Ship quick disconnect hasn't been attached to tower yet, needs to be attached with power & supply lines to quick disconnect plate.
High pressure lines all the way to pad may not be completed yet?
Testing those supply lines and valves to and at pad and tower without booster or ship.
Test chopstick lift of booster and stacking on pad.
Testing connections to and supplies to booster. (propellants, Nitrogen, CO2?, electrical, ...)
Test chopstick lift of ship and stacking on booster
Testing connections to and supplies to ship. (propellants, Nitrogen, CO2?, electrical, ...)
Testing v3 booster and ship loading procedures.
Launch wet dress rehearsal.

Lots to do at pad but it seems to me like the pad could well be waiting for booster and ship to be ready for some of the work so the better time constraints come from the booster and ship timelines. However other people may feel more able to add more items and put time estimates on the Masseys, pad and raptor timelines than I feel able to do. Do feel free to suggest extra items or timescales to improve this timescale list of things to do.

[wannamoonbase]

Wonder if there’s any chance at all of a launch of Flight 12 still this year. I’m leaning toward no, but I wonder if there are official/semi-official estimates of a NET date in 2026.

With 2.5 months left in the year, and all the testing on that highly complex OLM-2 mount and pad.  They need to test with 18 on it to make sure all the lines and plumbing work.  No way a flight by the end of the year.

While not anywhere near even semi official, we could possibly put some minimum time and best estimate times for several of the stages? I am thinking something like this

Work_____________________________________Min Est_______________Best Est

Ship timeline
Complete ship 39.X test tank testing ??___________???_________________???

Stack ship 39_______________________________2 weeks?_____________4 weeks?

Further work pre pressure cryo tests_____________1 week?_____________2 weeks?

Roll to Massey & back,  pressure cryo tests________4 days?______________1-2 weeks?

Further build add flaps engines__________________2 weeks?____________4 weeks?

Roll to Massey & back, static fire_________________3 days?_____________1 week?

Final ship preps______________________________2 weeks?____________3 weeks?

Roll to pad, pad ship connections testing__________1 week?_____________2 weeks?

Total_______________________________________9 weeks?+___________17-18 weeks?+


Booster 18 timeline

Finish B18.x test tank testing____________________1 week?_____________??

Finish stacking booster_________________________1 week?_____________2 weeks?

Further work pre pressure cryo tests______________1 week?_____________2 weeks?

Roll to Massey (& back),  pressure cryo tests________4 days?_____________1 week?

Further build add flaps engines___________________2 week?_____________4 weeks?

Roll to pad, Pad testing with booster_______________2 weeks?____________4 weeks?

Static fire____________________________________3 days?_____________1 week?

Final booster preps_____________________________2 weeks?____________3 weeks?

Roll to pad, stack ship and launch__________________1 week?____________2 weeks?

Total_________________________________________11 weeks?__________20+ weeks?


I feel like I am really on the low side for the minimum time estimates above so 11 weeks minimum time and more like 20+ weeks seems to make 2025 launch impossible and more like March 2026 or later? No doubt different people with different knowledge would put in different estimates. Is this miles off?

All of those things need to be done.  New pad, new vehicles etc.

However, I think the critical path to flight 12 can go through Raptor 3 production.

McGregor has seen engines in the 30's, but how many of those are flight ready?

They have plenty to do toward a V3 flight and only 83 days left in the year, including the biggest holidays of the year.


Edit: I would love to see January, but also wouldn't be surprised if it's March.

[catdlr]

However, I think the critical path to flight 12 can go through Raptor 3 production.

McGregor has seen engines in the 30's, but how many of those are flight ready?



Edit: I would love to see January, but also wouldn't be surprised if it's March.

On the Raptor 3 status, you may want to read this post:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=53555.msg2722639#msg2722639

[catdlr]

Lewis Knaggs@lewisknaggs42
·
S39.1 has moved off it's work stand in MB2

Erik Fraser@efraser77
·
No sooner had S38 left Mega Bay 2 then SpaceX moved onto the next thing. The top of a possible S39.1 test tank is now visible in the bay.
📸 http://nsf.live/starbase
@NASASpaceflight

https://x.com/lewisknaggs42/status/1977116746310914099

https://x.com/efraser77/status/1977123988028768609

[catdlr]

Lewis Knaggs@lewisknaggs42
S39 has begun construction in MB2, would expect the nose cone and payload bay to roll out in the next day or two.

https://twitter.com/lewisknaggs42/status/1977406329359888852

[catdlr]

Drum roll, the nose cone has appeared, and it might be the docking adapter for the depot refueling.

S39 nose cone rolled out of Starfactory and into Mega Bay 2, sporting new docking hardware for on-orbit refueling, seen on the @LabPadre live cameras. Also, through the pez door, new orange covers for the COPV tanks, as well as the new lift/landing points.

https://twitter.com/AshleyKillip/status/1977674607252697168

As a reference, these two ports are similar to the docking ports featured on the SpaceX Space Refueling web pages — the orange-covered COPV tanks attached to the back wall, which were seen earlier through the pez door in the nose cone row.

Photo credit for the picture of the Pez door and docking adapter ports from LabPadre. (NSF Starbase Livestream did not show that, so I am unable to screen capture an image; NSF might have caught that appearance on another camera that could be posted later, in which case I'll update this post.)

[catdlr]

Interstellar Gateway - IGW
@interstellargw
The first next-generation V3 SpaceX Starship nosecone rolling out, sporting design changes such as a smoothed tile line for the entire heatshield, repositioned Starlink antennas, and a new catch point design.

Interstellar Gateway - IGW@interstellargw
·
The end of V2 meets the beginning of V3…

S39's nosecone, the first V3 Starship, rolled out of Starfactory this morning.

https://twitter.com/interstellargw/status/1977684407201984904

https://twitter.com/interstellargw/status/1977676052400066867

mod edit: added downloaded images for easier access to full-res photos

[catdlr]

Lewis Knaggs@lewisknaggs42
·

Changes we have seen so far:
1. Starlink terminals have moved positions
2. Catch pin design has changes
3. Some of the internal welds have changes
4. Docking ports for orbital refilling
5. Heat shield patter has changes with a tapered edge everywhere
6. No lift points just catch pin and stabilizer points

https://twitter.com/lewisknaggs42/status/1977707896222761168

[catdlr]

Lewis Knaggs@lewisknaggs42
F2:4 Rolled out for B18, just one more section after this.

https://twitter.com/lewisknaggs42/status/1978122670223847559

[catdlr]

Lewis Knaggs@lewisknaggs42
Yep just another 4 ring barrel. Credit @TrackingTheSB

https://x.com/lewisknaggs42/status/1978134711256965212

[ChrisC]

Interstellar Gateway - IGW
@interstellargw
The first next-generation V3 SpaceX Starship nosecone rolling out, sporting design changes such as a smoothed tile line for the entire heatshield, repositioned Starlink antennas, and a new catch point design.

The heatshield shows a rectangular bulge that is presumably one of the Starlink antennas, and presumably there's another one on the other side.  Then there's another pair on the leeward side, also covered in tiles.  So, first, they are using some kind of RF-transparent materials for those tiles.  Second, they apparently really want to limit the engineering / unique P/N count of these designs and just stick with one, hence the tile-covered Starlink antenna on the leeward side, when it probably doesn't need tiles back there. I noted the exact same tile pattern on both.

[catdlr]

Interstellar Gateway - IGW
@interstellargw
The first next-generation V3 SpaceX Starship nosecone rolling out, sporting design changes such as a smoothed tile line for the entire heatshield, repositioned Starlink antennas, and a new catch point design.

The heatshield shows a rectangular bulge that is presumably one of the Starlink antennas, and presumably there's another one on the other side.  Then there's another pair on the leeward side, also covered in tiles.  So, first, they are using some kind of RF-transparent materials for those tiles.  Second, they apparently really want to limit the engineering / unique P/N count of these designs and just stick with one, hence the tile-covered Starlink antenna on the leeward side, when it probably doesn't need tiles back there. I noted the exact same tile pattern on both.

Another item to note in those pictures is the brand-new trim tiles that line the interface between the tile surface and the ship's skin surface (think of bathroom edging tiles) and decrease the likelihood of tile flaking, as demonstrated in the recent Scott Manley video of tiles ripping off during ascent.

[SpaceLizard]

There are also 2 interesting hexagonal-pyramid shaped tiles visible between the top of the nose vent thingy and the top of the forward flaps.

[catdlr]

There are also 2 interesting hexagonal-pyramid shaped tiles visible between the top of the nose vent thingy and the top of the forward flaps.

It would help me a lot if you could at least provide the link to the post so I can find what you are referring to.

Is it these two items?

Asymmetrical positioned.  I would like to see the other side, if there are two positions there as well.  Then I would like to see if a group of two pairs is positioned near the aft end.  If they are, then I'll give you my opinion.

[SpaceLizard]

There are also 2 interesting hexagonal-pyramid shaped tiles visible between the top of the nose vent thingy and the top of the forward flaps.

It would help me a lot if you could at least provide the link to the post so I can find what you are referring to.

Is it these two items?

Asymmetrical positioned.  I would like to see the other side, if there are two positions there as well.  Then I would like to see if a group of two pairs is positioned near the aft end.  If they are, then I'll give you my opinion.

Yes! Those are the ones.

[meekGee]

There are also 2 interesting hexagonal-pyramid shaped tiles visible between the top of the nose vent thingy and the top of the forward flaps.

Odd indeed.
Remember the reason for hex tiles was to prevent gaps from being collinear, to disrupt plasma flow?
With something like this, even the single gaps are kinda protected.

Of installed throughout, they'll make such a hypothetical ship look very... distinct.

Many questions:
What effect will it have on the ship's aerodynamics? Will it be like a golf ball? How about forces acting on the tiles?

Or are these just covers of some sort.

[SpaceLizard]

There are also 2 interesting hexagonal-pyramid shaped tiles visible between the top of the nose vent thingy and the top of the forward flaps.

Odd indeed.
Remember the reason for hex tiles was to prevent gaps from being collinear, to disrupt plasma flow?
With something like this, even the single gaps are kinda protected.

Of installed throughout, they'll make such a hypothetical ship look very... distinct.

Many questions:
What effect will it have on the ship's aerodynamics? Will it be like a golf ball? How about forces acting on the tiles?

Or are these just covers of some sort.

My guess would be covers, but for what?...

[catdlr]

There are also 2 interesting hexagonal-pyramid shaped tiles visible between the top of the nose vent thingy and the top of the forward flaps.

Odd indeed.
Remember the reason for hex tiles was to prevent gaps from being collinear, to disrupt plasma flow?
With something like this, even the single gaps are kinda protected.

Of installed throughout, they'll make such a hypothetical ship look very... distinct.

Many questions:
What effect will it have on the ship's aerodynamics? Will it be like a golf ball? How about forces acting on the tiles?

Or are these just covers of some sort.

My guess would be covers, but for what?...

I was going to wait for additional shots of the other side and then the aft section to be delivered in a few weeks to give an opinion, but I'll put my two 2-cents now:   LIDAR for fuel tank rendezvous.

[DanClemmensen]

There are also 2 interesting hexagonal-pyramid shaped tiles visible between the top of the nose vent thingy and the top of the forward flaps.

Odd indeed.
Remember the reason for hex tiles was to prevent gaps from being collinear, to disrupt plasma flow?
With something like this, even the single gaps are kinda protected.

Of installed throughout, they'll make such a hypothetical ship look very... distinct.

Many questions:
What effect will it have on the ship's aerodynamics? Will it be like a golf ball? How about forces acting on the tiles?

Or are these just covers of some sort.

My guess would be covers, but for what?...

I was going to wait for additional shots of the other side and then the aft section to be delivered in a few weeks to give an opinion, but I'll put my two 2-cents now:   LIDAR for fuel take rendezvous.

LIDAR would require them to be transparent in the laser frequency being used. Maybe RADAR instead?

[catdlr]

There are also 2 interesting hexagonal-pyramid shaped tiles visible between the top of the nose vent thingy and the top of the forward flaps.

Odd indeed.
Remember the reason for hex tiles was to prevent gaps from being collinear, to disrupt plasma flow?
With something like this, even the single gaps are kinda protected.

Of installed throughout, they'll make such a hypothetical ship look very... distinct.

Many questions:
What effect will it have on the ship's aerodynamics? Will it be like a golf ball? How about forces acting on the tiles?

Or are these just covers of some sort.

My guess would be covers, but for what?...

I was going to wait for additional shots of the other side and then the aft section to be delivered in a few weeks to give an opinion, but I'll put my two 2-cents now:   LIDAR for fuel take rendezvous.

LIDAR would require them to be transparent in the laser frequency being used. Maybe RADAR instead?

I go either way. I know Elon hates Lidar, so radar emitter and receiver (pairs) would make sense.  When I get a good look at the other side and when the after section comes rolling out of the factory with the same two sets of "pyramid tiles", I'll let everyone see them.

[meekGee]

There are also 2 interesting hexagonal-pyramid shaped tiles visible between the top of the nose vent thingy and the top of the forward flaps.

Odd indeed.
Remember the reason for hex tiles was to prevent gaps from being collinear, to disrupt plasma flow?
With something like this, even the single gaps are kinda protected.

Of installed throughout, they'll make such a hypothetical ship look very... distinct.

Many questions:
What effect will it have on the ship's aerodynamics? Will it be like a golf ball? How about forces acting on the tiles?

Or are these just covers of some sort.

My guess would be covers, but for what?...

I was going to wait for additional shots of the other side and then the aft section to be delivered in a few weeks to give an opinion, but I'll put my two 2-cents now:   LIDAR for fuel take rendezvous.

LIDAR would require them to be transparent in the laser frequency being used. Maybe RADAR instead?

I go either way, I know Elon hates Lidar, so radar emitter and receiver (pairs) would make sense.

He hates it as a solution for mass produced autonomous cars, I don't think he's got it in for the technology.

But maybe you're right and hence the pairing.

[catdlr]

Starbase Surfer
@cnunezimages
Starship 39. Flight 12 Hardware - October 12, 2025

https://twitter.com/cnunezimages/status/1978643156603142374

[DanClemmensen]

I go either way, I know Elon hates Lidar, so radar emitter and receiver (pairs) would make sense.

He hates it as a solution for mass produced autonomous cars, I don't think he's got it in for the technology.

But maybe you're right and hence the pairing.

Elon "hates" any extra active sensor system. "The best part is no part". He believes that cameras and image processing suffice for everything. As an extreme example, a software update deliberately disabled the sonar parking sensors on my 2020 Model Y in favor of just using the cameras. That car got rear-ended and totaled (not due to sensors) and the replacement 2023 Model Y does not have the sonar sensors at all. If we want to use Teslas as a guide, we should expect RPOD to use cameras only. From a sensor perspective, RPOD is a whole lot simpler than FSD.

[rsdavis9]

I go either way, I know Elon hates Lidar, so radar emitter and receiver (pairs) would make sense.

He hates it as a solution for mass produced autonomous cars, I don't think he's got it in for the technology.

But maybe you're right and hence the pairing.

Elon "hates" any extra active sensor system. "The best part is no part". He believes that cameras and image processing suffice for everything. As an extreme example, a software update deliberately disabled the sonar parking sensors on my 2020 Model Y in favor of just using the cameras. That car got rear-ended and totaled (not due to sensors) and the replacement 2023 Model Y does not have the sonar sensors at all. If we want to use Teslas as a guide, we should expect RPOD to use cameras only. From a sensor perspective, RPOD is a whole lot simpler than FSD.

They use lidar on dragon. I think they had trouble with specular reflection on the first docking with lidar.

[meekGee]

I go either way, I know Elon hates Lidar, so radar emitter and receiver (pairs) would make sense.

He hates it as a solution for mass produced autonomous cars, I don't think he's got it in for the technology.

But maybe you're right and hence the pairing.

Elon "hates" any extra active sensor system. "The best part is no part". He believes that cameras and image processing suffice for everything. As an extreme example, a software update deliberately disabled the sonar parking sensors on my 2020 Model Y in favor of just using the cameras. That car got rear-ended and totaled (not due to sensors) and the replacement 2023 Model Y does not have the sonar sensors at all. If we want to use Teslas as a guide, we should expect RPOD to use cameras only. From a sensor perspective, RPOD is a whole lot simpler than FSD.

I agree cameras are better than Lidar but only if they can do he job.

There are also solid state range-sensing optical sensors, but I also agree radar is probably better than all, and will go through an opaque tile.

As for Teslas, don't get me started...  

[DanClemmensen]

I go either way, I know Elon hates Lidar, so radar emitter and receiver (pairs) would make sense.

He hates it as a solution for mass produced autonomous cars, I don't think he's got it in for the technology.

But maybe you're right and hence the pairing.

Elon "hates" any extra active sensor system. "The best part is no part". He believes that cameras and image processing suffice for everything. As an extreme example, a software update deliberately disabled the sonar parking sensors on my 2020 Model Y in favor of just using the cameras. That car got rear-ended and totaled (not due to sensors) and the replacement 2023 Model Y does not have the sonar sensors at all. If we want to use Teslas as a guide, we should expect RPOD to use cameras only. From a sensor perspective, RPOD is a whole lot simpler than FSD.

I agree cameras are better than Lidar but only if they can do he job.

There are also solid state range-sensing optical sensors, but I also agree radar is probably better than all, and will go through an opaque tile.

As for Teslas, don't get me started...

Hey, I did not say I agreed with Elon on this. I just explained his position. I'm fairly sure cameras would work well for RPOD, but soem sort of active ranging scheme would be helpful, especially beyond about 1000 meters. I'm not sure why this needs those two funny pyramids on the windward side.

[meekGee]

I go either way, I know Elon hates Lidar, so radar emitter and receiver (pairs) would make sense.

He hates it as a solution for mass produced autonomous cars, I don't think he's got it in for the technology.

But maybe you're right and hence the pairing.

Elon "hates" any extra active sensor system. "The best part is no part". He believes that cameras and image processing suffice for everything. As an extreme example, a software update deliberately disabled the sonar parking sensors on my 2020 Model Y in favor of just using the cameras. That car got rear-ended and totaled (not due to sensors) and the replacement 2023 Model Y does not have the sonar sensors at all. If we want to use Teslas as a guide, we should expect RPOD to use cameras only. From a sensor perspective, RPOD is a whole lot simpler than FSD.

I agree cameras are better than Lidar but only if they can do he job.

There are also solid state range-sensing optical sensors, but I also agree radar is probably better than all, and will go through an opaque tile.

As for Teslas, don't get me started...

Hey, I did not say I agreed with Elon on this. I just explained his position. I'm fairly sure cameras would work well for RPOD, but soem sort of active ranging scheme would be helpful, especially beyond about 1000 meters. I'm not sure why this needs those two funny pyramids on the windward side.

I'm holding hope that these are tests for an all-bumpy cover scheme, just because it will look cool...

[Metalskin]

I'm holding hope that these are tests for an all-bumpy cover scheme, just because it will look cool...

Maybe they'll do a golf ball style dimpled starship? (half joking, but who knows).

[lightleviathan]

I go either way, I know Elon hates Lidar, so radar emitter and receiver (pairs) would make sense.

He hates it as a solution for mass produced autonomous cars, I don't think he's got it in for the technology.

But maybe you're right and hence the pairing.

Elon "hates" any extra active sensor system. "The best part is no part". He believes that cameras and image processing suffice for everything. As an extreme example, a software update deliberately disabled the sonar parking sensors on my 2020 Model Y in favor of just using the cameras. That car got rear-ended and totaled (not due to sensors) and the replacement 2023 Model Y does not have the sonar sensors at all. If we want to use Teslas as a guide, we should expect RPOD to use cameras only. From a sensor perspective, RPOD is a whole lot simpler than FSD.

I agree cameras are better than Lidar but only if they can do he job.

There are also solid state range-sensing optical sensors, but I also agree radar is probably better than all, and will go through an opaque tile.

As for Teslas, don't get me started...

Hey, I did not say I agreed with Elon on this. I just explained his position. I'm fairly sure cameras would work well for RPOD, but soem sort of active ranging scheme would be helpful, especially beyond about 1000 meters. I'm not sure why this needs those two funny pyramids on the windward side.

He's also said that lidar makes sense for rockets (after all, it is used for Dragon docking), but not for cars. So this very well could be for future lidar modules.

[meekGee]

I'm holding hope that these are tests for an all-bumpy cover scheme, just because it will look cool...

Maybe they'll do a golf ball style dimpled starship? (half joking, but who knows).

I thought that would be the secondary effect.

The main effect would be shielding the inter-tile gaps from direct flow, when and where the flow runs parallel to the surface.

[catdlr]

NSF - NASASpaceflight.com
@NASASpaceflight
·
Ship 39 is now inside Mega Bay 2, preparing for Flight 12, the debut of the next-generation Starship that will launch from Pad 2 at Starbase.

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1980016199837610052

[catdlr]

Jack Beyer
@thejackbeyer
Ship 39’s nosecone was lifted inside mega bay 2 this evening. With the rise of the gigabay, this might be the last time we see this sort of operation. Final views of the first version 3 Starship. End of the beginning.
@NASASpaceflight

https://x.com/thejackbeyer/status/1980433760069005804

[catdlr]

StarbaseTracking
@TrackingTheSB
·

Ship 39's Forward Dome barrel has rolled out of Starfactory!

https://twitter.com/TrackingTheSB/status/1980443846246023258

[meekGee]

I read this book as a kid, about the battle of Britain.

The last line, IIRC (50 years, almost...), was:
"For us, it was the end of the beginning. For the Germans, it was the beginning of the end".

(Riffing on Churchill's line)

I need to find that book again...

Anyway, that's a pretty stark reference.

[catdlr]

StarbaseTracking
@TrackingTheSB
·

Following the double lift lines being connected, Ship 39's N:3 (Nosecone and Payload bay) with the FX:4 (Forward Dome) connected to the bottom was lifted to the turn table where they will be welded together.

https://twitter.com/TrackingTheSB/status/1980454529033265592

[catdlr]

Here is the current status with the follwing initial set of V3 ships

Pictures attached in this order
S39
S40
S41
S42 and S43 in one photo

[MickQ]

Things are moving apace now 👍

[catdlr]

Time-lapse Video Post

MattZ@wvmattz
·

SpaceX kept the Mega Bay 2 door open tonight, which allowed us to see Ship 39 being lifted and rotated; the nosecone/payload bay and forward section were later connected as well!  Neat!

https://twitter.com/wvmattz/status/1980466129907900923

[Kazioo]

I know Elon hates Lidar

No, he not only never claimed to hate Lidar, he even bragged about being directly involved in development of the Dragon's Lidar.

You are probably referring to his dislike for using it for self-driving cars, which rather makes sense when you know the details - He wasn't the first to criticize that use case (like bad weather unreliability or the whole object detection and situational context understanding ML revolution of the last ~5 years working only with cameras, while Lidar is still relying for the most part on decades old basic collision avoidance algos).

In other words: I don't think there is any kind of prejudice against lidar at Spacex if it's the right tool for the job.

it might be the docking adapter for the depot refueling.

Will a Starlink deploying Starship variant ever need orbital refilling? Are they just combining hardware to do various tests with the same Starship prototype?

[catdlr]

I know Elon hates Lidar

You are probably referring to his dislike for using it for self-driving cars

Yes, Kazioo, and I agree, but it appears that everyone on this thread is focusing on my statement rather than the issue. Therefore, I have revisited and removed it to keep this thread focused. I am not prejudiced against him, as everyone seems to be implying. I think Kazoo fully understood my statement.

[catdlr]

it might be the docking adapter for the depot refueling.

Will a Starlink deploying Starship variant ever need orbital refilling? Are they just combining hardware to do various tests with the same Starship prototype?

The same question pops into my mind when I saw that B38 rollout. Yes, Kazioo, I agree, prototype of both. Time saving, one less flight. The final product(s) wouldn't have both.

Remember all the revisions of the payload door before they found one that worked. Now adding this to the mix wouldn't be what one would expect on a Fuel Depot test, but SpaceX is probably trying to validate some features of this in the next flight that doesn't interfere with the payload test.

[DanClemmensen]

Will a Starlink deploying Starship variant ever need orbital refilling? Are they just combining hardware to do various tests with the same Starship prototype?

This would be ideal for deploying a "marslink" constellation of satellites around Mars for comms and PNT. A case can be made that this should be put in place before the first landing. Roughly 24 big satellites in a medium mars orbit for comms and PNT, plus two or three for the Earth-to-Mars link. One mars-Pez should be able to handle 30 double-wides.

[InterestedEngineer]

it might be the docking adapter for the depot refueling.

Will a Starlink deploying Starship variant ever need orbital refilling? Are they just combining hardware to do various tests with the same Starship prototype?

The same question pops into my mind when I saw that B38 rollout. Yes, Kazioo, I agree, prototype of both. Time saving, one less flight. The final product(s) wouldn't have both.

Remember all the revisions of the payload door before they found one that worked. Now adding this to the mix wouldn't be what one would expect on a Fuel Depot test, but SpaceX is probably trying to validate some features of this in the next flight that doesn't interfere with the payload test.

Mass production encourages duplication of function over customization for each application.

Many urban Americans have a pickup and use the bed for its original intent maybe a few times a month.

The extended cab is used daily.

It's still cheaper and far more convenient than renting a truck that is needed for the few times a month. Last time I tried to rent a truck at Home Depot to deliver some long goods for a project their computer system broke and they couldn't rent anything.  I really need to buy a pickup.

Oscilloscope probes are standardized to 600V even though most of them never measure anything beyond 240V.

Smartphones have features I never use.  My original use, of all things, was a timer for my eggs, which the cell companies, when they used to control the firmware for phones, deleted from their lineups.

An Instant Pot can do everything from pressure cook to low&slow, because it's easier to have one item crowding our already crowded countertops, and a computer controlled pressure cookie can do a ton of other things with little additional cost.

It's hard to buy a printer that doesn't have a scanner, even though I rarely ever use the scanner.

We buy office suites, not spreadsheet tools or word processing tools.

The list is infinite

The whole idea of `the thing most only do this custom thing` comes from a notion of scarcity, in this case of scarcity of kg to orbit.   That's "old space" mentality, and it'll take least a decade of Starship flying payloads for it to go away.

Meanwhile I'm going to enjoy watching starships roll off the line with all the features needed to do the basic missions.

[catdlr]

it might be the docking adapter for the depot refueling.

Will a Starlink deploying Starship variant ever need orbital refilling? Are they just combining hardware to do various tests with the same Starship prototype?

Mass production encourages duplication of function over customization for each application.

Yes, and I agree with that assertion, but we will have an HLS version, a tanker, and a depot that might feature this Starlink door, along with the standard Starlink and perhaps some whale mouth version for lifting other commercial payloads that can't use the Starlink door, a space telescope, and oh, oh, the Earth and Mars version with all the windows and passengers. 

The picture attached illustrates a selection of all the variations available on their website. I consider the nosecone to have numerous variations, but similar construction to everything below it. Therefore, my post was specifically about the variation to the nosecone, not the rest of the vehicle, making it easy to vary just one part of the entire rocket.

[meekGee]

it might be the docking adapter for the depot refueling.

Will a Starlink deploying Starship variant ever need orbital refilling? Are they just combining hardware to do various tests with the same Starship prototype?

I'll repeat my earlier assertion:

Anything that's not a part of 2026 Mars is a "nice to have".

Of course they'll fly with a Starlink dispenser, and maybe even deploy some, but what they won't do is waste a flight that's not part of the Mars drive.

It's going to be refueling first, heat shield and recovery a close second, reuse third.

- Refuling is necessary.
- Heat shield is needed for Mars, and recovery helps avoid mishap issues on Earth.
- Reuse, if (big if) can be done quickly enough, can increase launch cadence and reduce required manufacturing, still for 2026.

Starlinks and the door and dispenser might be part of the Mars lander plan, and it never hurts to have it on board, so as long as it's a free ride why not.

Once 2026 goes by, it'll be Starlink and HLS.

[rsdavis9]

it might be the docking adapter for the depot refueling.

Will a Starlink deploying Starship variant ever need orbital refilling? Are they just combining hardware to do various tests with the same Starship prototype?

I'll repeat my earlier assertion:

Anything that's not a part of 2026 Mars is a "nice to have".

Of course they'll fly with a Starlink dispenser, and maybe even deploy some, but what they won't do is waste a flight that's not part of the Mars drive.

It's going to be refueling first, heat shield and recovery a close second, reuse third.

- Refuling is necessary.
- Heat shield is needed for Mars, and recovery helps avoid mishap issues on Earth.
- Reuse, if (big if) can be done quickly enough, can increase launch cadence and reduce required manufacturing, still for 2026.

Starlinks and the door and dispenser might be part of the Mars lander plan, and it never hurts to have it on board, so as long as it's a free ride why not.

Once 2026 goes by, it'll be Starlink and HLS.

It would be interesting to know if the reuse of f9 booster found any problems that increased the reliability of the rocket? In other words did they discover problems because they got the rocket back intact?

[ChrisC]

Y'all are spinning waaaay off topic here.  Pull it back to Flight 12 preps please?

I do like the concept of a single design for the V3 ship, initially, to cover both the Starlink delivery use case and the prop transfer test use case.  Of course they can fork it later, but for now, keep your options open and test those new outer mold lines.

In case you all didn't notice, recent imagery of S39 has shown that those hexagonal bumps appeared on the left side of the ship as well as the right side, as viewed from outside (I believe we initially only saw right side).  Still waiting for aft views.  These are the bumps that have been speculated to contain lidar or radar transmitters / receivers.

[catdlr]

Y'all are spinning waaaay off topic here.  Pull it back to Flight 12 preps please?

I do like the concept of a single design for the V3 ship, initially, to cover both the Starlink delivery use case and the prop transfer test use case.  Of course they can fork it later, but for now, keep your options open and test those new outer mold lines.

In case you all didn't notice, recent imagery of S39 has shown that those hexagonal bumps appeared on the left side of the ship as well as the right side, as viewed from outside (I believe we initially only saw right side).  Still waiting for aft views.  These are the bumps that have been speculated to contain lidar or radar transmitters / receivers.

Picture and locations attached.   Yes, I await an aft or section above the aft to see the other two pairs.

[SpaceLizard]

Y'all are spinning waaaay off topic here.  Pull it back to Flight 12 preps please?

I do like the concept of a single design for the V3 ship, initially, to cover both the Starlink delivery use case and the prop transfer test use case.  Of course they can fork it later, but for now, keep your options open and test those new outer mold lines.

In case you all didn't notice, recent imagery of S39 has shown that those hexagonal bumps appeared on the left side of the ship as well as the right side, as viewed from outside (I believe we initially only saw right side).  Still waiting for aft views.  These are the bumps that have been speculated to contain lidar or radar transmitters / receivers.

Picture and locations attached.   Yes, I await an aft or section above the aft to see the other two pairs.

I'm wondering if we can spy those spots on the future nosecones by the window before tiles go on, what might we see...

[StraumliBlight]

In case you all didn't notice, recent imagery of S39 has shown that those hexagonal bumps appeared on the left side of the ship as well as the right side, as viewed from outside (I believe we initially only saw right side).  Still waiting for aft views.  These are the bumps that have been speculated to contain lidar or radar transmitters / receivers.

Why would a lidar/radar sensor need to be embedded in the heat shield?

Starships will approach each other face on, when attempting to dock.

Maybe the 'bumpy' tiles are to shape the hypersonic airflow away from the flap hinges.

[catdlr]

In case you all didn't notice, recent imagery of S39 has shown that those hexagonal bumps appeared on the left side of the ship as well as the right side, as viewed from outside (I believe we initially only saw right side).  Still waiting for aft views.  These are the bumps that have been speculated to contain lidar or radar transmitters / receivers.

Why would a lidar/radar sensor need to be embedded in the heat shield?

Starships will approach each other face on, when attempting to dock.

Maybe the 'bumpy' tiles are to shape the hypersonic airflow away from the flap hinges.

Y'all are spinning waaaay off topic here.  Pull it back to Flight 12 preps please?

I do like the concept of a single design for the V3 ship, initially, to cover both the Starlink delivery use case and the prop transfer test use case.  Of course they can fork it later, but for now, keep your options open and test those new outer mold lines.

In case you all didn't notice, recent imagery of S39 has shown that those hexagonal bumps appeared on the left side of the ship as well as the right side, as viewed from outside (I believe we initially only saw right side).  Still waiting for aft views.  These are the bumps that have been speculated to contain lidar or radar transmitters / receivers.

Picture and locations attached.   Yes, I await an aft or section above the aft to see the other two pairs.

I'm wondering if we can spy those spots on the future nosecones by the window before tiles go on, what might we see...

Or just holes for them initially? I'll keep a lookout for them.  Thanks.

(Updated:  This is S43, and that black dot might be it.)

[r8ix]

It's the fiery side of the ship, so wouldn't they also need to be covered for the same reason the Starlinks are covered?  If on the shiny side, no I don't thing protection is neceaary.

Looks to me like they're on the shiny side (leeward), just close enough to the nose that they have tile protection. Look at the way the flaps are hinged, and the shiny straight down from the bumps.

[catdlr]

It's the fiery side of the ship, so wouldn't they also need to be covered for the same reason the Starlinks are covered?  If on the shiny side, no I don't thing protection is neceaary.

Looks to me like they're on the shiny side (leeward), just close enough to the nose that they have tile protection. Look at the way the flaps are hinged, and the shiny straight down from the bumps.

Yeah, forgot to delete that comment when I was composing that long post.

[catdlr]

Lewis Knaggs
@lewisknaggs42
·
B18 F3:4 rolled out of Starfactory. This is t he last section for B18. It first needs to be stacked under the forward portion on the right turn table and then that will be stacked on the aft of B18 which will complete the first V3 booster stacking.

https://twitter.com/lewisknaggs42/status/1981063574870249686

[DanClemmensen]

Will a Starlink deploying Starship variant ever need orbital refilling? Are they just combining hardware to do various tests with the same Starship prototype?

This would be ideal for deploying a "marslink" constellation of satellites around Mars for comms and PNT. A case can be made that this should be put in place before the first landing. Roughly 24 big satellites in a medium mars orbit for comms and PNT, plus two or three for the Earth-to-Mars link. One mars-Pez should be able to handle 30 double-wides.

And of course SpaceX already thought of this. There is a short segment of Elon's Mars presentation that shows a deployment of marslinks from a Pez in Mars orbit:
    https://www.spacex.com/humanspaceflight/mars
(42-minute presentation. The segment starts at minute 38.)

[catdlr]

There are also 2 interesting hexagonal-pyramid shaped tiles visible between the top of the nose vent thingy and the top of the forward flaps.

It would help me a lot if you could at least provide the link to the post so I can find what you are referring to.

Is it these two items?

Asymmetrical positioned.  I would like to see the other side, if there are two positions there as well.  Then I would like to see if a group of two pairs is positioned near the aft end.  If they are, then I'll give you my opinion.

Ryan Caton
@dpoddolphinpro
·
"For rendezvous, Starships will be equipped with DragonEye navigation sensors" - Fun Fact:
@SpaceX tested DragonEye on 2 Space Shuttle missions: STS-127 & STS-133.

This means that, technically, hardware derived from Shuttle-flown hardware will fly on Starship. So cool.

https://twitter.com/dpoddolphinpro/status/1983932272597254426

[AndrewM]

Starship Block 3 and HLS: The path to get back to the Moon [Nov. 1]

The first full flight test of Block 3 is scheduled to involve Booster 18 and Ship 39 and is expected to launch sometime in Quarter 1 of 2026. Currently, neither vehicle is complete in construction, and, based on the best timelines using past boosters and ships as reference points, neither will likely begin cryogenic proof testing until December.

4 Raptor 3s leaving McGregor potentially for Booster 18.

https://twitter.com/SpaceRhin0/status/1985869467818344704 [Nov. 4]

New High Score!

Earlier today we saw not one, not two, not three but four Raptor 3's roll past at McGregor! This included R3.54 which is a new high score for seen R3's!
This seems to indicate a big shift in the speed at which R3 is being tested!

📷: https://nsf.live/mcgregor

Next section (Aft 2) of Ship 39 moved on November 1st in preparation for stacking from the latest "daily".

An additional section (A3:4) rolled on November 4th.
https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1985919092172185698

Starship Flight 12: Ship 39 is making progress, with barrel section A3:4 rolling to MB2.

http://nsf.live/starbase

[StraumliBlight]

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1986086826600186264

SpaceX's Kiko Dontchev says at the Economist Space Summit this morning that the company's goal for 2025 is 165–170 Falcon 9 launches (currently at 140).

He adds the first V3 Starship launch could take place as soon as January; a booster will be rolling out to the pad for tests in "days to weeks".

[AndrewM]

Status of S39 as of the latest daily ("One last shower of flames from the old launch mount" | SpaceX Starbase) published November 5th.

[AndrewM]

More engines leaving McGregor potentially for Flight 12 and S39 in MB2.

https://twitter.com/SpaceRhin0/status/1986498135254839705?s=20 [Nov. 6]

1/2 for today so far, 4 more engines leaving the McGregor test area! This pace is starting to be impressive!
Interestingly R30 seemed to make its way back over to the test stands since yesterday...

📷: https://nsf.live/mcgregor

https://twitter.com/SpaceRhin0/status/1988014090422546702?s=20 [Nov. 10]

4 more out of McGregor!

They've been busy, R3.63, R3.57, R3.58 and R3.47 leaving the McGregor test area!

📷: https://nsf.live/mcgregor

[geza]

What is that large white rectangle in the middle of the quite homogenous heat shield?

[CrazyHorse80]

I suppose it's only reflection from the megabay's lamps.

[SDSmith]

What is that large white rectangle in the middle of the quite homogenous heat shield?

The tiles are missing in that area and you are seeing the insulation layer.

[crandles57]

So after just over a month, how is this post holding up?

While not anywhere near even semi official, we could possibly put some minimum time and best estimate times for several of the stages? I am thinking something like this

Work_____________________________________Min Est_______________Best Est

Ship timeline
Complete ship 39.X test tank testing ??___________???_________________???
Stack ship 39_______________________________2 weeks?_____________4 weeks?
Further work pre pressure cryo tests_____________1 week?_____________2 weeks?
Roll to Massey & back,  pressure cryo tests________4 days?______________1-2 weeks?
Further build add flaps engines__________________2 weeks?____________4 weeks?
Roll to Massey & back, static fire_________________3 days?_____________1 week?
Final ship preps______________________________2 weeks?____________3 weeks?
Roll to pad, pad ship connections testing__________1 week?_____________2 weeks?

Total_______________________________________9 weeks?+___________17-18 weeks?+


Booster 18 timeline

Finish B18.x test tank testing____________________1 week?_____________??
Finish stacking booster_________________________1 week?_____________2 weeks?
Further work pre pressure cryo tests______________1 week?_____________2 weeks?
Roll to Massey (& back),  pressure cryo tests________4 days?_____________1 week?
Further build add flaps engines___________________2 week?_____________4 weeks?
Roll to pad, Pad testing with booster_______________2 weeks?____________4 weeks?
Static fire____________________________________3 days?_____________1 week?
Final booster preps_____________________________2 weeks?____________3 weeks?
Roll to pad, stack ship and launch__________________1 week?____________2 weeks?

Total_________________________________________11 weeks?__________20+ weeks?


I feel like I am really on the low side for the minimum time estimates above so 11 weeks minimum time and more like 20+ weeks seems to make 2025 launch impossible and more like March 2026 or later? No doubt different people with different knowledge would put in different estimates. Is this miles off?

Edit to add:
Raptor Timeline

39 Raptors needed. While numbers in 30s have been seen many may have been tested to destruction and they may still be tweaking design so none may be flight ready yet.
At the optimistic end, they may shortly be finished tweaking and optimising design and may be able to quickly ramp up to a production rate of 3 per week so perhaps as little as 14 weeks?
Less optimistically, there may be another month or two of design tweaking and then there may be a slow ramp up in production rate and there could also further time to figure out what testing should be done on the final design version and getting that testing done.

So while Raptor 3 engine could be a constraint on when flight 12 happens, I am not sure we have much detail to constrain when flight 12 will be from this.

Masseys timeline
Pressure and cryo site locations are looking near complete - may need some testing with vehicles present.
Pressure and cryo tests on booster and ship to do.
Static fire location perhaps approaching completion?
Ship transport stand (crab) may need adapting to v3? or replaced?
Static fire will need testing - probably some testing without a ship present then testing with a ship present
Static fire

Several things to do, but I am not seeing these taking long enough to be a constraint on when flight 12 occurs other than as part of booster or ship timeline.

Pad Timeline

The pad and GSE is beginning to look more like approaching completion but there is doubtless lots still to do:

Ship quick disconnect hasn't been attached to tower yet, needs to be attached with power & supply lines to quick disconnect plate.
High pressure lines all the way to pad may not be completed yet?
Testing those supply lines and valves to and at pad and tower without booster or ship.
Test chopstick lift of booster and stacking on pad.
Testing connections to and supplies to booster. (propellants, Nitrogen, CO2?, electrical, ...)
Test chopstick lift of ship and stacking on booster
Testing connections to and supplies to ship. (propellants, Nitrogen, CO2?, electrical, ...)
Testing v3 booster and ship loading procedures.
Launch wet dress rehearsal.

Lots to do at pad but it seems to me like the pad could well be waiting for booster and ship to be ready for some of the work so the better time constraints come from the booster and ship timelines. However other people may feel more able to add more items and put time estimates on the Masseys, pad and raptor timelines than I feel able to do. Do feel free to suggest extra items or timescales to improve this timescale list of things to do.

Seems like ship 39.x test tanks will be done in parallel with ship 39 build

Stacking of ship 39 and B18 is proceeding but looking to be a little longer than the best est time

Raptors seem to be reaching higher numbers like 56 and 4 at a time arrivals and departures seems like the rate is better than I expected so I have much less concern about there being sufficient flight ready engines being available for fitting prior to static fire tests.

Static fire at Masseys not yet ready but continues to look like it is getting nearer completion, still expect it to be ready in time.

Pad looks much nearer to being ready, though I don't know much about state of completion of more detailed items listed.

Not much data on how my best est times are doing but what there is suggests I was optimistic. So 17 remaining weeks could be optimistic and even if it is about right that is ~mid March.

[wannamoonbase]

...Not much data on how my best est times are doing but what there is suggests I was optimistic. So 17 remaining weeks could be optimistic and even if it is about right that is ~mid March.

I can see you taking a lot of heat from different folks about this projection, but I don't think you're wrong.

Here's the upside for those that don't like a Mid March est.
1) More diligence on V3 preps should mean more success than the debacle that was the early V2 flights.
2) There is a lot of new V3 stuff to happen in that time frame that will be must watch streaming
3) The amount of vehicles stacking up behind B18S39 means successive flights should happen in rapid fashion

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/wvmattz/status/1989739200451940619

MattZ
@wvmattz

Moments ago, Ship 39 was lifted, revealing five newly installed transfer tubes!  A short while later, it was set back down on a short stand in the front area of MB2!

https://twitter.com/HardcoreElectr1/status/1989732340780949514

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/TrackingTheSB/status/1989876436992156115

StarbaseTracking
@TrackingTheSB

Ship 39's aft dome has rolled out of Starfactory!

This is the final barrel section for Ship 39.

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/wvmattz/status/1989902770086851014

MattZ
@wvmattz

Ship 39’s aft section (the last piece to be stacked) was moved into MB2 and connected to the rest of the ship.  We saw it lift just moments before SpaceX closed the bay door.  The next time we see S39, it’s likely to be fully stacked.

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1991292634820903389

NSF - NASASpaceflight.com
@NASASpaceflight
Booster 18 is outside.

Dedicated live commentary will be here when rolling to Masseys:

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1991571181129056663

SpaceX
@SpaceX

Booster 18, the first Super Heavy V3, is beginning prelaunch testing. The first operations will test the booster's redesigned propellant systems and its structural strength

Move mega-post

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1991386846656622628

https://twitter.com/ENNEPS/status/1991458370235363376

https://twitter.com/StarshipGazer/status/1991307319930679478

https://twitter.com/StarshipGazer/status/1991456088307511343

[catdlr]

This thread is temporarily locked for a few days. All posts related to the testing anomaly at Massey concerning this booster are to be directed to the following thread:

Booster 18 Testing Anomaly - Massey - Nov 21, 2025
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=63923.0

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/CyberguruG8073/status/1991994414139634084

Cyberguru
@CyberguruG8073
·
9m
Starship Hardware Diagram (2025-11-16 - 2025-11-21)

RIP To Booster 18
Significant Changes

B21 AFT Spotted (No longer Speculative)
S41 Receives a FWD Flap
S42 Receives Pyron Ablative
B19-20 AFT Should Exist Since B21 AFT

@NASASpaceflight
 For Spotting The Hardware
@TrackingTheSB

[catdlr]

This thread is temporarily locked for a few days. All posts related to the testing anomaly at Massey concerning this booster are to be directed to the following thread:

Booster 18 Testing Anomaly - Massey - Nov 21, 2025
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=63923.0

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1992287913036648577

SpaceX
@SpaceX
The Starbase team plans to have the next Super Heavy booster stacked in December, which puts it on pace with the test schedule planned for the first Starship V3 vehicle and associated ground systems. Starship’s twelfth flight test remains targeted for the first quarter of 2026.
9:43 AM · Nov 22, 2025
·

[catdlr]

This discussion has been reopened now that SpaceX is planning to utilize Booster 19 and remains prepared for a launch in the first quarter of 2026.

All posts related to the testing anomaly at Massey concerning booster 18 are to be directed to the following thread:

Booster 18 Testing Anomaly - Massey - Nov 21, 2025
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=63923.0


[Corrected the Year typo - Tony]

[mlindner]

SpaceX has posted saying that this basically won't delay things as it wasn't the pacing item. Next booster stacked in December.

The Starbase team plans to have the next Super Heavy booster stacked in December, which puts it on pace with the test schedule planned for the first Starship V3 vehicle and associated ground systems. Starship’s twelfth flight test remains targeted for the first quarter of 2026.

https://x.com/SpaceX/status/1992287913036648577

[OTV Booster]

We don't really know what realistic timeline was before that, but it was no earlier than january, add no less than two months to that and you have an answer.

I don’t agree this necessarily adds 2 full months. They were probably intending to fly just 1-2 months after this anyway, and that’s a full 2 stages (this stage failed during initial testing, before engines were placed and before fully proofed, and only the first stage). Maybe 1 month. End of February is possible, but could be March or something.

Good point re intending to fly next starship, but they may have been hoping to get Booster 18 back to fly ship 40 and if they didn't get it back then maybe it is likely there is some issue that would cause a delay anyway?

Booster 18 stacking dates:
SpaceX Starship Booster 18's stacking officially commenced on May 19, 2025, with the full stacking process, combining the liquid oxygen and methane tanks, concluding on November 5, 2025?

Booster 19 hasn't started stacking yet?

Based on that Booster 19 might be 6 month behind booster 18 however it seems likely stacking process was held up waiting for B18.X testing and they can do it faster a second time. So I wouldn't assume it is a 5 month delay but 1 month might be very optimistic.

I was expecting late March to be earliest date for flight 12 to become likely using booster 18 so I am thinking May, June or possibly even July using booster 19. i.e. 2, 3 or 4 months later.

B18 took longer to stack since it was the first V3, B19 should be closer to the 2-3 months V2 boosters took to stack, and eventually it should be further reduced.

Yup. And we can no longer see the all the production process. The latest booster diagram showed several boosters at the exact same point of assembly with the top ring(s), HSR and one or two ring further down.


They're either building them in parallel, which I doubt, or booster 19 is further along and ready or near ready for stacking.  With the announcement that 19 will be stacked next month, most of the rings, or ring assemblies are probably in hand.

[xvel]

SpaceX has posted saying that this basically won't delay things as it wasn't the pacing item. Next booster stacked in December.

The Starbase team plans to have the next Super Heavy booster stacked in December, which puts it on pace with the test schedule planned for the first Starship V3 vehicle and associated ground systems. Starship’s twelfth flight test remains targeted for the first quarter of 2026.

https://x.com/SpaceX/status/1992287913036648577

Exactly, and if it won't delay things, it may even make things go faster right?

Flight 12 was supposed to take place in December, then in January, and now in the first quarter... [Inappropriate comment - deleted - Tony], this is damage control post by SpaceX, right now, they are in a really bad place pr-wise, and you're seeing it through rose-tinted glasses on top of that, sure delays won't be huge, it's SpaceX after all, but come on, let's not pretend that nothing happened...

[meekGee]

SpaceX has posted saying that this basically won't delay things as it wasn't the pacing item. Next booster stacked in December.

The Starbase team plans to have the next Super Heavy booster stacked in December, which puts it on pace with the test schedule planned for the first Starship V3 vehicle and associated ground systems. Starship’s twelfth flight test remains targeted for the first quarter of 2026.

https://x.com/SpaceX/status/1992287913036648577

Exactly, and if it won't delay things, it may even make things go faster right?

Flight 12 was supposed to take place in december, then in january, and now in the first quarter... Stop with copium, this is damage control post by SpaceX, right now, they are in a really bad place pr-wise, and you're seeing it through rose-tinted glasses on top of that, sure delays won't be huge, it's SpaceX after all, but come on, let's not pretend that nothing happened...

Correct, but the EXTRA delay might just indeed be one month, that's not far fetched.

They're still one booster short though so will have to build another, and that will impact ship building.

And yeah timing was shitty, and of course PR matters.  Can't blame BO for capitalizing, or SpaceX for mitigating.

[AndrewM]

These are a bit late and then with the shutdown the FCC page wasn't accessible but 3 filings for Flight 12 were made with requested period of operations from October 4, 2025 to April 4, 2026.

1798-EX-ST-2025 is pending as of September 16.

Please explain in the area below why an STA is necessary:
This STA uses information from previous grant 1124-EX-ST-2025. This STA is necessary to authorize Starship Test Flight 12 vehicle communications launching from Starbase TX. Application includes a sub-orbital first stage booster and a second stage. Trajectory data will be provided directly to NTIA, USAF, and NASA. Launch licensing authority is FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation.

Please explain the purpose of operation:    
Launch vehicle communications for Test Flight 12 mission launching from Starbase, TX. The first stage booster and the second stage will either return to the launch site or perform a water landing.

1799-EX-ST-2025 was granted on September 30.

Please explain in the area below why an STA is necessary:
This STA uses information from previous grant 1395-EX-ST-2025, adding the Starbase Office antenna location and removing the GS9 MegaBay location. STA is necessary to authorize an additional power level for uplink frequencies 2056 MHz and 2062 MHz for the booster and ship on Starship Test Flight 12 launching from Starbase TX. This STA is necessary for Starship Super Heavy vehicle communications at SpaceX facilities located in Boca Chica TX.

Please explain the purpose of operation:    
Launch vehicle communications for test Starship Test Flight 12 mission launching from Starbase, TX. It is used for a tracking beam.

1800-EX-ST-2025 was granted on September 30.

Please explain in the area below why an STA is necessary:
This STA uses information from grant 1536-EX-ST-2025 for high power uplink static beams at the South Padre Island and Starbase Office antenna locations. STA is necessary to authorize a static beam for uplink frequencies 2056 MHz and 2062 MHz for the booster and ship on Starship Test Flight 12 launching from Starbase TX. This STA is necessary for Starship Super Heavy vehicle communications at SpaceX facilities located in Boca Chica TX.

Please explain the purpose of operation:    
Launch vehicle communications for test Starship Test Flight 12 mission launching from Starbase, TX. It is used for a static beam.

[AndrewM]

Three more batches of Raptor 3s transported.

https://twitter.com/SpaceRhin0/status/1989441563093864649?s=20 [Nov. 14]

Yet another Raptor 3 Record!

Another 4 engines moved at McGregor, R64, R60, R62 and an unknown engine!

📷: https://nsf.live/mcgregor

https://twitter.com/SpaceRhin0/status/1990826088147108173?s=20 [Nov. 18]

4 in a row!

R3.65, R3.66, R3.67 and R3.68 have all just rolled past at McGregor, Having 4 seemingly flight ready engines in a row feels like a really good place to be in at the moment!
(And yes, for those with a single digit mental age, yes 67 ha ha)

📷: https://nsf.live/mcgregor

https://twitter.com/SpaceRhin0/status/1992346619275276465?s=20 [Nov. 22]

I'm a bit late but yesterday we saw 3 more raptors heading past at McGregor!

📷: https://nsf.live/mcgregor

Recent snips from NSF Videos.

[Nov 13]

Ship 39 in Mega Bay 2 @ 4:33

[Nov. 16]

Ship 39 Moved to Ring Stand @ 10:10
Ship 39 Aft Rolled to MB2 @ 10:53

[OTV Booster]

We don't really know what realistic timeline was before that, but it was no earlier than january, add no less than two months to that and you have an answer.

I don’t agree this necessarily adds 2 full months. They were probably intending to fly just 1-2 months after this anyway, and that’s a full 2 stages (this stage failed during initial testing, before engines were placed and before fully proofed, and only the first stage). Maybe 1 month. End of February is possible, but could be March or something.

Good point re intending to fly next starship, but they may have been hoping to get Booster 18 back to fly ship 40 and if they didn't get it back then maybe it is likely there is some issue that would cause a delay anyway?

Booster 18 stacking dates:
SpaceX Starship Booster 18's stacking officially commenced on May 19, 2025, with the full stacking process, combining the liquid oxygen and methane tanks, concluding on November 5, 2025?

Booster 19 hasn't started stacking yet?

Based on that Booster 19 might be 6 month behind booster 18 however it seems likely stacking process was held up waiting for B18.X testing and they can do it faster a second time. So I wouldn't assume it is a 5 month delay but 1 month might be very optimistic.

I was expecting late March to be earliest date for flight 12 to become likely using booster 18 so I am thinking May, June or possibly even July using booster 19. i.e. 2, 3 or 4 months later.

B18 took longer to stack since it was the first V3, B19 should be closer to the 2-3 months V2 boosters took to stack, and eventually it should be further reduced.

Yup. And we can no longer see the all the production process. The latest booster diagram showed several boosters at the exact same point of assembly with the top ring(s), HSR and one or two ring further down.


They're either building them in parallel, which I doubt, or booster 19 is further along and ready or near ready for stacking.  With the announcement that 19 will be stacked next month, most of the rings, or ring assemblies are probably in hand.

Ahh. The iron hand of control shows benevolence. This was posted in the 'anomaly' thread and catdir moved it here where it belongs. Along the way the chart got embedded. Thank you catdir. I didn't have it in hand.

The chart that was referenced was from within the last week or so and IIRC, showed 2-3 more boosters with scant top and bottom structure.

Thanks again Tony.


Edit: oops, my bad. The chart showed a long string of SHIPS with nosecone and bottom structure.

[catdlr]

We don't really know what realistic timeline was before that, but it was no earlier than january, add no less than two months to that and you have an answer.

I don’t agree this necessarily adds 2 full months. They were probably intending to fly just 1-2 months after this anyway, and that’s a full 2 stages (this stage failed during initial testing, before engines were placed and before fully proofed, and only the first stage). Maybe 1 month. End of February is possible, but could be March or something.

Good point re intending to fly next starship, but they may have been hoping to get Booster 18 back to fly ship 40 and if they didn't get it back then maybe it is likely there is some issue that would cause a delay anyway?

Booster 18 stacking dates:
SpaceX Starship Booster 18's stacking officially commenced on May 19, 2025, with the full stacking process, combining the liquid oxygen and methane tanks, concluding on November 5, 2025?

Booster 19 hasn't started stacking yet?

Based on that Booster 19 might be 6 month behind booster 18 however it seems likely stacking process was held up waiting for B18.X testing and they can do it faster a second time. So I wouldn't assume it is a 5 month delay but 1 month might be very optimistic.

I was expecting late March to be earliest date for flight 12 to become likely using booster 18 so I am thinking May, June or possibly even July using booster 19. i.e. 2, 3 or 4 months later.

B18 took longer to stack since it was the first V3, B19 should be closer to the 2-3 months V2 boosters took to stack, and eventually it should be further reduced.

Yup. And we can no longer see the all the production process. The latest booster diagram showed several boosters at the exact same point of assembly with the top ring(s), HSR and one or two ring further down.


They're either building them in parallel, which I doubt, or booster 19 is further along and ready or near ready for stacking.  With the announcement that 19 will be stacked next month, most of the rings, or ring assemblies are probably in hand.

Ahh. The iron hand of control shows benevolence. This was posted in the 'anomaly' thread and catdir moved it here where it belongs. Along the way the chart got embedded. Thank you catdir. I didn't have it in hand.

The chart that was referenced was from within the last week or so and IIRC, showed 2-3 more boosters with scant top and bottom structure.

Thanks again Tony.


Edit: oops, my bad. The chart showed a long string of SHIPS with nosecone and bottom structure.

You're welcome, OTV Booster.

That chart is only as reliable as the information obtainable through photographing the high windows and the segments exiting the side door. The missing middle sections are likely constructed; however, until they pass through the side door and parade across the driveway, the chart cannot be updated as fast as it did when we had the ring yard available. This explains the absence of the middle pieces.

[StraumliBlight]

Earliest launch date is currently NET January 23rd according to the STA.

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1993269103197405282

NSF - NASASpaceflight.com
@NASASpaceflight
Starship Flight 12: Booster 19 subbing in, with A2 rolling for stacking.

SpaceX noted the goal of stacking B19 by December, so here we go.

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/AshleyKillip/status/1993404406440841404

ChromeKiwi
@AshleyKillip

Parts for Booster 19 are moving along into Maga Bay 1 from Starfactory for stacking through December ahead of rollout. Many changes will need to be tested shorter chopsticks, new ship lifting pins, booster lifting pins with grid fins, new ship qd interface,hostbstage interface new staging clamps. new booster hold down clamps, new start sequence for Raptor 3, new booster qds( retraction testing) top watercooled pancake,new tank farm tanking/de tanking, new flame bucket and deluge system just to name a few.

[catdlr]

Reposted here for Booster 19, Ship 39 status:

https://twitter.com/CyberguruG8073/status/1993432448223662307


Cyberguru
@CyberguruG8073

Starship Hardware Diagram (2025-11-21 - 2025-11-25)

Significant Changes :

Booster 18 CH4 Tank Cut Off; Half The LOX Tank Is Also Cut Off.

B19 Has Started Stacking; A2:3 Rolled into MB1 Earlier

Ship 46 Has Been Moved To A Workstand

[OTV Booster]

Reposted here for Booster 19, Ship 39 status:

Cyberguru
@CyberguruG8073
Starship Hardware Diagram (2025-11-21 - 2025-11-25)
Significant Changes :
Booster 18 CH4 Tank Cut Off; Half The LOX Tank Is Also Cut Off.
B19 Has Started Stacking; A2:3 Rolled into MB1 Earlier
Ship 46 Has Been Moved To A Workstand

What is A2:3?  A workstand?

[OTV Booster]

As was predicted when construction began, star factory production is more opaque than the tents. The happy days are over.


Booster 19 has obvious priority. Will they also put resources into booster 20 to ensure redundancy? OLM 2 has a lot of new systems to test and most need a booster on the mount or the test is incomplete. Each test having a non zero risk of a serious oops. It sure would be a comfort to know that there's a relief booster in the bullpen.

[lightleviathan]

Reposted here for Booster 19, Ship 39 status:

Cyberguru
@CyberguruG8073
Starship Hardware Diagram (2025-11-21 - 2025-11-25)
Significant Changes :
Booster 18 CH4 Tank Cut Off; Half The LOX Tank Is Also Cut Off.
B19 Has Started Stacking; A2:3 Rolled into MB1 Earlier
Ship 46 Has Been Moved To A Workstand

What is A2:3?  A workstand?

The second aft barrel section of the vehicle containing 3 rings IIRC

[xvel]

As was predicted when construction began, star factory production is more opaque than the tents. The happy days are over.

Booster 19 has obvious priority. Will they also put resources into booster 20 to ensure redundancy? OLM 2 has a lot of new systems to test and most need a booster on the mount or the test is incomplete. Each test having a non zero risk of a serious oops. It sure would be a comfort to know that there's a relief booster in the bullpen.

There is a production line, rushing B19 and B20 at the cost of delaying B21+ doesn't make much sense in the long run and can cause more problems. There is also a second production line for upper stages, they may slow it down somewhat and use the workers and the tools to give a booster line a little boost without causing delays for future boosters if they are actually short on boosters and really need one for the OLM testing.

[catdlr]

A2:3 is the LOX Barrel Section two with three rings just below the standard dome.  The video posted earlier showed this as a four-barrel section, so it should be A2:4. I have a note to him to explain the difference between his B18 ring chart and his comment.  The video rollout doesn't lie.

The post on X was corrected to A2:4

https://twitter.com/CyberguruG8073/status/1993524874535739420

[mlindner]

SpaceX has posted saying that this basically won't delay things as it wasn't the pacing item. Next booster stacked in December.

The Starbase team plans to have the next Super Heavy booster stacked in December, which puts it on pace with the test schedule planned for the first Starship V3 vehicle and associated ground systems. Starship’s twelfth flight test remains targeted for the first quarter of 2026.

https://x.com/SpaceX/status/1992287913036648577

Exactly, and if it won't delay things, it may even make things go faster right?

Flight 12 was supposed to take place in December, then in January, and now in the first quarter... [Inappropriate comment - deleted - Tony], this is damage control post by SpaceX, right now, they are in a really bad place pr-wise, and you're seeing it through rose-tinted glasses on top of that, sure delays won't be huge, it's SpaceX after all, but come on, let's not pretend that nothing happened...

<edited my comment as original comment was edited>

Secondly, it's not damage control if it's true. The booster was not the pacing item for the next flight. Yes there is likely some schedule shift from the booster loss, but not as much as if it was the pacing item.

Thirdly, Flight 12 was not supposed to take place in December or in January. There was no such published date.

[crandles57]

Secondly, it's not damage control if it's true. The booster was not the pacing item for the next flight. Yes there is likely some schedule shift from the booster loss, but not as much as if it was the pacing item.

Thirdly, Flight 12 was not supposed to take place in December or in January. There was no such published date.

I think there are signs that there is some "PR" in that tweet: Firstly stacking of booster 19 is mentioned for December but booster 18 was a couple of weeks past that and ready for pressure and cryo test. This is nearer 2 months later than 1 month later. Maybe booster 18 wasn't on the critical path, I don't know but I seriously doubt there was as much as a month spare time so that the delay is less than a month.

Secondly if they can get it stacked in Dec which seems ambitious then 2 weeks to get it ready for pressure and cryo tests, those tests, another 4 weeks more build and add raptors, pad commissioning, static fire booster, final preps of booster, stack ship, checkout of pad's ship quick disconnect and launch. With all that very late Q1 for launch might be possible but it all seems very ambitious.

The tweet seems to be saying it is no big deal when in reality there is some delay being caused. If they are pushing things to say that to try to maintain it is no big deal, do we trust them about booster 18 not being on the critical path?

Why are you so sure that "The booster was not the pacing item for the next flight"?


January had been mentioned as a possible earliest date rather than an official NET date but it seemed a bit unrealistic before B18 mishap.

[sferrin]

As was predicted when construction began, star factory production is more opaque than the tents. The happy days are over.

I miss Ring Watcher. 

[mlindner]

Secondly, it's not damage control if it's true. The booster was not the pacing item for the next flight. Yes there is likely some schedule shift from the booster loss, but not as much as if it was the pacing item.

Thirdly, Flight 12 was not supposed to take place in December or in January. There was no such published date.

I think there are signs that there is some "PR" in that tweet: Firstly stacking of booster 19 is mentioned for December but booster 18 was a couple of weeks past that and ready for pressure and cryo test. This is nearer 2 months later than 1 month later. Maybe booster 18 wasn't on the critical path, I don't know but I seriously doubt there was as much as a month spare time so that the delay is less than a month.

Secondly if they can get it stacked in Dec which seems ambitious then 2 weeks to get it ready for pressure and cryo tests, those tests, another 4 weeks more build and add raptors, pad commissioning, static fire booster, final preps of booster, stack ship, checkout of pad's ship quick disconnect and launch. With all that very late Q1 for launch might be possible but it all seems very ambitious.

The tweet seems to be saying it is no big deal when in reality there is some delay being caused. If they are pushing things to say that to try to maintain it is no big deal, do we trust them about booster 18 not being on the critical path?

Why are you so sure that "The booster was not the pacing item for the next flight"?


January had been mentioned as a possible earliest date rather than an official NET date but it seemed a bit unrealistic before B18 mishap.

I think you're somewhat missing what I was trying to convey so I'll type it out longer.

When something is the "pacing item" it means that any schedule delay in that item has a knock-on effect and delays the final objective day by day. So if the booster was the pacing item, any delay in getting the booster ready would have delayed the launch. However the booster was not the pacing item. It was in fact the first thing ready out of the factory. The ship isn't ready nor is the pad finished construction. That means that the booster could get delayed quite a bit before it starts having an effect on the launch date. I think you'd agree that booster 18 was not in a state where it was 2 months away from being ready for launch. It was much closer to being ready than that.

Secondly, while I agree the stated schedule for Booster 19 is aggressive, you can only really use past examples of schedule as a sort of maximum length it will take. As the processes improve the schedule will only accelerate. Especially the schedule drop from the first iteration to the second iteration will be the biggest decrease in time.

The tweet is saying "booster 18 was ahead of schedule versus the other two items, now the booster schedule is on-par with the pad and the ship".

As to why I'm sure, I guess I'm not sure why you're asking. It seems obvious to me. It's demonstrated by what we see. It was heading out for testing already while the ship is still in the hanger and the pad is still quite a bit from being completed. It's also demonstrated by what SpaceX themselves said. If having a booster stacked by end of December put it on pace with the ship and pad, that means, definitionally, that the previous booster was ahead of the pace of the ship and pad.

[OTV Booster]

As was predicted when construction began, star factory production is more opaque than the tents. The happy days are over.

Booster 19 has obvious priority. Will they also put resources into booster 20 to ensure redundancy? OLM 2 has a lot of new systems to test and most need a booster on the mount or the test is incomplete. Each test having a non zero risk of a serious oops. It sure would be a comfort to know that there's a relief booster in the bullpen.

There is a production line, rushing B19 and B20 at the cost of delaying B21+ doesn't make much sense in the long run and can cause more problems. There is also a second production line for upper stages, they may slow it down somewhat and use the workers and the tools to give a booster line a little boost without causing delays for future boosters if they are actually short on boosters and really need one for the OLM testing.

Some semantic confusion here. It is a line that produces and it will ultimately pop out boosters like sausage. Today it produces one off development models.


Back in the early days it seemed there was always a near clone following hard on the heels on the next test article. If there was on oops other than a flat out design flaw there was a chance it wouldn't hold things up too long. The clone usually ended up in the rocket garden with test lessons learned baked into the next unit.


If they can routinely pop out a booster every 3 weeks (example only) and they can accelerate B20 and deliver two weeks after B19 and then deliver B21 5 weeks later they have oops insurance and some extra time for mods.


Or, like you suggest, shift the labor from elsewhere and deliver B21 when previously expected. Only take extra time for mods if needed instead of baking it into the schedule.


With a new OLM to be tested keeping a relief booster in the bullpen seems like a good approach. The idea of a B19.1 for OLM testing crossed my mind but on second thought ISTM it would have to be virtually a full booster, so what's the point?

[crandles57]

I think you'd agree that booster 18 was not in a state where it was 2 months away from being ready for launch. It was much closer to being ready than that.

I don't think I would agree with that see what I previously suggested

Booster 18 timeline

Finish B18.x test tank testing____________________1 week?_____________??
Finish stacking booster_________________________1 week?_____________2 weeks?
Further work pre pressure cryo tests______________1 week?_____________2 weeks?
Roll to Massey (& back),  pressure cryo tests________4 days?_____________1 week?
Further build add flaps engines___________________2 week?_____________4 weeks?
Roll to pad, Pad testing with booster_______________2 weeks?____________4 weeks?
Static fire____________________________________3 days?_____________1 week?
Final booster preps_____________________________2 weeks?____________3 weeks?
Roll to pad, stack ship and launch__________________1 week?____________2 weeks?

Total_________________________________________11 weeks?__________20+ weeks?

That looks like about 15 weeks from roll to Masseys for pressure and cryo test point that booster 18 was 2 days past at the time of the incident to launch date. 15 weeks is a bit longer than 2 months.

Now I am thinking more like 15 weeks after mid January if they get B19 stacked by end of this year. So the very end of q1 might be plausible if I have overestimated in places and even if I haven't, that doesn't stop SpaceX trying to say they are sticking to a q1 aim for launch date as a bit of PR damage limitation when it is a bit debateable whether Q1 launch is possible or not.

It will be interesting to see, and it could be me that is badly out on my timing expectations, but completely trusting such a PR damage limitation tweet seems to have some potential for turning out to appear naive.

[meekGee]

I think you'd agree that booster 18 was not in a state where it was 2 months away from being ready for launch. It was much closer to being ready than that.

I don't think I would agree with that see what I previously suggested

Booster 18 timeline

Finish B18.x test tank testing____________________1 week?_____________??
Finish stacking booster_________________________1 week?_____________2 weeks?
Further work pre pressure cryo tests______________1 week?_____________2 weeks?
Roll to Massey (&amp; back),  pressure cryo tests________4 days?_____________1 week?
Further build add flaps engines___________________2 week?_____________4 weeks?
Roll to pad, Pad testing with booster_______________2 weeks?____________4 weeks?
Static fire____________________________________3 days?_____________1 week?
Final booster preps_____________________________2 weeks?____________3 weeks?
Roll to pad, stack ship and launch__________________1 week?____________2 weeks?

Total_________________________________________11 weeks?__________20+ weeks?

That looks like about 15 weeks from roll to Masseys for pressure and cryo test point that booster 18 was 2 days past at the time of the incident to launch date. 15 weeks is a bit longer than 2 months.

Now I am thinking more like 15 weeks after mid January if they get B19 stacked by end of this year. So the very end of q1 might be plausible if I have overestimated in places and even if I haven't, that doesn't stop SpaceX trying to say they are sticking to a q1 aim for launch date as a bit of PR damage limitation when it is a bit debateable whether Q1 launch is possible or not.

It will be interesting to see, and it could be me that is badly out on my timing expectations, but completely trusting such a PR damage limitation tweet seems to have some potential for turning out to appear naive.

It's a PR and nobody believes it completely, definitely not the schedule part.  That's a long way from saying it's hogwash though.

[alugobi]

It's a PR and nobody believes it completely

"Nobody" being a rather limited number of interested observers.  And, as you say, we ourselves are skeptical of such pronouncements.

I believe that any appeal to PR is whistling into the wind.  There just aren't that many people who care about Starship, not to mention SpaceX.  --Unless there's a big explosion or the owner again says or does something cringe-worthy.  Even so, those blow over quickly. 

Space flight is simply not important to almost everyone.

[meekGee]

It's a PR and nobody believes it completely

"Nobody" being a rather limited number of interested observers.  And, as you say, we ourselves are skeptical of such pronouncements.

I believe that any appeal to PR is whistling into the wind.  There just aren't that many people who care about Starship, not to mention SpaceX.  --Unless there's a big explosion or the owner again says or does something cringe-worthy.  Even so, those blow over quickly. 

Space flight is simply not important to almost everyone.

It was a proclamational "nobody"...  As in "almost none of the people currently participating in the debate", only shorter....

Maybe phrased better:

Of course the PR will lean optimistic, but based on history it's just the optimistic side of what they believe current scheduling is.  Not delusional, but also not accurate.

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/CSI_Starbase/status/1993895586052100280

Zack Golden
@CSI_Starbase

Booster 19 common dome preparing to be stacked onto the A2:4 section. It will be interesting to see if this booster is speed stacked.

Not speed stacked - meaning rushed - but less delays between each operation

https://twitter.com/TrackingTheSB/status/1993894647081652385

StarbaseTracking
@TrackingTheSB

Booster 19's CX:3 has rolled out of SFC.

[catdlr]

Booster 19 stacking begins as SpaceX pushes forward from B18 anomaly

written by Ryan Weber November 28, 2025

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/TrackingTheSB/status/1994563092240634118

StarbaseTracking
@TrackingTheSB

Booster 19's A3:4 has rolled into Megabay 1.

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/wvmattz/status/1995848126260019449

MattZ
@wvmattz

Earlier this morning, the Booster 19 Aft 5 section was rolled into MB1 for stacking. Crews are wasting NO time here as the push toward Starship Flight 12 continues!

[catdlr]

A6 and the bottom of the transfer tube rolled into MB1. What is covered with the red cover may be the landing tank, but that might be rolled out later today or tomorrow as a separate item on its mounting jig. Only the engine aft section remains on the Lox tank half.

Chart: Green indicates what's been stacked, and Red is the A6 section moved out early this morning.

https://discord.com/channels/732509550606942268/870736230227259452/1446082926604456008

[AndrewM]

These are a bit late and then with the shutdown the FCC page wasn't accessible but 3 filings for Flight 12 were made with requested period of operations from October 4, 2025 to April 4, 2026.

1798-EX-ST-2025 is pending as of September 16.

Please explain in the area below why an STA is necessary:
This STA uses information from previous grant 1124-EX-ST-2025. This STA is necessary to authorize Starship Test Flight 12 vehicle communications launching from Starbase TX. Application includes a sub-orbital first stage booster and a second stage. Trajectory data will be provided directly to NTIA, USAF, and NASA. Launch licensing authority is FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation.

Please explain the purpose of operation:    
Launch vehicle communications for Test Flight 12 mission launching from Starbase, TX. The first stage booster and the second stage will either return to the launch site or perform a water landing.

According to 2010-EX-ST-2025, this filing was withdrawn and replaced by 2010-EX-ST-2025 with a requested period of operation between January 23rd and June 28th. Below is the information from that STA. This filing is currently pending.

Explanation
Please explain in the area below why an STA is necessary:
This STA uses information from previous grant 1124-EX-ST-2025. This STA is necessary to authorize Starship Test Flight 12 vehicle communications launching from Starbase TX. Application includes a sub-orbital first stage booster and a second stage. Trajectory data will be provided directly to NTIA, USAF, and NASA. Launch licensing authority is FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation.

Purpose of Operation
Please explain the purpose of operation: Launch vehicle communications for Test Flight 12 mission launching from Starbase, TX. The first stage booster and the second stage will either return to the launch site or perform a water landing. The application 1798-EX-ST-2025 associated with this file, is withdrawn.

Update from SpaceX on Raptor 3:
https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1996326904706572398?s=20 [Dec. 3]

Validation testing on a Raptor 3 performing a Starship V3 ascent burn. Multiple versions of this test will cover the different conditions seen by Starship’s three inner engines during its initial climb to space

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/TrackingTheSB/status/1997364476782272650

StarbaseTracking
@TrackingTheSB
Booster 19's transfer tube has rolled out!

Areas in green were installed early this morning and are being delivered for installation.

After the transfer tub is installed, the following item to roll out is the LOX landing tank on its transportation jig, and then the final aft section

[catdlr]

LOX Landing tank getting ready for Rollout:


https://twitter.com/AshleyKillip/status/1998640016059416691

ChromeKiwi
@AshleyKillip

Booster 19 speed run continues with the raceway spotted moving into the mega bay, and now the LOX landing tank has been located, moving through the factory for fit out, and then soon out the door.

[catdlr]

And here is B19 LOX Landing Tank on its way to MB1

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1998771828446359561

Timelapse:
https://twitter.com/ENNEPS/status/1998811664825929780

Elisar Priel
@ENNEPS

Booster 19's liquid oxygen landing tank went for a ride around the production site, and has been staged outside of Megabay 1 ahead of installation.

[OTV Booster]

While we've been focusing on ships and boosters it looks like that 1000x harder machine that makes the machines has been maturing too.

[AndrewM]

Clips from ""Thats a fine looking Starship" | SpaceX Starbase" [Dec. 7]. The relevant section for Flight 12 is 6:08-7:49.

(tony has adjusted the video to start at 6:08)

6:08 Ship 39 in Mega Bay 2
6:53 Booster 19 Section Rolled Into MB1
7:05 Transfer Tube Section Rolled
7:16 Transfer Tube Rolled Into MB1

https://twitter.com/TrackingTheSB/status/1999293306514084337?s=20 [Dec. 11]

Today, Booster 19 has been visible towards the middle of Megabay 1!

The next barrel section for Booster 19 is its aft.

Track Starbase Here: https://figma.com/design/2AvC161FuB1VFNLUpAVAV2/Starship-Tracking---Starbase-Tx?node-id=0-1&t=GB2V3IGwrpoLiwkw-1
Join Our Discord Here: https://discord.gg/ZbrSYPzDAq

📸NSF | Starbase Live https://nsf.live/starbase

#Tracking #starship #Starbase #SpaceX

https://twitter.com/TrackingTheSB/status/1999315953298149587?s=20 [Dec. 11]

Booster 19's liquid oxygen autogenous pressurization line looks to have been installed.

Track Starbase Here: https://figma.com/design/2AvC161FuB1VFNLUpAVAV2/Starship-Tracking---Starbase-Tx?node-id=0-1&t=GB2V3IGwrpoLiwkw-1
Join Our Discord Here: https://discord.gg/ZbrSYPzDAq

📸NSF | Starbase Live https://nsf.live/starbase

#Tracking #starship #Starbase #SpaceX

[catdlr]

After the transfer Tube was delivered and placed into the booster, the last bottom section of the booster, the "aft section," is now rolled in for integration.  After the aft is integrated, the methane tanks will start rolling out.

In the diagram, the red area is the aft section, and the green area has been integrated.

https://twitter.com/lewisknaggs42/status/1999837684253298898

Lewis Knaggs
@lewisknaggs42
B19 aft section rolled to MB1

[OTV Booster]

After the transfer Tube was delivered and placed into the booster, the last bottom section of the booster, the "aft section," is now rolled in for integration.  After the aft is integrated, the methan tanks will start rolling out.

In the diagram, the red area is the aft section, and the green area has been integrated.

Lewis Knaggs
@lewisknaggs42
B19 aft section rolled to MB1

There's always a bunch of fiddly work on the interior that we don't get to see. In the past they have been doing more of this in each segment before stacking.


Knowing how SpaceX likes to work I'm gonna guess that one design goal of V3 is to maximize this so as to not tie up that expensive vertical bay space any more than necessary. If I got this right Musk may well have that booster out of the bay and testing the pad before the end of the month.

[crandles57]

There's always a bunch of fiddly work on the interior that we don't get to see. In the past they have been doing more of this in each segment before stacking.


Knowing how SpaceX likes to work I'm gonna guess that one design goal of V3 is to maximize this so as to not tie up that expensive vertical bay space any more than necessary. If I got this right Musk may well have that booster out of the bay and testing the pad before the end of the month.

After the aft section there are 3 more barrels, at continued fast pace of 3 days a piece, this takes us to ~22 Dec.

There was a couple? of weeks between last stacking and roll to Masseys.

It wasn't clear if booster might go from Masseys to launch pad for some launch pad testing.
More normally there would be ~4+ weeks of further build work including adding flaps and engines at the end of this build time before rolling to pad for static fire.

They are moving at a much fast rate and it looks like they will complete stacking this year at the rate they are going.

Rolling out to the pad seems rather ambitious.

Roll to Masseys for pressure and cryo tests might be just about possible but still difficult to achieve?

[catdlr]

Weekly Booster/Ship Production Stacking Status:

https://twitter.com/CyberguruG8073/status/1999994860519207375

Cyberguru
@CyberguruG8073
Starship Hardware Diagram (2025-12-04 - 2025-12-13)

Changes :

B19's Transfer Tube; Landing Tank, and AFT Section Rolled Into Megabay 1

S39 Raceway's Were Spotted Vertically in Megabay 2 for Installation

[Brigantine]

that booster out of the bay and testing the pad before the end of the month.

to Masseys

Maybe they can use a test tank on pad 2 for tank farm testing before the end of the month?

Maybe B19 goes straight from Masseys ambient/cryo testing to the pad, still without engines - depends what the long pole is.
After B18 and in light of ongoing COPV issues, I don't think they'll be doing ambient & cryo booster-validation tests at the pad

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/WatchersTank/status/2001284127442518254

TankWatchers
@WatchersTank
🚨BOOSTER 19 STACKING!
During the night the first CH4 tank section rolled out to the MegaBay, the very first piece of the methane tank for B19 after the LOX section was completed. Starbase is wasting no time!

Picture: Green is completed;  Red is being stacked.

[AndrewM]

"What in the UFO are they building??" | SpaceX Starbase [Dec. 13]

2:08 Booster 19 LOX Landing Tank
3:40 Ship 39 in Mega Bay 2

[catdlr]

https://x.com/TrackingTheSB/status/2001811659837354491

StarbaseTracking
@TrackingTheSB

2 of the 3 barrel sections for Booster 19's CH4 tank have been rolled out.

Tony -  Stacking chart updated.

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/wvmattz/status/2001821438647693598

MattZ
@wvmattz
·
Earlier this afternoon, Booster 19’s forward section was seen rolling across the ring yard headed into Mega Bay 1. 

Crews are making incredible progress on the Starship Flight 12 vehicle!

https://twitter.com/TrackingTheSB/status/2001816301057249593

B19 Stacking Chart updated - Tony

[dxcubfan]

Does this mean all of the segments of B19 are in Mega Bay 1 now?  It looks like SpaceX might just have it ready to test by the end of the month.

[catdlr]

Does this mean all of the segments of B19 are in Mega Bay 1 now?  It looks like SpaceX might just have it ready to test by the end of the month.

Welcome to the forum.

This is not Lego. There is considerable additional work involved both internally and externally. External piping and electrical runs are required, along with the installation of COPV tanks and chimes, followed by thorough checkout and testing of the integrated sections.  And that's just to get it back to where B18 was.  After Cryo, there is engine installation, check, and testing before it rolls out to the Pad for static firing and then back to the production site for Static Firing instrumentation taken off and the FTS installed, among other items.

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/Blobifie/status/2001904835315273819

Blobifi
@Blobifie
Over the past few weeks/days, workers have been seemingly replacing the COPVs on Ship 39 as we've seen multiple COPVs be lifted and lowered from around Ship 39's payload bay.

It is speculated that this may be a result of B18's incident at masseys, or it could be something else.

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/WatchersTank/status/2002519637385490943

TankWatchers
@WatchersTank
🚨BOOSTER 19 ROLLOUT COMPLETE!
The last section of B19 just rolled out to the MegaBay, marking one of the fastest Booster rollouts ever in only 25 days from first section to completion. For comparison, B18 took 161 days to reach this stage. Insane progress at Starbase.

The red line marks the next step. The top half of the booster will be lifted, moved over, and placed on the completed lower half for welding. Outfitting follows, then rollout to Massey for Cryo testing.

Meanwhile, Ship 39 is ready to move to Massey overnight.

[catdlr]

Ship 39 moves tonight, and some initial ASU equipment staged at the Port of Brownsville will also be introduced at the ASU site.  Going in opposite directions to meet somewhere in the night.


https://x.com/TrackingTheSB/status/2002159874747015322

StarbaseTracking
@TrackingTheSB
Two new road delays have been posted.

Port of Brownsville to ASU
December 20 11:59 PM to December 21 4:00 AM

Production to Masseys
December 20 11:59 PM to December 21 4:00 AM

[AndrewM]

Ship 39 in Mega Bay 2 from "That's a GIGALOT of Steel" | SpaceX Starbase on December 17th.
https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkxy8JJYc9WAehtF6U8fF4-Ts4CUpJLLl84?si=k4ijW2vb388CQzOQ

Clips from "Merry Mechazilla And A Happy New Bay" | SpaceX Starbase on December 21st.

6:10 COPVs Removed From S39
6:44 COPVs Installed in S39
7:01 Barrel Lifted Into Mega Bay 2
7:10 Barrel Rolled Into Mega Bay 1
7:20 B19 Fwd Rolled Into Mega Bay 1
7:38 B19 Fwd 3 Section

https://twitter.com/CyberguruG8073/status/2002872884386242581?s=20 [Dec. 21]

Starship Hardware Diagram (2025-12-13 - 2025-12-21)

Bringing in New Diagrams!

The last section of Booster 19 (F3:4 / Forward 3) has rolled into Megabay 1

Ship 39 has also received its raceways

All hardware spotted with cameras from
@NASASpaceflight | http://starbase.live

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/2003591844559532194

NSF - NASASpaceflight.com
@NASASpaceflight

The Booster LOX landing tank installation stand has been moved into Mega Bay 1. This will be used to move the B19 CH4 tank over to be stacked atop the LOX tank, thus forming the fully stacked booster.

https://nsf.live/starbase

This will beat the time it took to stack B18 by a pretty large margin.

[catdlr]

NSF Article:

Flight 12 vehicles readying for 2026 opener
written by Alejandro Alcantarilla Romera and Chris Bergin December 23, 2025

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/TrackingTheSB/status/2003648474668032365

StarbaseTracking
@TrackingTheSB
·
The Liquid Oxygen header tank installation stand has left Megabay 1.

It was rolled into the bay earlier and likely facilitated the joining of Booster 19's LOX and CH4 tanks.

It is likely Booster 19 is now fully stacked.

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/2003871611733295480

quote]SpaceX
@SpaceX
Stack complete[/quote]

[catdlr]

Merry Christmas


https://twitter.com/BoosterTribe/status/2003886558437683679

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/AshleyKillip/status/2004297656982819201

ChromeKiwi
@AshleyKillip

We can see on Booster 19 red protective covers are now being used on COPV's (composit overwrapped pressure vessels). With the loss of Starship 36 and more recently Booster 18 SpaceX has had to improve handling and installation of these tanks moving forward as any damage to them can result in loss of a vehicle if they are to explode. As a result we can see a new testing area has been created at Massey's for these specifically. The red covers are then removed before the chines are added.

[StraumliBlight]

Launch date is now NET April 5th according to the STA.

EDIT: Continuation of previous STA, not a replacement.

[sstli2]

Launch date is now NET April 5th according to the STA.

That is very surprising. I had thought early March was the base case. We all knew there was going to be a pause after Flight 11, but I figured Musk would be pushing them to accelerate the timeline. There was an Artemis refueling demo penciled in for June, after all.

[greybeardengineer]

That is very surprising. I had thought early March was the base case. We all knew there was going to be a pause after Flight 11, but I figured Musk would be pushing them to accelerate the timeline. There was an Artemis refueling demo penciled in for June, after all.

Perhaps related to the replacement of COPVs from Ship 39. Audit of flight hardware after B18 mishap revealed ongoing issues with materials handling, vehicle assembly, and QC/QA procedures. Large scale assessment, retraining, and possibly personnel changes takes time. Rooting out such deficiencies in Starbase now could trade a month or two to next flight for a lot smoother flow down the road that is overall much better for Artemis and eventually Mars.

[crandles57]

Launch date is now NET April 5th according to the STA.

That is very surprising. I had thought early March was the base case. We all knew there was going to be a pause after Flight 11, but I figured Musk would be pushing them to accelerate the timeline. There was an Artemis refueling demo penciled in for June, after all.

I am not at all surprised by the slip, but perhaps slightly surprised this had been 'admitted' so soon/before year end.

My earlier posted best est figures below suggest ~15weeks from roll out to Masseys for pressure and cryo tests which hasn't happened yet. 5 April would be slightly faster but there is no guarantee that 5 April won't slip some more so maybe I was being optimistic?

Booster 18 timeline

Finish B18.x test tank testing____________________1 week?_____________??
Finish stacking booster_________________________1 week?_____________2 weeks?
Further work pre pressure cryo tests______________1 week?_____________2 weeks?
Roll to Massey (& back),  pressure cryo tests________4 days?_____________1 week?
Further build add flaps engines___________________2 week?_____________4 weeks?
Roll to pad, Pad testing with booster_______________2 weeks?____________4 weeks?
Static fire____________________________________3 days?_____________1 week?
Final booster preps_____________________________2 weeks?____________3 weeks?
Roll to pad, stack ship and launch__________________1 week?____________2 weeks?

Total_________________________________________11 weeks?__________20+ weeks?


I feel like I am really on the low side for the minimum time estimates above so 11 weeks minimum time and more like 20+ weeks seems to make 2025 launch impossible and more like March 2026 or later? No doubt different people with different knowledge would put in different estimates. Is this miles off?

[catdlr]

Just when you think Ship 39 is all ready to go, scaffolding is going up around it,

https://twitter.com/HardcoreElectr1/status/2006160903289381371

Travis Sorensen
@HardcoreElectr1
·
Scaffolding around the next Starship!

[catdlr]

Here is a video of the above along with some equipment photbombing the scene

https://twitter.com/rocketjunkie94/status/2006225960236916845

Jake (Max-Q) 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿
@rocketjunkie94
A newly constructed stand,  affectionately named the "UFO Stand" by the community has been moved from the Sanchez Lot to Starfactory.

It's currently unclear exactly what this stand will be used for.

[TheKutKu]

Launch date is now NET April 5th according to the STA.

This is a renewal of the previous one that ends on April 4th (now why it was issued so early is beyond me), this implies less that the launch is NET April 5th and more so that SpaceX believes there's a possibility it could happen after April 4th and covers that just in case

[catdlr]

I hope this is not an indication of another replacement tiles endeavor. Maybe what's driving the NET on April 5th?

https://twitter.com/StarshipGazer/status/2006931217397199117

Starship Gazer
@StarshipGazer

Lots of new scaffolding around Starship 39 in megabay 2 tonight.

1/1/26

[OTV Booster]

I hope this is not an indication of another replacement tiles endeavor. Maybe what's driving the NET on April 5th?

Starship Gazer
@StarshipGazer

Lots of new scaffolding around Starship 39 in megabay 2 tonight.

1/1/26

That is what it looks like. The question is, why? What lessons may have been learned since the tiles were placed? For that matter, when were the tiles finished off?  I don't follow that close.

If SX has glommed onto a new and unexpected tile formulary would they hold up the ship 39 for 1-1.5 months to test it? If the process is picking up, ship 40 should be ready sometime in April. ISTM that putting a ship on the new OLM and wringing it out might be a higher priority than any flight lessons the next launch might give. Hmmmm.

Would stripping the tiles give any advantage if 12/39 became a dedicated OLM test fixture? The OLM does need a good test program, maybe up to and including a 3 second full up booster static fire to test the new flame trench.

Just trying to connect the dots.

mod edit: just trying to remove whitespace

[John Kerslake]

could it be protective covering while the booster is worked on and moved to the launch site?

[xcelr8]

I hope this is not an indication of another replacement tiles endeavor. Maybe what's driving the NET on April 5th?

Starship Gazer
@StarshipGazer

Lots of new scaffolding around Starship 39 in megabay 2 tonight.

1/1/26

As already noted, April 5 should not be considered a "No Earlier Than" date for Flight 12, should it? The previous STA was extended with a new end date, correct?

[catdlr]

TPS evaluations taking place at Starbase on next two Ships to fly
written by Alejandro Alcantarilla Romera and Chris Bergin January 7, 2026

[catdlr]

Work on the ship is resulting in this modification to the tiles.

https://twitter.com/INiallAnderson/status/2010362380186968225

Niall-Ian Anderson
@INiallAnderson
·
Tiles on 1 half of S39 have been modified /  The reason or purpose of these new features is unknown -

[envy887]

Is the modification the 3 white dots on each tile?

[catdlr]

Scaffolding all removed

https://twitter.com/HardcoreElectr1/status/2010714536576442680


https://twitter.com/HardcoreElectr1/status/2010706886425743422

[litton4]

I wish the scaffolding on my house from the solar panels would com down that quickly.....

[AndrewM]

"Scaffolding Assembled Around S39" from "Witness this Fully Armed Launch Tower" | SpaceX Starbase taken December 30th to January 3rd. [Jan. 7]

"Ship 39 in Mega Bay 2" and "Ship 39 Covered in Scaffolding" from "The Gigabay Steel Jungle Gym" | SpaceX Starbase taken January 7th and 9th. [Jan. 11]

[catdlr]

From today's Pete Hegseth's factory tour


https://x.com/Blobifie/status/2010916943814173048

Blobifi
@Blobifie
·
Not much to note, but a texas representative shared a photo showing Booster 19's aft section being worked on inside Megabay 1!

It seems there's still a bit of work left to be done on the booster before its able to roll out for cryogenic proof testing.

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/SecWar/status/2010944625813406074

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth

@SecWar
·
Starbase is a testament to the strength of American ingenuity and invention.

Keep going
@elonmusk

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/lewisknaggs42/status/2011107725393178960

Lewis Knaggs
@lewisknaggs42
·
New road closure Massey's to Production tomorrow night.

My best guess is it is the Booster Cryo Stand for B19.

[catdlr]

And here is what was moved, the static fire stand for Booster 19 (maybe)?

https://twitter.com/lifeatstagezero/status/2011454925893689585

[SpaceLizard]

And here is what was moved, the static fire stand for Booster 19 (maybe)?

Looks like a Ship stand to me.

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/RoughRidersShow/status/2013037453796323819

Rough Riders Show
@RoughRidersShow
Booster 19 here we come! The Cryostand is awaiting transport at the Masseys entrance

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/lifeatstagezero/status/2013153278763114873

Shaun Gisler
@lifeatstagezero
·
Not long ago at the intersection of Massy Way and the Highway "O" Death. This can only mean one thing. Or not. Some of my best pan and scan

https://twitter.com/HardcoreElectr1/status/2013155122973433924

Travis Sorensen
@HardcoreElectr1
Anyone ready for a Booster Cryo Test??

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/Blobifie/status/2013288407062258171

Blobifi
@Blobifie
Ship 39 has received its first aft flap!!

[AndrewM]

"Cybertrucks and Steel" | SpaceX Starbase [Jan. 15] Ship 39 clips from January 11th through 13th.

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/WatchersTank/status/2013759154435833956

TankWatchers
@WatchersTank
·
🚨SHIP 39 SECOND AFT FLAP!
Starbase teams just lifted Ship 39’s second aft flap, only one day after the first was installed. Flap installation is usually a strong sign that Starship testing is getting close.

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/wvmattz/status/2014158898630983750

MattZ
@wvmattz
·
We only saw it for a brief moment, but the PEZ loader rolled out of Starfactory, down Highway-4 and then made a right turn onto Remedios Ave.  It's likely headed for MB2 for load testing, which is exciting news for Ship 39!

@NASASpaceflight
 | http://nsf.live/starbase