SpaceX progress toward 25 Starship launches in 2025 (now 2026)

[meekGee]

Gwynne Shotwell recently coined the "25 in '25" goal, and then predicted some 400 launched in 4 years, corresponding to a possible 25-50-100-200 progression.

I think both predictions call for a tracking thread, but I figured let's take it one year at a time.

2024 had 5 launches, from one pad, no reuse, and plenty of vehicle changes.

2025 is kicking off with a V2 ship that should be more stable, an improved FAA licensing process, rumors of booster reuse coming soon, and a second pad nearing completion.

So - possible?

Much needed source quote, thanks to AC in NC

https://payloadspace.com/spacex-leadership-map-out-the-future-of-the-starship-program/
https://news.satnews.com/2024/11/13/spacex-starship-to-fly-25-launches-in-2025/
https://www.youtube.com/live/zt8WrIAa2Ok

[wannamoonbase]

Gwynne Shotwell recently coined the "25 in '25" goal, and then predicted some 400 launched in 4 years, corresponding to a possible 25-50-100-200 progression.

I think both predictions call for a tracking thread, but I figured let's take it one year at a time.

2024 had 5 launches, from one pad, no reuse, and plenty of vehicle changes.

2025 is kicking off with a V2 ship that should be more stable, an improved FAA licensing process, rumors of booster reuse coming soon, and a second pad nearing completion.

So - possible?

I don't think it's possible for 2025 but will be more than that in 2026.

Reasons:
1) They are not ready to reuse boosters, that is the capability needed to support that flight rate.
2) They are not currently producing ships at the pace needed
3) They only have 1 operational pad and it needs to long to turn around.
4) Commodities will become a constraint with launches and the needed tests

I would look to the launch cadence at the end of 2025.  If they are launching every 2 weeks in December 2025 that would be massive.

If by the end of 2025 Pad B has done a few launches and LC39A can support a full stack then it's a highly successful year.

All that rambling said, I think if they have a total of 12 to 15 flights in 2025 it's a wildly successful year. 

[DanClemmensen]

I think 25 is far too aggressive, but I could see a ramp up from one launch in January to four launches  in December from BC.

On a slightly different note: In 2025, will SpaceX launch more Starship than ULA launches Vulcan+Atlas?

[wannamoonbase]

I think 25 is far too aggressive, but I could see a ramp up from one launch in January to four launches  in December from BC.

On a slightly different note: In 2025, will SpaceX launch more Starship than ULA launches Vulcan+Atlas?

Likely more Starship launches than Vulcan and NG combined.

[DanClemmensen]

I think 25 is far too aggressive, but I could see a ramp up from one launch in January to four launches  in December from BC.

On a slightly different note: In 2025, will SpaceX launch more Starship than ULA launches Vulcan+Atlas?

Likely more Starship launches than Vulcan and NG combined.

I picked ULA (Vulcan+Atlas) because Tory announced they will reach a cadence of 20/yr by the end of 2025. That's in the same range as Starship. Frankly, I think it would be a roughly even race if we made it Vulcan+Atlas+NG.

[uhuznaa]

Once they have two pads and manage to reuse boosters, they may get to launch every two weeks but not earlier.

There's also actually very little point to that until they can launch and deploy payloads.

[alugobi]

Better hope they don't muff a catch.

[wannamoonbase]

Once they have two pads and manage to reuse boosters, they may get to launch every two weeks but not earlier.

There's also actually very little point to that until they can launch and deploy payloads.

Bingo.

They need more than 1 pad.  What I don't see discussed is Pad A in order to accommodate the taller V3 booster and ship it seems that Pad A will need to have it's OLM revised to the lower profile of Pad B.  But perhaps they don't do that until they have 1 or more functioning in Florida.

Also agree, that they won't just fly to fly unless they have valid things to test or payloads to deploy.  Although I suspect they are dying to start launching Starlinks on Starship.

[meekGee]

I don't think it's possible for 2025 but will be more than that in 2026.

Reasons:
1) They are not ready to reuse boosters, that is the capability needed to support that flight rate.
2) They are not currently producing ships at the pace needed
3) They only have 1 operational pad and it needs to long to turn around.
4) Commodities will become a constraint with launches and the needed tests

I would look to the launch cadence at the end of 2025.  If they are launching every 2 weeks in December 2025 that would be massive.

If by the end of 2025 Pad B has done a few launches and LC39A can support a full stack then it's a highly successful year.

All that rambling said, I think if they have a total of 12 to 15 flights in 2025 it's a wildly successful year.

I actually think booster reuse is right here, and some rumors agree

I'll bet this year is going to use a fleet of 4-6 boosters, since it won't be "catch and release" just yet.

I think they'll catch ships but not reuse, at least not in a way that will significantly affect the numbers.

But!  If they're not building boosters, then building 25 ships is not so daunting - same math as with Falcon.

The first few months will be about 1/month but something like 4x1, 4x2, 4x4 will get them there.

[lykos]

For now they have to wait for flight license for flight 8, if there are significant changes in the flight profile (orbital, ship catch...). So when IFT-7 in January, maybe IFT-8 in April?
And only if there is no mishap in flight 8 there will be more than 2 flights in H1.

[AmigaClone]

I suspect that 25 in '25 is a stretch due to some things that have not yet been resolved.

First of all, to launch 25 times, the FAA would need to issue a definite version of their revised Environmental Assessment including the Starship V3 performance. A new launch license based on the 2025 EA would likely also need to be issued. FT-8 and possibly even 9 could be done with the license issued for 7.

Internally, there would be the need to complete OLM-B, and possibly the OLM at LC-39A.
Some other milestones would be first time catching a ship, and the first time both the booster and ship would need to occur fairly early in the year for SpaceX's chances of 25 Starship launches in '25 to be even remotely possible.

My prediction is that SpaceX likely would be able to launch five times or more between 1 November 2025 and 31 December 2025. The rate at the end of the year would not be enough to reach the 25 launch mark yet.

My second prediction is that SpaceX would have the same or more orbital launches of Starship as Vulcan or New Glenn. There is a chance that it would be more orbital launches than the two of them together, but that is not a certainty.

[meekGee]

One indicator of planned reuse (and thus progress towards 25 in '25) is a divergence between the number of ships being built and the number of boosters.

Since the fabrication line is several months long, this will be a very nice advanced indicator.

Where do we stand today?

[Slarty1080]

As so often happens in tight situations the plan becomes the shortest possible time that has a no zero probability of actually working.

[JCopernicus]

Is there a source for this 25 for 25 quote?

[AC in NC]

Is there a source for this 25 for 25 quote?

https://payloadspace.com/spacex-leadership-map-out-the-future-of-the-starship-program/
https://news.satnews.com/2024/11/13/spacex-starship-to-fly-25-launches-in-2025/
https://www.youtube.com/live/zt8WrIAa2Ok

[JCopernicus]

Is there a source for this 25 for 25 quote?

https://payloadspace.com/spacex-leadership-map-out-the-future-of-the-starship-program/
https://news.satnews.com/2024/11/13/spacex-starship-to-fly-25-launches-in-2025/
https://www.youtube.com/live/zt8WrIAa2Ok

Thank you.

e: timestamp:



It's not her that said 25 in 25. she said

I mean Elon would say next year he would love to have us have 25 missions a year

So musk timelines, not spacex timelines.

[steveleach]

These threads normally end with "they didn't quite make it, but it was still incredibly impressive".

[wannamoonbase]

These threads normally end with "they didn't quite make it, but it was still incredibly impressive".

Yeah, that's how EM typically rolls. 

Seeing something as big and as complex as SS/SH fly even once a month would be amazing.  Catching boosters and ships, reuse and on orbit propellant transfer will be bananas.

We should see some HLS hardware in the wild in 2025 as well.

[Vanspace]

Maybe its the sugar plum fairies talking but 25 in 25 seems plausible.

The FAA is on track to grant the Fonsi in early 2025 and do not look to be causing delays other than for mishaps. Since this is a daydream, because of no mishaps in 2025 the FAA will not be a factor.

The ships and boosters are lined up. Booster 14 ready, 15 cryo tested, 16 stacking. Ship 33 ready, 34 cryo, 35 stacking. plus a couple more nose cones. Finishing one ship per month in 2025 should be enough with reuse but StarFactory was designed for 8 per month. It seems really unlikely that it would achieve less than 12% of capacity after a full year of operation.

Pad A has demonstrated a cadence of one month between launches.

If Nothing Goes Wrong

Jan B14 S33  B14 Caught
Feb B15 S34  Both Caught S34 retired
Mar B16 S35 Both Caught
April B14 S36 Both Caught making B14 the First to be reused.
May B15 S35 Both Caught making S35 the First to be reused.

From June to December Pad Cycle time drops to 3 weeks. That allows as many as 9 more launches on Pad A. Bringing the total for pad A to 14.

Pad B Launches in June. Because BV2 is more powerful, Pad B will focus on Tanker Flights. One month pad reset the first time dropping to 2 weeks by the end of the year. One flight in Jul, Aug, and Sep. 2 each in Oct Nov and Dec. A total of 9 Flights in 2025 from Pad B.

So that makes 25 flights from both pads in 2025. Other than the FAA everything that could prevent 25 in 25 is within SpaceX's control and well within their stated design goals. Can they run the pads that fast?, Can they build that fast? Can they fly without losing any ships or boosters? It appears that all of the pieces are in place, it is just up to the team to execute it.

[steveleach]

Presumably SpaceX didn't pluck the 25 figure from thin air, so they must have some sort of plan for getting there, even if it is an optimistic one.

For the sake of having something to track against that isn't just "2.08 launches per month", I'm going to use this...