15t crew module, 7t deployable payload
Quote from: TheRadicalModerate on 11/26/2022 01:57 am15t crew module, 7t deployable payloadThat's gonna look really weird with a giant almost-entirely-empty space ship.Besides the bad optics, the shockingly small dry-mass-to-useful-payload ratio suggests strongly that it will be more efficient (as measured by launch mass per payload mass) to send more payload per vehicle.To illustrate what I mean, take the extreme example: if only 1% of your landed mass were payload, then you could double your payload for only a ~1% increase in launch mass.
Quote from: OTV Booster on 11/25/2022 02:06 amRemind me. With all the variations discussed, I've lost track. If they do the big tanks and VLEO, how far can they get? Refuel on lunar orbit before or after landing? Which lunar orbit?If I assume a 95t dry LSS, 15t crew module, 7t deployable payload, and Isp=368s (with at least two R2SL's running), a 1500t LSS can just do VLEO-NRHOviaBLT-100dayLoiter-crewXfer-LS-10dayMission-NRHO-crewXfer.That also assumes 150kg/day boiloff in NRHO, and 500kg/day boiloff on the lunar surface near the poles, and 2% delta-v FPR for all crewed segments.The mission actually doesn't close if you do fast transit to NRHO.You can easily do a mission with 1200t tanks if you're willing to refuel both in LEO and something like an LEO+2000m/s HEEO. But AFAICT, that's not the plan.
Remind me. With all the variations discussed, I've lost track. If they do the big tanks and VLEO, how far can they get? Refuel on lunar orbit before or after landing? Which lunar orbit?
AFAICT, your 1500t LSS isn't the plan, either.
Quote from: TheRadicalModerate on 11/26/2022 01:57 amQuote from: OTV Booster on 11/25/2022 02:06 amRemind me. With all the variations discussed, I've lost track. If they do the big tanks and VLEO, how far can they get? Refuel on lunar orbit before or after landing? Which lunar orbit?If I assume a 95t dry LSS, 15t crew module, 7t deployable payload, and Isp=368s (with at least two R2SL's running), a 1500t LSS can just do VLEO-NRHOviaBLT-100dayLoiter-crewXfer-LS-10dayMission-NRHO-crewXfer.That also assumes 150kg/day boiloff in NRHO, and 500kg/day boiloff on the lunar surface near the poles, and 2% delta-v FPR for all crewed segments.The mission actually doesn't close if you do fast transit to NRHO.You can easily do a mission with 1200t tanks if you're willing to refuel both in LEO and something like an LEO+2000m/s HEEO. But AFAICT, that's not the plan.IOW, it works if all the gods smile. Tight.
Quote from: Twark_Main on 11/26/2022 10:51 amQuote from: TheRadicalModerate on 11/26/2022 01:57 am15t crew module, 7t deployable payloadThat's gonna look really weird with a giant almost-entirely-empty space ship.Besides the bad optics, the shockingly small dry-mass-to-useful-payload ratio suggests strongly that it will be more efficient (as measured by launch mass per payload mass) to send more payload per vehicle.To illustrate what I mean, take the extreme example: if only 1% of your landed mass were payload, then you could double your payload for only a ~1% increase in launch mass.Four things:1) It can look however it wants but it more than satisfies the Option A and B requirements, which are what LSS is intended to satisfy.2) You can make it land heavy stuff easily if you're willing to do more than one refueling. We've had that discussion up-thread. I'm still assuming that minimization of conops complexity is a big deal for NASA.
3) I'll note that "a giant almost-entirely-empty space ship" is a pretty good description of any spacecraft that's designed to hold humans for anything other than a few days.
If you have almost the entire ogive for pressurized crew spaces, it's actually easier for them to get down to the cargo deck (where the elevator is) if the cylindrical portion of the payload bay is only a couple of meters high instead of 8m.
Quote from: TheRadicalModerate on 11/26/2022 07:44 pmFour things:1) It can look however it wants but it more than satisfies the Option A and B requirements, which are what LSS is intended to satisfy.2) You can make it land heavy stuff easily if you're willing to do more than one refueling. We've had that discussion up-thread. I'm still assuming that minimization of conops complexity is a big deal for NASA.How silly of me. I forgot this is a flags-and-footprints program, not a cost-per-kilogram program.
Four things:1) It can look however it wants but it more than satisfies the Option A and B requirements, which are what LSS is intended to satisfy.2) You can make it land heavy stuff easily if you're willing to do more than one refueling. We've had that discussion up-thread. I'm still assuming that minimization of conops complexity is a big deal for NASA.
Quote from: Twark_Main on 11/30/2022 04:16 amQuote from: TheRadicalModerate on 11/26/2022 07:44 pmFour things:1) It can look however it wants but it more than satisfies the Option A and B requirements, which are what LSS is intended to satisfy.2) You can make it land heavy stuff easily if you're willing to do more than one refueling. We've had that discussion up-thread. I'm still assuming that minimization of conops complexity is a big deal for NASA.How silly of me. I forgot this is a flags-and-footprints program, not a cost-per-kilogram program.So you quote both the point that it satisfies Option A/B and the one that says that you can make it as heavy as you want with a bit of extra complexity,¹ but your response is that it's only good for flags and footprints?___________¹Or not: You can use an expendable LSS and land as much heavy stuff as you want via CLPS or HDL. And unless tanker flights are priced at well under $10M, it's actually cheaper than trying to reuse a cargo Starship.
Can someone write a succinct summary of Options A and B or else post a link to one? I hunted and hunted, but the most I could find was that Option A is pretty much what I already think of as HLS while option B is "the same thing, but sustainable."
I believe that the Starship provided for Artemis III will not comply with all the requirements for Option B. I think SpaceX (and NASA) will view that Starship as a kind of prototype to learn what works well and what works less good. And since they will then plan on throwing away that ship anyway, they will not spend money and effort on outfitting it with features not needed for that first landing. In particular, I suspect dealing with the lunar night, the extra Δv needed for global access, and procedures for refilling of propellant in NRHO (so the ship can be reused) will not be developed and ready for Artemis III. (But this depends on how late Artemis III will be compared to how late Starship will be.)
Quote from: Greg Hullender on 12/04/2022 03:03 pmCan someone write a succinct summary of Options A and B or else post a link to one? I hunted and hunted, but the most I could find was that Option A is pretty much what I already think of as HLS while option B is "the same thing, but sustainable."Attached is the requirements document from the RFP; this is a slightly newer version than the one you find at sam.gov that Dan Clemmensen pointed to. Chapter 4 is the interresting stuff, with 4.2 containing the higher requirements for the sustained phase (i.e, for Option B).As Dan mentioned, Option B requires transport of four crew, a bit more mass both up and down, and longer stays on the surface. But also:• Be able to dock to the Lunar Gateway (for Option A, providers could chose if they wanted to be able to dock to Orion or to Gateway).• Be able to reach anywhere on the Moon, not just between 84°S and 90°S (this requires more Δv).• Survive continous darkness for at least 50 hours (with a goal of up to 191 hours).• Support longer EVA excursions.But on the flip side, for the longer stays and when carrying four crew, the provider can assume that there will be a separate habitat waiting on the surface, so the lander does not need to be the habitat for the entire stay."Sustainability" here is not just about costs, but also about being more capable. And also, as the requirements document says, "Beyond the initial HLS missions, the HLS will support sustainable presence on the Moon by providing a regular cadence of reliable transportation services for humans and cargo".I believe that the Starship provided for Artemis III will not comply with all the requirements for Option B. I think SpaceX (and NASA) will view that Starship as a kind of prototype to learn what works well and what works less good. And since they will then plan on throwing away that ship anyway, they will not spend money and effort on outfitting it with features not needed for that first landing. In particular, I suspect dealing with the lunar night, the extra Δv needed for global access, and procedures for refilling of propellant in NRHO (so the ship can be reused) will not be developed and ready for Artemis III. (But this depends on how late Artemis III will be compared to how late Starship will be.)
One obvious missing capability to turn the Option A LSS into Option B is the ability to refuel in cislunar, which is how the LSS becomes reusable.
Quote from: TheRadicalModerate on 12/05/2022 12:35 amOne obvious missing capability to turn the Option A LSS into Option B is the ability to refuel in cislunar, which is how the LSS becomes reusable. Don't they also need some way to inspect/test the vehicle before reuse? That seems to me to be the biggest missing piece--although it provides a great reason to have a crew at Gateway. :-)
Quote from: Greg Hullender on 12/05/2022 05:10 pmQuote from: TheRadicalModerate on 12/05/2022 12:35 amOne obvious missing capability to turn the Option A LSS into Option B is the ability to refuel in cislunar, which is how the LSS becomes reusable. Don't they also need some way to inspect/test the vehicle before reuse? That seems to me to be the biggest missing piece--although it provides a great reason to have a crew at Gateway. :-)There is no hard requirement in Option B for reuse of the HLS lander. The requirement is for "sustainable" access to the moon, meaning (more or less) one or more times a year for not too much money. The original NASA reference lander has three elements: transit, descent, and ascent, and only the ascent element was reusable in its Option B. The Starship HLS system has three elements: Depot, Tanker, and HLS. The tanker and Depot are reusable and the HLS is not very expensive, so even if it is expended the system still meets the sustainability requirement. It is probably cheaper to expend it than to refuel it, but the big problems for reuse are reprovisioning and loading new large cargo. Provisioning and cargo are easy to load on a new HLS on Earth, much harder to transfer in space (cislunar, LEO, or other).HLS is "not very expensive" because much of it is built from standard Starship parts in a high-production SpaceX factory.Starship HLS also increases sustainability by eliminating most separate cargo missions. Cargo missions have generally been assumed to be one-way anyway.It might make sense to reuse Starship HLS if SLS/Orion is retired and HLS conveys the crew from LEO to the Lunar surface and back.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 12/05/2022 05:43 pmQuote from: Greg Hullender on 12/05/2022 05:10 pmQuote from: TheRadicalModerate on 12/05/2022 12:35 amOne obvious missing capability to turn the Option A LSS into Option B is the ability to refuel in cislunar, which is how the LSS becomes reusable. Don't they also need some way to inspect/test the vehicle before reuse? That seems to me to be the biggest missing piece--although it provides a great reason to have a crew at Gateway. :-)There is no hard requirement in Option B for reuse of the HLS lander. The requirement is for "sustainable" access to the moon, meaning (more or less) one or more times a year for not too much money. The original NASA reference lander has three elements: transit, descent, and ascent, and only the ascent element was reusable in its Option B. The Starship HLS system has three elements: Depot, Tanker, and HLS. The tanker and Depot are reusable and the HLS is not very expensive, so even if it is expended the system still meets the sustainability requirement. It is probably cheaper to expend it than to refuel it, but the big problems for reuse are reprovisioning and loading new large cargo. Provisioning and cargo are easy to load on a new HLS on Earth, much harder to transfer in space (cislunar, LEO, or other).HLS is "not very expensive" because much of it is built from standard Starship parts in a high-production SpaceX factory.Starship HLS also increases sustainability by eliminating most separate cargo missions. Cargo missions have generally been assumed to be one-way anyway.It might make sense to reuse Starship HLS if SLS/Orion is retired and HLS conveys the crew from LEO to the Lunar surface and back.The cost of the LSS is the crew habitat and other LSS crew related addons to the basic SS. A basic SS hardware may be easily as low as $50M. But an LSS hardware is likely to run at greater than $150M. NOTE here is that a depot and a BEO tanker would be at the close to a basic SS costs. Thus such to use an LSS at least 3 times will gain significant savings overall for surface missions of $50 to >$100M on each mission. Which can say a lot about a stripped down oneway cargo hardware to cost ~$75M for the cargo SS that delivers about 75 to 100t of cargo to the surface.Even using a throw away tanker vs a Lunar Depot you would still save money by just reusing the LSS 3 to 5 times. You could even refuel the LSS for return to LEO so it could be loaded for next mission and still save money. Such that initially only Tankers are thrown away until its possible to return EDL the Tanker from Lunar orbit. Once that happens an additional ~$50M is saved per mission.
Quote from: Greg Hullender on 12/05/2022 05:10 pmQuote from: TheRadicalModerate on 12/05/2022 12:35 amOne obvious missing capability to turn the Option A LSS into Option B is the ability to refuel in cislunar, which is how the LSS becomes reusable. Don't they also need some way to inspect/test the vehicle before reuse? That seems to me to be the biggest missing piece--although it provides a great reason to have a crew at Gateway. :-)There is no hard requirement in Option B for reuse of the HLS lander. The requirement is for "sustainable" access to the moon, meaning (more or less) one or more times a year for not too much money. The original NASA reference lander has three elements: transit, descent, and ascent, and only the ascent element was reusable in its Option B. The Starship HLS system has three elements: Depot, Tanker, and HLS. The tanker and Depot are reusable and the HLS is not very expensive, so even if it is expended the system still meets the sustainability requirement.
HLS is "not very expensive" because much of it is built from standard Starship parts in a high-production SpaceX factory.
Starship HLS also increases sustainability by eliminating most separate cargo missions. Cargo missions have generally been assumed to be one-way anyway.
It might make sense to reuse Starship HLS if SLS/Orion is retired and HLS conveys the crew from LEO to the Lunar surface and back.