Author Topic: SLS + BFR Tag-Team Mars Mission?  (Read 14467 times)

Offline Markstark

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SLS + BFR Tag-Team Mars Mission?
« on: 08/06/2018 09:55 pm »
The last paragraph in this latest Eric Berger article got me thinking.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/08/spacex-organizes-inaugural-conference-to-plan-landings-on-mars/?amp=1&__twitter_impression=true

Quote
Both NASA, with public money, and SpaceX, through private investment, are developing very large rockets that will enable humans to fly into deep space. Both NASA and SpaceX ultimately want to send humans to Mars. A workshop like this could ultimately plant seeds that result in collaboration rather than competition in the years to come. That seems especially possible given the Trump administration's stated desire for NASA to work closely with commercial space companies like SpaceX and its innovative technologies, such as reusable launch vehicles.

I’m not sure if this scenario has been discussed here before but a joint BFR + SLS Mars mission in the late 2020s seems like a likely scenario to me. I don’t see SLS going away for at least another decade. And I don’t see anything that would deter SpaceX from building the BFR at some point. I also don’t believe NASA leadership will be able to ignore BFR for very long. So an architecture that uses both seems pragmatic to me. Heck, I can see New Glenn and Vulcan playing a role too.

I recognize that the SpaceX Mars architecture doesn’t require other rockets. Just needs a booster, ship and a tanker. But that doesn’t have to be the final architecture especially if NASA comes with money in hand for one that includes its rocket (SLS).

Thoughts? Assuming I’m correct, what’s the best way to use this combo?

Edit: I’m not trying to compare the two rockets. That’s been done a thousand times before in other threads.
« Last Edit: 08/06/2018 10:18 pm by Markstark »

Offline speedevil

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Re: SLS + BFR Tag-Team Mars Mission?
« Reply #1 on: 08/06/2018 10:02 pm »
If you have an operating BFS, which can be refuelled in orbit, you would have to be utterly insane to have anything to do with SLS on the same mission.

At best it will launch a comparable payload to low earth orbit, for the least a dozen times more cash.

With refuelling in orbit, you can throw several thousand tons of payload at Mars for the same price as one SLS launch.
You can, if crew is not possible to launch on SLS, launch them on dragon.

BFS would have to fail very, very badly in capability - to the point where it is little better than F9, or reusability/reliability to the point where it is worse than F9 block 5 for this to make sense.
« Last Edit: 08/06/2018 10:04 pm by speedevil »

Offline Markstark

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SLS + BFR Tag-Team Mars Mission?
« Reply #2 on: 08/06/2018 10:14 pm »
If you have an operating BFS, which can be refuelled in orbit, you would have to be utterly insane to have anything to do with SLS on the same mission.

At best it will launch a comparable payload to low earth orbit, for the least a dozen times more cash.

With refuelling in orbit, you can throw several thousand tons of payload at Mars for the same price as one SLS launch.
You can, if crew is not possible to launch on SLS, launch them on dragon.

BFS would have to fail very, very badly in capability - to the point where it is little better than F9, or reusability/reliability to the point where it is worse than F9 block 5 for this to make sense.

I recognize that SLS is not required in the BFR/BFS Mars architecture. I recognize that SLS is fully expendable and much much more expensive. All true. But I still don’t see it going away any time soon. 

My “what-if” above is not about whether using both is the best way to do it. I’m just speculating that it’s a likely scenario based on my belief that neither NASA and SpaceX are going to go at it alone and both BFR and SLS will be around in the 2020s.
« Last Edit: 08/06/2018 10:28 pm by Markstark »

Offline speedevil

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Re: SLS + BFR Tag-Team Mars Mission?
« Reply #3 on: 08/06/2018 10:18 pm »

My “what-if” above is not about whether using both is the best way to do it. I’m just speculating that it’s a likely scenario based on my belief that neither NASA and SpaceX are going to go at it alone and both BFR and SLS will be around in then 2020s.
Perhaps the least insane option would be for NASA to specify now that they wish to purchase fuel in orbit, for use at TMI/MOI.
That would enable them to utilise whichever commercial vendor could supply that fuel and enable a much larger unitary capsule.

Offline jbenton

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Re: SLS + BFR Tag-Team Mars Mission?
« Reply #4 on: 08/06/2018 10:30 pm »
Actually, I could see some overlap between the two rockets, at least until New Armstrong rolls around, just to keep two or more contracting teams competing (SLS can be thought of as a NASA-government rocket, but it could also be considered a United Space Alliance rocket; USA was a joint-venture between the Shuttle contractors and all the same contractors are working on SLS, under NASA direction). Consider Commercial Crew and Cargo: they didn't downselect just because one option was cheaper than the other. the Cygnus was more expensive than the Dragon, but they wanted to keep both to check and balance each other and to have redundancy. For CRS-2, NASA even added a new contractor without removing either of the previous contenders. Cygnus is now 15% cheaper than in CRS-1, and Dragon is 50% more expensive. Likewise, Dragon is cheaper than Starliner, but they're keeping both. They know better than to allow a monopoly, if it may be cheaper in the short term, it'll be more expensive in the long term. 

Also, the two do have somewhat divergent capabilities; in this article - which is pro-SpaceX - the author notes that SLS has a fairing better sized for some large payloads, such as large mirrored telescopes (it's not a showstopper for BFS/BFR, just the mirror would need to fold more than for SLS):

https://www.teslarati.com/nasa-spacex-bfr-study-space-telescope-luvoir/

I could definitely see both flying together at least for a short time.

Offline RonM

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Re: SLS + BFR Tag-Team Mars Mission?
« Reply #5 on: 08/06/2018 10:54 pm »
Let's look at the proposed missions for SLS and BFR and compare their capabilities. Not internet fantasies of how they can be redesigned (although, that is fun).

SLS will be able to send about 30 to 40 tons of payload towards Mars. FH (expendable) can send 16.8 tons of payload to Mars, but for sake of argument we'll assume NASA wants to use SLS.

BFS will be able to land 150 tons on Mars.

BFS looks like the obvious winner, but only if the destination is landing on Mars.

SLS can send a payload including the rockets needed to put the payload in Mars orbit.

So, a theoretical use of SLS would be NASA conducting a large mission in Mars orbit (say, exploring Phobos and Deimos). They would launch the uncrewed mission package to Mars orbit. Once in place, a BFS from the surface of Mars could launch with with the crew of the orbital mission and drop them off at the NASA vehicle. Then the BFS lands and can go back up to get the astros when they are done. BFS being used as a "Mars Uber" for the crew.

Offline redliox

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Re: SLS + BFR Tag-Team Mars Mission?
« Reply #6 on: 08/06/2018 11:12 pm »
Let's look at the proposed missions for SLS and BFR and compare their capabilities. Not internet fantasies of how they can be redesigned (although, that is fun).

SLS will be able to send about 30 to 40 tons of payload towards Mars. FH (expendable) can send 16.8 tons of payload to Mars, but for sake of argument we'll assume NASA wants to use SLS.

BFS will be able to land 150 tons on Mars.

BFS looks like the obvious winner, but only if the destination is landing on Mars.

SLS can send a payload including the rockets needed to put the payload in Mars orbit.

So, a theoretical use of SLS would be NASA conducting a large mission in Mars orbit (say, exploring Phobos and Deimos). They would launch the uncrewed mission package to Mars orbit. Once in place, a BFS from the surface of Mars could launch with with the crew of the orbital mission and drop them off at the NASA vehicle. Then the BFS lands and can go back up to get the astros when they are done. BFS being used as a "Mars Uber" for the crew.

Sounds about right.  While inefficient, I could see NASA still attempting to hand a few habitats via SLS before a BFS lands, and the BFS using its cargo capability to greatly enhance the budding base.  Whatever the SLS can throw beforehand, whether orbital or surface assets, would be insurance for the crew.

I'd like to see NASA embrace both SLS+BFR rather than compete.  Assuming both materialize firstly and fly the tonnage intended, SLS would be the weaker element but the one with more political strings; you want Congress' support, you ensure at least one SLS flight utilized not to mention tone down ULA's/Boeing's/Lockheed's voice of complaint by utilizing something they built.

Regardless of which "is superior," frankly I expect delays on both the SpaceX and government sides resulting in them being online simultaneously.  The more HLVs the better!
"Let the trails lead where they may, I will follow."
-Tigatron

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: SLS + BFR Tag-Team Mars Mission?
« Reply #7 on: 08/06/2018 11:13 pm »
My “what-if” above is not about whether using both is the best way to do it. I’m just speculating that it’s a likely scenario based on my belief that neither NASA and SpaceX are going to go at it alone and both BFR and SLS will be around in the 2020s.

You have to remember that "NASA", the government agency that is made up of 17,000+ people across the country, does not get a vote on what it's goals are.

Unless the President of the United States of America (whom NASA works for) and/or the Congress of the United States of America decide that it is in the best interests of our nation to send significant "stuff" to Mars, it won't matter what NASA does or does not want. And for the most part the U.S. Government doesn't care what SpaceX does outside of the borders of the U.S. either.

So in order for Congress to provide funding for SLS launches that support activities on Mars, Congress first has to agree that there is a reason that merits the money.

There is no reason today that Congress would spend large amounts of money to use the SLS for supporting activities on Mars, so if anyone wants that to happen a reason needs to be found. And soon, since it could take NASA a decade or more to build Mars hardware - and the SLS may not be around in 10 years unless there is a need for it.

My $0.02
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline speedevil

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Re: SLS + BFR Tag-Team Mars Mission?
« Reply #8 on: 08/06/2018 11:15 pm »
BFS looks like the obvious winner, but only if the destination is landing on Mars.

SLS can send a payload including the rockets needed to put the payload in Mars orbit.
BFS can get somewhere north of 150 tons into Mars orbit and then land, with no modifications. (aerocapture, not entry).

It can drop around 30 tons onto (or around) both Phobos and Deimos, and land nominally, or a several ton payload on (or around) each and return to LEO through aerocapture.
« Last Edit: 08/06/2018 11:43 pm by speedevil »

Offline Markstark

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Re: SLS + BFR Tag-Team Mars Mission?
« Reply #9 on: 08/06/2018 11:26 pm »
My “what-if” above is not about whether using both is the best way to do it. I’m just speculating that it’s a likely scenario based on my belief that neither NASA and SpaceX are going to go at it alone and both BFR and SLS will be around in the 2020s.

You have to remember that "NASA", the government agency that is made up of 17,000+ people across the country, does not get a vote on what it's goals are.

Unless the President of the United States of America (whom NASA works for) and/or the Congress of the United States of America decide that it is in the best interests of our nation to send significant "stuff" to Mars, it won't matter what NASA does or does not want. And for the most part the U.S. Government doesn't care what SpaceX does outside of the borders of the U.S. either.

So in order for Congress to provide funding for SLS launches that support activities on Mars, Congress first has to agree that there is a reason that merits the money.

There is no reason today that Congress would spend large amounts of money to use the SLS for supporting activities on Mars, so if anyone wants that to happen a reason needs to be found. And soon, since it could take NASA a decade or more to build Mars hardware - and the SLS may not be around in 10 years unless there is a need for it.

My $0.02

You're right. I should have been more clear. I know that NASA doesn't control its destiny. I'm aware that NASA gets directed by congress in the form of budget appropriations and other laws signed by congress. My post above should've read something to the effect "I think it is likely that NASA will be directed by congress to develop an architecture that utilizes both SLS and BFR". I believe this will happen because the United States Government will not be able to ignore the BFR in a few years and therefore it'll direct NASA to use it in conjunction with SLS (because they won't want SLS cancelled either due to jobs in cetain states). Thanks for the reply Ron.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: SLS + BFR Tag-Team Mars Mission?
« Reply #10 on: 08/07/2018 02:01 am »
My post above should've read something to the effect "I think it is likely that NASA will be directed by congress to develop an architecture that utilizes both SLS and BFR". I believe this will happen because the United States Government will not be able to ignore the BFR in a few years and therefore it'll direct NASA to use it in conjunction with SLS (because they won't want SLS cancelled either due to jobs in cetain states).

We're all space nerds here, and for the most part we all LOVE to do "what if" type stuff.

However when it comes to the U.S. Government there has to be a "need" that can instigate and sustain large appropriations. To a certain extent Apollo, Shuttle and the ISS were all because of the Cold War, and Constellation was an emotional response to the Columbia Shuttle accident.

The SLS development today seems to be justified by jobs, though let's not debate that here. However there are no operational programs that require the SLS so far - none that have been fully funded by Congress. So it would be easy to end the SLS if Congress were to debate it in the open (unlikely for a few years).

You are suggesting that one "need" the U.S. Government may have is to somehow compete with SpaceX when their BFR becomes operational, and my opinion is that the U.S. Congress won't care about what SpaceX does. Mainly because the SLS is a government-only transportation system, and all payloads funded for it can be mandated to fly on it, so SpaceX won't be in competition with the SLS.

Conversely, the U.S. Government is unlikely to feel threatened by SpaceX going to Mars. Or at least not for a couple of decades, which is how long I think it will be before it will be easier to live on Mars.

However if our government did find a need, it would be quite a mismatch because:

- SpaceX can develop flight-ready hardware far faster than NASA can.

- The BFR will be far more capable than the SLS will be as far as how much cargo can be landed on Mars.

- From what many of us can tell, the SLS will cost A LOT to fly, just for the rocket. Not sure how sustainable that will be.

So NASA would certainly be a minority partner if they were to fly the SLS in conjunction with the BFR.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Markstark

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SLS + BFR Tag-Team Mars Mission?
« Reply #11 on: 08/07/2018 02:19 am »
My post above should've read something to the effect "I think it is likely that NASA will be directed by congress to develop an architecture that utilizes both SLS and BFR". I believe this will happen because the United States Government will not be able to ignore the BFR in a few years and therefore it'll direct NASA to use it in conjunction with SLS (because they won't want SLS cancelled either due to jobs in cetain states).

We're all space nerds here, and for the most part we all LOVE to do "what if" type stuff.

However when it comes to the U.S. Government there has to be a "need" that can instigate and sustain large appropriations. To a certain extent Apollo, Shuttle and the ISS were all because of the Cold War, and Constellation was an emotional response to the Columbia Shuttle accident.

The SLS development today seems to be justified by jobs, though let's not debate that here. However there are no operational programs that require the SLS so far - none that have been fully funded by Congress. So it would be easy to end the SLS if Congress were to debate it in the open (unlikely for a few years).

You are suggesting that one "need" the U.S. Government may have is to somehow compete with SpaceX when their BFR becomes operational, and my opinion is that the U.S. Congress won't care about what SpaceX does. Mainly because the SLS is a government-only transportation system, and all payloads funded for it can be mandated to fly on it, so SpaceX won't be in competition with the SLS.

Conversely, the U.S. Government is unlikely to feel threatened by SpaceX going to Mars. Or at least not for a couple of decades, which is how long I think it will be before it will be easier to live on Mars.

However if our government did find a need, it would be quite a mismatch because:

- SpaceX can develop flight-ready hardware far faster than NASA can.

- The BFR will be far more capable than the SLS will be as far as how much cargo can be landed on Mars.

- From what many of us can tell, the SLS will cost A LOT to fly, just for the rocket. Not sure how sustainable that will be.

So NASA would certainly be a minority partner if they were to fly the SLS in conjunction with the BFR.
Thanks for the thorough response Ron. I definitely can’t debate/refute any of the points you’re making because I believe they are all correct. The one thing that I’ll differ on is that I think this “what if” scenario is as valid as a prediction as all the “SLS will be cancelled after one mission” predictions. That’s just my opinion though.
« Last Edit: 08/07/2018 02:20 am by Markstark »

Offline UltraViolet9

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Re: SLS + BFR Tag-Team Mars Mission?
« Reply #12 on: 08/07/2018 03:36 am »

Even without SLS/Orion and ISS hoovering up the bulk of NASA's HSF dollars, it's difficult to see how NASA could afford regular deliveries of 150 tons of human space flight systems to Mars the way the agency has developed and continues to develop these systems.

Orion development is coming in around $20 billion for a 10-ton capsule.  That's $2 billion per ton or $300 billion to fill a BFS to the surface of Mars.  The entire HSF budget is about $9 billion per year.  So, even if everything else was zeroed out, it would take NASA over 30 years to fill one BFS the way it currently develops HSF systems like Orion.

Things haven't always been so bad, but they were never all that good, either.  ISS development came in around $60 billion for about 165 tons of US space station elements.  That's $360 million per ton or $54 billion to fill a BFS to the surface of Mars.  Again, the entire HSF budget is about $9 billion per year.  So, even if everything else was zeroed out, it would take NASA six years to fill one BFS the way it used to develop HSF systems.

And these are unrealistic scenarios where NASA's entire HSF budget is dedicated to payloads for one BFS mission to the surface of Mars every six to 30 years.  Realistically, only a fraction of that budget will be available for these Mars payloads -- this Administration also wants to go to the Moon and retain something commercial in LEO, for example -- further stretching out the timeline.  Add in some nuclear power sources, orbital elements, launch, operations, etc. and things really go out the window.  You're quickly looking at one mission every decade to half-century.

With the exception of COTS (which isn't really an exploration program), the agency priced itself out of realistic human space exploration strategies decades ago and continues to do so.

Killing SLS and shifting to a future BFR isn't enough.  If NASA wants to afford a robust or even practical human space exploration program, the agency has to make fundamental changes in how it does everything in human space flight.

« Last Edit: 08/07/2018 03:51 am by UltraViolet9 »

Offline RonM

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Re: SLS + BFR Tag-Team Mars Mission?
« Reply #13 on: 08/07/2018 03:41 am »
BFS looks like the obvious winner, but only if the destination is landing on Mars.

SLS can send a payload including the rockets needed to put the payload in Mars orbit.
BFS can get somewhere north of 150 tons into Mars orbit and then land, with no modifications. (aerocapture, not entry).

It can drop around 30 tons onto (or around) both Phobos and Deimos, and land nominally, or a several ton payload on (or around) each and return to LEO through aerocapture.

1) No one has ever done aerocapture to orbit.

2) SpaceX has never said aerocapture was an option.

3) The safer method for SpaceX doing the mission would be to land at the Mars outpost first, refuel, and then launch to Mars orbit.

4) You're going against the spirit of this thread. The idea is to come up with missions that would use both BFR and SLS. Of course, it may turn out that there isn't a good combo mission, but at least give it a try.

Killing SLS isn't enough.  If NASA wants to afford a robust or even practical human space exploration program, the agency has to make fundamental changes in how it does everything in human space flight.

Do we have to have posts like this in every thread?  ::)

Offline envy887

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Re: SLS + BFR Tag-Team Mars Mission?
« Reply #14 on: 08/07/2018 04:08 am »
Do we have to have posts like this in every thread?
You mean ones with obvious facts?

Offline UltraViolet9

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Re: SLS + BFR Tag-Team Mars Mission?
« Reply #15 on: 08/07/2018 04:10 am »
The idea is to come up with missions that would use both BFR and SLS.

It's fine to fantasize, but the way the agency does business, NASA can't make use of BFR, forget BFR and SLS.

Quote
Do we have to have posts like this in every thread?  ::)

Setting aside the repetitive launcher arguments elsewhere, I have not seen another post about the costs of NASA's other HSF systems.  (Although I'm sure one is buried somewhere.)

Cost and budgetary realities suck but that doesn't mean they should be ignored, either.

« Last Edit: 08/07/2018 04:18 am by UltraViolet9 »

Offline envy887

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Re: SLS + BFR Tag-Team Mars Mission?
« Reply #16 on: 08/07/2018 04:15 am »

My “what-if” above is not about whether using both is the best way to do it. I’m just speculating that it’s a likely scenario based on my belief that neither NASA and SpaceX are going to go at it alone and both BFR and SLS will be around in then 2020s.
Perhaps the least insane option would be for NASA to specify now that they wish to purchase fuel in orbit, for use at TMI/MOI.
That would enable them to utilise whichever commercial vendor could supply that fuel and enable a much larger unitary capsule.

It might make more sense for NASA to put crew on Orion and use it to launch and return crew, meeting up with BFS in cis-lunar space. It's safer if they don't trust BFS with the launch and landing of crew on Earth. On Mars, they don't have much choice, as they aren't about to develop a lander or MAV.

NASA is unlikely to develop any kind of refueling, lander, large hab, or anything beyond SLS and Orion in the next 15 years. What they have is basically a cis-lunar taxi, and that's about all they can contribute to the transport side of things with SLS.
« Last Edit: 08/07/2018 04:29 am by envy887 »

Offline RonM

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Re: SLS + BFR Tag-Team Mars Mission?
« Reply #17 on: 08/07/2018 04:23 am »
Do we have to have posts like this in every thread?
You mean ones with obvious facts?

The idea is to come up with missions that would use both BFR and SLS.

It's fine to fantasize, but the way the agency does business, NASA can't make use of BFR, forget BFR and SLS.

Quote
Do we have to have posts like this in every thread?  ::)

Setting aside the repetitive launcher arguments, I have not seen a post about the costs of NASA's other HSF systems.  (Although I'm sure some are buried somewhere.)

Cost and budgetary realities suck but that doesn't mean they should be ignored, either.

C'mon, guys, it's time for you to get real. SLS is a bad idea, but Congress is continuing to fund it. Your complaining about SLS and HSF funding on an internet forum doesn't change a thing. If you're that passionate about it, write your Congressman.

Offline envy887

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Re: SLS + BFR Tag-Team Mars Mission?
« Reply #18 on: 08/07/2018 04:31 am »
Do we have to have posts like this in every thread?
You mean ones with obvious facts?

The idea is to come up with missions that would use both BFR and SLS.

It's fine to fantasize, but the way the agency does business, NASA can't make use of BFR, forget BFR and SLS.

Quote
Do we have to have posts like this in every thread?  ::)

Setting aside the repetitive launcher arguments, I have not seen a post about the costs of NASA's other HSF systems.  (Although I'm sure some are buried somewhere.)

Cost and budgetary realities suck but that doesn't mean they should be ignored, either.

C'mon, guys, it's time for you to get real. SLS is a bad idea, but Congress is continuing to fund it. Your complaining about SLS and HSF funding on an internet forum doesn't change a thing. If you're that passionate about it, write your Congressman.

Congress isn't funding SLS to the tune required to actually use it for anything interesting, nor are they setting any requirement that it actually be used for anything interesting. So it will likely not be used for anything interesting.

Offline UltraViolet9

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Re: SLS + BFR Tag-Team Mars Mission?
« Reply #19 on: 08/07/2018 04:32 am »
It might make more sense for NASA to put crew on Orion and use it to launch and return crew, meeting up with BFS in cis-lunar space.

Per the 2014 ASAP report, Orion/SLS has a projected loss-of-crew figure for such missions that is somewhat worse than the projected STS loss-of-crew figure at the end of that program.

No one has dealt with this yet, but Orion/SLS is predicted to kill astronauts at a higher rate than the human space transport program that the Bush II and Obama Administrations terminated because it killed astronauts at an unacceptably high rate.

Unless flight safety (and cost) is ignored, it's hard to see these systems serving a space taxi role.


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