Author Topic: Astronomical Easter Egg probability calculation  (Read 1066 times)

Offline gin455res

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Astronomical Easter Egg probability calculation
« on: 11/16/2023 01:04 pm »
A friend brought to my attention a few months back that, given:
Re=Radius Earth,
Rm = Radius Moon


8Re=2xPi x (Re+Rm)


ie. that the circle made by a radius of the earth radius  plus the moon radius has the same perimeter as the square that contains the earth.


I checked it for the polar,  and average radii of the earth. It was true to -1:19-20K, 1:2400 respectively.


So my gut tells me that this is pretty unlikely and I'm guessing it is 1:50 - 1:10,000.  I'm thinking probably 1:1000 order of magnitude.


Combining this with the moon/sun angular size coincidence. I'm guessing minimum 1:50 probability, we end up with the moon being pretty anomalous.


my gut says < 1:10000.


So here's the problem given I'm open to being in a simulation 50% (most of which is uncertainty in estimating something with no precedent having only experienced one reality), what's more likely a) I'm living in base reality with a super unlikely moon or b) the programmer has left a massive hint in the sky to let me know it's not all random?


Back down to maths (computational astronomy?) though; are there any solar accretion models/sims that provide any statistics on moon, sun planet size ratio distributions that would help better inform my gut on the significance of these coincidences?   








Offline Barley

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Re: Astronomical Easter Egg probability calculation
« Reply #1 on: 11/16/2023 04:47 pm »
The solar system contains 1 sun 8 planets about 150 moons and a few dwarf planets.

There are five Platonic solids and infinite number of regular polygons.

The probability of this type of coincidence existing is one.

Offline gin455res

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Re: Astronomical Easter Egg probability calculation
« Reply #2 on: 11/16/2023 07:32 pm »
The solar system contains 1 sun 8 planets about 150 moons and a few dwarf planets.

There are five Platonic solids and infinite number of regular polygons.

The probability of this type of coincidence existing is one.
I don't understand.  Do any of those other moons have a double geometric coincidence with both their planet and the sun?
Is that not super flukey?


The square that contains the earths circle is almost identical in perimeter to that of the earth+moon radius generated circle, using the polar diameter of earth to 1 part in almost 20,000 - that is within measurement error....

Offline gin455res

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Re: Astronomical Easter Egg probability calculation
« Reply #3 on: 11/17/2023 06:29 am »
OMG - I'm 'virtually' alone in here!


and with so few player characters around what are the chances the animals are real?


Shoot, looks like 8 years of veganism was totally futile.


Oh well, at least that explains the last 3 years, sports fans, the apathy to Snowden, Assange,  Epstein, building 7 and debt/credit based money.
« Last Edit: 11/17/2023 06:37 am by gin455res »

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