Author Topic: NextSpaceFlight lists 10 planned launches for Vulcan in 2023  (Read 7279 times)

Offline DanClemmensen

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Since when is Dreamchaser doing a demo flight?
SNC demo-1 has been listed as the second Vulcan flight for a long time. NSSL requires that Vulcan fly two non-NSSL flights prior to the first NSSL flight. presumably, you get a big discount if you are willing to fly on an LV demo flight.
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC_Demo-1
« Last Edit: 01/22/2023 02:47 pm by DanClemmensen »

Offline gongora

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Since when is Dreamchaser doing a demo flight?
SNC demo-1 has been listed as the second Vulcan flight for a long time. NSSL requires that Vulcan fly two non-NSSL flights prior to the first NSSL flight. presumably, you get a big discount if you are willing to fly on an LV demo flight.
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC_Demo-1

But where did the "Demo-1" name come from?  Did the person writing the Wikipedia article make it up?  Is there really a demo mission, or is the first flight SNC-1?  The people writing these space articles on Wikipedia don't always know what they're talking about.  The original plan for Dream Chaser when they got the award didn't have a demo flight.

Offline DanClemmensen

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Since when is Dreamchaser doing a demo flight?
SNC demo-1 has been listed as the second Vulcan flight for a long time. NSSL requires that Vulcan fly two non-NSSL flights prior to the first NSSL flight. presumably, you get a big discount if you are willing to fly on an LV demo flight.
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC_Demo-1

But where did the "Demo-1" name come from?  Did the person writing the Wikipedia article make it up?  Is there really a demo mission, or is the first flight SNC-1?  The people writing these space articles on Wikipedia don't always know what they're talking about.  The original plan for Dream Chaser when they got the award didn't have a demo flight.
What?? How could Wikipedia possibly be wrong???     :)
I think you are correct: A cursory look at the article's references failed to find any mention of "demo".

I do wonder if NASA is OK with flying a full-up CRS mission on an LV certification flight.

Going deeper, we find that Tory Bruno calls this "the first of the six missions"
     https://www.sncorp.com/news-archive/snc-selects-ula-for-dream-chaser-spacecraft-launches/
That would make it SNC-CRS1.

Going deeper still we find that SNC claime there will be seven flights:
   https://www.sierraspace.com/space-transportation/dream-chaser-spaceplane/
So now I'm even more confused than I usually am.
« Last Edit: 01/22/2023 06:00 pm by DanClemmensen »

Offline gongora

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I'd guess there won't be important equipment on the first flight.

Offline Comga

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I'd guess there won't be important equipment on the first flight.

If you mean that NASA won’t place mission critical hardware on the DreamChaser cargo inaugural flight, that’s assured and seen on the corresponding flights for Dragon and Cygnus.
They won’t send EMU hardware.
Wasn’t it “tee shirts and…” something else inexpensive but sent on every cargo flight?
They can always stock up on water. 
Maybe prove out a powered freezer by stocking it with ice cream. The astronauts won’t starve without it or get fat with extra allotments. ;)
« Last Edit: 01/22/2023 08:44 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline whitelancer64

ULA doesn't really have a great need to quickly ramp production on Vulcan for the first couple years.  They'll need a few a year at first, and then they'll need it at full rate when the Atlas V's for Amazon run out.

We know Blue Origin already had 8 Vulcan rockets in work flow at Decatur as of June 22, 2022

"We have sold 70 Vulcans.  The first 8 are in flow in the Rocket Factory"

https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1539714940897984514
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline whitelancer64

It seems that Vulcan is built in Huntsville and then moved to Florida on Rocketship. On the initial shipment, the ship carried one Vulcan. Is this the max? Rocketship takes 8 days on the journey, one way, so probably 18 days round trip including turnaround. That would mean 20 trips per year. I think the ship is also used for Atlas V and will be used for the last Delta IV Heavies.

If Rocketship can carry an average of two or more Vulcans, this will not constrain the launch rate. Is there an alternate means of transport?

How to ULA rockets get to Vandenberg?

Atlas V rockets are just small enough to be loaded on an Antonov AN-124 aircraft and flown to either Canaveral or Vandenberg.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline deadman1204

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I think we're going off topic with the discussion of the Kuiper satellite launches and Vulcan contracts. It should be in whichever thread is dedicated to Vulcan launching Kuiper.

These additions on Next Spaceflight are obviously subject to change, and who knows how many Vulcans will be launched this year?
The NextSpaceFlight website now lists 11 planned Vulcan launches for 2023 instead of 10. Therefore, the posting of this thread was quite premature, especially the title, because NextSpaceFlight routinely makes changes to expected launch windows for upcoming launches for which no firm date is set.
Just because its on the internet doesn't mean its true.

Offline whitelancer64

I'd guess there won't be important equipment on the first flight.

If you mean that NASA won’t place mission critical hardware on the DreamChaser cargo inaugural flight, that’s assured and seen on the corresponding flights for Dragon and Cygnus.
They won’t send EMU hardware.
Wasn’t it “tee shirts and…” something else inexpensive but sent on every cargo flight?
They can always stock up on water. 
Maybe prove out a powered freezer by stocking it with ice cream. The astronauts won’t starve without it or get fat with extra allotments. ;)

The soubriquet is "t-shirts, tang, and toilet paper" or sometimes just two of those three.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline whitelancer64

Since when is Dreamchaser doing a demo flight?
SNC demo-1 has been listed as the second Vulcan flight for a long time. NSSL requires that Vulcan fly two non-NSSL flights prior to the first NSSL flight. presumably, you get a big discount if you are willing to fly on an LV demo flight.
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC_Demo-1

But where did the "Demo-1" name come from?  Did the person writing the Wikipedia article make it up?  Is there really a demo mission, or is the first flight SNC-1?  The people writing these space articles on Wikipedia don't always know what they're talking about.  The original plan for Dream Chaser when they got the award didn't have a demo flight.

I thought there had always been a demo flight planned.

This is the earliest reference to a "Demo-1" flight that I can find online:


Chris Bergin - NSF
@NASASpaceflight

"A glimpse into SNC's Dream Chaser mission control (FCR).

DEMO-1 - the First Cargo Dream Chaser (named Tenacity) - launches on the second Vulcan launch in 2022."

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1336718371086364673
« Last Edit: 01/23/2023 03:23 pm by whitelancer64 »
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline Vahe231991

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Since when is Dreamchaser doing a demo flight?
SNC demo-1 has been listed as the second Vulcan flight for a long time. NSSL requires that Vulcan fly two non-NSSL flights prior to the first NSSL flight. presumably, you get a big discount if you are willing to fly on an LV demo flight.
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC_Demo-1

But where did the "Demo-1" name come from?  Did the person writing the Wikipedia article make it up?  Is there really a demo mission, or is the first flight SNC-1?  The people writing these space articles on Wikipedia don't always know what they're talking about.  The original plan for Dream Chaser when they got the award didn't have a demo flight.

I thought there had always been a demo flight planned.

This is the earliest reference to a "Demo-1" flight that I can find online:


Chris Bergin - NSF
@NASASpaceflight

"A glimpse into SNC's Dream Chaser mission control (FCR).

DEMO-1 - the First Cargo Dream Chaser (named Tenacity) - launches on the second Vulcan launch in 2022."

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1336718371086364673
Thanks for doing some research on whether the first planned Dream Chaser orbital flight is really called Demo-1, because when I went on Wikipedia, I noticed that the article "SNC Demo-1" was created in May 2020, months before the NSF tweet mentioning Demo-1 by name was written.

Offline DanClemmensen

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Since when is Dreamchaser doing a demo flight?
SNC demo-1 has been listed as the second Vulcan flight for a long time. NSSL requires that Vulcan fly two non-NSSL flights prior to the first NSSL flight. presumably, you get a big discount if you are willing to fly on an LV demo flight.
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC_Demo-1

But where did the "Demo-1" name come from?  Did the person writing the Wikipedia article make it up?  Is there really a demo mission, or is the first flight SNC-1?  The people writing these space articles on Wikipedia don't always know what they're talking about.  The original plan for Dream Chaser when they got the award didn't have a demo flight.

I thought there had always been a demo flight planned.

This is the earliest reference to a "Demo-1" flight that I can find online:


Chris Bergin - NSF
@NASASpaceflight

"A glimpse into SNC's Dream Chaser mission control (FCR).

DEMO-1 - the First Cargo Dream Chaser (named Tenacity) - launches on the second Vulcan launch in 2022."

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1336718371086364673
Thanks for doing some research on whether the first planned Dream Chaser orbital flight is really called Demo-1, because when I went on Wikipedia, I noticed that the article "SNC Demo-1" was created in May 2020, months before the NSF tweet mentioning Demo-1 by name was written.
Wikipedia calls this "citeogenisis". It occurs when a journalist uses Wikipedia and Wikipedia then cites the journalist's article as a source. AFIAK, we currently do not have an "official" nomenclature for this flight. We also don't have official nomenclature for the Dream Chaser CRS flights of which this may or may not be the first.  The name will not alter the actual facts, but it would be nice to have an official name.

Offline Conexion Espacial

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Maybe this thread was not necessary, but not having a concrete calendar, it is difficult to know when will be the launches, I already made some changes leaving the flights that possibly we will see this year (optimistic calendar as if I were Elon Musk  ;D ) and the others moving them to 2024, many flights are in "NET 2023" and we are in January, so it is difficult to define them with a date within the application.


Let's hope that after the first flight of Vulcan, we will have a decent schedule of the next launches, not only depending on the first flight, but also on the suppliers, such as Blue Origin...
« Last Edit: 01/23/2023 07:26 pm by Conexion Espacial »
I publish information in Spanish about space and rockets.
https://twitter.com/conexionspacial

Offline deadman1204

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Maybe this thread was not necessary, but not having a concrete calendar, it is difficult to know when will be the launches, I already made some changes leaving the flights that possibly we will see this year (optimistic calendar as if I were Elon Musk  ;D ) and the others moving them to 2024, many flights are in "NET 2023" and we are in January, so it is difficult to define them with a date within the application.


Let's hope that after the first flight of Vulcan, we will have a decent schedule of the next launches, not only depending on the first flight, but also on the suppliers, such as Blue Origin...
Maybe you should mention on the calendar that all dates are complete speculation? People tend to take lists like that as fact.

Offline DanClemmensen

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ULA and its predecessor Lockheed Martin are highly respected and competent organizations. ULA's current active launcher is Atlas V and Vulcan is widely perceived as its technological descendant in many ways.

The first Atlas V launch was in August 2002. The second launch was in May 2003, nine months later.  A first flight is usually considered to be a test flight for a reason, and it takes time to evaluate it even it even if it is perfect.

If Vulcan's first flight is in March 2023, when will the second flight occur?


Offline Hog

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It seems that Vulcan is built in Huntsville and then moved to Florida on Rocketship. On the initial shipment, the ship carried one Vulcan. Is this the max? Rocketship takes 8 days on the journey, one way, so probably 18 days round trip including turnaround. That would mean 20 trips per year. I think the ship is also used for Atlas V and will be used for the last Delta IV Heavies.

If Rocketship can carry an average of two or more Vulcans, this will not constrain the launch rate. Is there an alternate means of transport?

How to ULA rockets get to Vandenberg?

Atlas V rockets are just small enough to be loaded on an Antonov AN-124 aircraft and flown to either Canaveral or Vandenberg.
I'm curious, has this capability been demonstrated before?
Paul

Offline arachnitect

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It seems that Vulcan is built in Huntsville and then moved to Florida on Rocketship. On the initial shipment, the ship carried one Vulcan. Is this the max? Rocketship takes 8 days on the journey, one way, so probably 18 days round trip including turnaround. That would mean 20 trips per year. I think the ship is also used for Atlas V and will be used for the last Delta IV Heavies.

If Rocketship can carry an average of two or more Vulcans, this will not constrain the launch rate. Is there an alternate means of transport?

How to ULA rockets get to Vandenberg?

Atlas V rockets are just small enough to be loaded on an Antonov AN-124 aircraft and flown to either Canaveral or Vandenberg.
I'm curious, has this capability been demonstrated before?

https://blog.ulalaunch.com/blog/mars-2020-atlas-v-rocket-arrives-at-launch-site
« Last Edit: 01/24/2023 09:00 pm by arachnitect »

Offline whitelancer64

It seems that Vulcan is built in Huntsville and then moved to Florida on Rocketship. On the initial shipment, the ship carried one Vulcan. Is this the max? Rocketship takes 8 days on the journey, one way, so probably 18 days round trip including turnaround. That would mean 20 trips per year. I think the ship is also used for Atlas V and will be used for the last Delta IV Heavies.

If Rocketship can carry an average of two or more Vulcans, this will not constrain the launch rate. Is there an alternate means of transport?

How to ULA rockets get to Vandenberg?

Atlas V rockets are just small enough to be loaded on an Antonov AN-124 aircraft and flown to either Canaveral or Vandenberg.
I'm curious, has this capability been demonstrated before?

Yep, ever since the very first Atlas V launch.

https://artsandculture.google.com/asset/stages-of-the-first-atlas-v-rocket-are-offloaded-from-a-russian-antonov-an-124-aircraft-at-cape-canaveral-air-force-station/
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline Vahe231991

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ULA and its predecessor Lockheed Martin are highly respected and competent organizations. ULA's current active launcher is Atlas V and Vulcan is widely perceived as its technological descendant in many ways.

The first Atlas V launch was in August 2002. The second launch was in May 2003, nine months later.  A first flight is usually considered to be a test flight for a reason, and it takes time to evaluate it even it even if it is perfect.

If Vulcan's first flight is in March 2023, when will the second flight occur?
Sierra Nevada Corporation said on Twitter last September that the first Dream Chaser orbital launch will take place in the summer of this year, but because no firm date has yet been set the first orbital flight of the Dream Chaser, and the NextSpaceFlight website has changed the number of Vulcan launches planned for 2023 to five, it is possible that the second Vulcan launch could occur in Q3 2023.

Offline DanClemmensen

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ULA and its predecessor Lockheed Martin are highly respected and competent organizations. ULA's current active launcher is Atlas V and Vulcan is widely perceived as its technological descendant in many ways.

The first Atlas V launch was in August 2002. The second launch was in May 2003, nine months later.  A first flight is usually considered to be a test flight for a reason, and it takes time to evaluate it even it even if it is perfect.

If Vulcan's first flight is in March 2023, when will the second flight occur?
Sierra Nevada Corporation [said] that the first Dream Chaser orbital launch will take place in the summer of this year, but because no firm date has yet been set the first orbital flight of the Dream Chaser, and the NextSpaceFlight website has changed the number of Vulcan launches planned for 2023 to five, it is possible that the second Vulcan launch could occur in Q3 2023.
But this is even worse. If the Dream chaser flight is "summer" and is also still the second flight, then ULA will have less than six months to launch the remaining three flights in 2023, or 2 months per flight. That's unprecedented for a new orbital launcher in the last 50 years.

The five Vulcan launches is in addition to four or more Atlas V launches and one Delta IV heavy, for a total of ten or more ULA launches in 2023. ULA has not launched more than 8 times in one calendar year since 2016.

 

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