Poll

First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?

New Glenn
8 (5.8%)
Starship
130 (94.2%)

Total Members Voted: 138

Voting closes: 10/15/2023 07:39 pm


Author Topic: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?  (Read 6599 times)

Online laszlo

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #20 on: 12/27/2022 11:28 am »
... as long as Elon can get his book report done for the FAA I would really hope we'd see at least 2-3 launch attempts out of Boca Chica by the end of the year...

Today is Tuesday, end of the year is this coming Saturday. Not gonna happen, book report ready or not. The concrete isn't dry yet.

Offline high road

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #21 on: 01/03/2023 08:17 am »
Additionally, New Glenn is supposed to be significantly cheaper than Falcon Heavy's reusable launch price.

Where did you get that? The last I know that anyone paid for a Blue Origin flight, was about 10x the price of the competition. In that case, the competition doesn't have an operational vehicle, but that's the only data point we have on how Blue sets their prices.

Offline schaban

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #22 on: 01/03/2023 12:05 pm »
Next year will be the cotton wool test...
I have no idea what this means,
Most likely “cotton wool’ means explosion. Originated on mistaken translation from Russian to Ukrainian

Offline Comga

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #23 on: 01/03/2023 01:32 pm »
Next year will be the cotton wool test...
I have no idea what this means,
Most likely “cotton wool’ means explosion. Originated on mistaken translation from Russian to Ukrainian

It’s just a lazy, sloppy post.
In the vernacular, “cotton wool” has several meanings, many vulgar.
This link is to one that might be appropriate for all those Blue enthusiasts, but at the least it is acceptable in civilized public discussions.

Hint:  If you are going to be ever so cool and use obscure slang, it is a courtesy to us less cool readers to add a helpful link. 
Or we can assume you’re using the British version, Tywin.
« Last Edit: 01/03/2023 02:37 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #24 on: 01/03/2023 07:58 pm »
It's coming from Spanish, la prueba del algodon...

Nothing offensive...
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The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #25 on: 01/24/2023 08:04 pm »
Additionally, New Glenn is supposed to be significantly cheaper than Falcon Heavy's reusable launch price.

Where did you get that? The last I know that anyone paid for a Blue Origin flight, was about 10x the price of the competition. In that case, the competition doesn't have an operational vehicle, but that's the only data point we have on how Blue sets their prices.
According to Arianespace, each New Glenn launch probably costs $68 million dollars. Last year, SpaceX estimated the cost of each reusable launch of the Falcon Heavy to be $97 million. 
« Last Edit: 01/26/2023 08:01 pm by Vahe231991 »

Offline c4fusion

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #26 on: 01/26/2023 01:13 am »
Additionally, New Glenn is supposed to be significantly cheaper than Falcon Heavy's reusable launch price.

Where did you get that? The last I know that anyone paid for a Blue Origin flight, was about 10x the price of the competition. In that case, the competition doesn't have an operational vehicle, but that's the only data point we have on how Blue sets their prices.
According to , each New Glenn launch probably costs $86 million dollars. Last year, [url=https://www.space.com/spacex-raises-prices-launch-starlink-inflation]SpaceX estimated the cost of each reusable launch of the Falcon Heavy to be $97 million.

Unfortunately that link doesn’t work for me.

Offline su27k

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #27 on: 01/26/2023 02:39 am »
Unfortunately that link doesn’t work for me.

The first link is https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/05/amazon-signs-rocket-deal-with-blue-origin-arianespace-ula-for-project-kuiper-internet-satellites.html, but it doesn't say New Glenn launch costs $86M, it does say an Arianespace estimate shows New Glenn launch to cost $68M.

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #28 on: 01/26/2023 08:05 pm »
Additionally, New Glenn is supposed to be significantly cheaper than Falcon Heavy's reusable launch price.

Where did you get that? The last I know that anyone paid for a Blue Origin flight, was about 10x the price of the competition. In that case, the competition doesn't have an operational vehicle, but that's the only data point we have on how Blue sets their prices.
According to , each New Glenn launch probably costs $86 million dollars. Last year, [url=https://www.space.com/spacex-raises-prices-launch-starlink-inflation]SpaceX estimated the cost of each reusable launch of the Falcon Heavy to be $97 million.

Unfortunately that link doesn’t work for me.
I fixed the URL for the webpage mentioning the 2020 Arianespace estimate of the cost of each New Glenn launch. If the estimate by Arianespace of the cost of a New Glenn launch holds water, a New Glenn launch would cost less than that of a reusable Falcon Heavy launch.

Offline [email protected]

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #29 on: 01/26/2023 11:41 pm »
Speaking of the poll, still waiting for New Glenn to do this:
My parents was just being born when the Apollo program is over. Why we are still stuck in this stagnation, let's go forward again

Offline Stan-1967

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #30 on: 01/27/2023 12:09 am »
Additionally, New Glenn is supposed to be significantly cheaper than Falcon Heavy's reusable launch price.

Where did you get that? The last I know that anyone paid for a Blue Origin flight, was about 10x the price of the competition. In that case, the competition doesn't have an operational vehicle, but that's the only data point we have on how Blue sets their prices.
According to Arianespace, each New Glenn launch probably costs $68 million dollars. Last year, SpaceX estimated the cost of each reusable launch of the Falcon Heavy to be $97 million.

Yes, Arianespace is an authority on the cost of New Glenn, just like they were the authority on the cost of F9/FH back when they still had a dominant position in launch services.  Starship Superheavy is in a different race than NG.  It takes away from both vehicles to compare them I think.  Blue is in a race against itself to be relevant. The longer it takes Blue to get it to the pad & to orbit, the less that is at stake for them.  Cue the "nobody cares" memes when it finally happens in 2024-2026 or so.

Starship Superheavy is in a race against much more.  Physics, economics, politics, etc.  It it succeeds, its impact will be much more than just another rocket among many others.  It is a paradigm changing possibility. If it fails, then I'm betting FH will have amortized all its development cost by that time, and SpaceX will drop current prices by around 40%.  Alternately Raptor derived smaller vehicles could be a solid basis of any number of rapid fallback positions SpaceX would need to take to compete directly & at lower cost against a NG vehicle.
« Last Edit: 01/27/2023 04:02 am by Stan-1967 »

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #31 on: 01/27/2023 12:10 am »
Speaking of the poll, still waiting for New Glenn to do this:
If the first New Glenn is ever completed and subject to a WDR, notwithstanding the successful WDR for the Starship being yet another signal that the Starship will make its first launch before New Glenn, one thing that needs to be done for the New Glenn to undergo a successful WDR is for liquid hydrogen to be safely loaded to one of the tanks of the New Glenn's second stage, which uses both LOX and LH2, because during the WDRs and launch preparations for the first SLS mission, NASA personnel recognized the perils of LH2 while loading that fuel into the stages of the SLS rocket.

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #32 on: 01/27/2023 12:23 am »
Speaking of the poll, still waiting for New Glenn to do this:
If the first New Glenn is ever completed and subject to a WDR, notwithstanding the successful WDR for the Starship being yet another signal that the Starship will make its first launch before New Glenn, one thing that needs to be done for the New Glenn to undergo a successful WDR is for liquid hydrogen to be safely loaded to one of the tanks of the New Glenn's second stage, which uses both LOX and LH2, because during the WDRs and launch preparations for the first SLS mission, NASA personnel recognized the perils of LH2 while loading that fuel into the stages of the SLS rocket.
I dislike BO, but I do not see this as a big deal. Hydrolox second stages, mostly Centaur in its various forms, have been the norm for decades for Atlas and Delta. The first Centaur flew in 1962 and there have been more than 350 flights. There must be lots of experienced folks around that BO has hired or can hire to implement this very well-known solution.

Offline Bob Shaw

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #33 on: 01/27/2023 12:45 am »
Speaking of the poll, still waiting for New Glenn to do this:
If the first New Glenn is ever completed and subject to a WDR, notwithstanding the successful WDR for the Starship being yet another signal that the Starship will make its first launch before New Glenn, one thing that needs to be done for the New Glenn to undergo a successful WDR is for liquid hydrogen to be safely loaded to one of the tanks of the New Glenn's second stage, which uses both LOX and LH2, because during the WDRs and launch preparations for the first SLS mission, NASA personnel recognized the perils of LH2 while loading that fuel into the stages of the SLS rocket.
I dislike BO, but I do not see this as a big deal. Hydrolox second stages, mostly Centaur in its various forms, have been the norm for decades for Atlas and Delta. The first Centaur flew in 1962 and there have been more than 350 flights. There must be lots of experienced folks around that BO has hired or can hire to implement this very well-known solution.

It was certainly a big deal for SLS - ULA have mastered the processes, but even after nearly 200 LH2 NASA-controlled launches the institutional knowledge wasn't there. Can a tyro BO deal with deep cryo? Let's wait and see.
« Last Edit: 01/27/2023 12:53 am by Bob Shaw »

Offline whitelancer64

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #34 on: 01/27/2023 01:35 am »
Gentle reminder that Blue Origin has many years of experience working with Hydrogen and LOX, they are the propellants for New Shepard.
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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #35 on: 01/27/2023 07:19 am »
Speaking of the poll, still waiting for New Glenn to do this:

The S24 is in rocket garden right now...wait and see...
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Offline [email protected]

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #36 on: 01/27/2023 07:26 am »
Speaking of the poll, still waiting for New Glenn to do this:

The S24 is in rocket garden right now...wait and see...
Rocket Garden ≠ scrapping
https://twitter.com/SpmtTracker/status/1618659996262354944?t=NXFT2gT2ZaUJ3GmxOLw1ng&s=19
« Last Edit: 01/27/2023 07:27 am by [email protected] »
My parents was just being born when the Apollo program is over. Why we are still stuck in this stagnation, let's go forward again

Online EspenU

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #37 on: 01/27/2023 11:14 am »


It should be Starship, so I voted that way.
But I really wonder if a Raptor based 'big Falcon 9' - not dissimilar to a New Glenn - would have been a better move.
I am however, a conservative engineer, so I would think that way.

That said,  I think if New Glenn does beat Starship to orbit I think people will begin to wonder if Elon has dropped the ball, despite Starship being obviously more ambitious.

EDIT: Clarification.

That depends on what the goal of starship is.

If the goal is to bring a Falcon 9 replacement online as quickly as possible, then yes, they should have done it differently.

If the goal is to beat New Glenn, then also yes.

But, none of those are the actual goals of starship.

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #38 on: 01/27/2023 12:43 pm »


It should be Starship, so I voted that way.
But I really wonder if a Raptor based 'big Falcon 9' - not dissimilar to a New Glenn - would have been a better move.
I am however, a conservative engineer, so I would think that way.

That said,  I think if New Glenn does beat Starship to orbit I think people will begin to wonder if Elon has dropped the ball, despite Starship being obviously more ambitious.

EDIT: Clarification.

That depends on what the goal of starship is.

If the goal is to bring a Falcon 9 replacement online as quickly as possible, then yes, they should have done it differently.

If the goal is to beat New Glenn, then also yes.

But, none of those are the actual goals of starship.


Because the goal, is Mars  ::)
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #39 on: 01/27/2023 03:38 pm »
Speaking of the poll, still waiting for New Glenn to do this:

The S24 is in rocket garden right now...wait and see...
They needed to remove it from the launch site because they intend to do a 33-engine static fire of SH. They had to put it somewhere, and the stand in the rocket garden is as good a place as any. I speculate that they will move ship 25 out of the launch area and back to the production site, and they did not want ship 24 in the way. I did worry that they needed ship 24 to be in a high bay for final TPS closeout, but apparently this can be done easily just about anywhere. It think it's harder (takes more time and effort) to put a rocket in a high bay than it is to put it in the Rocket garden.

 

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