Author Topic: Reuse milestones  (Read 70145 times)

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Reuse milestones
« Reply #100 on: 02/20/2023 02:48 pm »
Musk said it, and they're probably not going to hit that number, so you have two reasons for the inevitable gratuitous criticism that's surely to follow at year's end.
They said 60 last year and got to 61, more than 99% of what poll voters on this SpaceX-friendly site voted for.

I expected 37.

I don’t think 100 is out of the picture at all. If they need to get additional approvals, then that’s what they’ll do.
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Offline alugobi

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Re: Reuse milestones
« Reply #101 on: 02/20/2023 04:15 pm »
60 and 61 were December 28 and 29. 

They might get 100, if all the stars and payloads line up.  Still, 40 more will be remarkable.  It's not being critical to be wary of this particular prediction. 

Whatever it is, numbers don't really matter; they're the launch leader and their service has settled into a reliable, dependable, capable state of affairs that is the envy of the competition. 

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Reuse milestones
« Reply #102 on: 02/20/2023 05:47 pm »
60 and 61 were December 28 and 29. 

They might get 100, if all the stars and payloads line up.  Still, 40 more will be remarkable.  It's not being critical to be wary of this particular prediction. 

Whatever it is, numbers don't really matter; they're the launch leader and their service has settled into a reliable, dependable, capable state of affairs that is the envy of the competition.
So far this year, they're on track for 85 Falcon launches. If they increase their overall launch rate by a small amount, they'll beat 100 this year.

Again, I was wary of 60. Very wary. I was proven very wrong. We're in the exponential part of the growth curve for launch rates, or at least not yet at a plateau. F9 (and Falcon Heavy, which is starting to become a regular thing) has not stopped growing in launch rate. Starship will almost certainly get 2 orbital flight attempts this year, and 5 is not out of the question. (We have B7 complete, B9 with SN25 nearly complete, and B10 nearing completion, with parts for B11 and B12 and B13 and even B14 already spotted... and this assumes no recovery.)

I wouldn't say the odds are like 90% or even necessarily over 50%... But we were basically all dismissive of 60 in 2022, and this would be a smaller relative growth rate than 2021 (32 launches) to 2022 (61).
« Last Edit: 02/20/2023 05:53 pm by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Online niwax

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Re: Reuse milestones
« Reply #103 on: 02/20/2023 08:49 pm »
60 and 61 were December 28 and 29. 

They might get 100, if all the stars and payloads line up.  Still, 40 more will be remarkable.  It's not being critical to be wary of this particular prediction. 

Whatever it is, numbers don't really matter; they're the launch leader and their service has settled into a reliable, dependable, capable state of affairs that is the envy of the competition.
So far this year, they're on track for 85 Falcon launches. If they increase their overall launch rate by a small amount, they'll beat 100 this year.

Again, I was wary of 60. Very wary. I was proven very wrong. We're in the exponential part of the growth curve for launch rates, or at least not yet at a plateau. F9 (and Falcon Heavy, which is starting to become a regular thing) has not stopped growing in launch rate. Starship will almost certainly get 2 orbital flight attempts this year, and 5 is not out of the question. (We have B7 complete, B9 with SN25 nearly complete, and B10 nearing completion, with parts for B11 and B12 and B13 and even B14 already spotted... and this assumes no recovery.)

I wouldn't say the odds are like 90% or even necessarily over 50%... But we were basically all dismissive of 60 in 2022, and this would be a smaller relative growth rate than 2021 (32 launches) to 2022 (61).

There are a lot of interesting breadcrumbs to follow here. For example, the top 5 pad turnarounds are now firmly at 60/year *from the same pad*, and two of those happened in the first 40 days of this year. Regardless of the actual number this year, they will demonstrate an astounding capability. If nothing else, in finding some $4 billion of yearly business on a $800 million rocket, never mind Starlink.
Which booster has the most soot? SpaceX booster launch history! (discussion)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Reuse milestones
« Reply #104 on: 03/19/2023 05:59 pm »
Current booster fleet status

twitter.com/_rykllan/status/1637519830772330496

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#SpaceX's #Falcon9 & #FalconHeavy flightworthy boosters as of Mar 17, 2023

https://twitter.com/_rykllan/status/1637519835054723075

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Statistics of #SpaceX's #Falcon9 & #FalconHeavy booster missions as of Mar 17, 2023

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Reuse milestones
« Reply #105 on: 06/12/2023 09:56 pm »
I think 200 successful booster landings constitutes a milestone :)

https://twitter.com/alexphysics13/status/1668375943868547072

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I was thinking of doing a tweet with all the landing stats on text format but there's a lot so here's a screenshot of my spreadsheet which is easier :)

It feels like there were more but only 11 surface landings failed, last one occurred 126 landings ago!

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For "surface landing" I refer to those landings that attempted to land the booster on a solid surface for recovery. There were splashdown landings as you can see on the sheet but even then there'd be only two more failures to add, not a lot of failures overall.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Reuse milestones
« Reply #106 on: 06/13/2023 06:48 am »
Latest SpaceX animation really shows increase in launch cadence enabled by reuse:

twitter.com/spacex/status/1668399552771297285

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Rocket reusability enables increased reliability and launch cadence

https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1668399691216855042

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Flight-proven first stages have launched ~90% of the last 100+ missions since the start of 2022

Offline spacenut

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Re: Reuse milestones
« Reply #107 on: 06/13/2023 01:17 pm »
How many launches has SpaceX had this year?   I count 40, is that correct? 
« Last Edit: 06/13/2023 01:28 pm by spacenut »

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Reuse milestones
« Reply #108 on: 06/13/2023 01:30 pm »
How many launches has SpaceX had this year?

38x Falcon 9, 2x Falcon Heavy and 1x Starship for a total of 41 launch attempts with one launch failure (Starship).

Offline AmigaClone

Re: Reuse milestones
« Reply #109 on: 06/13/2023 03:11 pm »
Latest SpaceX animation really shows increase in launch cadence enabled by reuse:

twitter.com/spacex/status/1668399552771297285

Quote
Rocket reusability enables increased reliability and launch cadence

https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1668399691216855042

Quote
Flight-proven first stages have launched ~90% of the last 100+ missions since the start of 2022

Since 1 January 2022, SpaceX has launched a member of the Falcon 9 family 101 times (98 F9, 3 FH). Two of the three FH launches used two flight-proven side boosters. Flight-proven boosters were used on 91 of the F9 flights.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Reuse milestones
« Reply #110 on: 06/16/2023 07:18 pm »
https://twitter.com/patrick_colqu/status/1669756172272906256

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Covering the latest in the busy world of Spaceflight with @elysiasegal!

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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Reuse milestones
« Reply #111 on: 07/10/2023 05:11 am »
New booster reuse record achieved:

https://twitter.com/nasaspaceflight/status/1678254802164232195

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Falcon 9 B1058 conducts a record 16th mission with landing on SpaceX drone ship Just Read The Instructions.

#ReusabiltyMilestones

 youtube.com/watch?v=KSxh8d…

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Reuse milestones
« Reply #112 on: 07/10/2023 03:43 pm »
New engines on B1058.16 since its last flight?

 - Ed Kyle

Offline whitelancer64

Re: Reuse milestones
« Reply #113 on: 07/10/2023 03:49 pm »
New engines on B1058.16 since its last flight?

 - Ed Kyle

No way to know that unless SpaceX tells us. They likely do engine swaps on a regular basis. We know they rotate parts around to get life leader experience faster.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
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Offline JamesH65

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Re: Reuse milestones
« Reply #114 on: 07/12/2023 12:31 pm »
New engines on B1058.16 since its last flight?

 - Ed Kyle

Only when necessary? Clearly reuse even with engine swaps is way cheaper than expendable. So does it matter if they occasionally have to replace one?

Offline freddo411

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Re: Reuse milestones
« Reply #115 on: 07/12/2023 12:34 pm »
New engines on B1058.16 since its last flight?

 - Ed Kyle

I tweeted a version of this question to Elon.   No answer so far

Offline freddo411

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Re: Reuse milestones
« Reply #116 on: 07/12/2023 12:36 pm »
Got a ways to go to catch Space Shuttle discovery's 39 flights.

However, only 2 RS-25 engines flew more than 15 times.   One 19 times, and the other 17 times.

SX is most likely closing in on engine reuse records

Offline steveleach

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Re: Reuse milestones
« Reply #117 on: 07/12/2023 12:42 pm »
Got a ways to go to catch Space Shuttle discovery's 39 flights.

However, only 2 RS-25 engines flew more than 15 times.   One 19 times, and the other 17 times.

SX is most likely closing in on engine reuse records
Are they? Do F9 boosters keep the same engines for their entire lives?

Offline Yggdrasill

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Re: Reuse milestones
« Reply #118 on: 07/12/2023 01:14 pm »
I would assume engines are continually cycled through different vehicles, as needed. If so, some may have flown more than 20 times. And alternatively, maybe none have exceeded 10 times. It's not really possible to tell without more information.

Offline freddo411

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Re: Reuse milestones
« Reply #119 on: 07/12/2023 01:14 pm »
Got a ways to go to catch Space Shuttle discovery's 39 flights.

However, only 2 RS-25 engines flew more than 15 times.   One 19 times, and the other 17 times.

SX is most likely closing in on engine reuse records
Are they? Do F9 boosters keep the same engines for their entire lives?

As far as I know, how many and how often F9 engines are swapped in/out is not publicly known.   

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