Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3

[DanClemmensen]

I really want Starliner to fly all its planned crew rotation missions following CFT.

People on social media are thinking it’ll fly only once or twice and be scrapped. Or never fly at all.

Starliner is also part of Blue Origin's Orbital Reef program so if that goes forward there is additional potential there.

But isn't that contingent on Starliner being certified/man rated on Vulcan? Orbital Reef sounds like they are willing to buy if available, but who is the sucker who is going to pay for the cert first?

That may be the plan but if something happened their choice would be (finish) paying for cert of Starliner, develop own vehicle or buy a Dragon flight, the latter of which is probably not a realistic option.

From the technical and economic perspectives, Crew Dragon, Soyuz, or the Chinese spacecraft are the only options, so you are using "realistic" in some other sense. Presumably Dream Chaser and Starship will become available eventually.

[Zed_Noir]

I really want Starliner to fly all its planned crew rotation missions following CFT.

People on social media are thinking it’ll fly only once or twice and be scrapped. Or never fly at all.

Starliner is also part of Blue Origin's Orbital Reef program so if that goes forward there is additional potential there.

But isn't that contingent on Starliner being certified/man rated on Vulcan? Orbital Reef sounds like they are willing to buy if available, but who is the sucker who is going to pay for the cert first?

That may be the plan but if something happened their choice would be (finish) paying for cert of Starliner, develop own vehicle or buy a Dragon flight, the latter of which is probably not a realistic option.

From the technical and economic perspectives, Crew Dragon, Soyuz, or the Chinese spacecraft are the only options, so you are using "realistic" in some other sense. Presumably Dream Chaser and Starship will become available eventually.

Ahem. The only current option is additional Crew Dragon flights. Maybe with the Starliner flights added as an option if someone pays for certifying it on another booster or two.

The Soyuz and the Shenzhou are too small in crew and payload carrying capacities. Nevermind the geo-political hundles.

DreamChaser will take a lot of time and money to be able to carry people to orbit and back.

If the Starship is operational, the whole Orbital Reef concept is toasted. IMO.

[erioladastra]

I really want Starliner to fly all its planned crew rotation missions following CFT.

People on social media are thinking it’ll fly only once or twice and be scrapped. Or never fly at all.

Starliner is also part of Blue Origin's Orbital Reef program so if that goes forward there is additional potential there.

But isn't that contingent on Starliner being certified/man rated on Vulcan? Orbital Reef sounds like they are willing to buy if available, but who is the sucker who is going to pay for the cert first?

That may be the plan but if something happened their choice would be (finish) paying for cert of Starliner, develop own vehicle or buy a Dragon flight, the latter of which is probably not a realistic option.

From the technical and economic perspectives, Crew Dragon, Soyuz, or the Chinese spacecraft are the only options, so you are using "realistic" in some other sense. Presumably Dream Chaser and Starship will become available eventually.

Due to political considerations Soyuz and a Chinese spacecraft are not realistic options.  Crewed Dreamchaser is a possibility but the same issue there as certifying Starliner on their own dime.  And realistically there is no way in heck Bezos would buy a Dragon flight I suspect.

[Zed_Noir]

I really want Starliner to fly all its planned crew rotation missions following CFT.

People on social media are thinking it’ll fly only once or twice and be scrapped. Or never fly at all.

Starliner is also part of Blue Origin's Orbital Reef program so if that goes forward there is additional potential there.

But isn't that contingent on Starliner being certified/man rated on Vulcan? Orbital Reef sounds like they are willing to buy if available, but who is the sucker who is going to pay for the cert first?

That may be the plan but if something happened their choice would be (finish) paying for cert of Starliner, develop own vehicle or buy a Dragon flight, the latter of which is probably not a realistic option.

From the technical and economic perspectives, Crew Dragon, Soyuz, or the Chinese spacecraft are the only options, so you are using "realistic" in some other sense. Presumably Dream Chaser and Starship will become available eventually.

Due to political considerations Soyuz and a Chinese spacecraft are not realistic options.  Crewed Dreamchaser is a possibility but the same issue there as certifying Starliner on their own dime.  And realistically there is no way in heck Bezos would buy a Dragon flight I suspect.

It's either flying on the Crew Dragon or no Orbital Reef, IMO. As stated up thread if Bezos waits too long and the Starship becomes operational, could render the Orbital Reef concept moot. As it is, might be already too late for the current Orbital Reef concept to be implemented.

[erioladastra]

It's either flying on the Crew Dragon or no Orbital Reef, IMO. As stated up thread if Bezos waits too long and the Starship becomes operational, could render the Orbital Reef concept moot. As it is, might be already too late for the current Orbital Reef concept to be implemented.

Well that assumes Bezos wouldn't go it alone.  If I have learned anything about him he goes his way at his pace where he wants to go. 

The Starship concept of ops for long term orbital style station is not really likely to make a true station, if there is actually a market(s), moot. 

[kevinof]

I figure there’s zero chance Orbital reef will get to orbit in less than 10 years so the discussion is all mute. Right now Dragon is the only game in town and if Bezos and co don’t like that then they had better get busy. But I won’t hold my breath.

[deadman1204]

I really want Starliner to fly all its planned crew rotation missions following CFT.

People on social media are thinking it’ll fly only once or twice and be scrapped. Or never fly at all.

Starliner is also part of Blue Origin's Orbital Reef program so if that goes forward there is additional potential there.

But isn't that contingent on Starliner being certified/man rated on Vulcan? Orbital Reef sounds like they are willing to buy if available, but who is the sucker who is going to pay for the cert first?

That may be the plan but if something happened their choice would be (finish) paying for cert of Starliner, develop own vehicle or buy a Dragon flight, the latter of which is probably not a realistic option.

From the technical and economic perspectives, Crew Dragon, Soyuz, or the Chinese spacecraft are the only options, so you are using "realistic" in some other sense. Presumably Dream Chaser and Starship will become available eventually.

Due to political considerations Soyuz and a Chinese spacecraft are not realistic options.  Crewed Dreamchaser is a possibility but the same issue there as certifying Starliner on their own dime.  And realistically there is no way in heck Bezos would buy a Dragon flight I suspect.

It's either flying on the Crew Dragon or no Orbital Reef, IMO. As stated up thread if Bezos waits too long and the Starship becomes operational, could render the Orbital Reef concept moot. As it is, might be already too late for the current Orbital Reef concept to be implemented.

Again with this silly idea that starship will own all things space, cause there is no room for any other company. It seems to me there is more than 1 aircraft manufacturer, more than 1 automobile company, ect.

Besides, without competition, spaceX will become ULA 2.0. That is how business works.

[Zed_Noir]

<snip>

Due to political considerations Soyuz and a Chinese spacecraft are not realistic options.  Crewed Dreamchaser is a possibility but the same issue there as certifying Starliner on their own dime.  And realistically there is no way in heck Bezos would buy a Dragon flight I suspect.

It's either flying on the Crew Dragon or no Orbital Reef, IMO. As stated up thread if Bezos waits too long and the Starship becomes operational, could render the Orbital Reef concept moot. As it is, might be already too late for the current Orbital Reef concept to be implemented.

Again with this silly idea that starship will own all things space, cause there is no room for any other company. It seems to me there is more than 1 aircraft manufacturer, more than 1 automobile company, ect.
<snip>

I clearly stated the current Orbital Reef concept might be too late for implementation. Nothing about the viability of another Blue Origin orbital platform concept.

IMO, the Orbital Reef concept will likely not work as a second follow on orbital platform operator.

[yg1968]

https://twitter.com/SenBillNelson/status/1620571250132414464

[su27k]

Human spaceflight safety in a new commercial era

As important as that cultural shift is—encouraging debate, avoiding the normalization of deviance seen in both the Challenger and Columbia accidents—there is a bigger change with potential implications for safety. All three accidents NASA memorializes involve vehicles owned and operated by the agency. But, the last time NASA astronauts launched on such a vehicle was the final shuttle mission in 2011. Since they, they have flown to the space station—owned and operated by multiple governments—on either Russian Soyuz vehicles or commercial crew vehicles: SpaceX’s Crew Dragon and, as soon as this April, Boeing’s CST-100 Starliner.

That shift, at a minimum, changes the dynamic of safety with NASA no longer in full control. “It’s a challenge,” Nelson acknowledged. “Who, at the end of the day, if it’s a NASA mission, is responsible? It’s us. Therefore, we’ve got to look over their shoulder, we've got to ask the questions, and use the same degree of rigor that we would, if it were a government mission only.”