Author Topic: Europa Clipper  (Read 231895 times)

Online Blackstar

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Europa Clipper
« on: 03/05/2019 09:21 pm »
http://planetarynews.org/



FYI:  From the Planetary Exploration Newsletter”

ICEMAG UPDATE ON EUROPA CLIPPER

After months of deliberations and analyzing various options, I recently
made the difficult decision to terminate the Interior Characterization
of Europa using Magnetometry (ICEMAG) investigation on the Europa
Clipper mission. I believe this decision was necessary as a result of
continued, significant cost growth and remaining high cost risk for
this investigation, and aligned with Academy guidance received for this
important mission.
 
During Phase A the entire Europa Clipper payload experienced
significant resource growth, (including cost growth) due to
accommodation challenges. This is expected due to system and
environmental challenges for this mission, and typically confined to
Phase A. However, during the System Requirements Review/Mission
Definition Review and at the subsequent KDP B gate review concerns
were raised that further growth was probable. This was a concern for
NASA because of the guidance from the National Academies received
directing NASA to keep Clipper cost in check due to the importance of
program balance across all of planetary sciences.
 
This is why in 2017 NASA implemented a process to monitor resource
usage for each Europa Clipper instrument. As part of the process, cost
triggers were defined for each instrument with the understanding that
exceeding the trigger would escalate the situation from the PI to the
project and eventually to NASA Headquarters until a resolution was
found.
 
In part, due to the implementation of these processes, payload resource
growth soon came under control, a success I credit to the hard work of
the PIs and mission teams. However, in March 2018, the ICEMAG
investigation began to steadily approach its cost trigger, and three
months later exceeded it. During this time and into early 2019, the
ICEMAG team worked hard to address the cost growth and solve technical
challenges, primarily related to the scalar vector helium sensors and
their accommodation. The cost trigger was repeatedly increased to
compensate for spacecraft accommodation. But cost growth continued to
outpace increases to the cost trigger. At a briefing on February 14,
2019, the Principal Investigator presented a full status of the
investigation to NASA Headquarters. This briefing included a current
cost estimate from the ICEMAG PI of $45.6M for Phases A-D. This latest
cost estimate is $8.3M above the cost trigger set in January 2019 and
$16M above the original cost trigger set in February 2017. Altogether
this represents a cost approximately three times the cost estimate
presented in the original ICEMAG proposal.
 
The level of cost growth on ICEMAG is not acceptable, and NASA
considers the investigation to possess significant potential for
additional cost growth. As a result, I decided to terminate the ICEMAG
investigation.
 
The PI and Europa Clipper Project Scientist diligently and thoroughly
explained to me the role ICEMAG plays in achieving the Europa Clipper
science objectives. It is clear to me that a magnetometer investigation
brings significant value to Europa science and exploration. I am
committed to finding a way to include a simpler, less complex
magnetometer on the mission as a facility instrument, recognizing the
importance of ease of integration onto the spacecraft provided boom.
Furthermore, all ICEMAG Co-Investigators will be invited to remain on
the Europa Clipper science team to support the mission. I have directed
Dr. Lori Glaze, the director for the Planetary Science Division, to
present plans within the next two weeks to achieve this goal.
 
Finally, NASA remains fully committed to Europa Clipper as an
investigation to explore Europa with particular focus on its
habitability. We consider it a critical part of the mission portfolio
of NASA Science, and am looking forward to see this development mature
towards flight.
 
Regards,
 
Thomas H. Zurbuchen
Associate Administrator, Science Mission Directorate
« Last Edit: 03/05/2019 10:07 pm by Blackstar »

Offline UltraViolet9

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Re: Europa Clipper
« Reply #1 on: 03/06/2019 12:29 am »

The primary mission of subsurface ocean characterization rests on three instruments -- radar, plasma, and magnetometer.  It probably won't, but I hope this doesn't shorten the magnetometer leg to the point that it compromises that mission.

It's the right thing to do from a management standpoint.  But it's too bad the cost growth wasn't in a less critical instrument.  Or that those three instruments were not clearly prioritized over the rest of the suite from mission start.

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Europa Clipper
« Reply #2 on: 03/06/2019 06:26 am »
I'm curious as to why the magnetometer turned out to be such a challenge.  Did it need greater sensitivity than past instruments used on previous missions to provide useful data?.  Or was there some other issue regarding integration with the spacecraft?  If anyone knows what challenge was driving the cost growth I would love to hear the reason.

Offline ccdengr

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Re: Europa Clipper
« Reply #3 on: 03/06/2019 03:20 pm »
I'm curious as to why the magnetometer turned out to be such a challenge.
My guess would be the radiation environment coupled with project-mandated extreme overconservatism about being able to survive the environment with huge amounts of margin.

Offline w9gb

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Re: Europa Clipper
« Reply #4 on: 03/06/2019 04:07 pm »
Carol Raymond, at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, was the Principal Investigator for ICEMAG.
JPL’s Scalar Helium Magnetometer was suppose to be ready for the Juno mission, it was not included.
I understand that Juno used magnetometer like MAVEN, Voyager, Lunar Prospecter, etc.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetometer_(Juno)

Supposedly, the Galileo MAG instrument (used at Jupiter’s radiation environment) was going to be the baseline for the Europa Clipper mission.  UCLA and Imperial College (UK) worked on Galileo MAG.
https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/experiment/display.action?id=1989-084B-03

The Cassini mission had a MAG for its mission at Saturn. 
That science team for Cassini was the Imperial College (UK).
https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/missions/cassini/mission/spacecraft/cassini-orbiter/magnetometer/

NASA is seeking a replacement MAG for Europa that will fit within budget and science objectives.
I would expect a MAG version, like that flown on Juno and Cassini, that fits within power & fiscal budgets.
Rep. John Culbertson, strong House supporter of Europa mission lost his re-election ...
SO it’s future (avoid cancellation) depends to fiscal responsibility.
« Last Edit: 03/06/2019 04:11 pm by w9gb »

Offline ccdengr

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Re: Europa Clipper
« Reply #5 on: 03/06/2019 05:07 pm »
Europa Clipper sees much more radiation than Juno (IIRC, 10x more at least) and Juno sees more than Galileo did, so it's not at all clear that leftover hardware will work.

IMHO the Clipper team should have satisfied themselves with fewer flybys, which would have reduced the radiation dose to more manageable levels, but the desire for more science payoff overrode that.

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: Europa Clipper
« Reply #6 on: 03/06/2019 10:17 pm »
Sorry for the Captain Obvious statement...
It will be interesting to learn more about the issues driving the projected cost overrun.  Also, what design of magnetometer will satisfy scientific, operational, and cost interests.
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: Europa Clipper
« Reply #7 on: 03/08/2019 07:13 pm »
Please note, previous Europa Clipper discussion took place in the "Proposed Europa Missions" thread.
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=27871.0
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: Europa Clipper
« Reply #8 on: 03/12/2019 10:17 pm »
I couldn't find a separate line item for Europa Clipper in the NASA budget documents released yesterday.  However,  in The Planetary Society piece by Casey Dreier, dated March 11: Amidst Cuts to NASA, Mars Sample Return May Finally Happen

Quote
The Administration also proposes to accelerate the development of Europa Clipper toward a launch in 2023 as opposed to the late 2020s. NASA had previously resisted efforts by former Congressman John Culberson to commit to such an aggressive development schedule because of the financial commitment required to be ready so quickly. In this budget NASA appears to have accepted the timeline in exchange for launching Europa Clipper on a commercial rocket instead of an unproven Space Launch System vehicle. NASA claims the switch to a commercial rocket would save as much as $700 million, even though it would add a few years to the journey. A less generous interpretation is that NASA is worried about SLS being available to launch Europa Clipper. Eric Berger at ArsTechnica has an excellent summary of the implications of the FY 2020 budget for the SLS, which has experienced ongoing delays and must serve first the needs of the human spaceflight program.
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Offline vjkane

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Re: Europa Clipper
« Reply #9 on: 03/12/2019 10:47 pm »
I couldn't find a separate line item for Europa Clipper in the NASA budget documents released yesterday.  However,  in The Planetary Society piece by Casey Dreier, dated March 11: Amidst Cuts to NASA, Mars Sample Return May Finally Happen

Quote
The Administration also proposes to accelerate the development of Europa Clipper toward a launch in 2023 as opposed to the late 2020s. NASA had previously resisted efforts by former Congressman John Culberson to commit to such an aggressive development schedule because of the financial commitment required to be ready so quickly. In this budget NASA appears to have accepted the timeline in exchange for launching Europa Clipper on a commercial rocket instead of an unproven Space Launch System vehicle. NASA claims the switch to a commercial rocket would save as much as $700 million, even though it would add a few years to the journey. A less generous interpretation is that NASA is worried about SLS being available to launch Europa Clipper. Eric Berger at ArsTechnica has an excellent summary of the implications of the FY 2020 budget for the SLS, which has experienced ongoing delays and must serve first the needs of the human spaceflight program.
It helps that JPL found a way to launch on the Falcon Heavy with a Star 48 booster that allows the mission to avoid the Venus flyby (or maybe it was two).  If I remember presentations from a few years back, that makes the journey ~5 years vs ~7 with the Venus flybys vs ~2 for a direct launch via SLS.

I agree with Casey that the worry over availability of the SLS, and the fact that Clipper might be the second launch, probably scares the hell out of them.  The scars of Galileo's tortured path to launch are still fresh.

Offline redliox

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Re: Europa Clipper
« Reply #10 on: 03/12/2019 11:30 pm »
It helps that JPL found a way to launch on the Falcon Heavy with a Star 48 booster that allows the mission to avoid the Venus flyby (or maybe it was two).  If I remember presentations from a few years back, that makes the journey ~5 years vs ~7 with the Venus flybys vs ~2 for a direct launch via SLS.

I recall how FH and Delta 4 both had the potential to reduce the flight to a single, Juno-esque, Earth flyby.

I also would hope they'd avoid the problems Galileo had; had that mission lived up to its potential (with a HGA that could deliver data faster) we would be designing a lander instead of an orbiter now.
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Offline theinternetftw

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Re: Europa Clipper
« Reply #11 on: 03/13/2019 07:37 am »
From the budget telecon:

Quote
LOREN GRUSH: Hi. Thank you for taking my question. I'm just curious what all the available
commercial options for launching Europa Clipper would be without SLS and how each one of
those would change the length of the mission.
ANDREW HUNTER: The EELV Delta IV would be probably the prime candidate there.
BRIAN DEWHURST: And with the transit time, it would be a lot longer, at least 4 or 5 years as
opposed to 1 to 2. I'd have to double check those exact times, but that's the trade
« Last Edit: 03/13/2019 07:40 am by theinternetftw »

Offline Star One

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Re: Europa Clipper
« Reply #12 on: 03/13/2019 11:12 am »
From the budget telecon:

Quote
LOREN GRUSH: Hi. Thank you for taking my question. I'm just curious what all the available
commercial options for launching Europa Clipper would be without SLS and how each one of
those would change the length of the mission.
ANDREW HUNTER: The EELV Delta IV would be probably the prime candidate there.
BRIAN DEWHURST: And with the transit time, it would be a lot longer, at least 4 or 5 years as
opposed to 1 to 2. I'd have to double check those exact times, but that's the trade

Why no mention of FH with STAR 48 there?

Offline hopalong

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Re: Europa Clipper
« Reply #13 on: 03/13/2019 11:43 am »
From the budget telecon:

Quote
LOREN GRUSH: Hi. Thank you for taking my question. I'm just curious what all the available
commercial options for launching Europa Clipper would be without SLS and how each one of
those would change the length of the mission.
ANDREW HUNTER: The EELV Delta IV would be probably the prime candidate there.
BRIAN DEWHURST: And with the transit time, it would be a lot longer, at least 4 or 5 years as
opposed to 1 to 2. I'd have to double check those exact times, but that's the trade

Why no mention of FH with STAR 48 there?

I would guess is that they are more familiar with the Delta, a question would be, is there one available as the production line is being closed down and all the remaining Deltas scheduled to be built have been allocated to USAF/NRO type missions. If a Delta IV Heavy is to be used, they better get the order in quick.

Offline LouScheffer

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Re: Europa Clipper
« Reply #14 on: 03/13/2019 02:12 pm »
The FH+Star looks to have a significant advantage.  Assume Clipper is 6000 kg.  Add a STAR-48 to get 8000 kg, then use a Juno-like trajectory.  Launch with a C3 of 31 (which FH can do with this mass, but D4H cannot).  Do a deep space maneuver of 800 m/s using the STAR, then a single earth flyby, then on to Jupiter.  So a 5-year trajectory and no special thermal design, since it never gets closer to the sun than the Earth's orbit.

A D4H does not have enough performance for this trajectory, so instead it would need to do a multi-flyby course.  For 6000 kg, it can supply a C3 of about 28.  According to TRAJECTORIES TO JUPITER VIA GRAVITY ASSISTS FROM VENUS, EARTH, AND MARS, all trajectories to Jupiter within the ability of the D4H involve a Venus flyby, and take more than 6 years.

Offline matthewkantar

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Re: Europa Clipper
« Reply #15 on: 03/13/2019 03:23 pm »
I really like the science section, and i really appreciate your (Blackstar) contributions to it. Science missions do ride rockets though, and the choice of ride does effect missions. 

Offline Star One

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Re: Europa Clipper
« Reply #16 on: 03/13/2019 03:41 pm »
I really like the science section, and i really appreciate your (Blackstar) contributions to it. Science missions do ride rockets though, and the choice of ride does effect missions.

Precisely. As we can see above the choice of launcher will have a long lasting impact on the mission itself. Especially as sometimes the transit stage is longer than the science mission.

Offline Kansan52

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Re: Europa Clipper
« Reply #17 on: 03/13/2019 04:01 pm »
You know, the tendency for every discussion in the SCIENCE section to turn into a launcher discussion leads me increasingly to believe that the science section of this group is rather pointless. Maybe it should just be eliminated?

I am ignorant on many points and these discussions really help me learn. I look forward to your posts and articles because I learn from you.

The launcher discussions helps me as well because I do not know the nuances.

Joining NSF has taught me a LOT. In no small part because of you. So I am not for reducing these posts.

Offline vjkane

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Re: Europa Clipper
« Reply #18 on: 03/13/2019 04:16 pm »
I have almost never seen discussions of launch vehicles in the science section add to the discussion of the science mission, in part because they can stray into armchair mission architectures/fantasies.

However, in this case, I think it's appropriate because 1) we all remember (or should remind ourselves) of what happened to the last planetary mission tied to an untried launch vehicle (Galileo) and 2) there are meaningful spacecraft design issues if the trajectory takes the craft to the orbit of Venus.

Offline Star One

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Europa Clipper
« Reply #19 on: 03/13/2019 04:27 pm »
I have almost never seen discussions of launch vehicles in the science section add to the discussion of the science mission, in part because they can stray into armchair mission architectures/fantasies.

However, in this case, I think it's appropriate because 1) we all remember (or should remind ourselves) of what happened to the last planetary mission tied to an untried launch vehicle (Galileo) and 2) there are meaningful spacecraft design issues if the trajectory takes the craft to the orbit of Venus.

Yet to me not to expect discussion of the launchers on a forum mostly dedicated to such technology seems a odd stance to take.

Also your first paragraph is a statement of personal opinion not fact, though the way you have worded it suggests you think it is the latter rather than the former.
« Last Edit: 03/13/2019 04:31 pm by Star One »

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