Yaogan-30 Group 11 (?) & Tianqi-? - CZ-2C (?) - Xichang - TBD

[zubenelgenubi]

This new thread's initial title has four question marks.

Before the mass-deletions on the PRC spaceflight fora earlier this month, we had conflicting information about a probable orbital launch from Xichang circa September 23 through 25.

The previous Xichang launch from LC-2 or 3 was on September 9.  From past experience, the minimum turn-around for such launches is approximately 14 days.

Tianqi-10 series

Tianqi-12 launched with Yaogan-30 Group 08.
Tianqi-14 launched with Yaogan-30 Group 09.
Tianqi-15 launched with Yaogan-30 Group10.

From the Yaogan-30 Group 09 launch thread:

Tianqi-14 was namend Jiaxing-1(嘉兴号)
According to this source http://www.3snews.net/smartcity/260000072347.html the next satellites of the constellation will be launched on July 21st (Ruijin-1;瑞金号) and September 20th (Yan'an-1;延安号)

If the pattern continues, a Tianqi satellite named Yan'an-1 will launch with Yaogan-30 Group 11.

Spaceflightfans.cn <snip>

CZ-2C (Y49) with Yaogan-30 Grp-10 on September 23.

However, we have this information from the launch of Yaogan-30 Group 10:

<snip>
This is also the last of the YG-30 triplets "at this stage". Also on board is Tianqi-15 which will join its LEO comms/IoT constellation.

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mS3_lJ8hz9gZkYuzomNDtg

And, the schedule information below shows a CZ-3B launch coming next.

A user on the 9ifly posted this regarding to the launch schedule from Xichang for the remainder of the year. Knowing that launch opperations alternate between LC-2 and LC-3 we can determine several things. (The first two launches listed were Tianlian-1 05 and Yaogan-30 Group 10)
August 6th to August 8th: LC-2 - CZ-3B - ChinaSat-2E
August 23th to August 25nd: LC-3 - CZ-3B - ?
September 8th to September 9th: LC-2 - CZ-3B - ChinaSat-9B
September 23rd to September 25th: LC-3 - CZ-3B - ?
October 16th to October 18th: LC-2 - CZ-3B - ?
November 2nd to November 4th: LC-3 - CZ-3B - ?
November 26th to November 28th: LC-2 - CZ-3B - ?
December 13th to December 15th: LC-3 - CZ-2D - ?
December 29th to January 1st: LC-2 - CZ-3B - ?

If a CZ-3B launches from Xichang, it would likely (not certainly) carry a payload to geosynchronous transfer orbit (GTO).

Counter to that, the usual pattern of launch complex usage alternates between LC-2 and 3.  Thus, LC-3 should be next used. And thus far, all the Yaogan-30 group launches have used LC-3.

The next information will likely be NOTAMs and perhaps NOTMARs associated with the launch.  The payload fairing and stage drop zones would indicate the launch azimuth (direction measured from due north), and the azimuth indicates the orbital inclination.

The orbital parameters observed in the hours after launch indicate the intended mission or missions of the satellite(s) (form follows function).

(If there is such a Xichang launch imminent.)

We shall see!

Launch threads:
Yaogan-30 Group 01
Yaogan-30 Group 02
Yaogan-30 Group 03
Yaogan-30 Group 04
Yaogan-30 Group 05
Yaogan-30 Group 06
Yaogan-30 Group 07
Yaogan-30 Group 08
Yaogan-30 Group 09
Yaogan-30 Group 10

[zubenelgenubi]

Hypothetical schedule through the end of the year for Xichang launches from LC 2 and 3:

China launch schedule

2021

September 23-25 - ?? - CZ-3B/G? - XSLC, LC3

October 16-18 - ?? - CZ-3B/G? - XSLC, LC2

November 2-4 - ?? - CZ-3B/G? - XSLC, LC3

November 26-28 - ?? - CZ-3B/G? - XSLC, LC2

December 13-15 - ?? - CZ-2D - XSLC, LC3

December 29-January 1, 2022 - Tianji Guganwang Gaogui (×2) - CZ-3B/G3 - XSLC, LC2

TBD? TBD September 20 September 23? - Yaogan-30 Group-11, Tianqi-? "Yan'an-1" - CZ-2C (Y49) - XSLC, LC3?

TBD July 5 (or 6) - Tianhui-3 (GEOSAR) - CZ-3B/G3 - XSLC, LC?
thread

Changes on May 6
Changes on June 11
Changes on June 19
Changes on June 22
Changes on June 29
Changes on July 1
Changes on July 2
Changes on August 1
zubenelgenubi

[Satori]

Can anyone check for NOTAM's for tomorrow from Xichang?

Thank you!

[zubenelgenubi]

New thread for imminent CZ-3B launch from Xichang.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Can anyone check for NOTAM's for tomorrow from Xichang?

Thank you!

Nothing so far as I just checked.

[zubenelgenubi]

No further word about this launch.