Author Topic: Reuse milestones (Read 41225 times)

Robotbeat · « **Reply #100 on:** 02/20/2023 02:48 pm »

Quote from: alugobi on 01/20/2023 04:20 pm

Musk said it, and they're probably not going to hit that number, so you have two reasons for the inevitable gratuitous criticism that's surely to follow at year's end.

They said 60 last year and got to 61, more than 99% of what poll voters on this SpaceX-friendly site voted for.

I expected 37.

I don’t think 100 is out of the picture at all. If they need to get additional approvals, then that’s what they’ll do.

alugobi · « **Reply #101 on:** 02/20/2023 04:15 pm »

60 and 61 were December 28 and 29.

They might get 100, if all the stars and payloads line up. Still, 40 more will be remarkable. It's not being critical to be wary of this particular prediction.

Whatever it is, numbers don't really matter; they're the launch leader and their service has settled into a reliable, dependable, capable state of affairs that is the envy of the competition.

Robotbeat · « **Reply #102 on:** 02/20/2023 05:47 pm »

Quote from: alugobi on 02/20/2023 04:15 pm

60 and 61 were December 28 and 29.

They might get 100, if all the stars and payloads line up. Still, 40 more will be remarkable. It's not being critical to be wary of this particular prediction.

Whatever it is, numbers don't really matter; they're the launch leader and their service has settled into a reliable, dependable, capable state of affairs that is the envy of the competition.

So far this year, they're on track for 85 Falcon launches. If they increase their overall launch rate by a small amount, they'll beat 100 this year.

Again, I was wary of 60. Very wary. I was proven very wrong. We're in the exponential part of the growth curve for launch rates, or at least not yet at a plateau. F9 (and Falcon Heavy, which is starting to become a regular thing) has not stopped growing in launch rate. Starship will almost certainly get 2 orbital flight attempts this year, and 5 is not out of the question. (We have B7 complete, B9 with SN25 nearly complete, and B10 nearing completion, with parts for B11 and B12 and B13 and even B14 already spotted... and this assumes no recovery.)

I wouldn't say the odds are like 90% or even necessarily over 50%... But we were basically all dismissive of 60 in 2022, and this would be a smaller relative growth rate than 2021 (32 launches) to 2022 (61).

niwax · « **Reply #103 on:** 02/20/2023 08:49 pm »

Quote from: Robotbeat on 02/20/2023 05:47 pm

Quote from: alugobi on 02/20/2023 04:15 pm
60 and 61 were December 28 and 29.

They might get 100, if all the stars and payloads line up. Still, 40 more will be remarkable. It's not being critical to be wary of this particular prediction.

Whatever it is, numbers don't really matter; they're the launch leader and their service has settled into a reliable, dependable, capable state of affairs that is the envy of the competition.
So far this year, they're on track for 85 Falcon launches. If they increase their overall launch rate by a small amount, they'll beat 100 this year.

Again, I was wary of 60. Very wary. I was proven very wrong. We're in the exponential part of the growth curve for launch rates, or at least not yet at a plateau. F9 (and Falcon Heavy, which is starting to become a regular thing) has not stopped growing in launch rate. Starship will almost certainly get 2 orbital flight attempts this year, and 5 is not out of the question. (We have B7 complete, B9 with SN25 nearly complete, and B10 nearing completion, with parts for B11 and B12 and B13 and even B14 already spotted... and this assumes no recovery.)

I wouldn't say the odds are like 90% or even necessarily over 50%... But we were basically all dismissive of 60 in 2022, and this would be a smaller relative growth rate than 2021 (32 launches) to 2022 (61).

There are a lot of interesting breadcrumbs to follow here. For example, the top 5 pad turnarounds are now firmly at 60/year *from the same pad*, and two of those happened in the first 40 days of this year. Regardless of the actual number this year, they will demonstrate an astounding capability. If nothing else, in finding some $4 billion of yearly business on a $800 million rocket, never mind Starlink.