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https://twitter.com/raul74cz/status/1560307863830028293

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LHA map for #Starlink Group 4-27 from CCSFS SLC-40 NET 19 Aug 19:24 UTC, alternatively 20 to 26 Aug based on NOTMAR/NOTAMs. B1062.9 planned landing with roughly estimated fairing recovery approx. 656km downrange. Stage2 debris reentry in eastern Pacific. bit.do/LHA19
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This seems caught up somewhere between 'don't bet against Elon' and it'll happen, just on 'Elon time'.

My prediction is either it happens, just with a 90% of losing starship on re-entry, or they switch to a F9/FH.
Well, think of it this way.  If they still don't have EDL down by this launch...they going to have some issues with HLS's needs and all those tanker flights.......

I would hope EDL would be working by this time or HLS is going to the right.
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As expected with the delay, here's a cancel-and-replace NGA notice.

Quote from: NGA
181657Z AUG 22
NAVAREA IV 826/22(11).
GULF OF MEXICO.
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS:
   A. 201840Z TO 201910Z, 210950Z TO 211020Z,
      AND 211815Z TO 211845Z AUG
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      28-51.00N 080-00.79W, 29-02.45N 080-13.80W,
      28-51.00N 080-26.81W, 28-39.53N 080-13.80W.
   B. 201835Z TO 201905Z, 210955Z TO 211025Z,
      AND 211815Z TO 211845Z AUG IN AREA BOUND BY
       29-48.00N 080-26.87W, 29-59.45N 080-40.02W,
       29-48.00N 080-53.15W, 29-36.53N 080-40.02W,
   C. 201830Z TO 201900Z, 21100Z TO 211030Z,
       AND 211805Z TO 211835Z AUG IN AREA BOUND BY
      30-55.02N 080-01.67W, 31-06.47N 080-15.00W,
      30-55.02N 080-28.32W, 30-43.50N 080-15.00W,
   D. 201855Z TO 201925Z AND 211010Z TO 211040Z AUG
      IN AREA BOUND BY
       29-28.43N 084-12.00W, 29-16.96N 083-58.92W,
      29-05.51N 084-12.00W, 29-16.97N 084-25.07W.
   E. 201855Z TO 201925Z AND 211000Z TO 211030Z AUG
       IN THE AREA BOUND BY
      28-17.45N 083-54.00W, 28-06.00N 083-41.03W,
      27-54.53N 083-54.00W, 28-06.00N 084-06.95W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA IV 821/22.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 211945Z AUG 22
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https://twitter.com/cosmicalchief/status/1560320584512413696

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Some tooling already being moved into the Starfactory. Not sure what jig this is for yet but we're working on IDing it. 😜
#Starbase #Starship #SpaceX
📸 Me for WAI Media @FelixSchlang
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This seems caught up somewhere between 'don't bet against Elon' and it'll happen, just on 'Elon time'.

My prediction is either it happens, just with a 90% of losing starship on re-entry, or they switch to a F9/FH.
I presume you mean 90% chance of losing the Starship during its first dozen launches or so.  They will lose a few while they work out the kinks in EDL, but after that?  They lost a few F9s while learning how to return them, but now they've recovered the F9 booster from 62 launches in a row, and over a hundred times in all.  I see no reason to believe it will be otherwise with Starship.
emphasis mine
I do.  Orbital vs. sub orbital velocities and heating for one.  The complexity between Starship/SH and F-9 is staggering IMO.

Yes. I also suspect it is going to be difficult.  SpaceX may not have successfully landed a Starship by 2024.  But as long as the launch to orbit is reliable, and as long as they are recovering the booster, that wouldn't stop this flight from occurring.

It will be just a combination of launching a payload and another experiment/attempt to recover the second stage.
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Quote
Wow, this is I believe the very 1st firmed Starship GEO communication satellite launch contract!?
I would say that Turksat 6A2 was earlier and firmish (with option on other LV).

I had to check what the “Turksat 6A2” deal was and it turns out that was only mentioned in passing by a Turkish official in 2019 when Shotwell visited Turkey. Given that nothing has been heard of about this satellite since then (unlike Turksat 6A, the 1st Turkish-built GEO comsat), I’m not sure the plans were ever secure - if the project still exists.

This one is something different - even the Japanese version of the press release only mentions Starship.

This one: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44188.msg1945075#msg1945075
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Quote
Wow, this is I believe the very 1st firmed Starship GEO communication satellite launch contract!?
I would say that Turksat 6A2 was earlier and firmish (with option on other LV).

I had to check what the “Turksat 6A2” deal was and it turns out that was only mentioned in passing by a Turkish official in 2019 when Shotwell visited Turkey. Given that nothing has been heard of about this satellite since then (unlike Turksat 6A, the 1st Turkish-built GEO comsat), I’m not sure the plans were ever secure - if the project still exists.

This one is something different - even the Japanese version of the press release only mentions Starship.
Turksat has an active long term MoU dating back to the Turksat 5th generation series with SpaceX which allows for the switch to Starship for current and future contracts. I read it as following Starship's certification flights they might consider firming payloads into contracts.
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This seems caught up somewhere between 'don't bet against Elon' and it'll happen, just on 'Elon time'.

My prediction is either it happens, just with a 90% of losing starship on re-entry, or they switch to a F9/FH.
I presume you mean 90% chance of losing the Starship during its first dozen launches or so.  They will lose a few while they work out the kinks in EDL, but after that?  They lost a few F9s while learning how to return them, but now they've recovered the F9 booster from 62 launches in a row, and over a hundred times in all.  I see no reason to believe it will be otherwise with Starship.
emphasis mine
I do.  Orbital vs. sub orbital velocities and heating for one.  The complexity between Starship/SH and F-9 is staggering IMO.
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I presume you mean 90% chance of losing the Starship during its first dozen launches or so.  They will lose a few while they work out the kinks in EDL, but after that?  They lost a few F9s while learning how to return them, but now they've recovered the F9 booster from 62 launches in a row, and over a hundred times in all.  I see no reason to believe it will be otherwise with Starship.
A return from GTO will have much higher reentry heating, so this flight will probably be the first flight to test higher energy returns.

I suspect a decent amount of the unknown unknowns in the program have been ironed out at this point, but there are still a ton of things that need to come together before SpaceX can start launching high value customer payloads.
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Does anyone know when they are going to launch the first Starship/Superheavy?  Any updates as to an approximate time.
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