The end of Dnepr ?

[Nicolas PILLET]

A surprising Interfax report posted by JimO on FPSpace :

Dnepr Space Program To Stop In 2011

Moscow Interfax-AVN Online in English 1130 GMT 30 Dec 10

MOSCOW. Dec 30 (Interfax-AVN) - The Russian Defense Ministry does not think it expedient to carry on the Dnepr space program and will not assign a single RS-20 'Satan' rocket for the program in 2011, an aerospace industry representative told Interfax-AVN on Thursday.

"Ten test and training launches of RS-12M 'Topol', RS-18 and RS-24 'Yars' intercontinental ballistic missiles are planned for 2011. Meanwhile, there will be no RS-20 launches, including those in the Dnepr program," he said.
   
He said the Defense Ministry called inefficient the disposal of RS-20B missiles in space launches. "It is much easer to scrap the missiles," he said.
   
Earlier reports said that four Dnepr rockets would be launched from a launch site of the Dombarovskaya division of the Strategic Rocket Forces in the Orenburg region. A cluster launch of eight satellites, including Ukraine's Sych 2 and BPA-2, Nigeria's NigeriaSat-X and NigeriaSat-2, Turkey's Rasat, U.S. AprizeSat-5 and AprizeSat-6 and Italy's EduSat, was planned for the first quarter of 2011.
   
It was planned to launch the South Korean radar satellite KompSat5 in June-July. Two Dnepr launches were scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2011, including one to deliver the Mikhailo Lomonosov satellite and the cluster launch of several satellites, among them South Korean STSAT-3.
   
Cosmotrans international space company General Director Vladimir Andreyev told Interfax-AVN in September 2010 that the company hoped to use RS-20 missiles in the Dnepr space program until 2027. He said about 70 rockets would be launched.
   
The Russian-Ukrainian rocket Dnepr was based on the world's most powerful delivery vehicle, RS-20 (NATO codename SS-18 'Satan'), with high thrust and reliability characteristics. The rocket weighs 211 tonnes, has the diameter of three meters and the length of 34.6 meters.
   
Sixteen Dnepr launches have been made since April 199, including twelve from Baikonur and four from the Orenburg region.

[Satori]

I found this really strange.

On the ISC Kosmotras page we can find this "New Information - Two cluster launch planned for 2011 and 2012. In both there is the possibility of placing on the head of the missile additional payload. ISC Kosmotras invites interested parties to participate in the discussion of these launches."

[Danderman]

Its not strange. The Defense Ministry wants more money.

[iamlucky13]

Its not strange. The Defense Ministry wants more money.

I thought the Dnepr had a low enough cost they could probably charge more money and get it?

[patchfree]

Its not strange. The Defense Ministry wants more money.

It could be the correct interpretation. Anyway the decision doesn't depend on the Defense Ministry only because Ukrainia is largely involved in such launches. So the decision to cease Dniepr use in space launches could only be taken at the russian government level, and the trend is not in that direction at present with the new ukrainian President and the "warm-up" of the russian-ukrainian relations.

[Danderman]

Its not strange. The Defense Ministry wants more money.

I thought the Dnepr had a low enough cost they could probably charge more money and get it?

If your question is whether there is enough margin between cost and price for Kosmotras to pay more rubles, the answer is probably yes, and the launches will probably happen.

[Danderman]

Its not strange. The Defense Ministry wants more money.

It could be the correct interpretation. Anyway the decision doesn't depend on the Defense Ministry only because Ukrainia is largely involved in such launches. So the decision to cease Dniepr use in space launches could only be taken at the russian government level, and the trend is not in that direction at present with the new ukrainian President and the "warm-up" of the russian-ukrainian relations.

The Ukrainian government has nothing to do with Dnepr launches. Kosmotras is partially owned by Yuzhnoye, though, so there is an Ukrainian interest in the project.

The Defense Ministry is the Russian governmental level, its is the ministry, after all, and can stop the launches. I hereby predict that the launches will happen, since the statement by the Defense Ministry concerned an economic issue, not a policy issue. If they had stated that they needed the Dneprs for military use, that may be a different story.

[simonbp]

If they had stated that they needed the Dneprs for military use, that may be a different story.

If they need Dneprs for military use, you'd better start ducking and covering!!!!

[osiossim]

This situation is extreamly complex and will have very complicated results for both ISC Kosmotras, current & potantial customers and for the Russian side in general. There are several satellites waiting to be launched for a long time and now the Russian Governmental organization is threatening the company not to perform future launches.

Many small satellites, their manufacturers and the customers are depended on the company and Dnepr. Because there is basically no competition in this area and I do not even count Rockot, Falcon-1, PSLV, Soyuz-2 and Vega. Rockot is far too expensive and not interested in cluster launches due to commercial reasons. The rest is still question mark for many other aspects.

If the Russian Government wants to replace the company who operates RS-20, either they need to perform the launch campaigns which are on the queue or refund the money back. However, even the refund and assigning different commercial company to replace ISC Kosmotras will not solve the problem and will not clear the "Russian mentaly of making business" image that is already imposed by Russians themselves.

On the bottom line, even if NASA is depend on Soyuz, whoever dont? Russians are aware of this fact and want to maximize their profit and increase the margins.

As a result, I belive the launches on the queue will be performed with some delays either by ISC Kosmotras or by another entity. But the future price of Dnepr will be somewhat more expensive the Rockot, who is actually controlled by Khrunichev! The problem will occur on the customer side and the future customers will have to wait on the ground for a long time like Theos, Rapideye and Prisma...

[osiossim]

DubaiSat-2 imaging satellite ready for blast off


http://www.thenational.ae/business/technology/dubaisat-2-imaging-satellite-ready-for-blast-off

Seems like Kosmotras does not care about the news in the media.

[osiossim]

Iridium Signs Contract With ISC Kosmotras for Iridium Next Launch Provider


http://investor.iridium.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=586212

[Danderman]

It would be nice if this thread would have a different name.

[Salo]

Only Russian:
http://www.roscosmos.ru/main.php?id=2&nid=17402

Computer translation:

Asked about the prospects of "Dnepr", in which recycling is carried out by the start of heavy intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) SS-20 with the payload into space, Vladimir Popovkin said that "we are with the National Space Agency of Ukraine decided to fault detection missiles with the assistance of Ukrainian specialists. "The aim of this work - "the determination of the status of the material."
"It is done, based on its results will be decided, - said Vladimir Popovkin. - In view of persistent requests of the Ukrainian side agreed to meet start-up" Dnepr "with a Ukrainian satellite" Sich-2 ". It is a work in progress."

[osiossim]

NEC signs Contract with ISCK for Asnaro 1&2 launch;

http://www.spacenews.com/earth_observation/110627-japan-delays-ansaro-year.html