Shiyan-10 - CZ-3B/G2 - Xichang - September 27, 2021 (08:20 UTC)

[Josh_from_Canada]

This image was shared on Weibo (later deleted) showing a CZ-3B rocket getting ready for flight at Pad 3. No info is known about the payload.

edit: I've added cropped up versions for each of the shots.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

A2476/21 NOTAMN
Q) ZPKM/QRTCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/2815N10202E006
A) ZPKM B) 2109260800 C) 2109260830
E) A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED CENTERED AT N2815E10202
WITH RADIUS OF 10KM. VERTICAL LIMITS:GND-UNL. ALL ACFT ARE
FORBIDDEN TO FLY INTO THE TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA.
F) GND G) UNL

A2477/21 NOTAMN
Q) ZXXX/QRTCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/2426N10547E021
A) ZPKM ZGZU B) 2109260802 C) 2109260831
E) A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY:
N241728E1060812-N244609E1054103-N243528E1052738-N240650E1055447,BAC
K TO START. ALL ACFT ARE FORBIDDEN TO FLY INTO THE TEMPORARY
RESTRICTED AREA. VERTICAL LIMITS:GND-UNL.
F) GND G) UNL

A2478/21 NOTAMN
Q) ZJSA/QRTCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/1532N11326E033
A) ZJSA B) 2109260815 C) 2109260910
E) A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY:
N152703E1135919-N160535E1132819-N153849E1125301-N150022E1132403
BACK TO START. ALL ACFT ARE FORBIDDEN TO FLY INTO THE TEMPORARY
RESTRICTED AREA. VERTICAL LIMITS:GND-UNL.
F) GND G) UNL

https://twitter.com/duandang/status/1440881760582074372?s=21

Can someone check the inclination of this path and whether its plane matches any Chinese satellites in the Beidou system or in the 63.4 deg. orbits?

[Josh_from_Canada]

Can someone check the inclination of this path and whether its plane matches any Chinese satellites in the Beidou system or in the 63.4 deg. orbits?

The NOTAM over Mainland China lines up with previous Beidou launches in location but not time, the one over the South China Sea is further southeast then what the Beidou missions used.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Can someone check the inclination of this path and whether its plane matches any Chinese satellites in the Beidou system or in the 63.4 deg. orbits?

The NOTAM over Mainland China lines up with previous Beidou launches in location but not time, the one over the South China Sea is further southeast then what the Beidou missions used.

Have you checked the BDS-3 IGSO launches?

[Conexion Espacial]

Can someone check the inclination of this path and whether its plane matches any Chinese satellites in the Beidou system or in the 63.4 deg. orbits?

The NOTAM over Mainland China lines up with previous Beidou launches in location but not time, the one over the South China Sea is further southeast then what the Beidou missions used.

Have you checked the BDS-3 IGSO launches?

That launch was the one you mentioned that was launched without any NOTAM available?
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=47092.msg2011249#msg2011249

[russianhalo117]

Can someone check the inclination of this path and whether its plane matches any Chinese satellites in the Beidou system or in the 63.4 deg. orbits?

The NOTAM over Mainland China lines up with previous Beidou launches in location but not time, the one over the South China Sea is further southeast then what the Beidou missions used.

Have you checked the BDS-3 IGSO launches?

Would have to verify further but lines up roughly with a BDS-2 bird at quick glance.

[Josh_from_Canada]

Can someone check the inclination of this path and whether its plane matches any Chinese satellites in the Beidou system or in the 63.4 deg. orbits?

The NOTAM over Mainland China lines up with previous Beidou launches in location but not time, the one over the South China Sea is further southeast then what the Beidou missions used.

Have you checked the BDS-3 IGSO launches?

The Beidou-3 I2-S launch used similar drop zones to the MEO launches while the operational satellites went eastward into a standard GTO orbit. The CZ-3C launches of Beidou-3 I1-S and Beidou-3 M3-S also happened to use similar drop zones. So this launch is likely something different.

edit:

Would have to verify further but lines up roughly with a BDS-2 bird at quick glance.

I just checked and the South China Sea NOTAMS don't line up.

[Closer to Space]

Could this correspond to a launch into Molniya orbit?

Just a hypothesis, the Chinese could do like the Soviets did with their US-K satellites, and send early warning satellites not only in geostationary orbit, but also in Molniya orbit to cover the northern areas.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Could this correspond to a launch into Molniya orbit?

Just a hypothesis, the Chinese could do like the Soviets did with their US-K satellites, and send early warning satellites not only in geostationary orbit, but also in Molniya orbit to cover the northern areas.

It is possible, although this launch profile lines more up with 55 deg. inclination. IGSO seems plausible though.

[input~2]

Flight path similar as for BD M launches

[Closer to Space]

Interesting...

https://twitter.com/PhilLeafCN/status/1440955000218214403

Someone said it might be BDS-4s.

[tehwkd]

27th

A2487/21 NOTAMN
Q) ZPKM/QRTCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/2815N10202E006
A) ZPKM B) 2109270800 C) 2109270830
E) A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED CENTERED AT N2815E10202
WITH RADIUS OF 10KM. VERTICAL LIMITS:GND-UNL. ALL ACFT ARE
FORBIDDEN TO FLY INTO THE TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA.
F) GND G) UNL

A2488/21 NOTAMN
Q) ZXXX/QRTCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/2426N10547E021
A) ZPKM ZGZU B) 2109270802 C) 2109270831
E) A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY:
N241728E1060812-N244609E1054103-N243528E1052738-N240650E1055447,BAC
K TO START. ALL ACFT ARE FORBIDDEN TO FLY INTO THE TEMPORARY
RESTRICTED AREA. VERTICAL LIMITS:GND-UNL.
F) GND G) UNL


A2489/21 NOTAMN
Q) ZJSA/QRTCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/1532N11326E033
A) ZJSA B) 2109270815 C) 2109270910
E) A TEMPORARY RESTRICTED AREA ESTABLISHED BOUNDED BY:
N152703E1135919-N160535E1132819-N153849E1125301-N150022E1132403
BACK TO START. ALL ACFT ARE FORBIDDEN TO FLY INTO THE TEMPORARY
RESTRICTED AREA. VERTICAL LIMITS:GND-UNL.
F) GND G) UNL

[Conexion Espacial]

Drop zones according to the latest NOTAM

[zubenelgenubi]

Someone said it might be BDS-4s.

Part 1
A pair of new-version inclined semi-synchronous Beidou satellites?  (A pair of Beidou satellites because the launch vehicle is a CZ-3B, instead of a single Beidou satellite aboard a CZ-3C)

But different from, in satellite "model" and/or newer technologies, the BD-3M satellites?   (Analog to car make and model)

Part 2
I forgot to ask at the time; what is this?

Could it be connected to this launch?

Do we know that the LV now stacked is a CZ-3B and not a CZ-3C?

China launch schedule

2021

?? - CZ-3C - XSLC - Beidou-3 Buwang-1

September 10, 2020

Part 3
Hypothetical schedule through the end of the year for Xichang launches from LC 2 and 3:

China launch schedule

2021

September 27 23-25 26 - Shiyan-10 - CZ-3B/G2 - XSLC, LC3 - 08:20 ~08:10

October 16-18 - ?? - CZ-3B/G? - XSLC, LC2

November 2-4 - ?? - CZ-3B/G? - XSLC, LC3

November 26-28 - ?? - CZ-3B/G? - XSLC, LC2

December 13-15 - ?? - CZ-2D - XSLC, LC3

December 29-January 1, 2022 - Tianji Guganwang Gaogui (×2) - CZ-3B/G3 - XSLC, LC2

TBD? TBD September 20 September 23? - Yaogan-30 Group-11, Tianqi-? "Yan'an-1" - CZ-2C (Y49) - XSLC, LC3?
thread

TBD July 5 (or 6) - Tianhui-3 (GEOSAR) - CZ-3B/G3 - XSLC, LC?
thread

Changes on May 6
Changes on June 11
Changes on June 19
Changes on June 22
Changes on June 29
Changes on July 1
Changes on July 2
Changes on August 1
Changes on September 23
Changes on September 27
zubenelgenubi

[zubenelgenubi]

An orbital launch "three-fer" on September 27 UTC:
Jilin-1 Gaofen-02F aboard a Kuaizhou-1A from Jiuquan;
This launch;
And Landsat 9 aboard an Atlas V from Vandenberg.

[Conexion Espacial]

And the launch should have been done at this time, this is a picture of the rocket before launch.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Liftoff has apparently occurred per local reports of ground shaking.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

From up close:

https://twitter.com/Cosmic_Penguin/status/1442408964528893958?s=19

[Satori]

Launch took place at 0820UTC. Launcher Y81.

[Satori]

Cargo apparently is the Test Satellite n.º 10.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Cargo apparently is the Test Satellite n.º 10.

Yes, but the message mentioning Shiyan 10 has been deleted for now. Let's see what's going on...

[Galactic Penguin SST]

From https://m.weibo.cn/detail/4686089002424941:

[Satori]

Still no official confirmation of launch success?

[Conexion Espacial]

Still no official confirmation of launch success?

Nothing yet, it's weird, I thought it would be delayed because it has the Yz-1S upper stage but it seems it doesn't, it's starting to be rare.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Still no official confirmation of launch success?

Nothing yet, it's weird, I thought it would be delayed because it has the Yz-1S upper stage but it seems it doesn't, it's starting to be rare.

Well they don't specially mark the usage of upper stages on the CZ-3 series' exterior nowadays so it's still possible.

Time to check for US orbital tracking data...

[Galactic Penguin SST]

More photos from https://m.weibo.cn/detail/4686106433945731 - still not sure what's going on (could be use of upper stage or...something else).

18SPCS has tracking data for KZ-1A launch, but not this one yet.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Apparently observations of an object in night sky fitting with rocket stage venting fuel has been observed over Sydney Australia after 08:40 UTC, which is under the launch track. That means the rocket was still functioning by that time.

https://twitter.com/football_roos/status/1442453715496026119?s=19

[Satori]

Was that a rumor on 9ifly about a possible problem with the satellite?

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Was that a rumor on 9ifly about a possible problem with the satellite?

No, I just take a look at the rumours and they said:

* "The orbit's a bit special, be patient"
* "CALT's job is done"

That probably means either there's an upper stage on top not built by CALT, or it will self-propel itself to its final orbit.
If it's going to something like inclined geosynchronous or Molniya orbit with orbit raising at apogee, the launch sequence is gonna be 5+ hours long.

[ZachS09]

I saw some nitrogen tetroxide leaking from one of the boosters in the launch closeup video. Is that normal?

[Galactic Penguin SST]

I saw some nitrogen tetroxide leaking from one of the boosters in the launch closeup video. Is that normal?

Normal venting of tanks for regulating tank/pipe pressure IIRC. For those using hypergolic propellant you can also see this on rockets like the Titan or the Proton.

[Liss]

The 9ifly topic is gone.

[Satori]

More than seven hours have gone since the launch and still no official information about it whatsoever, and also no objects tracked in orbit... well...

[input~2]

Launch video

[Alter Sachse]

More than seven hours have gone since the launch and still no official information about it whatsoever, and also no objects tracked in orbit... well...

That does not sound good.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

We have first orbital elements from this LM-3B launch via 18SPCS:

2021-087A/49258: 177 x 40104 km x 51.04 deg.

That...doesn't look like anything out of the ordinary for an inclined geosynchronous transfer orbit.🤔🤔🤔

[jcm]

We have first orbital elements from this LM-3B launch via 18SPCS:

2021-087A/49258: 177 x 40104 km x 51.04 deg.

That...doesn't look like anything out of the ordinary for an inclined geosynchronous transfer orbit.🤔🤔🤔

However: 51 deg is a little lower inc than the 54-55 deg used for previous Chinese IGSO launches.
Also, they used the YZ stage to reach that apogee, we'd expect stage 3 to be in a 18000-19000 km apogee
orbit if that is the case today; but if no YZ stage was used, that's a new profile for the CZ-3B.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

We have first orbital elements from this LM-3B launch via 18SPCS:

2021-087A/49258: 177 x 40104 km x 51.04 deg.

That...doesn't look like anything out of the ordinary for an inclined geosynchronous transfer orbit.🤔🤔🤔

However: 51 deg is a little lower inc than the 54-55 deg used for previous Chinese IGSO launches.
Also, they used the YZ stage to reach that apogee, we'd expect stage 3 to be in a 18000-19000 km apogee
orbit if that is the case today; but if no YZ stage was used, that's a new profile for the CZ-3B.

The thing is that the Beidou connection is tenuous at best (I'm not even sure those claiming it are basing on anything other than NOTAMs), there was a "launch poster" leaked out about 45 minutes after launch thst called it Shiyan 10, but got deleted really quickly.

[Alter Sachse]

40000 km gives an orbital period of 12 hours, similar to Molniya. (or "Oko" early warning)

[Josh_from_Canada]

An object was cataloged in orbit but no official confirmation has been released. Maybe the payload failed after separation similar to the ChinaSat-18 spacecraft. If a second object isn't cataloged, maybe it didn't separate from the rocket at all. Launch vehicle failure can be ruled out if there's a CZ-3B launch in October. I doubt there was a YZ-1 upper stage used on this launch as there was no markings for it on the second stage. We're going to have to wait and see if this object preforms any maneuvers or not.

edit: A second object, 49259, was cataloged in a 209 km x 39591 km x 51.35° orbit. This shows that the launch vehicle did it's job and no YZ-1 was used.

[GELORD]

"China launch poster"

[Alter Sachse]

"China launch poster"

390. "Long March" launch

[Conexion Espacial]

Does that mean that only one object has been found after the launch? maybe the satellite did not separate?
https://twitter.com/Cosmic_Penguin/status/1442629886703665154

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Does that mean that only one object has been found after the launch? maybe the satellite did not separate?
https://twitter.com/Cosmic_Penguin/status/1442629886703665154[/size]

No, there are 2 objects, see a few posts above about the other.

We have first orbital elements from this LM-3B launch via 18SPCS:

2021-087A/49258: 177 x 40104 km x 51.04 deg.

That...doesn't look like anything out of the ordinary for an inclined geosynchronous transfer orbit.🤔🤔🤔

[zubenelgenubi]

Re: Successful launch, spacecraft is a partial or total loss?

Andrew Jones at SpaceNews had the same thought, reporting on the two Chinese Sept 27 launches.

If there is no significant change observed in the spacecraft orbital elements in the coming days, we'll know if it's alive or dead.

Zhongxing-18 launch thread (perhaps the same situation: geocomm satellite 🛰 never shifted from its initial GTO)

[Josh_from_Canada]

Was this launch the first in the world to target a Super Synchronous IGTO (Inclined GTO)?

edit: I'm thinking this type of orbit is used for satellites aiming for a 63° Geosynchronous orbit. The higher apogee allows fuel to be saved in changing the inclination just like other Super Synchronous GTO missions. Increasing the orbital inclination from a GTO launch has happened before with the Beidou-3 IGSO satellites. The 55° launch azimuth is the furthest non Polar/SSO that can be reached from Xichang as a 63° launch azimuth would involve dropping stages on Vietnam.

[zubenelgenubi]

I don't know (or forgot): How does one distinguish between a CZ-3B/G2 and G3?

[Galactic Penguin SST]

I don't know (or forgot): How does one distinguish between a CZ-3B/G2 and G3?

G3 has the larger payload fairing than G2 (4.2 m diameter vs 4.0 m)
G1 uses 3.75 m diameter dual launch fairings for 2nd generation BDS navigation satellite launches in 2012.
G5 is a version optimised for LEO/SSO missions.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

https://twitter.com/chen_rspyc/status/1442779400009830402?s=21

[tehwkd]

http://www.news.cn/2021-09/28/c_1127913943.htm

[Galactic Penguin SST]

http://www.news.cn/2021-09/28/c_1127913943.htm

So the official statement is that the LM-3B flight was normal till spacecraft separation, however "there was an abnormal situation with the satellite *during* the launch process" and the cause is under investigation.

[input~2]

Object A:
epoch 09/27 16:32Z: 177 x 40105 km x 51.04° (revolution number = 3)
epoch 09/27 21:55Z: 177 x 40105 km x 51.04° (revolution number = 3)
epoch 09/28 12:16Z: 177 x 40104 km x 51.06° (revolution number = 5)

Object B:
epoch 09/27 15:41Z: 209 x 39592 km x 51.35° (revolution number = 3)
epoch 09/27 22:00Z: 217 x 39606 km x 51.40° (revolution number = 4)
epoch 09/28 11:05Z: 216 x 39593 km x 51.40° (revolution number = 5)

"During the rocket flight, the satellite operating conditions were abnormal": could it be a problem at spacecraft separation?

[jcm]

http://www.news.cn/2021-09/28/c_1127913943.htm

So the official statement is that the LM-3B flight was normal till spacecraft separation, however "there was an abnormal situation with the satellite *during* the launch process" and the cause is under investigation.

Wondering if it could be a payload fairing issue? Internal vibration for example as on recent Ariane 5 flights, but worse...

[Conexion Espacial]

NASASpaceFlight article on the launch where it mentions the failure of the satellite after it reached orbit:
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2021/09/shiyan-10-fails-in-orbit-after-launch/

[slobber91]

Upper stage burn or venting was apparently observed from Australia.  Somewhat unusual looking for an engine plume.

[edkyle99]

http://www.news.cn/2021-09/28/c_1127913943.htm

So the official statement is that the LM-3B flight was normal till spacecraft separation, however "there was an abnormal situation with the satellite *during* the launch process" and the cause is under investigation.

Wondering if it could be a payload fairing issue? Internal vibration for example as on recent Ariane 5 flights, but worse...

The "during" is key.  A launch vehicle's mission is to deliver its payload to a planned orbit in operational condition.  Will we ever know the satellite and/or launch vehicle failure mode?

 - Ed Kyle

[Conexion Espacial]

http://www.news.cn/2021-09/28/c_1127913943.htm

So the official statement is that the LM-3B flight was normal till spacecraft separation, however "there was an abnormal situation with the satellite *during* the launch process" and the cause is under investigation.

Wondering if it could be a payload fairing issue? Internal vibration for example as on recent Ariane 5 flights, but worse...

The "during" is key.  A launch vehicle's mission is to deliver its payload to a planned orbit in operational condition.  Will we ever know the satellite and/or launch vehicle failure mode?

 - Ed Kyle

That's right, many of us thought that the error was in the satellite after separation since the first reports said that the rocket worked normally, but if this one says that it was "during" the launch, it is possible that some error in the rocket led to a bad separation or damage to the satellite, as jcm says, maybe the fairing, the separation of the satellite or something like that.

[Alter Sachse]

It may be, the satellite was separated as scheduled, but it could not be activated. After many attempts, it was abandoned.
So it took hours before any information was given.

[input~2]

Space-Track has named Object A as "SHIYAN 10 (SY-10)" and Object B as "CZ-3B R/B". No orbit change observed for both objects as yet.

[input~2]

The issue seems to revolve around the satellite battery.

[Conexion Espacial]

The same is being said in the 9ifly thread which is already active again.
https://9ifly.spacety.com/thread-95339-1-1.html


And this has also been commented
https://twitter.com/ClosertoSpace/status/1444617227513253890?s=19

[Steven Pietrobon]

English translation of above tweet.

"Three hypotheses have been put forward:

- The satellite turned off itself during launch
- The launcher resonated with the satellite
- Low and high winds destroyed the satellite"

[input~2]

The issue seems to revolve around the satellite battery.

The same is being said in the 9ifly thread which is already active again.
https://9ifly.spacety.com/thread-95339-1-1.html

That thread is not accessible any more

[Conexion Espacial]

I received a comment that the Shiyan-10 satellite re-entered the Earth these days.


I was looking at the reported objects that entered the Earth but none of them mention the Shiyan-10 satellite. We will have to wait for a next TLE to know if the satellite entered the Earth or still remains in orbit.

[input~2]

I received a comment that the Shiyan-10 satellite re-entered the Earth these days.

From latest TLE available at this time:
At epoch Oct 6, 21:11 UTC "SY-10"(2021-087A) had not re-entered, was in in 173 x 40101 km x 51.08°

[Liss]

Both objects have downward trends in their perigees, so natural reentry is expected but not so soon -- many weeks for SY-10 and months for R/B.

[SL9X-8033]

SY-10 recently done a orbital manuver and raised its perigee to 457km.
Now, the satellite is in an orbit of 456.9 km*39,934.0 km, with an inclination of 51.1°.

[Conexion Espacial]

SY-10 recently done a orbital manuver and raised ite perigee to 457km.
Now, the satellite is in an orbit of 456.9 km*39,934.0 km, with an inclination of 51.1°.

So the propulsion system still works, so the satellite did not "shut down" after the separation as some indicated, unless this and other problems have been solved from the ground controls.

[daedalus1]

SY-10 recently done a orbital manuver and raised ite perigee to 457km.
Now, the satellite is in an orbit of 456.9 km*39,934.0 km, with an inclination of 51.1°.

So the propulsion system still works, so the satellite did not "shut down" after the separation as some indicated, unless this and other problems have been solved from the ground controls.

They might have used the station keeping thrusters.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

SY-10 recently done a orbital manuver and raised its perigee to 457km.
Now, the satellite is in an orbit of 456.9 km*39,934.0 km, with an inclination of 51.1°.

BTW this can be be collaborated with some Chinese rumours today (from “insiders” apparently and independent from the 18SPCS data) that the satellite got recovered (e.g. this).

[Conexion Espacial]

Now.... we may have an official confirmation from CASC indicating that the mission was a "success".


More than anything I want to see that confirmation to see the information about the satellite or to see if they give details of what happened with the satellite and what were the anomalies presented.

[Conexion Espacial]

And....finally, it is a "successful" mission.

[Conexion Espacial]

So far we have only seen the image of the big red screen indicating the success of the mission as usual, now we are waiting for a statement from CASC or one of the agencies involved in the launch/satellite.

[Conexion Espacial]

So far we have only seen the image of the big red screen indicating the success of the mission as usual, now we are waiting for a statement from CASC or one of the agencies involved in the launch/satellite.

Déjà vu...the image was deleted from the original publication, so we'll have to keep waiting to see what information might come out...
https://twitter.com/hentailamb/status/1449639606576730113

[input~2]

SY-10 recently done a orbital manuver and raised its perigee to 457km.
Now, the satellite is in an orbit of 456.9 km*39,934.0 km, with an inclination of 51.1°.

Per last 2 sets of TLEs:

At epoch Oct 14, 20:19 UTC
2021-087A/49258 in 169 x 40085 km x 51.04° orbit#38

At epoch Oct 15, 15:39 UTC
2021-087A/49258 in 450 x 39927 km x 51.06° orbit#39

[tehwkd]

And....finally, it is a "successful" mission.

Weird, not seeing it on 航天见闻's weibo page.

[Conexion Espacial]

And....finally, it is a "successful" mission.

Weird, not seeing it on 航天见闻's weibo page.

It was deleted minutes later

[Josh_from_Canada]

Previous Chinese satellites launched into GTO have gotten few if any TLE updates during the orbit raising. We may have to wait more then a week until the next update.

[jcm]

And....finally, it is a "successful" mission.

Weird, not seeing it on 航天见闻's weibo page.

He was eliminated minutes later

I hope you mean "It was deleted...."
("He was eliminated" would imply the Chinese govt killed the person posting it.. ;-))

[Alter Sachse]

SY-10 recently done a orbital manuver and raised its perigee to 457km.
Now, the satellite is in an orbit of 456.9 km*39,934.0 km, with an inclination of 51.1°.

Per last 2 sets of TLEs:

At epoch Oct 14, 20:19 UTC
2021-087A/49258 in 169 x 40085 km x 51.04° orbit#38

At epoch Oct 15, 15:39 UTC
2021-087A/49258 in 450 x 39927 km x 51.06° orbit#39

October 18  51.18° 730.79 min 567x40428 km

[input~2]

At epoch Oct 18, 15:36 UTC:
2021-087A/49258 in 1106 x 40093 km x 51.13° orbit#45

[gosnold]

At epoch Oct 18, 15:36 UTC:
2021-087A/49258 in 1106 x 40093 km x 51.13° orbit#45

Still there on orbit 51. Must be phasing.

[Liss]

At epoch Oct 18, 15:36 UTC:
2021-087A/49258 in 1106 x 40093 km x 51.13° orbit#45

Still there on orbit 51. Must be phasing.

Between Feb 28 and Mar 30, 2022, Shiyan 10 transfered to a typical OTM with i=63.6°.

[Alter Sachse]

Now the satellite is in typical Molniya orbit:

Apr 07
63.60° 718.04 min 1485x38882 km

[Rondaz]

Obj. 49259 SHIYAN 10 CZ-3B R/B decay prediction: August 15, 2022 UTC 04h03mn ± 32h

https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1557098354110234628

[Rondaz]

Update: obj. 49259 SHIYAN 10 CZ-3B R/B decay prediction: August 14, 2022 UTC 21h50mn ± 17h

https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1558018041002299393

[Rondaz]

Update: obj. 49259 SHIYAN 10 CZ-3B R/B decay prediction: August 14, 2022 UTC 10h43mn ± 6h

https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1558403857885138947

[Rondaz]

Update: obj. 49259 SHIYAN 10 CZ-3B R/B decay prediction: August 14, 2022 UTC 07h04mn ± 4h

https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1558585947691929601