Author Topic: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year  (Read 177509 times)

Offline alugobi

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #720 on: 12/08/2023 04:14 pm »
Elon has tweeted again, which suggests to me that he’s got one eye on what the total for the year will be:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1733079147478495738

Quote
91st Falcon flight of 2023
... And he's counting Falcons.  He could have said 93 SpaceX launches.

100 is still possible, but IMO unlikely. What s failure, I can see the headlines now.
Musk's second confirmation of what the 100 number means.

Offline abaddon

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #721 on: 12/08/2023 04:33 pm »
The Soviet Unions launches included all of their launch vehicles.  Sure the R7 family got the most, but what about other styles of rockets?  Has F9/FH family beat the R7 family of rocket launches?
Also doesn't separate out failures; IIRC SpaceX has that beat by this point, and probably the longest stream without failures, although maybe R7 or Delta II still has the longest there?

Online Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #722 on: 12/08/2023 04:43 pm »
The Soviet Unions launches included all of their launch vehicles.  Sure the R7 family got the most, but what about other styles of rockets?  Has F9/FH family beat the R7 family of rocket launches?
Falcon so far this year has beaten the 64 or 65 launch per year maximum that the R7 family had achieved in like the 1970s or early 1980s.

 If you were going to count all the Soviet union launches in a year, you need to count all US launches in a year and possibly all US plus ally launches (as the Soviet union was nominally (stop laughing!) a bunch of countries).

Regardless, next year SpaceX could break the Cold War era total global annual launch record ALONE.
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Offline CoolScience

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #723 on: 12/08/2023 05:07 pm »
Elon has tweeted again, which suggests to me that he’s got one eye on what the total for the year will be:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1733079147478495738

Quote
91st Falcon flight of 2023
... And he's counting Falcons.  He could have said 93 SpaceX launches.

100 is still possible, but IMO unlikely. What s failure, I can see the headlines now.
Musk's second confirmation of what the 100 number means.
Is this supposed to be sarcasm? Because a statement of how many Falcon launches there have been this year does not mean that the estimate made over a year ago that said "100 orbital flights" only included Falcons. That is a completely ridiculous claim that requires ignoring both context and the literal meaning of words. An actual confirmation of what he meant would be something like "When that estimate was made I was referring to ..." I bet if asked, Musk's actual response would be something like "I don't remember, plus or minus a couple launches either way is irrelevant to the overall trend of accelerating pace of launches."

By reasonable definition the Starship test flights were launches of an orbit capable vehicle, and generally should be counted in my opinion. If you prefer counting successful flights or discounting payload free test launches that is up to you. Just don't try to claim that SpaceX definitively missed there goal, when no matter how you count it they did extremely well, and have certainly made it within reasonable margin of error. Musk's actual preference is to count equivalent mass to LEO. This is because raw launch count understates just how revolutionary the amount of stuff SpaceX is putting into space is with Falcon, and even more so understates the absurd capabilities Starship will have.

Online ZachF

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #724 on: 12/08/2023 06:24 pm »
The Soviet Unions launches included all of their launch vehicles.  Sure the R7 family got the most, but what about other styles of rockets?  Has F9/FH family beat the R7 family of rocket launches?
Falcon so far this year has beaten the 64 or 65 launch per year maximum that the R7 family had achieved in like the 1970s or early 1980s.

 If you were going to count all the Soviet union launches in a year, you need to count all US launches in a year and possibly all US plus ally launches (as the Soviet union was nominally (stop laughing!) a bunch of countries).

Regardless, next year SpaceX could break the Cold War era total global annual launch record ALONE.

The funny thing about all those Soviet launches when you dig into them, is that the majority were crappy battery powered Zenit film return spy satellites with a +/-2 week station life. Launching these 30-60 times a year gave 1-2 on station at a time… all to perform worse in every single way than a single electro-optical KH-11 satellite that needs 1 launch every decade+.

I don’t think the Soviets ever moved past film return satellites, not until after the wall fell.

The Zenit was basically the same capsule Yuri Gargarin flew up in, but instead of a person inside it had a telescope and a film reel.
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Online Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #725 on: 12/08/2023 06:43 pm »
The Soviet Unions launches included all of their launch vehicles.  Sure the R7 family got the most, but what about other styles of rockets?  Has F9/FH family beat the R7 family of rocket launches?
Falcon so far this year has beaten the 64 or 65 launch per year maximum that the R7 family had achieved in like the 1970s or early 1980s.

 If you were going to count all the Soviet union launches in a year, you need to count all US launches in a year and possibly all US plus ally launches (as the Soviet union was nominally (stop laughing!) a bunch of countries).

Regardless, next year SpaceX could break the Cold War era total global annual launch record ALONE.

The funny thing about all those Soviet launches when you dig into them, is that the majority were crappy battery powered Zenit film return spy satellites with a +/-2 week station life. Launching these 30-60 times a year gave 1-2 on station at a time… all to perform worse in every single way than a single electro-optical KH-11 satellite that needs 1 launch every decade+.

I don’t think the Soviets ever moved past film return satellites, not until after the wall fell.

The Zenit was basically the same capsule Yuri Gargarin flew up in, but instead of a person inside it had a telescope and a film reel.
Yes, I find it continually ironic that the Soviets/Russians were far ahead in launch rate (and, to some extent after Apollo, launch capacity) because they were far behind in electronics. I have sometimes worried that improved electronics could have the same effect of reducing our space access capacity in the future.
« Last Edit: 12/08/2023 11:37 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline Eagandale4114

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #727 on: 12/09/2023 04:43 am »
The Soviet Unions launches included all of their launch vehicles.  Sure the R7 family got the most, but what about other styles of rockets?  Has F9/FH family beat the R7 family of rocket launches?
Falcon so far this year has beaten the 64 or 65 launch per year maximum that the R7 family had achieved in like the 1970s or early 1980s.

 If you were going to count all the Soviet union launches in a year, you need to count all US launches in a year and possibly all US plus ally launches (as the Soviet union was nominally (stop laughing!) a bunch of countries).

Regardless, next year SpaceX could break the Cold War era total global annual launch record ALONE.

The funny thing about all those Soviet launches when you dig into them, is that the majority were crappy battery powered Zenit film return spy satellites with a +/-2 week station life. Launching these 30-60 times a year gave 1-2 on station at a time… all to perform worse in every single way than a single electro-optical KH-11 satellite that needs 1 launch every decade+.

I don’t think the Soviets ever moved past film return satellites, not until after the wall fell.

The Zenit was basically the same capsule Yuri Gargarin flew up in, but instead of a person inside it had a telescope and a film reel.
Yes, I find it continually ironic that the Soviets/Russians were far ahead in launch rate (and, to some extent after Apollo, launch capacity) because they were far behind in electronics. I have sometimes worried that improved electronics could have the same effect of reducing our space access capacity in the future.

Improved electronics could have the effect of reducing space access capacity in the future - although it could also provide the reason for increasing it as well. For instance, improved electronics starting in the 1970s reduced the need for the US to launch many spy satellites. On the other hand, improvements in electronics in the 2010s provided the means for several companies to develop their mega-constellations (Starlink and OneWeb) which led to the increase in launch cadence.

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #728 on: 12/09/2023 04:56 am »
Per SFN they have now launched 100 times in the last 365 days.

The 100 launches in 365 days mark lasted between 8:03 UTC and 22:27 UTC on 8 December 2023. A longer period of 100(+) launches in 365 days will start on 11 December 2023 prov ided both launches currently scheduled for that day don't have additional delays.

Offline meekGee

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #729 on: 12/09/2023 02:45 pm »
Per SFN they have now launched 100 times in the last 365 days.

The 100 launches in 365 days mark lasted between 8:03 UTC and 22:27 UTC on 8 December 2023. A longer period of 100(+) launches in 365 days will start on 11 December 2023 prov ided both launches currently scheduled for that day don't have additional delays.
Yes, the last 2 weeks of 2022 had 5 launches, twice the normal rate at the time, and higher than most of 2023. (!)

However, this anomaly slides out of the 365 day window by December 31st, and then the avg will drop.

That's why we're touching 98 (+2) for a minute now, and need 11/mo to maintain that, where the record so far is 10, and occurred in November for the first time.

We'll need 13/month to make 100 falcon launches.

But looking at 2022 and 2021, a sprint to the finish is not without precedent.
« Last Edit: 12/09/2023 03:10 pm by meekGee »
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Offline Brigantine

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #730 on: 12/12/2023 01:20 am »
Another OTV-7 delay

Rolling 365 day total stays at 96 +2
YTD total stays at 91 +2

Expecting Ovzon-3 will postpone to NET Dec 16, and the 4th SLC-40 flight following that to NET 2024 Jan 01

100 SpaceX launches is looking comfortable for now - 7 launches in 19 days

100 Falcon launches is now relying on at least 2 of:
-3 in 19 days from SLC-4E - the record here was 8.03 days until the most recent launch broke it (Dec 01-Dec 08 = 6.57 days)
-2 in 19 days from LC-39A - the record after a FH is 17.38 days (Jan 15-Feb 02) so another launch on Dec 30/31 would have precedent
-5 in 19 days from SLC-40 - with a 3.93 day pad turnaround record
- another big new record
« Last Edit: 12/12/2023 01:40 am by Brigantine »

Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #731 on: 12/12/2023 01:59 am »
The Soviet Unions launches included all of their launch vehicles.  Sure the R7 family got the most, but what about other styles of rockets?  Has F9/FH family beat the R7 family of rocket launches?
their highest count is just 108 in 1982.

Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #732 on: 12/12/2023 02:00 am »
Elon has tweeted again, which suggests to me that he’s got one eye on what the total for the year will be:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1733079147478495738

Quote
91st Falcon flight of 2023
... And he's counting Falcons.  He could have said 93 SpaceX launches.

100 is still possible, but IMO unlikely. What s failure, I can see the headlines now.
Musk's second confirmation of what the 100 number means.
so 100 launches not possible.

Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #733 on: 12/12/2023 02:08 am »
The Soviet Unions launches included all of their launch vehicles.  Sure the R7 family got the most, but what about other styles of rockets?  Has F9/FH family beat the R7 family of rocket launches?
Falcon so far this year has beaten the 64 or 65 launch per year maximum that the R7 family had achieved in like the 1970s or early 1980s.

 If you were going to count all the Soviet union launches in a year, you need to count all US launches in a year and possibly all US plus ally launches (as the Soviet union was nominally (stop laughing!) a bunch of countries).

Regardless, next year SpaceX could break the Cold War era total global annual launch record ALONE.
they are broken this year only if you count 6 Rocket Lab NZ launches as by usa
« Last Edit: 12/12/2023 02:09 am by Chinakpradhan »

Online Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #734 on: 12/12/2023 02:09 am »
Literally he said Falcon flights. Not all flights. And the first one quote tweeted Falcon, too.
« Last Edit: 12/12/2023 02:43 am by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #735 on: 12/12/2023 02:13 am »
Elon has tweeted again, which suggests to me that he’s got one eye on what the total for the year will be:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1733079147478495738

Quote
91st Falcon flight of 2023
... And he's counting Falcons.  He could have said 93 SpaceX launches.

100 is still possible, but IMO unlikely. What s failure, I can see the headlines now.
Musk's second confirmation of what the 100 number means.
Is this supposed to be sarcasm? Because a statement of how many Falcon launches there have been this year does not mean that the estimate made over a year ago that said "100 orbital flights" only included Falcons. That is a completely ridiculous claim that requires ignoring both context and the literal meaning of words. An actual confirmation of what he meant would be something like "When that estimate was made I was referring to ..." I bet if asked, Musk's actual response would be something like "I don't remember, plus or minus a couple launches either way is irrelevant to the overall trend of accelerating pace of launches."

By reasonable definition the Starship test flights were launches of an orbit capable vehicle, and generally should be counted in my opinion. If you prefer counting successful flights or discounting payload free test launches that is up to you. Just don't try to claim that SpaceX definitively missed there goal, when no matter how you count it they did extremely well, and have certainly made it within reasonable margin of error. Musk's actual preference is to count equivalent mass to LEO. This is because raw launch count understates just how revolutionary the amount of stuff SpaceX is putting into space is with Falcon, and even more so understates the absurd capabilities Starship will have.
they were Transatmospheric so could be counted as launches that failed Transatmospheric orbital flight and SpaceX need 6 launches by 3rd January. Point to be noted is counting ends on 2nd January as SpaceX started this year launches on 3rd so if you do doubleheader in these 2 days it is counted.

Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #736 on: 12/12/2023 02:18 am »
Per SFN they have now launched 100 times in the last 365 days.
omg see we have different standards of year counting just like birthdays and Russian new year

Offline meekGee

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #737 on: 12/12/2023 02:56 am »
Literally he said Falcon flights. Not all flights. And the first one quote tweeted Falcon, too.

I think it’s really funny Starship doesn’t count as a rocket. Maybe it doesn’t fly but instead teleports continuously? Not flying!
Well...  Obviously it's not outside of reason to go either way.

But, we've been tracking the launch count for years, and this thread has been about the phenomenal growth of Falcon.  Starship is not operational yet, each launch is on a  "we'll see how far it gets" basis.  If there's growth, it won't follow any smooth graph - the first couple of years just don't do that, it's an entirely different thing.

So Musk could have chosen to boast about total spaceX launches of an orbital class rocket, or about Falcons.  He said 91, not 93, which means that's the record quantity he has in mind.  Starship will get its turn, but just not now yet.
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Online Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #738 on: 12/12/2023 05:40 am »
OK, this is dumb to argue about. But if you’re asking how many launches SpaceX does, that 100% includes Starship launches. If you’re talking just about Falcon, we’ll that’s Falcon.
« Last Edit: 12/12/2023 05:42 am by Robotbeat »
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To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline eeergo

Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #739 on: 12/12/2023 07:28 am »
OK, this is dumb to argue about. But if you’re asking how many launches SpaceX does, that 100% includes Starship launches. If you’re talking just about Falcon, we’ll that’s Falcon.

The OP whose tally we were all comparing against said it in this thread's very first post, before any Starship flight, and confirmed it about a month ago:

  both Falcon 9 and Heavy are counted but not Starship

If you're including Starship you'd be fitting the sum of two exponentials (according to your model) together, since their launch cadences are quite decoupled as demonstrated by separate launch and integration teams.
-DaviD-

 

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