Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6

[seb21051]

New Glenn could launch Starliner.

Is NG man-rated? I thought I saw something along those lines somewhere.

[DanClemmensen]

Boeing is still half-owner of ULA, so (to a first approximation) they would get half the profit of the Vulcan-Centaur upgrade. Congress should require a competitive bid for the next LV. Unless it was excluded from bidding, Falcon 9 would win.

SpaceX is trying to replace Falcon with Starship. SpaceX may decide that launching Starliner with Falcon in the 2030s would interfere with their Falcon retirement plans and raise the price to Boeing a lot to make up for it. This may let Vulcan, Terran R, Neutron, MLV, New Glenn, or Starship win the contract to launch Starliner post-Atlas.

True. But the entire hypothesis is flawed: there is no obvious mechanism for Congress to appropriate money to pay for crew-rating of any launcher for Starliner. CCP is supposed to be a services contract.

[cpushack]

Is Starliner going to be safe enough for the two astronauts to come home?  Helium, I assume, pressurizes the hypergolic fuel.  Not enough pressure, thrusters won't operate properly.

Starliner in its current (stable) state attached to the ISS has all the Helium manifolds turned off, so no leaking until undocking.

It has ~70 hours of free flying flight capability left after all the leaking on the way up, they only need a few hours of that to undock and deorbit, so should be fine

[jstrotha0975]

New Glenn could launch Starliner.

Is NG man-rated? I thought I saw something along those lines somewhere.

New Glenn isn't currently man-rated, but I do believe they said it possibly would be in the future, that and New Glenn will probably be cheaper than Vulcan.

[StraumliBlight]

New Glenn isn't currently man-rated, but I do believe they said it possibly would be in the future, that and New Glenn will probably be cheaper than Vulcan.

Blue Origin have a crew capsule project, so New Glenn will eventually require man-rating. Also launching Starliner on a 7 m diameter rocket would mean the aeroskirt could be deleted.

https://twitter.com/DrChrisCombs/status/1527695992543404034

[woods170]

New Glenn isn't currently man-rated, but I do believe they said it possibly would be in the future, that and New Glenn will probably be cheaper than Vulcan.

Blue Origin have a crew capsule project, so New Glenn will eventually require man-rating. Also launching Starliner on a 7 m diameter rocket would mean the aeroskirt could be deleted.

https://twitter.com/DrChrisCombs/status/1527695992543404034

Oooof. Linking to Chris Combs to "explain" the Starliner aero skirt. Not the smartest thing to do IMO. That's like linking to ESGHound to "illustrate" the EIS for Starship at Boca Chica.

More reliable sources for why the aeroskirt exists are:
- https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/10/atlas-v-starliner-mitigate-aerodynamic-issues/
- https://www.ulalaunch.com/docs/default-source/rockets/atlasvstarliner.pdf
- https://www.space.com/boeing-starliner-atlas-v-rocket-aeroskirt-explained.html

[matthewkantar]

Whom ever bids on future ISS crew missions has to include the cost of launch, just like SpaceX did. There are/will be plenty of combinations of launchers and vehicles  to choose from. Putting a thumb on the scale won’t help Boeing, it’ll make them worse.

[craiglv2]

Why was the Crew Dragon DM-2 first manned flight scheduled for 60 days and Starliner only a week?

[StraumliBlight]

Why was the Crew Dragon DM-2 first manned flight scheduled for 60 days and Starliner only a week?

SpaceNews article:

The agency’s original plan for Demo-2 was for it to be a short test flight, lasting roughly two weeks, but NASA chose to extend it to address a shortfall in crew time on the station. Only three people, including just one NASA astronaut, Chris Cassidy, were on the ISS at the time Demo-2 launched.

[craiglv2]

I recall that, but why originally was Spacex 2 weeks vs. one week for Starliner?

[1]

Both vehicles had similar mission profiles back then, including a potential mission extensions. CFT-1 would also have been conditionally approved for an extension had the OFT-1 mission gone well. IIRC, the possibility of CFT-1 mission extension was actually discussed before DM-2. At the time, both providers appeared pretty close in terms of timelines of getting their vehicles operational. I personally would have never guessed things would play out the way they actually did. Better late than never though.

[StraumliBlight]

Both vehicles had similar mission profiles back then, including a potential mission extensions. CFT-1 would also have been conditionally approved for an extension had the OFT-1 mission gone well. IIRC, the possibility of CFT-1 mission extension was actually discussed before DM-2. At the time, both providers appeared pretty close in terms of timelines of getting their vehicles operational. I personally would have never guessed things would play out the way they actually did. Better late than never though.

Mentioned here in NASA's June 2022 update:

Based upon current space station resources and scheduling needs, a short duration mission with two astronaut test pilots is sufficient to meet all NASA and Boeing test objectives for CFT, which include demonstrating Starliner’s ability to safely fly operational crewed missions to and from the space station. To protect against unforeseen events with crew transportation to the station, NASA may extend the CFT docked duration up to six months and add an additional astronaut later, if needed.

[1]

Mentioned here in NASA's June 2022 update

All true, but I was angling more for the original announcements of such. Turns out, I should have just scrolled down the page a bit in the Starliner section. We had a mini thread about it back in April of 2018. I'd forgotten that those talks had begun even before the uncrewed flights had flown.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45464.0

[catdlr]

See attachment for Helodriver comment on Maxar WorldView-3 imagery:

https://twitter.com/maxar/status/1801015514698784885

In-space 📸 of @Boeing Starliner’s first-ever astronaut mission!

Taken June 7, these satellite images show the spacecraft docked to the International Space Station (ISS).

This type of imagery collection, known as non-Earth imaging (NEI), is a breakthrough capability that enables Maxar to support critical space domain awareness missions for government and commercial customers.

Learn more: https://www.maxar.com/maxar-intelligence/products/non-earth-imaging

#satelliteimagery #spacedomainawareness

[Steven Pietrobon]

This could have saved Columbia. A generation too late.

The US government already had assets in space that could have done that imaging. NASA engineers requested those images, but the request was nixed by a NASA manager.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nasa-official-breaks-her-silence/

[Vettedrmr]

https://x.com/maxar/status/1801015514698784885

In-space 📸 of @Boeing Starliner’s first-ever astronaut mission!

Taken June 7, these satellite images show the spacecraft docked to the International Space Station (ISS).

This type of imagery collection, known as non-Earth imaging (NEI), is a breakthrough capability that enables Maxar to support critical space domain awareness missions for government and commercial customers.

Learn more: https://www.maxar.com/maxar-intelligence/products/non-earth-imaging

#satelliteimagery #spacedomainawareness

I understand this new tech is impressive, and that this thread is about CFT, but this statement is nothing but theatrics.  IMO NOTHING could have saved Columbia; they were in the wrong orbit to dock with ISS, they had no way to repair the damage done to the wing, etc. Not a good look for Maxar.

Now, back to CFT.

[AstroWare]

(...)  Not a good look for Maxar.

Now, back to CFT.

Maxar didn't make the Columbia comment.

[Vettedrmr]

(...)  Not a good look for Maxar.

Now, back to CFT.

Maxar didn't make the Columbia comment.

Thanks, I've corrected my original post.  The way I read it the author was associated with Maxar.

[crandles57]

Is Starliner going to be safe enough for the two astronauts to come home?  Helium, I assume, pressurizes the hypergolic fuel.  Not enough pressure, thrusters won't operate properly.

Yes.

Quite.

The following seems crazy to me
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-the-boeing-starliner-abort-the#wuy8rc7bnl

Will the Boeing Starliner that launched on June 5 encounter major, mission-changing problems? Currently at 68% has recently hit 84%

I am thinking it should be under 10%.

As well as 1) Helium with 10 time amount needed, there is also:
2) engines but possibly bar 1 the engines are fine just software being picky. The situations not likely to happen on way back and even if it did they could bring them back on-line as previously. Some work to understand issue but they still work
3) One Valve didn't cycle properly. I have seen less about this, is this also a minor issue?

More issues than they would like, perhaps slightly concerning there are so many but I get impression there is still plenty of redundancy to say it is safe to continue with mission.

Should I push the %age down some more?

Edit another couple of markets
https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/will-an-announcement-be-made-before-6wrca85juw?r=TXFyaXVz
Will an announcement be made before 2025 that the Boeing Starliner program will be terminated? Currently 23%
https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-an-announcement-be-made-before#1y09ki2rox2i
Will an announcement be made before June 30, 2024 that the Boeing Starliner program will be terminated? Currently 6%

[cplchanb]

Did we know there were five?
Prior to Monday's NASA blog post, I thought we only knew of four -- one detected after the May 7 scrub, two more detected on the way to ISS, and one more detected post-docking after the He manifold isolation valves were closed.
We haven't been given any details on the fifth, have we?

Not sure about the 5th, but the fact that there were at least 4 different valves leaking suggests a QA problem with the valve manufacturer, the spacecraft assembly process at Boeing or both.
1 valve leaking is probably an outlier.
2 valves leaking suggests there might be a problem.
4 valves leaking? This is a real problem.

one has to wonder if the QA culture that was bred at the 737 max/787 production lines have drifted to their aerospace division.... very very bad look on Boeing regardless on if its their fault or the suppliers'....