There are two inflection points that I’m interested in seeing: 1) the point where customers ask SpaceX for used before SpaceX asks them and 2) the point where no one cares whether it’s used or not and it’s just a ride to space. It may be difficult to know exactly when we cross each of those but they seem like significant landmarks of the shift in thinking about reuse.
Quote from: cppetrie on 12/16/2017 01:13 pm There are two inflection points that I’m interested in seeing: 1) the point where customers ask SpaceX for used before SpaceX asks them and 2) the point where no one cares whether it’s used or not and it’s just a ride to space. It may be difficult to know exactly when we cross each of those but they seem like significant landmarks of the shift in thinking about reuse.I suspect your 1st inflection point has happened. It’s not clear from this report in June whether customers approached SoaceX first or not. But if they hadn’t by then I’d be surprised if it hadn’t happened since, especially with more reports since June of schedule benefits and NASA on-board.
The important distinction to me is re-use of boosters that went to LEO. We haven't seen a re-used GTO flight or a third flight of the same booster. Those are important milestones that hopefully will happen in 2018. They may require block 5.
Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 12/16/2017 01:29 pmQuote from: cppetrie on 12/16/2017 01:13 pm There are two inflection points that I’m interested in seeing: 1) the point where customers ask SpaceX for used before SpaceX asks them and 2) the point where no one cares whether it’s used or not and it’s just a ride to space. It may be difficult to know exactly when we cross each of those but they seem like significant landmarks of the shift in thinking about reuse.I suspect your 1st inflection point has happened. It’s not clear from this report in June whether customers approached SoaceX first or not. But if they hadn’t by then I’d be surprised if it hadn’t happened since, especially with more reports since June of schedule benefits and NASA on-board.I suspect you’re right that it has occurred, but since it’s not confirmed and it seems an important one I included it. It also strikes me as nothing short of amazing as to how fast this has become normalized. It was just 9 months ago that we were watching the first reuse happen. It almost seems old hat at this point. And it seems to have rapidly gained momentum amongst customers.
Ashby: recalling being in a meeting 10 years ago with Air Force Space Command Gen. Chilton, along with AFRL and NASA personnel, who concluded that flyback boosters were not viable. Technology and private funding changed that. #NSRC2017
Sorry but that's Incorrect. The technology is not all that revolutionary, it's been an engineering issue more than anything. And in terms of money, private reusability systems will cost a fraction of what NASA spends on just a capsule! Reuse is really about VISION and GUTS.
If they are running out of cores to be reused and about to go into Block V? Could they say we can pay full price if your able to recover & reuse it. we could get 10% credit that could be used on a future flight or something.
Quote from: Tomness on 12/19/2017 01:37 amIf they are running out of cores to be reused and about to go into Block V? Could they say we can pay full price if your able to recover & reuse it. we could get 10% credit that could be used on a future flight or something.They aren't running out of cores to be reused.They have too many cores available for reuse, and Block V which seems to be close to maiden launch which should support 10 relaunches with refurb so quick it should eventually be done in a day or two (however the first few Block V refurbs will likely be longer to be triple sure everything is performing as designed).Block III boosters that are doing their 2nd flight aren't valuable enough to keep at this point.Block IVs might fly 3 times. Maybe.In my view the main use for 2nd flights of Block IVs will be to perform expendable missions that can't be performed by Block V with ASDS landing. Save the Block Vs as much as possible for reuse. Block IV does have more performance than Block IIIs, and likely will be launched with Block V upper stages which should have more performance too.
Shotwell said the only FH to ever fly with non-Block 5 cores will be the maiden launch.
Quote from: Prettz on 12/21/2017 06:06 amShotwell said the only FH to ever fly with non-Block 5 cores will be the maiden launch.STP-2 should fly three new cores* and possibly keep flying the same three on FHs down the road. I think we'll all be surprised to find how few Block 5 cores it takes to fly a 30-launch manifest. My guess is three for FH, and a pair of F9 at each of three three pads. About ten total... easily fab'd by mid-2018. * assumes the maiden launch goes well enough to not need repeating.
I think 3 F9 first stages per launch site is more likely as at times one stage will have to be undergoing its every 10 launches refurbishment. But 2018 may continue to see a skew in the S1:S2 ratio (we have no hard evidence, nothing except inference but it surely has already started)
@IridiumBoss with the move to allow using flight proven cores, would Iridium now be open to being the first company to use reused Fairings?
We're open to anything if it can be proven to improve risk, schedule and cost. We're about getting our amazing next generation network in space as fast and safely as we can, not creating history for its own sake (though happy to do that this week with our fourth launch)!
I’m hoping someone can find info on another customer electing to reuse?
A good sign:SpaceX Opens Media Accreditation for PAZ MissionHAWTHORNE, Calif. – December 22, 2017. Media accreditation is now open for SpaceX's PAZ mission from Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The launch is targeted for no earlier than late January 2018.A flight-proven Falcon 9 will deliver PAZ to a low-Earth orbit (LEO).