FAILURE: CBERS-3 Long March-4B launch, Taiyuan - December 9, 2013 (0326UTC)

[input~2]

New press release from INPE

Lançamento do CBERS-3

Segunda-feira, 09 de Dezembro de 2013
  Às 11h26, hora de Beijing (1h26, hora de Brasília), desta segunda-feira (9/12), o satélite CBERS-3, desenvolvido conjuntamente por Brasil e China, foi lançado pelo veículo chinês Longa Marcha 4B, do Centro de Lançamentos de Satélites de Taiyuan, China. Porém, houve uma falha de funcionamento do veículo lançador durante o voo e, consequentemente, o satélite não foi posicionado na órbita prevista. Avaliações preliminares sugerem que o CBERS-3 tenha retornado ao planeta.
 Engenheiros chineses responsáveis pela construção do veículo lançador estão avaliando as causas do problema e o possível ponto de queda.
 Os dados obtidos mostram que os subsistemas do CBERS-3 funcionaram normalmente durante a tentativa de sua colocação em órbita.
 Para assegurar o cumprimento dos objetivos do programa CBERS, Brasil e China concordaram em iniciar imediatamente discussões técnicas visando a antecipação da montagem e lançamento do CBERS-4.

http://www.inpe.br/noticias/noticia.php?Cod_Noticia=3471

[jcm]

Chinese-language Xinhua:

http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/tech/2013-12/09/c_118484246.htm

Satellite is  ziyuan yi hao 03 xing    (ZY One satellite 03)
Same details as in English version

[input~2]

According to INPE (quoted by Globo), the cause of the failure was a premature cutoff of the 3rd stage engine 11 seconds earlier than nominal
The altitude reached was 720 km instead of 778 km planned. The velocity reached was not enough to maintain an orbital flight

(source in Portuguese: http://g1.globo.com/sp/vale-do-paraiba-regiao/noticia/2013/12/corte-antecipado-na-propulsao-impediu-cbers-3-de-manter-orbita-diz-inpe.html)

[input~2]

Another article on the same potential cause of the failure
Falha nos 11 segundos finais da propulsão derrubou satélite sino-brasileiro

[jcm]

I made a rough estimate based on CBERS 2B and an 11s shortfall in the burn and 720 km apogee.
I get an orbit around  -153 x 720 km x 98.5 deg, with impact  in the Antarctic around 0407 UTC.
However, the uncertainties are large.

[Chris Bergin]

I made a rough estimate based on CBERS 2B and an 11s shortfall in the burn and 720 km apogee.
I get an orbit around  -153 x 720 km x 98.5 deg, with impact  in the Antarctic around 0407 UTC.
However, the uncertainties are large.

Thanks Jonathan. I'll use that, while noting it's an estimation.

[edkyle99]

I made a rough estimate based on CBERS 2B and an 11s shortfall in the burn and 720 km apogee.
I get an orbit around  -153 x 720 km x 98.5 deg, with impact  in the Antarctic around 0407 UTC.
However, the uncertainties are large.

I was skeptical at first, since this third stage is supposed to burn for more than 6 minutes, but it turns out that 11 seconds is all it takes with this relatively heavy payload to fall short - way short.  Something like 270 meters/second short, give or take.

 - Ed Kyle

[jcm]

I made a rough estimate based on CBERS 2B and an 11s shortfall in the burn and 720 km apogee.
I get an orbit around  -153 x 720 km x 98.5 deg, with impact  in the Antarctic around 0407 UTC.
However, the uncertainties are large.

I was skeptical at first, since this third stage is supposed to burn for more than 6 minutes, but it turns out that 11 seconds is all it takes with this relatively heavy payload to fall short - way short.  Something like 270 meters/second short, give or take.

 - Ed Kyle

I got 270m/s at first, but when I included some planned residuals (I estimated 600 kg of resid prop given
the difference between the burn time and the estimated potential burn time given max prop load) it came
down to 240 m/s.  Mind you, the error bar on that resid is probably +/- 100 percent.

[Lewis007]

Some photos of the launch processing can be found here:
http://www.cbers.inpe.br/galeria_fotos/lancamento_cbers3.php

[robertross]

Just read about the failure from the news article. Very sad news indeed.
I have to wonder if, being that there was Hydrazine on board, and if indeed it did crash on Antarctica, if any would have survived re-entry?

[input~2]

The story of the failure as experienced by a reporter with the Brazilian delegation attending the launch
(in Portuguese): http://www.blogdaretrato.com.br/2013/12/rb-na-china-o-fracasso-do-lancamento-do.html

[woods170]

According to INPE (quoted by Globo), the cause of the failure was a premature cutoff of the 3rd stage engine 11 seconds earlier than nominal
The altitude reached was 720 km instead of 778 km planned. The velocity reached was not enough to maintain an orbital flight

(source in Portuguese: http://g1.globo.com/sp/vale-do-paraiba-regiao/noticia/2013/12/corte-antecipado-na-propulsao-impediu-cbers-3-de-manter-orbita-diz-inpe.html)

Failure of the third stage now being confirmed by China's launch service provider:

http://www.spacenews.com/article/launch-report/38585china-blames-long-march-failure-on-third-stage-malfunction

[Galactic Penguin SST]

Hmm there are reports that the rocket used on this launch has been stored for several years already (in fact someone said that it's CZ-4B s/n Y10), and it might already been in Taiyuan since late last year. Long storage issues maybe? 

[AJA]

The story of the failure as experienced by a reporter with the Brazilian delegation attending the launch
(in Portuguese): http://www.blogdaretrato.com.br/2013/12/rb-na-china-o-fracasso-do-lancamento-do.html

AIUI, that post seems to imply that satellite separation happened... even though the stage didn't achieve orbit.

I guess that's possible - and may even have been programmed - if your U/S doesn't have restart capability, then there' nothing you lose by triggering satellite sep through a timer linked to engine cut-off? (Yeah, maybe RCS can give you some dV, but it's nothing the satellite couldn't do on its own..?)

[pargoo]

    Any launch pics in the offing..?

[russianhalo117]

    Any launch pics in the offing..?

Highly unlikely since the launch failed. That stance is pretty much standard policy for almost all Chinese launch failures.

[russianhalo117]

Hmm there are reports that the rocket used on this launch has been stored for several years already (in fact someone said that it's CZ-4B s/n Y10), and it might already been in Taiyuan since late last year. Long storage issues maybe? 

I read same thing and although not officially confirmed I do agree with that scenario.

[jcm]

The story of the failure as experienced by a reporter with the Brazilian delegation attending the launch
(in Portuguese): http://www.blogdaretrato.com.br/2013/12/rb-na-china-o-fracasso-do-lancamento-do.html

AIUI, that post seems to imply that satellite separation happened... even though the stage didn't achieve orbit.

I guess that's possible - and may even have been programmed - if your U/S doesn't have restart capability, then there' nothing you lose by triggering satellite sep through a timer linked to engine cut-off? (Yeah, maybe RCS can give you some dV, but it's nothing the satellite couldn't do on its own..?)

That is actually pretty common - automatic separation after final stage shutdown - and indeed has occurred plenty of times
on late-phase launch failures.

[pargoo]

     Infantile behaviour, revealing true colors of a prison-state...if we don't publish launch pics it didn't happen.

[Satori]

     Infantile behaviour, revealing true colors of a prison-state...if we don't publish launch pics it didn't happen.

The pictures will eventually see the daylight...