Author Topic: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018  (Read 28480 times)

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #20 on: 05/23/2018 02:06 am »
Ok here is some interesting profit numbers to chew on. This year 2018 with a reuse rate of 60% and total flights of ~26 with new flights priced at $62.5M with ~$12.5M profit and used flights priced at $50M with profits at $27M the total simplistic profit calculation for 2018 is $551M from flight ops. In 2019 with 19 flights and all flights priced at $50M but with BLK 5's only and at a reuse rate of 90% (10 total flights per booster) the total profit for 2019 is $463M from Flight Ops. This 27% dip in launches is only a 16% dip in profits.

The other item is that in most of the profit or extra available cash to fund the build out of Starlink and development of BFR comes form a steady launch list of just 20 paying customers per year. The rest of the launches going up to a total as high as 60 in 1 year would be from launch of Starlink.

The statements by Ms Shotwell is not a surprise.

Offline david1971

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #21 on: 05/23/2018 06:02 am »
Cutting and pasting from an old post of mine, to put ~18 flights into context. 
Also note that 18 is roughly half of the total launches of Delta IV+heavies.

(From Ed's site)
Years that Atlas had 16+ successful orbital launches (along with failures):
1962         16(3)
1964         18(3)
1965         19(5)
1966         33(3)

Thor/Delta:
1960     21(7)       
1961     23(7)       
1962     38(4)       
1963     29(5)       
1964     32(4)       
1965     33(2)       
1966     24(2)       
1967     28(0)     
1968     21(2)     
1969     22(2)         
1970     16(0)   

Long March 2/3/4
2011     19(1)
2012     19(0)
2015     17(0)
2016     19(2)

And of course a hat-tip to Soyuz, which had crazy launch numbers...
I flew on SOFIA four times.

Offline Jcc

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #22 on: 05/23/2018 11:02 am »
If 2019 has 18 flights with most flights with reflown Block 5s with minimal refurb, they could earn as much profit as with 30 flights on mostly new stages or a lot of resources spend on reusability research.

Offline Jakusb

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #23 on: 05/23/2018 09:01 pm »
So real quick summary, please add or correct where needed:
1 engine per day
1 core every 14 days
14 1st stages in 2018
20 2nd stages in 2018
24-28 launches in 2018
roughly 18 launches in 2019
60% of launches globally
BFR to start flying in 2024

Especially the 1 core per 14 days combined with "currently", does make me wonder if they are storing ready stages at Hawthorne at this moment, or less likely, we are totally missing some transports to McGregor....

Offline speedevil

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #24 on: 05/23/2018 09:09 pm »
So real quick summary, please add or correct where needed:
20 2nd stages in 2018
24-28 launches in 2018

30 second stages, I thought.

Offline DavidRPainting

Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #25 on: 05/23/2018 09:25 pm »
Assuming commercial flights are at the rate between this year and last year till BFR has taken over (post 2024), then there will be around 160 F9 flights. If we add to that 170 F9 flights for Starlink, we have 330 in total. Assuming 10 flights per core, that gives us 33 stage 1 boosters. Add a few as centre Falcon Heavy cores, then we're up to the numbers Elon predicted.

Offline vaporcobra

Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #26 on: 05/23/2018 09:32 pm »
So real quick summary, please add or correct where needed:
1 engine per day
1 core every 14 days
14 1st stages in 2018
20 2nd stages in 2018
24-28 launches in 2018
roughly 18 launches in 2019
60% of launches globally
BFR to start flying in 2024

Especially the 1 core per 14 days combined with "currently", does make me wonder if they are storing ready stages at Hawthorne at this moment, or less likely, we are totally missing some transports to McGregor....

99% sure she said 30 S2s in 2018, and I believe her 2024 BFR comment was in relation to the first launch(es) to Mars :)

Offline Lar

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #27 on: 05/23/2018 09:57 pm »
Assuming commercial flights are at the rate between this year and last year till BFR has taken over (post 2024), then there will be around 160 F9 flights. If we add to that 170 F9 flights for Starlink, we have 330 in total. Assuming 10 flights per core, that gives us 33 stage 1 boosters. Add a few as centre Falcon Heavy cores, then we're up to the numbers Elon predicted.
the 10 flights per core may be high (teething troubles, deliberate expends) or low (doesn't allow for flights after the first refurbishment) .... but yeah
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #28 on: 05/23/2018 10:02 pm »
So real quick summary, please add or correct where needed:
1 engine per day
1 core every 14 days
14 1st stages in 2018
20 2nd stages in 2018
24-28 launches in 2018
roughly 18 launches in 2019
60% of launches globally
BFR to start flying in 2024

Especially the 1 core per 14 days combined with "currently", does make me wonder if they are storing ready stages at Hawthorne at this moment, or less likely, we are totally missing some transports to McGregor....

Nothing she said means they are actually producing at those numbers.  She said they 'could' do those numbers.

Stock piling boosters would be a very expensive, upper stages maybe worth having a few.  Launch contracts are bought far enough in advance they can plan production to meet demand.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline groundbound

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #29 on: 05/23/2018 10:12 pm »
So real quick summary, please add or correct where needed:
1 engine per day
1 core every 14 days
14 1st stages in 2018
20 2nd stages in 2018
24-28 launches in 2018
roughly 18 launches in 2019
60% of launches globally
BFR to start flying in 2024

Especially the 1 core per 14 days combined with "currently", does make me wonder if they are storing ready stages at Hawthorne at this moment, or less likely, we are totally missing some transports to McGregor....

Nothing she said means they are actually producing at those numbers.  She said they 'could' do those numbers.

Stock piling boosters would be a very expensive, upper stages maybe worth having a few. Launch contracts are bought far enough in advance they can plan production to meet demand.

I thought they had explicitly stated on multiple occasions that they plan to stockpile Block 5 boosters as soon as they reasonably can. Am I misremembering this?

Offline DistantTemple

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #30 on: 05/23/2018 10:31 pm »
So real quick summary, please add or correct where needed:
1 engine per day
1 core every 14 days
14 1st stages in 2018
20 2nd stages in 2018
24-28 launches in 2018
roughly 18 launches in 2019
60% of launches globally
BFR to start flying in 2024

Especially the 1 core per 14 days combined with "currently", does make me wonder if they are storing ready stages at Hawthorne at this moment, or less likely, we are totally missing some transports to McGregor....

99% sure she said 30 S2s in 2018, and I believe her 2024 BFR comment was in relation to the first launch(es) to Mars :)
It was a very quick "currently". I assume this refers to what they were able to do with Block 4, but is not sufficient detail to clearly state that for Block 5, which ISTM has probably been going much slower, whilst they iron out any new kinks in changed manufacturing processes. AIUI we've only seen 2 B5s (is there also one at McGregor?). So I doubt they have got any, and definitely not "many" stashed in secret! However I suppose there could be 4 in production approaching completion...
We can always grow new new dendrites. Reach out and make connections and your world will burst with new insights. Then repose in consciousness.

Offline Torbjorn Larsson, OM

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #31 on: 05/23/2018 10:47 pm »
So real quick summary, please add or correct where needed:
1 engine per day
1 core every 14 days
14 1st stages in 2018
20 2nd stages in 2018
24-28 launches in 2018
roughly 18 launches in 2019
60% of launches globally
BFR to start flying in 2024

Especially the 1 core per 14 days combined with "currently", does make me wonder if they are storing ready stages at Hawthorne at this moment, or less likely, we are totally missing some transports to McGregor....

Nothing she said means they are actually producing at those numbers.  She said they 'could' do those numbers.

Stock piling boosters would be a very expensive, upper stages maybe worth having a few. Launch contracts are bought far enough in advance they can plan production to meet demand.

I thought they had explicitly stated on multiple occasions that they plan to stockpile Block 5 boosters as soon as they reasonably can. Am I misremembering this?

Quote
@elonmusk
Replying to @Everman
SpaceX will prob build 30 to 40 rocket cores for ~300 missions over 5 years. Then BFR takes over & Falcon retires.

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/05/block-5-spacex-increase-launch-cadence-lower-prices/

I believe Musk said to build 30-50 Block 5 in an interview. With a current capacity of 1 core / 2 weeks, or 26 cores/year, they may produce Falcon cores for another 1-2 years. Presumably BFR will take over as product after that, meaning BFS production is planned to start sometime 2020 ED (Elon Date) if the BFS pad jumper goes well.



Offline johnfwhitesell

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #32 on: 05/24/2018 02:10 pm »
I believe Musk said to build 30-50 Block 5 in an interview. With a current capacity of 1 core / 2 weeks, or 26 cores/year, they may produce Falcon cores for another 1-2 years. Presumably BFR will take over as product after that, meaning BFS production is planned to start sometime 2020 ED (Elon Date) if the BFS pad jumper goes well.

I would hazard a guess that the factory is the single most expensive piece of capital they have by far.  Finishing block 5 production full stop to free up the factor for BFR is probably considerably cheaper then continuing to build block 5 at a steady pace.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #33 on: 05/24/2018 06:48 pm »
Ms Shotwell gave us a piece of the missing puzzle for the production trade between S1 and S2. The trade using her production numbers are 3 additional US for every S1 not built. So building 5 S1 results in 57 US. This without changing general production capacity. 6 S1 results in 54 US. This tradeoff looks to be the likely production rate to support the 50+ launches per year rate.

Offline hkultala

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #34 on: 05/24/2018 07:28 pm »
I believe Musk said to build 30-50 Block 5 in an interview. With a current capacity of 1 core / 2 weeks, or 26 cores/year, they may produce Falcon cores for another 1-2 years. Presumably BFR will take over as product after that, meaning BFS production is planned to start sometime 2020 ED (Elon Date) if the BFS pad jumper goes well.

I would hazard a guess that the factory is the single most expensive piece of capital they have by far.  Finishing block 5 production full stop to free up the factor for BFR is probably considerably cheaper then continuing to build block 5 at a steady pace.

They are bulding another factory for BFR to the port of LA.

However, the hawthorne factory will probably build the raptor engines.

Offline meekGee

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #35 on: 05/24/2018 08:06 pm »
30-50 makes perfect sense.  10 uses per rocket on average, with a comfortable margin since every time you don't recover a rocket, the rest of the fleet has to fly more, and you also need a margin for the case that BFR is a couple years late taking over the family business.



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ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Online TrevorMonty

Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #36 on: 05/25/2018 04:52 am »

They are bulding another factory for BFR to the port of LA.

However, the hawthorne factory will probably build the raptor engines.
[/quote]



I'd guess only fuselage is built in port factory along with final assembly. Hawthorne would build all other parts and sub systems including engines.
« Last Edit: 05/25/2018 04:52 am by TrevorMonty »

Offline sleepy-martian

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #37 on: 05/25/2018 04:28 pm »



I would hazard a guess that the factory is the single most expensive piece of capital they have by far.

Any estimates what the factory could be worth?

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #38 on: 05/25/2018 07:01 pm »



I would hazard a guess that the factory is the single most expensive piece of capital they have by far.

Any estimates what the factory could be worth?
The cheapest part of the factory is floor space. The expensive stuff is the tooling. Some of it is bolted to the floor and would be expensive to move. But a lot of it is mobile in that it can be moved to rearrange the floor for creating a small Raptor engine line of approximately 1/3 of the engine manufacturing floor space. To support a flight rate of 50-60 flights per year with BLK 5's flying 10 times for each set of engines they need 2/3 of the current floor space to maintaining production rates of M1DSLs and M1DVACs. Note the M1DVAC lines will double and the M1DSL lines will be the one to shrink by more than half. Going from about 150 engines to only ~60.

Offline MikeAtkinson

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Re: CNBC Interview with Gwynne May 22, 2018
« Reply #39 on: 05/25/2018 07:45 pm »



I would hazard a guess that the factory is the single most expensive piece of capital they have by far.

Any estimates what the factory could be worth?
The cheapest part of the factory is floor space. The expensive stuff is the tooling. Some of it is bolted to the floor and would be expensive to move. But a lot of it is mobile in that it can be moved to rearrange the floor for creating a small Raptor engine line of approximately 1/3 of the engine manufacturing floor space. To support a flight rate of 50-60 flights per year with BLK 5's flying 10 times for each set of engines they need 2/3 of the current floor space to maintaining production rates of M1DSLs and M1DVACs. Note the M1DVAC lines will double and the M1DSL lines will be the one to shrink by more than half. Going from about 150 engines to only ~60.

Are the factory buildings (there are quite a few now) owned or leased?

 

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