So real quick summary, please add or correct where needed:20 2nd stages in 201824-28 launches in 2018
So real quick summary, please add or correct where needed:1 engine per day1 core every 14 days14 1st stages in 201820 2nd stages in 201824-28 launches in 2018roughly 18 launches in 201960% of launches globallyBFR to start flying in 2024Especially the 1 core per 14 days combined with "currently", does make me wonder if they are storing ready stages at Hawthorne at this moment, or less likely, we are totally missing some transports to McGregor....
Assuming commercial flights are at the rate between this year and last year till BFR has taken over (post 2024), then there will be around 160 F9 flights. If we add to that 170 F9 flights for Starlink, we have 330 in total. Assuming 10 flights per core, that gives us 33 stage 1 boosters. Add a few as centre Falcon Heavy cores, then we're up to the numbers Elon predicted.
Quote from: Jakusb on 05/23/2018 09:01 pmSo real quick summary, please add or correct where needed:1 engine per day1 core every 14 days14 1st stages in 201820 2nd stages in 201824-28 launches in 2018roughly 18 launches in 201960% of launches globallyBFR to start flying in 2024Especially the 1 core per 14 days combined with "currently", does make me wonder if they are storing ready stages at Hawthorne at this moment, or less likely, we are totally missing some transports to McGregor....Nothing she said means they are actually producing at those numbers. She said they 'could' do those numbers.Stock piling boosters would be a very expensive, upper stages maybe worth having a few. Launch contracts are bought far enough in advance they can plan production to meet demand.
Quote from: Jakusb on 05/23/2018 09:01 pmSo real quick summary, please add or correct where needed:1 engine per day1 core every 14 days14 1st stages in 201820 2nd stages in 201824-28 launches in 2018roughly 18 launches in 201960% of launches globallyBFR to start flying in 2024Especially the 1 core per 14 days combined with "currently", does make me wonder if they are storing ready stages at Hawthorne at this moment, or less likely, we are totally missing some transports to McGregor....99% sure she said 30 S2s in 2018, and I believe her 2024 BFR comment was in relation to the first launch(es) to Mars
Quote from: wannamoonbase on 05/23/2018 10:02 pmQuote from: Jakusb on 05/23/2018 09:01 pmSo real quick summary, please add or correct where needed:1 engine per day1 core every 14 days14 1st stages in 201820 2nd stages in 201824-28 launches in 2018roughly 18 launches in 201960% of launches globallyBFR to start flying in 2024Especially the 1 core per 14 days combined with "currently", does make me wonder if they are storing ready stages at Hawthorne at this moment, or less likely, we are totally missing some transports to McGregor....Nothing she said means they are actually producing at those numbers. She said they 'could' do those numbers.Stock piling boosters would be a very expensive, upper stages maybe worth having a few. Launch contracts are bought far enough in advance they can plan production to meet demand.I thought they had explicitly stated on multiple occasions that they plan to stockpile Block 5 boosters as soon as they reasonably can. Am I misremembering this?
@elonmuskReplying to @EvermanSpaceX will prob build 30 to 40 rocket cores for ~300 missions over 5 years. Then BFR takes over & Falcon retires.
I believe Musk said to build 30-50 Block 5 in an interview. With a current capacity of 1 core / 2 weeks, or 26 cores/year, they may produce Falcon cores for another 1-2 years. Presumably BFR will take over as product after that, meaning BFS production is planned to start sometime 2020 ED (Elon Date) if the BFS pad jumper goes well.
Quote from: Torbjorn Larsson, OM on 05/23/2018 10:47 pmI believe Musk said to build 30-50 Block 5 in an interview. With a current capacity of 1 core / 2 weeks, or 26 cores/year, they may produce Falcon cores for another 1-2 years. Presumably BFR will take over as product after that, meaning BFS production is planned to start sometime 2020 ED (Elon Date) if the BFS pad jumper goes well.I would hazard a guess that the factory is the single most expensive piece of capital they have by far. Finishing block 5 production full stop to free up the factor for BFR is probably considerably cheaper then continuing to build block 5 at a steady pace.
I would hazard a guess that the factory is the single most expensive piece of capital they have by far.
Quote from: johnfwhitesell on 05/24/2018 02:10 pmI would hazard a guess that the factory is the single most expensive piece of capital they have by far. Any estimates what the factory could be worth?
Quote from: sleepy-martian on 05/25/2018 04:28 pmQuote from: johnfwhitesell on 05/24/2018 02:10 pmI would hazard a guess that the factory is the single most expensive piece of capital they have by far. Any estimates what the factory could be worth?The cheapest part of the factory is floor space. The expensive stuff is the tooling. Some of it is bolted to the floor and would be expensive to move. But a lot of it is mobile in that it can be moved to rearrange the floor for creating a small Raptor engine line of approximately 1/3 of the engine manufacturing floor space. To support a flight rate of 50-60 flights per year with BLK 5's flying 10 times for each set of engines they need 2/3 of the current floor space to maintaining production rates of M1DSLs and M1DVACs. Note the M1DVAC lines will double and the M1DSL lines will be the one to shrink by more than half. Going from about 150 engines to only ~60.