CNBC:QuoteALL DAY TOMORROW ON @CNBC: @MorganLBrennan has an exclusive look at @SpaceX, including a sitdown with President & COO Gwynne Shotwell. Starting 810amET on @SquawkCNBChttps://twitter.com/jodigralnick/status/998692403241402368
ALL DAY TOMORROW ON @CNBC: @MorganLBrennan has an exclusive look at @SpaceX, including a sitdown with President & COO Gwynne Shotwell. Starting 810amET on @SquawkCNBC
Finally realistic launch numbers: 24-28 this year, ~18 in 2019. ~14 first stages built this year, ~30 second stages.
Quote from: gongora on 05/22/2018 06:55 pmFinally realistic launch numbers: 24-28 this year, ~18 in 2019. ~14 first stages built this year, ~30 second stages.Assuming second stages = launches of course.(not got to end of videos)
Quote from: AncientU on 05/22/2018 10:21 amCNBC:QuoteALL DAY TOMORROW ON @CNBC: @MorganLBrennan has an exclusive look at @SpaceX, including a sitdown with President & COO Gwynne Shotwell. Starting 810amET on @SquawkCNBC*snipped link**snipped link*
CNBC:QuoteALL DAY TOMORROW ON @CNBC: @MorganLBrennan has an exclusive look at @SpaceX, including a sitdown with President & COO Gwynne Shotwell. Starting 810amET on @SquawkCNBC*snipped link*
Quote from: speedevil on 05/22/2018 07:03 pmQuote from: gongora on 05/22/2018 06:55 pmFinally realistic launch numbers: 24-28 this year, ~18 in 2019. ~14 first stages built this year, ~30 second stages.Assuming second stages = launches of course.(not got to end of videos)Not assuming anything, she gave those targets for numbers of launches (2019 similar to 2017).
Interesting claim of a dip in 2019, and seems to rule out Starlink in 2019.
I had really expected a steady annual ramp up curve from this point onwards. Anyone have more insight into the 2019 dip?
Quote from: M.E.T. on 05/23/2018 12:00 amI had really expected a steady annual ramp up curve from this point onwards. Anyone have more insight into the 2019 dip?This really shouldn't be surprising to anyone who has looked at the manifest in the last year. That's about how many payloads they have contracts to launch. Starlink isn't ready yet. What else are they going to launch?
Quote from: gongora on 05/23/2018 12:03 amQuote from: M.E.T. on 05/23/2018 12:00 amI had really expected a steady annual ramp up curve from this point onwards. Anyone have more insight into the 2019 dip?This really shouldn't be surprising to anyone who has looked at the manifest in the last year. That's about how many payloads they have contracts to launch. Starlink isn't ready yet. What else are they going to launch?Fair point. I guess I was just thinking they would tap into the frequently referenced $10 billion launch manifest as soon as possible.I guess then much of the $10 billion is not accessible just yet.
Quote from: M.E.T. on 05/23/2018 12:17 amQuote from: gongora on 05/23/2018 12:03 amQuote from: M.E.T. on 05/23/2018 12:00 amI had really expected a steady annual ramp up curve from this point onwards. Anyone have more insight into the 2019 dip?This really shouldn't be surprising to anyone who has looked at the manifest in the last year. That's about how many payloads they have contracts to launch. Starlink isn't ready yet. What else are they going to launch?Fair point. I guess I was just thinking they would tap into the frequently referenced $10 billion launch manifest as soon as possible.I guess then much of the $10 billion is not accessible just yet.Launch contracts are signed years in advance. If one wants to judge SpaceX success then look at where they were 2-3 years ago and launching now, or contracts they are signing now launching in 2-3 years. As for revenue, I’d expect a crew launch plus cargo to be worth more than a couple Comsats. Also, if they were worried about revenue or profit (to a big degree) they wouldn’t have just cut launch prices. It will interesting to hear what Gwyneth says, but I don’t expect anything g revolutionary
So real quick summary, please add or correct where needed:20 2nd stages in 201824-28 launches in 2018
So real quick summary, please add or correct where needed:1 engine per day1 core every 14 days14 1st stages in 201820 2nd stages in 201824-28 launches in 2018roughly 18 launches in 201960% of launches globallyBFR to start flying in 2024Especially the 1 core per 14 days combined with "currently", does make me wonder if they are storing ready stages at Hawthorne at this moment, or less likely, we are totally missing some transports to McGregor....
Assuming commercial flights are at the rate between this year and last year till BFR has taken over (post 2024), then there will be around 160 F9 flights. If we add to that 170 F9 flights for Starlink, we have 330 in total. Assuming 10 flights per core, that gives us 33 stage 1 boosters. Add a few as centre Falcon Heavy cores, then we're up to the numbers Elon predicted.
Quote from: Jakusb on 05/23/2018 09:01 pmSo real quick summary, please add or correct where needed:1 engine per day1 core every 14 days14 1st stages in 201820 2nd stages in 201824-28 launches in 2018roughly 18 launches in 201960% of launches globallyBFR to start flying in 2024Especially the 1 core per 14 days combined with "currently", does make me wonder if they are storing ready stages at Hawthorne at this moment, or less likely, we are totally missing some transports to McGregor....Nothing she said means they are actually producing at those numbers. She said they 'could' do those numbers.Stock piling boosters would be a very expensive, upper stages maybe worth having a few. Launch contracts are bought far enough in advance they can plan production to meet demand.
Quote from: Jakusb on 05/23/2018 09:01 pmSo real quick summary, please add or correct where needed:1 engine per day1 core every 14 days14 1st stages in 201820 2nd stages in 201824-28 launches in 2018roughly 18 launches in 201960% of launches globallyBFR to start flying in 2024Especially the 1 core per 14 days combined with "currently", does make me wonder if they are storing ready stages at Hawthorne at this moment, or less likely, we are totally missing some transports to McGregor....99% sure she said 30 S2s in 2018, and I believe her 2024 BFR comment was in relation to the first launch(es) to Mars
Quote from: wannamoonbase on 05/23/2018 10:02 pmQuote from: Jakusb on 05/23/2018 09:01 pmSo real quick summary, please add or correct where needed:1 engine per day1 core every 14 days14 1st stages in 201820 2nd stages in 201824-28 launches in 2018roughly 18 launches in 201960% of launches globallyBFR to start flying in 2024Especially the 1 core per 14 days combined with "currently", does make me wonder if they are storing ready stages at Hawthorne at this moment, or less likely, we are totally missing some transports to McGregor....Nothing she said means they are actually producing at those numbers. She said they 'could' do those numbers.Stock piling boosters would be a very expensive, upper stages maybe worth having a few. Launch contracts are bought far enough in advance they can plan production to meet demand.I thought they had explicitly stated on multiple occasions that they plan to stockpile Block 5 boosters as soon as they reasonably can. Am I misremembering this?
@elonmuskReplying to @EvermanSpaceX will prob build 30 to 40 rocket cores for ~300 missions over 5 years. Then BFR takes over & Falcon retires.
I believe Musk said to build 30-50 Block 5 in an interview. With a current capacity of 1 core / 2 weeks, or 26 cores/year, they may produce Falcon cores for another 1-2 years. Presumably BFR will take over as product after that, meaning BFS production is planned to start sometime 2020 ED (Elon Date) if the BFS pad jumper goes well.
Quote from: Torbjorn Larsson, OM on 05/23/2018 10:47 pmI believe Musk said to build 30-50 Block 5 in an interview. With a current capacity of 1 core / 2 weeks, or 26 cores/year, they may produce Falcon cores for another 1-2 years. Presumably BFR will take over as product after that, meaning BFS production is planned to start sometime 2020 ED (Elon Date) if the BFS pad jumper goes well.I would hazard a guess that the factory is the single most expensive piece of capital they have by far. Finishing block 5 production full stop to free up the factor for BFR is probably considerably cheaper then continuing to build block 5 at a steady pace.
I would hazard a guess that the factory is the single most expensive piece of capital they have by far.
Quote from: johnfwhitesell on 05/24/2018 02:10 pmI would hazard a guess that the factory is the single most expensive piece of capital they have by far. Any estimates what the factory could be worth?
Quote from: sleepy-martian on 05/25/2018 04:28 pmQuote from: johnfwhitesell on 05/24/2018 02:10 pmI would hazard a guess that the factory is the single most expensive piece of capital they have by far. Any estimates what the factory could be worth?The cheapest part of the factory is floor space. The expensive stuff is the tooling. Some of it is bolted to the floor and would be expensive to move. But a lot of it is mobile in that it can be moved to rearrange the floor for creating a small Raptor engine line of approximately 1/3 of the engine manufacturing floor space. To support a flight rate of 50-60 flights per year with BLK 5's flying 10 times for each set of engines they need 2/3 of the current floor space to maintaining production rates of M1DSLs and M1DVACs. Note the M1DVAC lines will double and the M1DSL lines will be the one to shrink by more than half. Going from about 150 engines to only ~60.
The cheapest part of the factory is floor space. The expensive stuff is the tooling. Some of it is bolted to the floor and would be expensive to move. But a lot of it is mobile in that it can be moved to rearrange the floor for creating a small Raptor engine line of approximately 1/3 of the engine manufacturing floor space.
Here's a detailed look at the potential launches over the next few years, showing the handover from F9 to BFR, based on the recent interview and statements from Musk et al. If it is anything close to right, there's a short term $15bn cashflow issue given the stated development costs for BFR and Starlink...
Quote from: DavidRPainting on 05/25/2018 09:03 pmHere's a detailed look at the potential launches over the next few years, showing the handover from F9 to BFR, based on the recent interview and statements from Musk et al. If it is anything close to right, there's a short term $15bn cashflow issue given the stated development costs for BFR and Starlink...Thinking about this. Due to the revenue start from operations start of Starlink in beginning 2022 and the mostly end of development of BFR in 2023, the negative cash flows mostly end by beginning of 2024. >The question is will the prospect of quick payback from Starlink draw in new investment into SpaceX that would be enough to cover the complete cost of deployment of the first half of the constellation of 2200 or a value of $4.4B. Big business finance is a colossal juggling act of revenue, investments, payouts, and spending.
>But, more importantly, SpaceX finds it "the easiest" to raise new funding compared with any private technology company, according to Robert Hilmer, global head of business development at private market analysis group Equidate."SpaceX is one of [the most], if not the most, popular pre-IPO tech companies globally," Hilmer told CNBC, speaking about how often the company is referenced in conversations with investors.>"Everywhere I travel around the world, investors of all types — individuals, family offices, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds or private equity — want to get into SpaceX," Hilmer said. "It's almost all investors I talk to."Such vast, unparalleled interest from private investors gives SpaceX "a lot of runway" to continue its "very long-term approach" to the development of its business, Hilmer said.>
Sounds like all SpaceX needs to do is ask...
7. BFR launches are supposed to cost less than Falcon 9 therefore, SpaceX should want to transition Starlink launches from Falcon 9 ASAP after it is available even if it impacts the Mars effort.
I am a very strong believer in SpaceX's future (and present..). However, I will be very surprised to see BFS hop in 2019, not to mention in the first half.I'll be glad to be proven wrong, but 2019 is only six months away. We just saw a comoposite mandrel in a tent. I think there's a lot to cover from here to a hopping test article - more than a year's worth.-----ABCD: Always Be Counting Down
Quote from: meekGee on 05/26/2018 07:30 pmI am a very strong believer in SpaceX's future (and present..). However, I will be very surprised to see BFS hop in 2019, not to mention in the first half.I'll be glad to be proven wrong, but 2019 is only six months away. We just saw a comoposite mandrel in a tent. I think there's a lot to cover from here to a hopping test article - more than a year's worth.-----ABCD: Always Be Counting DownI agree. The flight engine is in work and so is the test stand. These will have to be completed, then a test regime passed. It would be far more likely the end of 2019 is a stretch goal.
Quote from: DigitalMan on 05/26/2018 08:03 pmQuote from: meekGee on 05/26/2018 07:30 pmI am a very strong believer in SpaceX's future (and present..). However, I will be very surprised to see BFS hop in 2019, not to mention in the first half.I'll be glad to be proven wrong, but 2019 is only six months away. We just saw a comoposite mandrel in a tent. I think there's a lot to cover from here to a hopping test article - more than a year's worth.-----ABCD: Always Be Counting DownI agree. The flight engine is in work and so is the test stand. These will have to be completed, then a test regime passed. It would be far more likely the end of 2019 is a stretch goal.What I wouldn’t give to have a candid off the record conversation with Shotwell and or Musk to get the true skinny on the Mars effort. Surprisingly with more than half a year since IAC 2017 they are both saying that SpaceX is on the schedule per the IAC 2017 reveal. I find that encouraging. There is lots of information both here on the public side of the forum and much more in L2. However, with the aggregate of the data I can see one arguing that SpaceX is truly on schedule and yet one could argue the opposite. The next year will be very telling.
Quote from: docmordrid on 05/26/2018 04:42 amSounds like all SpaceX needs to do is ask...The problem with that is that that Musk's share of the stock is only slightly above 50%. If they sell much more, they stop being a majority owned company which they dont want to do. And what little wiggle room they do have they probably want to prioritize for employee incentives. So the only way they raise more money is if half that money is coming from Musk, i.e. if he sells a big chunk of his minority stake of Tesla.
Quote from: johnfwhitesell on 05/26/2018 05:05 pmQuote from: docmordrid on 05/26/2018 04:42 amSounds like all SpaceX needs to do is ask...The problem with that is that that Musk's share of the stock is only slightly above 50%. If they sell much more, they stop being a majority owned company which they dont want to do. And what little wiggle room they do have they probably want to prioritize for employee incentives. So the only way they raise more money is if half that money is coming from Musk, i.e. if he sells a big chunk of his minority stake of Tesla.There is another possibility. They could establish Starlink as a subsiduary of SpaceX and sell a minority stake in the former.
>Today, SpaceX filed with the FCC to obtain the rights to operate a massive constellation of 4,400 satellites to offer internet services from orbit, a plan that was announced last year.In the filing, SpaceX disclosed Musk’s stake in the company which surprisingly stands at 54%:“SpaceX is a privately held company in which the sole shareholder who is the beneficial owner of a 10% or greater interest is Elon Musk, as trustee of a private trust. Mr. Musk’s trust currently owns 54% of the outstanding stock of SpaceX and has voting control of 78% of the outstanding stock of SpaceX.">
There is another possibility. They could establish Starlink as a subsiduary of SpaceX and sell a minority stake in the former.
Quote from: CuddlyRocket on 05/27/2018 12:25 amThere is another possibility. They could establish Starlink as a subsiduary of SpaceX and sell a minority stake in the former.I'm not a lawyer, but isn't that pretty much the most paralyzing arrangement you could possibly come up with? Minority shareholders are protected against "oppression" whereby the company suffers in order to further the aims of the controlling interest outside the company. .... The arrangement you are talking about is reminiscent of the railway barons. Laws were put in place after those experiences.
Quote from: Jakusb on 05/23/2018 09:01 pmSo real quick summary, please add or correct where needed:1 engine per day1 core every 14 days14 1st stages in 201820 2nd stages in 201824-28 launches in 2018roughly 18 launches in 201960% of launches globallyBFR to start flying in 2024 But it takes them 18-24 months to produce an F9. I do not think they will have to plan for production of new F9 boosters 2 years from now.2nd stage will be ongoing, but even here I can see Merlin 1D (Vac) production stopping in 2019/20.
So real quick summary, please add or correct where needed:1 engine per day1 core every 14 days14 1st stages in 201820 2nd stages in 201824-28 launches in 2018roughly 18 launches in 201960% of launches globallyBFR to start flying in 2024
Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway has a number of subsidiaries with minority interests, for example.
Quote from: CuddlyRocket on 05/27/2018 08:50 amWarren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway has a number of subsidiaries with minority interests, for example.Which?https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_Berkshire_HathawayTo me it looks like the vast majority of their companies are majority owned, they have one major investment where a different company is the majority owner then they have three major investments where the companies have an independent C-suite and board. Not one of these 60 cases seems comparable to the Starlink inversion. And this in a company that is incredibly successful at judicious use of other people's capital.
The implications is that this info gives high confidence to the schedule of events stated by Ms Shotwell. Such that the stated first BFR (cargo) to Mars occurring in 2024 synod has a high likelihood and if not then, then in the 2026 synod is a near certainty. For a BFR (cargo) to do a Mars run in 2024 all the features except maybe manned ops is fully operational. Meaning BFR could do cargo runs to the Moon delivering 150mt of cargo to the surface of the Moon and then returning to Earth in 2024.This would be at about the same time frame as the first manned Orion launch on SLS does a brief Lunar flyby or brief Lunar orbital stay (only a couple of days). The missing info from her statements is when manned flights of BFR would occur. I would guess at a few years after (could be as many as 5) the BFR becoming fully operational Cargo and Tanker with demo of on-orbit refueling is completed. I estimate 2026 at the earliest and 2029 at the latest. So a manned Mars flight of BFR is likely to occur before 2030.Unfortunately the manned portion of the BFR schedules are probably not as reliable for Ms Shotwell to mention the dates for a manned mission to mars. Or did she and I missed her statement?
I do not think they will have to plan for production of new F9 boosters 2 years from now.2nd stage will be ongoing, but even here I can see Merlin 1D (Vac) production stopping in 2019/20.
Quote from: CuddlyRocket on 05/27/2018 08:50 amWarren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway has a number of subsidiaries with minority interests, for example.Which?https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_Berkshire_Hathaway
To me it looks like the vast majority of their companies are majority owned, they have one major investment where a different company is the majority owner then they have three major investments where the companies have an independent C-suite and board. Not one of these 60 cases seems comparable to the Starlink inversion. And this in a company that is incredibly successful at judicious use of other people's capital.
The point is, I believe launching Starlink as an (initially) wholly owned subsidiary makes a heck of a lot of sense, and leaves room for a lot of investment funding without relinquishing any control in SpaceX itself, as the holding company.
Quote from: Hauerg on 05/27/2018 06:20 amI do not think they will have to plan for production of new F9 boosters 2 years from now.2nd stage will be ongoing, but even here I can see Merlin 1D (Vac) production stopping in 2019/20.I think they will start stockpiling engines, not so much complete first stages. I think Elon mentioned sometime that Raptor and Merlin are similar in size so that they can repurpose the manufacturing equipment/assembly line.Since they still have to manufacture Falcon 9 second stages, they might retain some capabilities to manufacture first stages. The tooling for the main body for Falcon 9 has no use for BFR, so no repurposing that.
Aren't the tubes for hyperlink about same diameter (12.2ft/3.66m)? I believe the test tubes set up in Hawthorne could have been made with similar technology/tooling. Only need to withstand one atmosphere... friction stir welding would certainly be used for seams... framing could be moved to exterior or not.
I am a very strong believer in SpaceX's future (and present..). However, I will be very surprised to see BFS hop in 2019, not to mention in the first half.I'll be glad to be proven wrong, but 2019 is only six seven months away. We just saw a comoposite mandrel in a tent. I think there's a lot to cover from here to a hopping test article - more than a year's worth.-----ABCD: Always Be Counting Down
Quote from: meekGee on 05/26/2018 07:30 pmI am a very strong believer in SpaceX's future (and present..). However, I will be very surprised to see BFS hop in 2019, not to mention in the first half.I'll be glad to be proven wrong, but 2019 is only six seven months away. We just saw a comoposite mandrel in a tent. I think there's a lot to cover from here to a hopping test article - more than a year's worth.-----ABCD: Always Be Counting DownWhile there is still clearly plenty of work to be completed before any hop tests, six seven months is not the limit on the schedule accuracy. 13 months from today is both "more than a year" and "first half of 2019". There's no need to make the schedule look even more aggressive than it already is.
Call me crazy but I dont think first half of 2019 is actually an aggressive timeline. We are talking about a vertical flight, not a horizontal one. They could go no higher then a couple hundred feet if they wanted to. The hardest part was the fuel tank and they finished that before they even set the date. The next hardest part is the engine and they were already at nearly full scale full duration tests before they set the date. The only real unknown was the body itself. If they were trying to make an orbital vehicle that would be an ambitious timeline. But this is just a grasshopper. It could have serious structural deficiencies by orbital standards and perform the mission just fine. So building a new body within a year isn't easy but it's not superhuman.
"Completed the fuel tank"... really? Maybe I missed that. I thought we had no 9m dia construction complete yet?
Quote from: DistantTemple on 05/30/2018 08:36 pm"Completed the fuel tank"... really? Maybe I missed that. I thought we had no 9m dia construction complete yet?Then what was the big tank?
Just a test tank, of no particular significance other than that.
Quote from: johnfwhitesell on 05/30/2018 08:52 pmQuote from: DistantTemple on 05/30/2018 08:36 pm"Completed the fuel tank"... really? Maybe I missed that. I thought we had no 9m dia construction complete yet?Then what was the big tank?Just a test tank, of no particular significance other than that.
Hmm...I haven't heard that they've even started a new tank, since they tested their test tank to destruction, nevermind finished a new one.We recently heard that the 1st production engine was 'in work', not at all tested.We, to my knowledge, have not heard that there will be a grasshopper, though it seems many want to speculate such. We have heard that they plan hop tests with a BFS in 1st half of 2019, without statements of reduced construction fidelity.We know they leased land for a factory on a site without usable buildings.So... they plan to build a brand new spaceship, in a not yet built factory, and with zero parts known to be complete at this time, and fly it in about a year. What's not aggressive?
Quote from: johnfwhitesell on 05/30/2018 08:30 pmCall me crazy but I dont think first half of 2019 is actually an aggressive timeline. We are talking about a vertical flight, not a horizontal one. They could go no higher then a couple hundred feet if they wanted to. The hardest part was the fuel tank and they finished that before they even set the date. The next hardest part is the engine and they were already at nearly full scale full duration tests before they set the date. The only real unknown was the body itself. If they were trying to make an orbital vehicle that would be an ambitious timeline. But this is just a grasshopper. It could have serious structural deficiencies by orbital standards and perform the mission just fine. So building a new body within a year isn't easy but it's not superhuman.Hmm...I haven't heard that they've even started a new tank, since they tested their test tank to destruction, nevermind finished a new one.We recently heard that the 1st production engine was 'in work', not at all tested.We, to my knowledge, have not heard that there will be a grasshopper, though it seems many want to speculate such. We have heard that they plan hop tests with a BFS in 1st half of 2019, without statements of reduced construction fidelity.We know they leased land for a factory on a site without usable buildings.So... they plan to build a brand new spaceship, in a not yet built factory, and with zero parts known to be complete at this time, and fly it in about a year. What's not aggressive?
And Lars-J, SX do a lot of things we don't hear about, so your inferred logic, has a defect, and could be categorised as starting just a little on the browbeating spectrum.Edit: Perhaps I missed your irony?
Well if you (or we) haven't heard about it, it obviously isn't happening.
There is speculation that the tent where the Mandrel is will be a temporary factory. SX "must" be doing that, or similar as they could not have given the 2019 timeline knowing the factory will be hardly started by then!
We also haven't heard of manned flights to Pluto; do you presume they have those planned as well?