Author Topic: With Block 5, SpaceX to increase launch cadence and lower prices  (Read 44100 times)

Offline aero

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Twenty-five tons to LEO. Isn't that new?

Certainly would be.  But where do you find that referenced?

Here!

http://www.spacex.com/falcon9

I still see 22.8 metric tons to LEO.  Has been that way for a long while.

Yes, 50,000+ lbs.= 25 tons. So not new, I guess I haven't kept abreast of the performance numbers.
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Offline AncientU

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Twenty-five tons to LEO. Isn't that new?

Certainly would be.  But where do you find that referenced?

Here!

http://www.spacex.com/falcon9

I still see 22.8 metric tons to LEO.  Has been that way for a long while.

Yes, 50,000+ lbs.= 25 tons. So not new, I guess I haven't kept abreast of the performance numbers.

Those are numbers with the 1.71klbf Merlin rating.  The current Block 5 is 1.9klbf, so something closer to 24 tonnes to LEO.
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
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Offline RedLineTrain

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Those are numbers with the 1.71klbf Merlin rating.  The current Block 5 is 1.9klbf, so something closer to 24 tonnes to LEO.

What's your source for the current Block 5 at 1.9 klbf?  According to the Musk press call linked above, it's still 1.71 klbf, with maybe room to get to 1.73 klbf.

Offline dlapine

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Ed,

You cropped that SpaceX screen shot too much. At the bottom of that picture, it notes that:

*Performance represents max capability on fully expendable vehicle

Hard to interpret the $62M price on that page as being for reusable with that note.

As dglow noted, the discussion is about Elon said, not what the webmaster at SpaceX has updated or not. The website prices have always been a starting point for discussion with their customers, not an order form.  If I happened to have $50M burning a hole in my pocket and a payload in orbit, that's the price I'd start with in discussions with the SpaceX sales force.

Offline AncientU

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Those are numbers with the 1.71klbf Merlin rating.  The current Block 5 is 1.9klbf, so something closer to 24 tonnes to LEO.

What's your source for the current Block 5 at 1.9 klbf?  According to the Musk press call linked above, it's still 1.71 klbf, with maybe room to get to 1.73 klbf.

Quote
Must: [sic] Merlin engine thrust increased by 8%. Might be a little more room there.  #SpaceX #Falcon9 #Block5

https://twitter.com/spacebrendan/status/994649013914914818

Edit to add:

Quote
Falcon 9 Block 5 will see an 8 percent increase in thrust over older Block 4 models. Thrust-to-weight ratio even better than it was before, Musk says, which was already the best in the world for previous models.

https://twitter.com/emrekelly/status/994649234841526278

Quote
Musk: Merlin rocket engine thrust increased by 8 percent, to 190,000 lbf.

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/994649495861432321
« Last Edit: 05/17/2018 09:14 pm by AncientU »
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
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Offline RedLineTrain

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As far as I can tell, you're reading that incorrectly.  The Merlin 1D for Block 3 and Block 4 was about 175 klbf.  An 8% increase for Block 5 brought it to 190 klbf.  A 10% increase would bring it to 193 klbf.

Offline rokan2003

As dglow noted, the discussion is about Elon said, not what the webmaster at SpaceX has updated or not. The website prices have always been a starting point for discussion with their customers, not an order form.  If I happened to have $50M burning a hole in my pocket and a payload in orbit, that's the price I'd start with in discussions with the SpaceX sales force.
"What Elon Said" has often been, as I see it, a loose representation of a set of goals/ideas bouncing around in his head rather than a PR-certified truth about what is happening right now.  I tend to put more weight in "What Gwynn Said" when it comes to hard facts. 

It does seem clear from the interview and the Space News story that SpaceX reduced prices to incentivize the early re-flown booster launches, which were essentially experiments.  I await hard evidence that the company has or will be officially cutting its standard launch prices as a result of cost savings from first stage reuse. 

 - Ed Kyle
SpaceX's CEO gave the price of a reflown booster in the interview referenced upthread. It's USD 50 million. It beggars belief that you'd need more evidence than a price from the horse's mouth. Amazing what an emotional attachment to a deeply held belief can do to rational thought.

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Offline Rebel44

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There is no ambiguity or conflict here, I do not believe your interpretation is correct.
Screen capture from just now. 

 - Ed Kyle

$50M is a (base) price if you agree to use flown 1st stage - if you want a new 1st stage it makes sense for SpaceX to keep charging old (higher) price.

Offline dlapine

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As dglow noted, the discussion is about Elon said, not what the webmaster at SpaceX has updated or not. The website prices have always been a starting point for discussion with their customers, not an order form.  If I happened to have $50M burning a hole in my pocket and a payload in orbit, that's the price I'd start with in discussions with the SpaceX sales force.
"What Elon Said" has often been, as I see it, a loose representation of a set of goals/ideas bouncing around in his head rather than a PR-certified truth about what is happening right now.  I tend to put more weight in "What Gwynn Said" when it comes to hard facts. 

It does seem clear from the interview and the Space News story that SpaceX reduced prices to incentivize the early re-flown booster launches, which were essentially experiments.  I await hard evidence that the company has or will be officially cutting its standard launch prices as a result of cost savings from first stage reuse. 

 - Ed Kyle

The current price to a customer of a re-used SpaceX booster is $50M. You have evidence of that. Yes, Elon's discussions in public are not always vetted, but this one is straightword and reflective of available capabilities today.

I understand that you do not believe that the published SpaceX price reflects a reduction in operating costs to SpaceX due to the re-use of it's boosters. That's OK. Without having access to their financial records, you may never have "hard evidence" that the costs of re-using a booster outweigh some other mode of operation, in practice or theory. Does that make this capability ($50M per launch) unaffordable for SpaceX in the long run? Maybe.

But this thread isn't about whether re-use saves SpaceX money, it's about the price of a launch decreasing for SpaceX customers. If they select a re-used booster, the customer will spend $12M less on a launch today, as compared to the price before a block 5 F9 launched.

That will have an effect on anyone else in the launch business, or seeking to get started.

Online dglow

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It's fine to wonder, but with all due respect: your manner of questioning – including your response to genuine answers to those questions – feels a lot like FUD... or something. And it isn't the first time.

Online abaddon

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"What Elon Said" has often been, as I see it, a loose representation of a set of goals/ideas bouncing around in his head rather than a PR-certified truth about what is happening right now.  I tend to put more weight in "What Gwynn Said" when it comes to hard facts.
I get that you really want to not believe it, but the information we have directly from the CEO of the company, which is not contradicted by any other information from anyone else, tells us that the price for a previously flown booster is now $50 million.

So, you're (currently, with actual evidence, until proven otherwise) wrong.

It isn't just me.  As I noted in my original post, Caleb Henry of Space News reported a different interpretation of Elon's statement than NasaSpaceFlight.
No, he didn't.  I quoted the article, and your interpretation was incorrect.  You did not quote all of the relevant text.

The only evidence you have here for your opinion is that you don't trust Elon.  Period.
« Last Edit: 05/17/2018 10:46 pm by abaddon »

Offline envy887

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On February 6 Hans Koenigsmann said SpaceX was going to phase out discounts for reused boosters.

http://spacenews.com/dont-expect-deep-discounts-on-preflown-spacex-boosters/

Offline John Alan

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The article should have been titled... in my opinion...  ;)

"With Block 5, SpaceX plans to increase their launch cadence, and may lower their expenses per launch"

The use of "prices" was a poor choice and led to the above arguments...  :P

SpaceX can, should and will charge what the market will bear... in my opinion...
And I believe the 50 mil was just EM daring the competition to "beat that"...
Because he could go that low, if the market forces him to do so... ;)
« Last Edit: 05/18/2018 01:01 am by John Alan »

Offline mme

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On February 6 Hans Koenigsmann said SpaceX was going to phase out discounts for reused boosters.

http://spacenews.com/dont-expect-deep-discounts-on-preflown-spacex-boosters/

Quote
MOUNTAIN VIEW, California – SpaceX customers should not expect deep discounts when they opt to launch satellites on previously flown boosters instead of new ones, at least not initially, said Hans Koenigsmann, vice president of build and flight reliability for Hawthorne, California-based SpaceX.

Although SpaceX intends to decrease launch costs over time, it will not immediately offer significant discounts on preflown boosters while it recovers its investment in the technology it is developing to make rockets reusable, including its “navy” of drone ships and telemetry boats, Koenigsmann said Feb. 6 at the Small Satellite Symposium here.

Plus, there may be no reason to offer steep discounts on rockets with previously flown boosters because  “I’m not sure that booster has any wear and tear on it that makes it worse,” Koenigsmann said.

You dropped the adjectives he used every time he talked about discounts. I read this as we "we no longer need to entice people to fly reused boosters because we've proven them reliable."  So there is no drastic discount. I bet SES paid a lot less than $50 million for that first flight.

All of this is consistent with dropping price to $50 million and then charging a premium if you insist on a new booster that SpaceX does not need to otherwise build.
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Offline Kabloona

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Didn't Elon say they invested something like $1 billion in developing reusability? That's a huge chunk of change to recoup. No wonder they're not in any hurry to cut their own throats.

Offline envy887

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On February 6 Hans Koenigsmann said SpaceX was going to phase out discounts for reused boosters.

http://spacenews.com/dont-expect-deep-discounts-on-preflown-spacex-boosters/

Quote
MOUNTAIN VIEW, California – SpaceX customers should not expect deep discounts when they opt to launch satellites on previously flown boosters instead of new ones, at least not initially, said Hans Koenigsmann, vice president of build and flight reliability for Hawthorne, California-based SpaceX.

Although SpaceX intends to decrease launch costs over time, it will not immediately offer significant discounts on preflown boosters while it recovers its investment in the technology it is developing to make rockets reusable, including its “navy” of drone ships and telemetry boats, Koenigsmann said Feb. 6 at the Small Satellite Symposium here.

Plus, there may be no reason to offer steep discounts on rockets with previously flown boosters because  “I’m not sure that booster has any wear and tear on it that makes it worse,” Koenigsmann said.

You dropped the adjectives he used every time he talked about discounts. I read this as we "we no longer need to entice people to fly reused boosters because we've proven them reliable."  So there is no drastic discount. I bet SES paid a lot less than $50 million for that first flight.

All of this is consistent with dropping price to $50 million and then charging a premium if you insist on a new booster that SpaceX does not need to otherwise build.

The direct quote from Hans was:

Quote
...people always ask the question, "so how much does it cost less now, because I want to go fly a previously flown booster?", and the answer is, well, you know, actually, no.

He did say to expect prices to decline slowly, as SpaceX recovers the investment into reuse. But he emphasized that a "flight-proven" launch should not be priced lower than a new one.

I think what Elon said is in line with both statements from Hans. The price for a typical cost is going down, and the difference between new and flight proven is going away if you accept that flight proven is just as safe.

Hans' talk is free to stream here, that quote is 26 minutes in:
https://vimeo.com/ondemand/137464/255675531

Offline johnfwhitesell

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5
Didn't Elon say they invested something like $1 billion in developing reusability? That's a huge chunk of change to recoup. No wonder they're not in any hurry to cut their own throats.

It's not that much to recoup when you consider the flight rate it allows for.  A billion dollars would be a difficult profit target if they were building 10 boosters a year and doing 10 flights a year.  But with reflown boosters in the mix that rate can get a lot higher, maybe 30 times this year and once a week in 2020.

Offline wannamoonbase

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I think we can also look at Tesla, Starlink and the nature of tech startups. 

Having the books balance and paying your debt isn’t something they spend much time thinking about. 

If your brain is busy disturbing entrenched industries you don’t think about such mundane things as accounting.  (That’s for some unimaginative lackie to figure out)
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Online abaddon

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On February 6 Hans Koenigsmann said SpaceX was going to phase out discounts for reused boosters.
And that's fine, but that was in February, and it's May.  Elon's statement is much more recent and it is more definitive.

It may be proven wrong, but right now, it's the best information we have, and it is very specific about numbers ($60 million new, $50 million previously flown) instead of vague qualifiers.

Online Robotbeat

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10 reuses of the same block 5 booster along with 24hr turnaround set for 2019 is very impressive. They’ll prove the 10x and refurb plan long before they actually need it (if they ever do).

Even if he doesn’t agree with it as strategy, Elon is building a huge (candy filled) moat around the launch business.

They've already created a massive barrier to entry and this isn't going to make it any easier.

Ross.
There’s a pretty big opening for people in the 1 ton payload market. Well below Falcon 9.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

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