Poll

Should the poll be deleted?

Yes
38 (69.1%)
No
17 (30.9%)

Total Members Voted: 55

Voting closed: 08/20/2018 03:29 pm


Author Topic: Mars - The Rest Of The Story  (Read 33161 times)

Offline butters

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #20 on: 05/13/2018 05:10 am »
I think SpaceX needs to do an uncrewed BFS round trip on their own initiative and avoid any NASA involvement until that milestone is achieved. This requires a propellant plant, which in turn generates requirements for power and possibly water. This won't be cheap or easy, but SpaceX needs to do this to prove the system for human missions and to establish a strong negotiating position with Congress and NASA on proceeding with the first human expedition to Mars.

They cannot self-fund a human mission, but the uncrewed round trip to Mars with a human-scale spaceship (and then some) is the next most ambitious target, and it's right on the edge of what SpaceX might be able to achieve on their own. There's a line that Space simply cannot cross without government largesse, let's be honest, but they should try to get right up against that line if they want the SpaceX vision of Mars colonization to carry weight when it comes to involving NASA and other partners.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #21 on: 05/13/2018 06:35 am »
If they can self-fund all that, then they can self-fund a human mission.
« Last Edit: 05/13/2018 06:27 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline M.E.T.

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #22 on: 05/13/2018 08:19 am »
I note Elon’s recent estimate that Falcon 9 will launch maybe 300 more missions in its lifetime, before being replaced by BFR. I also note his statement that a reused F9 launch sells for around $50m, giving us a ballpark total revenue of maybe $15 billion from the remainder of F9’s planned useful life.

This $15 billion total is what will have to fund BFR development, construction and the mission costs up to the landing of the first pair of BFS ships on Mars.

Revenue from Starlink can likely be ignored in the interim, given that Starlink itself will require around $10 billion of investment to become operational.  So net contributions from Starlink is likely a longer term goal, after initial investment has been recouped.

Furthermore, much of the $15 billion F9 revenue will go into sustaining existing SpaceX costs, with profits being the more relevant number that can go into supporting Mars plans. So reinvested profits plus normal R&D budget gives you maybe $5-7 billion out of the $15 billion that can support the Mars plans until 2022.

That is barely enough to design and build BFR.

My point with the above being that SpaceX don’t have the funds to finance rovers, power generation, ISRU, and all the other developments needed for Mars colonization. They no doubt have conceptual plans for what is required, but they clearly mean it when they say others will have to come to the party to realize these plans.

Building the rocket and successfully landing it on Mars is the big leap forward that is meant to inspire others to jump on the bandwagon.

Offline Nomadd

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #23 on: 05/13/2018 09:24 am »
I note Elon’s recent estimate that Falcon 9 will launch maybe 300 more missions in its lifetime, before being replaced by BFR. I also note his statement that a reused F9 launch sells for around $50m, giving us a ballpark total revenue of maybe $15 billion from the remainder of F9’s planned useful life.

This $15 billion total is what will have to fund BFR development, construction and the mission costs up to the landing of the first pair of BFS ships on Mars.

Revenue from Starlink can likely be ignored in the interim, given that Starlink itself will require around $10 billion of investment to become operational.  So net contributions from Starlink is likely a longer term goal, after initial investment has been recouped.

Furthermore, much of the $15 billion F9 revenue will go into sustaining existing SpaceX costs, with profits being the more relevant number that can go into supporting Mars plans. So reinvested profits plus normal R&D budget gives you maybe $5-7 billion out of the $15 billion that can support the Mars plans until 2022.

That is barely enough to design and build BFR.

My point with the above being that SpaceX don’t have the funds to finance rovers, power generation, ISRU, and all the other developments needed for Mars colonization. They no doubt have conceptual plans for what is required, but they clearly mean it when they say others will have to come to the party to realize these plans.

Building the rocket and successfully landing it on Mars is the big leap forward that is meant to inspire others to jump on the bandwagon.
It is possible that SpaceX has accounting practices that go beyond 2nd grade math and these things called investors to boot. Projects like Starlink are a little more complicated than paying off the cost before you can use the revenue somewhere else. Investors aren't loaning them money. They're buying into the business.
 People and corporations have been "Coming to the party" for ten years.
« Last Edit: 05/13/2018 09:27 am by Nomadd »
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Offline Oersted

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #24 on: 05/13/2018 09:45 am »
I just hope SpaceX finds the right balance regarding work force management. BFR/S and Mars is a marathon, not a sprint.

On the one hand they cannot overwork and burn out their trusted work force which by now has gained unprallelled experience with the Falcons.

On the other hand it won't be economically feasible for SpaceX if the project turns into a rudderless slow-moving money pit. Governments can sustain that, not private companies.

I think Human Resources will be the key for this endeavour. SpaceX will have to ensure sustainable work force management. They can't just wing it.


Offline M.E.T.

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #25 on: 05/13/2018 10:07 am »
I note Elon’s recent estimate that Falcon 9 will launch maybe 300 more missions in its lifetime, before being replaced by BFR. I also note his statement that a reused F9 launch sells for around $50m, giving us a ballpark total revenue of maybe $15 billion from the remainder of F9’s planned useful life.

This $15 billion total is what will have to fund BFR development, construction and the mission costs up to the landing of the first pair of BFS ships on Mars.

Revenue from Starlink can likely be ignored in the interim, given that Starlink itself will require around $10 billion of investment to become operational.  So net contributions from Starlink is likely a longer term goal, after initial investment has been recouped.

Furthermore, much of the $15 billion F9 revenue will go into sustaining existing SpaceX costs, with profits being the more relevant number that can go into supporting Mars plans. So reinvested profits plus normal R&D budget gives you maybe $5-7 billion out of the $15 billion that can support the Mars plans until 2022.

That is barely enough to design and build BFR.

My point with the above being that SpaceX don’t have the funds to finance rovers, power generation, ISRU, and all the other developments needed for Mars colonization. They no doubt have conceptual plans for what is required, but they clearly mean it when they say others will have to come to the party to realize these plans.

Building the rocket and successfully landing it on Mars is the big leap forward that is meant to inspire others to jump on the bandwagon.
It is possible that SpaceX has accounting practices that go beyond 2nd grade math and these things called investors to boot. Projects like Starlink are a little more complicated than paying off the cost before you can use the revenue somewhere else. Investors aren't loaning them money. They're buying into the business.

 People and corporations have been "Coming to the party" for ten years.

Surprisingly harsh response to a post that was making a broad point rather than delving into the details of SpaceX accounting practices. Be that as it may. Elon is on record as saying that the money diverted from F9 production once Block V is locked in will be what funds the development of BFR.  Starlink rollout is planned over the next four years or so, during which a lot of capital investment will be required. And investors in Starlink will do so in the expectation of long term returns, not because they want to make charitable contributions to Elon's Mars colonization plans.

SpaceX will of course earn a major share of those profits, as they will likely remain a majority owner of the Starlink project, but I don't think it is unreasonable to think that Starlink payback is only likely to start rolling in after the 2022 intended Mars mission.

Somehow I expect that Elon will not want to repeat the Tesla debt and negative cash flow conundrums with SpaceX, which up to now has been an example of a very solid, cash flow positive business by contrast. As Elon said, between the original ITS presentation in 2016 and the updated BFR reveal in 2017 they realized they have to marry the need to get to Mars in his lifetime with the need for SpaceX to not go bankrupt.

So all things considered, I think SpaceX is going to be stretched as it is to get a functional BFR safely on Mars by 2022/2024. Splashing cash on all of the other technology needed to build a colony on Mars is going to need outside partners who are willing to invest in the project, and probably for reasons other than pure financial returns.

That's my opinion, at least. Based on 2nd grade math or not.
« Last Edit: 05/13/2018 10:08 am by M.E.T. »

Offline speedevil

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #26 on: 05/13/2018 10:09 am »
If NASA, or more importantly, NASA-like practices get involved, you've already lost.
If you can get stuff to Mars for $150/kg, and your rover looks anything like curiosity cost-wise, you've lost.
(or at least wasted wholly the opportunity)

Curiosity cost a couple of billion dollars.
For a couple of billion dollars, you can send 500 lightly modified tesla model 3s, as well as a crew to teleoperate them from orbit.

(assuming throwaway BFS, if ISRU was working, it's 5000)

Curiosity teaches us almost precisely nothing about what is desired for a rover that costs under $100K.
It is not repairable, the wheels are fragile little beautiful flowers that shatter on impact, ...
In many ways, if the choice is to send such a Rover, over sending 150 tons of water, I'd rather send the water.

Offline Slarty1080

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #27 on: 05/13/2018 11:46 am »
I can see that many in the aerospace industry won’t take SpaceX seriously about the BFR until it's flying. The real question is how much flying is required before the BFR becomes a game changer? And by that I mean offers of partnership and large quantities of cash? I suspect that 2-3 might generate some tentative discussions whilst 4 would be the breakthrough point.

1.   BFS low altitude hops up to 10km
2.   BFS high altitude hops suborbital
3.   BFB test flight with recovery. BFS carried and recovered
4.   BFR orbital mission and return to earth unmanned
5.   BFR orbital mission with satellite deployment
6.   BFR manned orbital mission
7.   BFR refuel in orbit
8.   BFR manned operation BEO
9.   BFR unmanned Mars mission
10.   BFR manned Mars mission
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Offline hplan

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #28 on: 05/13/2018 11:52 am »
In many ways, if the choice is to send such a Rover, over sending 150 tons of water, I'd rather send the water.

Is 150 tonnes of methane enough to return a BFS from Mars? Could SpaceX send a BFS filled with methane as cargo and get O2 from the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, by some process, to make it possible for a BFS to return from Mars without first mining water?



Online Dalhousie

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #29 on: 05/13/2018 11:55 am »
In many ways, if the choice is to send such a Rover, over sending 150 tons of water, I'd rather send the water.

Is 150 tonnes of methane enough to return a BFS from Mars? Could SpaceX send a BFS filled with methane as cargo and get O2 from the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, by some process, to make it possible for a BFS to return from Mars without first mining water?

you can bring hydrogen from Earth and react it with martian CO2 to form methane and water in a sabatier reactor.  Then electrolyse the water to form oxygen and hydrogen and further react the hydrogen to form more methane and water. 
Apologies in advance for any lack of civility - it's unintended

Offline niwax

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #30 on: 05/13/2018 12:06 pm »
In many ways, if the choice is to send such a Rover, over sending 150 tons of water, I'd rather send the water.

Is 150 tonnes of methane enough to return a BFS from Mars? Could SpaceX send a BFS filled with methane as cargo and get O2 from the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, by some process, to make it possible for a BFS to return from Mars without first mining water?

If you go that route, having it send a dedicated return vehicle is much more efficient. BFS has a pretty high dry mass because it's supposed to take some hundred people per journey. If all you want is to guarantee return of the first five settlers, send a conventional return stage which fits comfortably in a few hundred tons.
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Offline su27k

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #31 on: 05/13/2018 12:12 pm »
My point with the above being that SpaceX don’t have the funds to finance rovers, power generation, ISRU, and all the other developments needed for Mars colonization. They no doubt have conceptual plans for what is required, but they clearly mean it when they say others will have to come to the party to realize these plans.

Note OP is asking about first manned mission to Mars, not colonization. There's a huge difference between funding a Mars city for colonists and a small base for 6~12 astronauts.

Also this has been repeated many times: ISRU is part of the architecture, that's why originally it's called Interplanetary Transport System, they wouldn't leave ISRU to others, they're working on it.

As for rovers, if someone can contribute that's great, if not I think it's relatively easy to DIY. Someone brought up Lunar Roving Vehicle as an example, that thing only costs ~$200M of today's dollars to develop, I'm sure SpaceX can do better with today's electric car chassis.

This just leaves the surface suit and habitat, but they won't need these until they sent people, so there's still some time.

Offline wes_wilson

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #32 on: 05/13/2018 12:13 pm »
I suspect SpaceX simply doesn't have the time or money right now to build rovers when the rocket hasn't been built yet.

There are two things that are well-proven on Mars:

1) rovers
and
2) solar power

Scale is different, speed is different. But there's a real engineering experience base with now literally decades of elapsed mission time. We know what materials work, and what don't. We know that putting a solar array on top of a hill means it'll get cleaned regularly. We know not to use super thin aluminum wheels. We even know (from Phoenix) about digging in icy soil.

So honestly, if you're going to pick something to wait until the last minute on, it might be those two.

Yeah, I agree.  Besides, there's a soon to be off-the-shelf electric vehicle in the pipeline.
https://electrek.co/2017/11/17/tesla-pickup-truck-first-image-unveil/

There's also the falcon heavy tesla roadster....  While a cool publicity stunt, they also no doubt collected data about outgassing, battery life, and other performance info giving them a little bit of data about how their vehicles hold up in conditions harsher than mars.   I've also always suspected that media grabbing Tesla features like "bio-weapon defense mode" have a longer term dual purpose use.

So my future bet is they don't engineer a Mars buggy at all.  I think they've been doing it for years into everything they build at Tesla and when it's time to go they'll be using COTS tesla trucks, perhaps with custom tires.

Edit: Tying back to OP.  I think the rest of the story for rovers is playing out in public view at Tesla as they move into trucks both semi and personal.  Those are your first Mars movers.



« Last Edit: 05/13/2018 12:14 pm by wes_wilson »
@SpaceX "When can I buy my ticket to Mars?"

Offline robert_d

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #33 on: 05/13/2018 12:14 pm »

Specifically I would like to have a discussion on things other than BFR.  What is needed, by when, and when should we hope to have details?
 

THIS is what someone should hire Zubrin to work on. Keep him busy and out of trouble. Let him make a contribution that might actually affect reality. ALL the Mars folks should start winnowing down the myriad of ideas out there and get to a consensus subset that could actually begin fabrication soon. If they don't start designing and building stuff soon, even 2024 might come and go with a BFR available without a payload.

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #34 on: 05/13/2018 12:27 pm »
My point with the above being that SpaceX don’t have the funds to finance rovers, power generation, ISRU, and all the other developments needed for Mars colonization. They no doubt have conceptual plans for what is required, but they clearly mean it when they say others will have to come to the party to realize these plans.

Note OP is asking about first manned mission to Mars, not colonization. There's a huge difference between funding a Mars city for colonists and a small base for 6~12 astronauts.

Also this has been repeated many times: ISRU is part of the architecture, that's why originally it's called Interplanetary Transport System, they wouldn't leave ISRU to others, they're working on it.

As for rovers, if someone can contribute that's great, if not I think it's relatively easy to DIY. Someone brought up Lunar Roving Vehicle as an example, that thing only costs ~$200M of today's dollars to develop, I'm sure SpaceX can do better with today's electric car chassis.

This just leaves the surface suit and habitat, but they won't need these until they sent people, so there's still some time.

With reference to the bolded above, that's a fair distinction. I guess my point of departure is that I don't yet see how the "money diverted from F9 construction" adds up to the $10 billion needed to design and build the BFR and BFS over the next 4 years. Total SpaceX revenue barely gets to $10 billion in that period, nevermind the much smaller portion of that revenue that can be focused exclusively on building the BFR.

So, while that challenge remains, I personally struggle to see how there is money left over for other endeavours, critical as they may be for the architecture. Sure, over the next 10-15 years I can see those funds becoming available, once Starlink starts paying off.

But before that (over the next 4 years in other words), some kind of capital raising or personal investment by Musk would seem to be required to raise the stated $10 billion required for the project. But then, I could be missing something big in the above picture.

Offline speedevil

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #35 on: 05/13/2018 12:34 pm »
If they don't start designing and building stuff soon, even 2024 might come and go with a BFR available without a payload.
2022 is some time away.
Recently, it was stated the ambition is to get F9 down to $6M/launch incremental costs.
Even without BFS, 30 tons to Mars injection or so, with refilling of S2 in orbit would be plausible at under $100M/mission, for SpaceX, perhaps entirely without BFS.

Offline robert_d

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #36 on: 05/13/2018 12:40 pm »
Can I make a friendly suggestion that because this thread is about Mars and predicated on BFR, it ought to be moved to the SpaceX BFR section?

I actually think the opposite. In my opinion it should be in the Human Spaceflight - Mars section. That way (hopefully) the discussion will not revert back to a BFR/SpaceX only discussion. SPaceX will not be able to fund all of this. As a collaboration (possibly multinational) a division of labor will need to be established. Not wanting to turn this into a political thread, but a certain "modularity" of the equipment should be kept in mind.

Offline speedevil

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #37 on: 05/13/2018 12:42 pm »
So, while that challenge remains, I personally struggle to see how there is money left over for other endeavours, critical as they may be for the architecture. Sure, over the next 10-15 years I can see those funds becoming available, once Starlink starts paying off.

But before that (over the next 4 years in other words), some kind of capital raising or personal investment by Musk would seem to be required to raise the stated $10 billion required for the project. But then, I could be missing something big in the above picture.

Starlink is required to be launched in 6 years time from April this year, so April 2024 or so.
However, once you have the first plane launched or so - 50 - you can demonstrate the full capability of the constellation at nominal speeds and performances, to sell to investors.
This is plausible this year even, maybe next, even if consumer service is a year or two out.

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #38 on: 05/13/2018 12:55 pm »
So, while that challenge remains, I personally struggle to see how there is money left over for other endeavours, critical as they may be for the architecture. Sure, over the next 10-15 years I can see those funds becoming available, once Starlink starts paying off.

But before that (over the next 4 years in other words), some kind of capital raising or personal investment by Musk would seem to be required to raise the stated $10 billion required for the project. But then, I could be missing something big in the above picture.

Starlink is required to be launched in 6 years time from April this year, so April 2024 or so.
However, once you have the first plane launched or so - 50 - you can demonstrate the full capability of the constellation at nominal speeds and performances, to sell to investors.
This is plausible this year even, maybe next, even if consumer service is a year or two out.

Yes, but any shares sold at that point are invariably sold at a massive discount compared to what it would be worth once the company is fully operational and earning huge annual revenues.

So essentially you would be selling for a few billion what could be worth tens or even hundreds of billions a few years later. Money sacrificed for no reason other than to move your Mars landing date forward by 5-10 years. Money that is lost to the colonization project in future years, and instead flowing out as returns into the pockets of those early investors.

Offline speedevil

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #39 on: 05/13/2018 12:58 pm »
So, while that challenge remains, I personally struggle to see how there is money left over for other endeavours, critical as they may be for the architecture. Sure, over the next 10-15 years I can see those funds becoming available, once Starlink starts paying off.

But before that (over the next 4 years in other words), some kind of capital raising or personal investment by Musk would seem to be required to raise the stated $10 billion required for the project. But then, I could be missing something big in the above picture.

Starlink is required to be launched in 6 years time from April this year, so April 2024 or so.
However, once you have the first plane launched or so - 50 - you can demonstrate the full capability of the constellation at nominal speeds and performances, to sell to investors.
This is plausible this year even, maybe next, even if consumer service is a year or two out.

Yes, but any shares sold at that point are invariably sold at a massive discount compared to what it would be worth once the company is fully operational and earning huge annual revenues.
You might not be selling shares, but bonds, having demonstrated the full capacity of the system to investors, so the risk goes down considerably.
Obligation to repay $XB at 30% interest, over 5 years for example.

 

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