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Voting closed: 08/20/2018 03:29 pm


Author Topic: Mars - The Rest Of The Story  (Read 33154 times)

Offline testguy

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Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« on: 05/12/2018 06:33 pm »
Now that Falcon 9 Block 5 has been successfully demonstrated, same with Falcon Heavy ( yes I understand it was not Block 5 hardware), and Dragon 2 will be demonstrated soon.  BFR appears to have a roadmap falling into place for its fabrication, development and launch facility, be it at the Cape or from Texas.  Even Raptor now has several thousand seconds of testing as reported this week.  Given all this, I began to wonder what are the things not yet revealed in the near term (going out 6 years) Mars program and when should we hope to see them revealed. 

Specifically I would like to have a discussion on things other than BFR.  What is needed, by when, and when should we hope to have details?
 
Details such as, but not limited to:
     Regulatory approval
     Spacesuits
     Rovers
     Propellant manufacturing on Mars
     Possible teaming with other(s)
            NASA, orther commercial ventures, other country's space programs
     Pre-Mars manned flight demonstrations
     Astronauts selection
     Astronaut training program
     Communications
     Flight Plans
     Payload itemization for cargo flights
 

Let assume that BFR continues to hit its schedule milestones and is indeed ready for the cargo mission(s) in 2022 and Manned Mars flights in 2024 and all the GSE is in place at the launch site.  It is not the objective of this thread to get into a discussion about why or why not BFR will meet those dates, let's just assume it will be ready.
  Given that premise, then I for one would hope that more will be defined.  Yes SpaceX is not a public company and does not have to  reveal anything, but they are not in competition with anyone for this program.  However, it would be great to learn more about the other needed things to give more credibility to the program.


Offline meekGee

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #1 on: 05/12/2018 07:51 pm »
Ever since SpaceX laid out their plans, I was curious about one thing: A concrete plan for surface power generation.

Saying "solar" doesn't cut it.

- What is the planned power demand and production capacity?
- What is the tech, generally?  (Si, III-V? Rigid/inflatable?  Tracking?  Cleaning?)
- How will they bootstrap?
- Any concrete plans to make parts of it on Mars?




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Offline testguy

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #2 on: 05/12/2018 08:00 pm »
Ever since SpaceX laid out their plans, I was curious about one thing: A concrete plan for surface power generation.

Saying "solar" doesn't cut it.

- What is the planned power demand and production capacity?
- What is the tech, generally?  (Si, III-V? Rigid/inflatable?  Tracking?  Cleaning?)
- How will they bootstrap?
- Any concrete plans to make parts of it on Mars?




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ABCD: Always Be Counting Down

It seams the hardware would be on the cargo flights because it will need to be up and running for propellant generation.  Anyone care to speculate on its mass, how does it get deployed,  battery mass and how to maintain?

Offline testguy

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #3 on: 05/12/2018 08:14 pm »
No doubt SpaceX has generated by now conceptual 3-D models of the pressurized portion of the BFS.  How cool would it be if they released  a Virtual Reality version of the interior of the spaceship now to build excitment?  We already know Elon enjoys teasing other projects of his. I believe SpaceX will be generating it anyway to aid in the spaceship design and for training.  Personnally I would buy any equipment necessary to run that software.

Offline speedevil

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #4 on: 05/12/2018 08:46 pm »
It seams the hardware would be on the cargo flights because it will need to be up and running for propellant generation.  Anyone care to speculate on its mass, how does it get deployed,  battery mass and how to maintain?
See the Powering martian civilisation from ebay thread.
In short, one BFS, using off-the-shelf panels and tesla class batteries can provide of the order of 500kW continuous throughout most of the year.

In addition, the solar panels the BFS has been using throughout the trip may be re-rigged and provide 10-20kW on the surface with no external deployment.
500kW is enough electricity from one BFS to do around a BFS worth of fuel every year.

Offline ChrML

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #5 on: 05/12/2018 08:51 pm »
Tbh I think SpaceX is hoping for NASA or someone else says "Hey, we can help with power, habitats, etc...".

And they may be right, once BFR seems plausible and transport is possible, they will probably get help building infrastructure.

Offline butters

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #6 on: 05/12/2018 09:22 pm »
The payload manifest for the first two cargo landers will be a challenge to design and edit.

From what we've seen so far, I think it's reasonable to baseline a crane-type cargo deployment system. It may be possible to do without rolling pallets, but rolling pallets would make things a lot easier. Self-propelled pallets vs. dedicated tractors is an interesting trade.

We can safely assume battery packs and solar panels are aboard the first landers. I think we can mostly imagine what a battery pallet would look like. In contrast, designing the solar modules will demand more clever creativity.

The propellant/oxygen plant is clearly the most critical electrical load which needs to be proved out in its actual operating environment advance of human missions.

A regolith mover of some kind will probably be necessary to ensure that this infrastructure can be deployed robotically on the surface.

It would be prudent to load mostly if not entirely identical payload manifests on both landers. The loss of one of the two landers should not set back the program by an entire synodic period. Much of the payload mass on these missions will be dedicated to infrastructure which is horizontally scalable in nature anyway.

It will be important to make an early assessment of BFS liveability in Mars gravity. How well can the ship's pressurized volume adapt from orbit to surface habitation? If the initial crew cannot live comfortably in the BFS on the surface while venturing out to assemble a longer-term home on the surface, then that complicates the precursor mission requirements.

Offline philw1776

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #7 on: 05/12/2018 09:35 pm »
Well before cargo flights comes the plan for landing site selection & the criteria.  Satellite surveys?  Landing/samples? SpaceX's LS selection criteria would be very different from NASA's.  Yes, both these days look for water for iSRU, but a base morphing into a colony has very different scale of water requirements.  NASA prioritizes science, aerology (geology) and astrobiology.  SpaceX likely prioritizes ISRU beyond water.  Building materials, minerals and chemical resources to build industry to sustain a presence.

No public indication as yet from SpaceX of any landing site selection approach.
FULL SEND!!!!

Offline meekGee

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #8 on: 05/12/2018 10:04 pm »
It seams the hardware would be on the cargo flights because it will need to be up and running for propellant generation.  Anyone care to speculate on its mass, how does it get deployed,  battery mass and how to maintain?
See the Powering martian civilisation from ebay thread.
In short, one BFS, using off-the-shelf panels and tesla class batteries can provide of the order of 500kW continuous throughout most of the year.

In addition, the solar panels the BFS has been using throughout the trip may be re-rigged and provide 10-20kW on the surface with no external deployment.
500kW is enough electricity from one BFS to do around a BFS worth of fuel every year.
I read the thread, but I want to hear SpaceX's story too... 

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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #9 on: 05/12/2018 10:14 pm »
It seams the hardware would be on the cargo flights because it will need to be up and running for propellant generation.  Anyone care to speculate on its mass, how does it get deployed,  battery mass and how to maintain?
See the Powering martian civilisation from ebay thread.
In short, one BFS, using off-the-shelf panels and tesla class batteries can provide of the order of 500kW continuous throughout most of the year.

In addition, the solar panels the BFS has been using throughout the trip may be re-rigged and provide 10-20kW on the surface with no external deployment.
500kW is enough electricity from one BFS to do around a BFS worth of fuel every year.
I read the thread, but I want to hear SpaceX's story too... 

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ABCD: Always Be Counting Down
SpaceX is under no such obligation. But if you’re interested in what SpaceX has looked at, there are hints.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline meekGee

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #10 on: 05/12/2018 10:40 pm »
It seams the hardware would be on the cargo flights because it will need to be up and running for propellant generation.  Anyone care to speculate on its mass, how does it get deployed,  battery mass and how to maintain?
See the Powering martian civilisation from ebay thread.
In short, one BFS, using off-the-shelf panels and tesla class batteries can provide of the order of 500kW continuous throughout most of the year.

In addition, the solar panels the BFS has been using throughout the trip may be re-rigged and provide 10-20kW on the surface with no external deployment.
500kW is enough electricity from one BFS to do around a BFS worth of fuel every year.
I read the thread, but I want to hear SpaceX's story too... 

-----
ABCD: Always Be Counting Down
SpaceX is under no such obligation. But if you’re interested in what SpaceX has looked at, there are hints.

Why bring that up?  Of course they're not under obligation, nobody ever said they were.

But compare to what they've divulged on BFx: Structure, propulsion, Dry weight, GTOW, thrust, materials, performance, Conops... 

So the OP is right to ask - when will we hear about the rest of the story?  And to me, power is the #1 system of interest, and to a similar level of detail.

The title of Musk's presentations, after all, was not "BFx".  It was "making life interplanetary".  He wants to fly BFS to Mars in 6 years, I think the rest of the story is definitely called.
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Offline testguy

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #11 on: 05/12/2018 11:23 pm »
Tbh I think SpaceX is hoping for NASA or someone else says "Hey, we can help with power, habitats, etc...".

And they may be right, once BFR seems plausible and transport is possible, they will probably get help building infrastructure.

I agree it would be nice for others to come on board at some time.  However, with the schedule for the first cargo flights only 4 years out they need to be planning now for the cargo on those flights. Waiting until demonstration flights on BFR in 2020 is too late IMHO.

Offline obi-wan

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #12 on: 05/12/2018 11:37 pm »
Can I make a friendly suggestion that because this thread is about Mars and predicated on BFR, it ought to be moved to the SpaceX BFR section?

Offline John Alan

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #13 on: 05/12/2018 11:39 pm »
SpaceX is likely taking the obvious (to me) line of reasoning that...

If BFS/BFR does not work out and does not replace F9/FH and is making money for them here near earth...
Then really spending very much time and dollars on this topic you all seek answers to... is silly at this point...

Yes... SpaceX will likely send two BFS's to Mars and land both to prove they got this figured out...
BUT... (again my opinion)...
Those two will sit on Mars with the sole purpose to prod others to figure out and fund what will fly on the next synod.

Live pics coming back from Mars daily of two BFS's parked on Mars will get NASA and other groups and governments to now get very serious and fund this dreamy venture to put Boots and Buildings on Mars...

SpaceX is likely not doing any serious engineering yet on what this topic is asking...  ;)
« Last Edit: 05/12/2018 11:39 pm by John Alan »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #14 on: 05/13/2018 12:04 am »
I want to make one point clear first of all:
"Grand plans" are useless. If you expect detailed public plans from SpaceX, you'll never get them as they aren't worth the ink they're written in. Grand plans are WAY over-rated.

BFR is all "build it and they will come" right now.

NASA doesn't take BFR terribly seriously, yet. The only way to prove SpaceX is serious is for BFR (or at least BFS, which is the most important part for Mars) to fly. When that happens, watch partnerships line up. Same for "regulatory approval." But don't expect much of anything before that. Everyone else barely thinks Mars surface 2040 is doable, let alone 2025 and let alone at such scale.

Space suits shown in renderings look very similar to the Dragon Crew ones. And it doesn't make sense for SpaceX to announce detailed plans for Mars suits (which would mean devoting workforce) while they're still doing Dragon Crew suits and learning about suit design. SpaceX should and is devoting workforce to finishing up these things for commercial crew.

SpaceX is a large company, but they simply cannot devote enough money to keep people employed working on counting bolts on designs that probably will change drastically. They can't fund every possible permutation like NASA can. SpaceX IS and HAS BEEN working a lot of this stuff internally. You see hint of it in L2 and elsewhere. They've been looking at rovers, various solar power projects, nuclear power projects, etc. But it's still very in flux until BFR is ready.

The first cargo missions will likely be pushed back. But even if they aren't, I would not be surprised if the first cargo mission is fairly rushed and thus treated mostly as a tech demo. It would prove propellant production, but not necessarily at the full scale. This is in line with SpaceX's statements as of the 2016/2017 IAC. It won't necessarily be a full, fueled-up BFS on the surface.

SpaceX is funding constrained, and so they really hope to try to attract partners to develop as much of the ancillary stuff as they can. SpaceX is focusing mostly on EXACTLY what they should: BFR, starting with BFS.

BFS is the lander. It is also almost all the other elements in the mission. It is the primary thing that enables mass human travel to Mars at scale and at low cost. Established players (for the most part) have NOTHING like it in their plans. NASA has plans for Mars suits, Mars rovers (even having done desert test campaigns), etc, etc, etc. It doesn't make sense for SpaceX to duplicate that when they barely have the funding for BFS.

If SpaceX can prove BFS, all the rest can be negotiated. Maybe NASA will help with power and rovers and space suits?

That said, SpaceX is looking for "terrestrial" solar array tech, now, which I take to mean ground mounted arrays (i.e. on mars for ISRU). This job listing, for instance:
https://twitter.com/RocketJoy/status/989261693233479680
Quote
I'm looking for an experienced manufacturing engineer for my team! Ideal candidate is hands-on problem solver with experience ramping up a high volume production line for terrestrial solar arrays. Send me a message if you or someone you know is interested.
Quote
SpaceX was founded under the belief that a future where humanity is out exploring the stars is fundamentally more exciting than one where we are not. Today SpaceX is actively developing the technologies to make this possible, with the ultimate goal of enabling human life on Mars.

SOLAR ARRAY MANUFACTURING ENGINEER

RESPONSIBILITIES:

Develop and document processes used in the assembly of low-cost solar panels for space applications
Work intimately with solder and weld processes for conductor interconnection
Evaluate candidate processes using tools like PFMEA and Six Sigma
Conduct root cause investigations in the case of process issues
Characterize photovoltaic devices (LIV, DIV, EL, IR) and interpret results
Support the training of manufacturing technicians
BASIC QUALIFICATIONS:

Bachelor's degree in an engineering or scientific discipline from an ABET accredited university
5+ years experience in high volume, low-cost manufacturing processes
5+ years experience with polymeric materials and related processes
PREFERRED SKILLS AND EXPERIENCE:

Familiarity with spacecraft solar arrays and the space environment
Familiarity with terrestrial solar arrays
Enthusiasm for hands-on prototyping
Strong written and verbal communication skills


And comments by the person (Joy Dunn) running the project at SpaceX on Twitter:
Quote
Johan Karlsson:^BFS?

Thiago V Goncalves: Starlink maybe?

Mariano Ochoa: Mars base.

Joy Dunn: All of these things (and Dragon) need solar power. And all of these things need manufacturing engineers to build them :)

Obviously, SpaceX needs solar for a bunch of things, but one of the things they're already looking for is "terrestrial" array experience. I think a lot of this is to help focus on low cost, but doubtless some of it is very Mars-forward.


SpaceX can't yet afford a huge team devoted to everything. Thus everything (including surface solar power) has to be as dual-purpose as possible. Which is why they're focusing on things like BFR which can pay for themselves.

If BFR works, everything else can and will follow. Without BFR, it won't. So they're focusing on BFR.
« Last Edit: 05/13/2018 12:06 am by Robotbeat »
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To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Jim_LAX

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #15 on: 05/13/2018 12:05 am »
Seeing Elon's Red Roadster with planet earth in the background stired hearts and minds around the globe.  Seeing "Live pics coming back from Mars daily.." would stir even the most unimaginative government officials into action!
"I don't go along with going to the Moon first in order to build a launch pad to go to Mars.  We should go to Mars from Earth orbit."

Offline testguy

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #16 on: 05/13/2018 12:08 am »
Can I make a friendly suggestion that because this thread is about Mars and predicated on BFR, it ought to be moved to the SpaceX BFR section?

I looked at the section descriptions and was unsure where to place it.  Finally decided to put it in the SpaceX General section because the section title seamed like the best place even though the section description didn’t fit.  Never the less, if the moderator chooses to move it it is fine with me. I wouldn’t even know how to move it.

Offline meekGee

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #17 on: 05/13/2018 01:28 am »
I want to make one point clear first of all:
"Grand plans" are useless. If you expect detailed public plans from SpaceX, you'll never get them as they aren't worth the ink they're written in. Grand plans are WAY over-rated.

BFR is all "build it and they will come" right now.

NASA doesn't take BFR terribly seriously, yet. The only way to prove SpaceX is serious is for BFR (or at least BFS, which is the most important part for Mars) to fly. When that happens, watch partnerships line up. Same for "regulatory approval." But don't expect much of anything before that. Everyone else barely thinks Mars surface 2040 is doable, let alone 2025 and let alone at such scale.

Space suits shown in renderings look very similar to the Dragon Crew ones. And it doesn't make sense for SpaceX to announce detailed plans for Mars suits (which would mean devoting workforce) while they're still doing Dragon Crew suits and learning about suit design. SpaceX should and is devoting workforce to finishing up these things for commercial crew.

SpaceX is a large company, but they simply cannot devote enough money to keep people employed working on counting bolts on designs that probably will change drastically. They can't fund every possible permutation like NASA can. SpaceX IS and HAS BEEN working a lot of this stuff internally. You see hint of it in L2 and elsewhere. They've been looking at rovers, various solar power projects, nuclear power projects, etc. But it's still very in flux until BFR is ready.

The first cargo missions will likely be pushed back. But even if they aren't, I would not be surprised if the first cargo mission is fairly rushed and thus treated mostly as a tech demo. It would prove propellant production, but not necessarily at the full scale. This is in line with SpaceX's statements as of the 2016/2017 IAC. It won't necessarily be a full, fueled-up BFS on the surface.

SpaceX is funding constrained, and so they really hope to try to attract partners to develop as much of the ancillary stuff as they can. SpaceX is focusing mostly on EXACTLY what they should: BFR, starting with BFS.

BFS is the lander. It is also almost all the other elements in the mission. It is the primary thing that enables mass human travel to Mars at scale and at low cost. Established players (for the most part) have NOTHING like it in their plans. NASA has plans for Mars suits, Mars rovers (even having done desert test campaigns), etc, etc, etc. It doesn't make sense for SpaceX to duplicate that when they barely have the funding for BFS.

If SpaceX can prove BFS, all the rest can be negotiated. Maybe NASA will help with power and rovers and space suits?

That said, SpaceX is looking for "terrestrial" solar array tech, now, which I take to mean ground mounted arrays (i.e. on mars for ISRU). This job listing, for instance:
https://twitter.com/RocketJoy/status/989261693233479680
Quote
I'm looking for an experienced manufacturing engineer for my team! Ideal candidate is hands-on problem solver with experience ramping up a high volume production line for terrestrial solar arrays. Send me a message if you or someone you know is interested.
Quote
SpaceX was founded under the belief that a future where humanity is out exploring the stars is fundamentally more exciting than one where we are not. Today SpaceX is actively developing the technologies to make this possible, with the ultimate goal of enabling human life on Mars.

SOLAR ARRAY MANUFACTURING ENGINEER

RESPONSIBILITIES:

Develop and document processes used in the assembly of low-cost solar panels for space applications
Work intimately with solder and weld processes for conductor interconnection
Evaluate candidate processes using tools like PFMEA and Six Sigma
Conduct root cause investigations in the case of process issues
Characterize photovoltaic devices (LIV, DIV, EL, IR) and interpret results
Support the training of manufacturing technicians
BASIC QUALIFICATIONS:

Bachelor's degree in an engineering or scientific discipline from an ABET accredited university
5+ years experience in high volume, low-cost manufacturing processes
5+ years experience with polymeric materials and related processes
PREFERRED SKILLS AND EXPERIENCE:

Familiarity with spacecraft solar arrays and the space environment
Familiarity with terrestrial solar arrays
Enthusiasm for hands-on prototyping
Strong written and verbal communication skills


And comments by the person (Joy Dunn) running the project at SpaceX on Twitter:
Quote
Johan Karlsson:^BFS?

Thiago V Goncalves: Starlink maybe?

Mariano Ochoa: Mars base.

Joy Dunn: All of these things (and Dragon) need solar power. And all of these things need manufacturing engineers to build them :)

Obviously, SpaceX needs solar for a bunch of things, but one of the things they're already looking for is "terrestrial" array experience. I think a lot of this is to help focus on low cost, but doubtless some of it is very Mars-forward.


SpaceX can't yet afford a huge team devoted to everything. Thus everything (including surface solar power) has to be as dual-purpose as possible. Which is why they're focusing on things like BFR which can pay for themselves.

If BFR works, everything else can and will follow. Without BFR, it won't. So they're focusing on BFR.

Nah.  You're just presenting an extreme strawman.

Plans exist, even if they are tentative.  SpaceX has a good idea as to how much power they'll need and how they'll generate it.  The job postings are a good hint.

But they chose so far not to lay out these plans. The OP was asking about the "Rest of the story".  To various degrees of detail, SpaceX has put thought into this, and the rest of the story will absolutely come out in time.

"Build it and they will come" is analogous to "SpaceX only makes rockets" of several year ago.  While Musk will want to partner, I think there's a good chance that many if not all of the first set of ground technologies (power, ISRU, habitation, ground transport) will be created by SpaceX.

For example, suppose the first flight is in 2022/2024.  It will likely have rovers.  Who's making these rovers?  How long does it take to develop a Mars rover?
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #18 on: 05/13/2018 01:37 am »
I suspect SpaceX simply doesn't have the time or money right now to build rovers when the rocket hasn't been built yet.

There are two things that are well-proven on Mars:

1) rovers
and
2) solar power

Scale is different, speed is different. But there's a real engineering experience base with now literally decades of elapsed mission time. We know what materials work, and what don't. We know that putting a solar array on top of a hill means it'll get cleaned regularly. We know not to use super thin aluminum wheels. We even know (from Phoenix) about digging in icy soil.

So honestly, if you're going to pick something to wait until the last minute on, it might be those two.
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To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline spacenut

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #19 on: 05/13/2018 02:07 am »
Well, SpaceX can probably get a Tesla rover built that can be used on Mars.  Then solar panels can be built by Solarcity another of Musk's companies.  Bigelow can probably make habitats based on their inflatables that can be brought on a BFS.  I'm sure that if SpaceX builds a BFS Mars transporter, a BFS tanker, and a stripped down BFS for an expendable second stage to deliver 250 tons to LEO vs, 150 tons, congress, NASA, the American people, space interested private companies, and foreign governments will all want a ride to Mars, and will begin to offer things needed. 

"Build it and they will come" might just work for SpaceX with a 150 ton completely reusable launcher.  Only New Glenn could compete and it will be smaller until New Armstrong is built. 

SpaceX, I don't believe, can do all of Mars alone.  There needs to be more robotic prospecting for water sources, a satellite communication system, a Mars GPS system, and probably more that I haven't though of, before humans land, I think. 

Offline butters

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #20 on: 05/13/2018 05:10 am »
I think SpaceX needs to do an uncrewed BFS round trip on their own initiative and avoid any NASA involvement until that milestone is achieved. This requires a propellant plant, which in turn generates requirements for power and possibly water. This won't be cheap or easy, but SpaceX needs to do this to prove the system for human missions and to establish a strong negotiating position with Congress and NASA on proceeding with the first human expedition to Mars.

They cannot self-fund a human mission, but the uncrewed round trip to Mars with a human-scale spaceship (and then some) is the next most ambitious target, and it's right on the edge of what SpaceX might be able to achieve on their own. There's a line that Space simply cannot cross without government largesse, let's be honest, but they should try to get right up against that line if they want the SpaceX vision of Mars colonization to carry weight when it comes to involving NASA and other partners.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #21 on: 05/13/2018 06:35 am »
If they can self-fund all that, then they can self-fund a human mission.
« Last Edit: 05/13/2018 06:27 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline M.E.T.

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #22 on: 05/13/2018 08:19 am »
I note Elon’s recent estimate that Falcon 9 will launch maybe 300 more missions in its lifetime, before being replaced by BFR. I also note his statement that a reused F9 launch sells for around $50m, giving us a ballpark total revenue of maybe $15 billion from the remainder of F9’s planned useful life.

This $15 billion total is what will have to fund BFR development, construction and the mission costs up to the landing of the first pair of BFS ships on Mars.

Revenue from Starlink can likely be ignored in the interim, given that Starlink itself will require around $10 billion of investment to become operational.  So net contributions from Starlink is likely a longer term goal, after initial investment has been recouped.

Furthermore, much of the $15 billion F9 revenue will go into sustaining existing SpaceX costs, with profits being the more relevant number that can go into supporting Mars plans. So reinvested profits plus normal R&D budget gives you maybe $5-7 billion out of the $15 billion that can support the Mars plans until 2022.

That is barely enough to design and build BFR.

My point with the above being that SpaceX don’t have the funds to finance rovers, power generation, ISRU, and all the other developments needed for Mars colonization. They no doubt have conceptual plans for what is required, but they clearly mean it when they say others will have to come to the party to realize these plans.

Building the rocket and successfully landing it on Mars is the big leap forward that is meant to inspire others to jump on the bandwagon.

Offline Nomadd

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #23 on: 05/13/2018 09:24 am »
I note Elon’s recent estimate that Falcon 9 will launch maybe 300 more missions in its lifetime, before being replaced by BFR. I also note his statement that a reused F9 launch sells for around $50m, giving us a ballpark total revenue of maybe $15 billion from the remainder of F9’s planned useful life.

This $15 billion total is what will have to fund BFR development, construction and the mission costs up to the landing of the first pair of BFS ships on Mars.

Revenue from Starlink can likely be ignored in the interim, given that Starlink itself will require around $10 billion of investment to become operational.  So net contributions from Starlink is likely a longer term goal, after initial investment has been recouped.

Furthermore, much of the $15 billion F9 revenue will go into sustaining existing SpaceX costs, with profits being the more relevant number that can go into supporting Mars plans. So reinvested profits plus normal R&D budget gives you maybe $5-7 billion out of the $15 billion that can support the Mars plans until 2022.

That is barely enough to design and build BFR.

My point with the above being that SpaceX don’t have the funds to finance rovers, power generation, ISRU, and all the other developments needed for Mars colonization. They no doubt have conceptual plans for what is required, but they clearly mean it when they say others will have to come to the party to realize these plans.

Building the rocket and successfully landing it on Mars is the big leap forward that is meant to inspire others to jump on the bandwagon.
It is possible that SpaceX has accounting practices that go beyond 2nd grade math and these things called investors to boot. Projects like Starlink are a little more complicated than paying off the cost before you can use the revenue somewhere else. Investors aren't loaning them money. They're buying into the business.
 People and corporations have been "Coming to the party" for ten years.
« Last Edit: 05/13/2018 09:27 am by Nomadd »
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Offline Oersted

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #24 on: 05/13/2018 09:45 am »
I just hope SpaceX finds the right balance regarding work force management. BFR/S and Mars is a marathon, not a sprint.

On the one hand they cannot overwork and burn out their trusted work force which by now has gained unprallelled experience with the Falcons.

On the other hand it won't be economically feasible for SpaceX if the project turns into a rudderless slow-moving money pit. Governments can sustain that, not private companies.

I think Human Resources will be the key for this endeavour. SpaceX will have to ensure sustainable work force management. They can't just wing it.


Offline M.E.T.

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #25 on: 05/13/2018 10:07 am »
I note Elon’s recent estimate that Falcon 9 will launch maybe 300 more missions in its lifetime, before being replaced by BFR. I also note his statement that a reused F9 launch sells for around $50m, giving us a ballpark total revenue of maybe $15 billion from the remainder of F9’s planned useful life.

This $15 billion total is what will have to fund BFR development, construction and the mission costs up to the landing of the first pair of BFS ships on Mars.

Revenue from Starlink can likely be ignored in the interim, given that Starlink itself will require around $10 billion of investment to become operational.  So net contributions from Starlink is likely a longer term goal, after initial investment has been recouped.

Furthermore, much of the $15 billion F9 revenue will go into sustaining existing SpaceX costs, with profits being the more relevant number that can go into supporting Mars plans. So reinvested profits plus normal R&D budget gives you maybe $5-7 billion out of the $15 billion that can support the Mars plans until 2022.

That is barely enough to design and build BFR.

My point with the above being that SpaceX don’t have the funds to finance rovers, power generation, ISRU, and all the other developments needed for Mars colonization. They no doubt have conceptual plans for what is required, but they clearly mean it when they say others will have to come to the party to realize these plans.

Building the rocket and successfully landing it on Mars is the big leap forward that is meant to inspire others to jump on the bandwagon.
It is possible that SpaceX has accounting practices that go beyond 2nd grade math and these things called investors to boot. Projects like Starlink are a little more complicated than paying off the cost before you can use the revenue somewhere else. Investors aren't loaning them money. They're buying into the business.

 People and corporations have been "Coming to the party" for ten years.

Surprisingly harsh response to a post that was making a broad point rather than delving into the details of SpaceX accounting practices. Be that as it may. Elon is on record as saying that the money diverted from F9 production once Block V is locked in will be what funds the development of BFR.  Starlink rollout is planned over the next four years or so, during which a lot of capital investment will be required. And investors in Starlink will do so in the expectation of long term returns, not because they want to make charitable contributions to Elon's Mars colonization plans.

SpaceX will of course earn a major share of those profits, as they will likely remain a majority owner of the Starlink project, but I don't think it is unreasonable to think that Starlink payback is only likely to start rolling in after the 2022 intended Mars mission.

Somehow I expect that Elon will not want to repeat the Tesla debt and negative cash flow conundrums with SpaceX, which up to now has been an example of a very solid, cash flow positive business by contrast. As Elon said, between the original ITS presentation in 2016 and the updated BFR reveal in 2017 they realized they have to marry the need to get to Mars in his lifetime with the need for SpaceX to not go bankrupt.

So all things considered, I think SpaceX is going to be stretched as it is to get a functional BFR safely on Mars by 2022/2024. Splashing cash on all of the other technology needed to build a colony on Mars is going to need outside partners who are willing to invest in the project, and probably for reasons other than pure financial returns.

That's my opinion, at least. Based on 2nd grade math or not.
« Last Edit: 05/13/2018 10:08 am by M.E.T. »

Offline speedevil

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #26 on: 05/13/2018 10:09 am »
If NASA, or more importantly, NASA-like practices get involved, you've already lost.
If you can get stuff to Mars for $150/kg, and your rover looks anything like curiosity cost-wise, you've lost.
(or at least wasted wholly the opportunity)

Curiosity cost a couple of billion dollars.
For a couple of billion dollars, you can send 500 lightly modified tesla model 3s, as well as a crew to teleoperate them from orbit.

(assuming throwaway BFS, if ISRU was working, it's 5000)

Curiosity teaches us almost precisely nothing about what is desired for a rover that costs under $100K.
It is not repairable, the wheels are fragile little beautiful flowers that shatter on impact, ...
In many ways, if the choice is to send such a Rover, over sending 150 tons of water, I'd rather send the water.

Offline Slarty1080

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #27 on: 05/13/2018 11:46 am »
I can see that many in the aerospace industry won’t take SpaceX seriously about the BFR until it's flying. The real question is how much flying is required before the BFR becomes a game changer? And by that I mean offers of partnership and large quantities of cash? I suspect that 2-3 might generate some tentative discussions whilst 4 would be the breakthrough point.

1.   BFS low altitude hops up to 10km
2.   BFS high altitude hops suborbital
3.   BFB test flight with recovery. BFS carried and recovered
4.   BFR orbital mission and return to earth unmanned
5.   BFR orbital mission with satellite deployment
6.   BFR manned orbital mission
7.   BFR refuel in orbit
8.   BFR manned operation BEO
9.   BFR unmanned Mars mission
10.   BFR manned Mars mission
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Offline hplan

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #28 on: 05/13/2018 11:52 am »
In many ways, if the choice is to send such a Rover, over sending 150 tons of water, I'd rather send the water.

Is 150 tonnes of methane enough to return a BFS from Mars? Could SpaceX send a BFS filled with methane as cargo and get O2 from the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, by some process, to make it possible for a BFS to return from Mars without first mining water?



Offline Dalhousie

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #29 on: 05/13/2018 11:55 am »
In many ways, if the choice is to send such a Rover, over sending 150 tons of water, I'd rather send the water.

Is 150 tonnes of methane enough to return a BFS from Mars? Could SpaceX send a BFS filled with methane as cargo and get O2 from the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, by some process, to make it possible for a BFS to return from Mars without first mining water?

you can bring hydrogen from Earth and react it with martian CO2 to form methane and water in a sabatier reactor.  Then electrolyse the water to form oxygen and hydrogen and further react the hydrogen to form more methane and water. 
Apologies in advance for any lack of civility - it's unintended

Online niwax

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #30 on: 05/13/2018 12:06 pm »
In many ways, if the choice is to send such a Rover, over sending 150 tons of water, I'd rather send the water.

Is 150 tonnes of methane enough to return a BFS from Mars? Could SpaceX send a BFS filled with methane as cargo and get O2 from the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, by some process, to make it possible for a BFS to return from Mars without first mining water?

If you go that route, having it send a dedicated return vehicle is much more efficient. BFS has a pretty high dry mass because it's supposed to take some hundred people per journey. If all you want is to guarantee return of the first five settlers, send a conventional return stage which fits comfortably in a few hundred tons.
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Offline su27k

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #31 on: 05/13/2018 12:12 pm »
My point with the above being that SpaceX don’t have the funds to finance rovers, power generation, ISRU, and all the other developments needed for Mars colonization. They no doubt have conceptual plans for what is required, but they clearly mean it when they say others will have to come to the party to realize these plans.

Note OP is asking about first manned mission to Mars, not colonization. There's a huge difference between funding a Mars city for colonists and a small base for 6~12 astronauts.

Also this has been repeated many times: ISRU is part of the architecture, that's why originally it's called Interplanetary Transport System, they wouldn't leave ISRU to others, they're working on it.

As for rovers, if someone can contribute that's great, if not I think it's relatively easy to DIY. Someone brought up Lunar Roving Vehicle as an example, that thing only costs ~$200M of today's dollars to develop, I'm sure SpaceX can do better with today's electric car chassis.

This just leaves the surface suit and habitat, but they won't need these until they sent people, so there's still some time.

Offline wes_wilson

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #32 on: 05/13/2018 12:13 pm »
I suspect SpaceX simply doesn't have the time or money right now to build rovers when the rocket hasn't been built yet.

There are two things that are well-proven on Mars:

1) rovers
and
2) solar power

Scale is different, speed is different. But there's a real engineering experience base with now literally decades of elapsed mission time. We know what materials work, and what don't. We know that putting a solar array on top of a hill means it'll get cleaned regularly. We know not to use super thin aluminum wheels. We even know (from Phoenix) about digging in icy soil.

So honestly, if you're going to pick something to wait until the last minute on, it might be those two.

Yeah, I agree.  Besides, there's a soon to be off-the-shelf electric vehicle in the pipeline.
https://electrek.co/2017/11/17/tesla-pickup-truck-first-image-unveil/

There's also the falcon heavy tesla roadster....  While a cool publicity stunt, they also no doubt collected data about outgassing, battery life, and other performance info giving them a little bit of data about how their vehicles hold up in conditions harsher than mars.   I've also always suspected that media grabbing Tesla features like "bio-weapon defense mode" have a longer term dual purpose use.

So my future bet is they don't engineer a Mars buggy at all.  I think they've been doing it for years into everything they build at Tesla and when it's time to go they'll be using COTS tesla trucks, perhaps with custom tires.

Edit: Tying back to OP.  I think the rest of the story for rovers is playing out in public view at Tesla as they move into trucks both semi and personal.  Those are your first Mars movers.



« Last Edit: 05/13/2018 12:14 pm by wes_wilson »
@SpaceX "When can I buy my ticket to Mars?"

Offline robert_d

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #33 on: 05/13/2018 12:14 pm »

Specifically I would like to have a discussion on things other than BFR.  What is needed, by when, and when should we hope to have details?
 

THIS is what someone should hire Zubrin to work on. Keep him busy and out of trouble. Let him make a contribution that might actually affect reality. ALL the Mars folks should start winnowing down the myriad of ideas out there and get to a consensus subset that could actually begin fabrication soon. If they don't start designing and building stuff soon, even 2024 might come and go with a BFR available without a payload.

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #34 on: 05/13/2018 12:27 pm »
My point with the above being that SpaceX don’t have the funds to finance rovers, power generation, ISRU, and all the other developments needed for Mars colonization. They no doubt have conceptual plans for what is required, but they clearly mean it when they say others will have to come to the party to realize these plans.

Note OP is asking about first manned mission to Mars, not colonization. There's a huge difference between funding a Mars city for colonists and a small base for 6~12 astronauts.

Also this has been repeated many times: ISRU is part of the architecture, that's why originally it's called Interplanetary Transport System, they wouldn't leave ISRU to others, they're working on it.

As for rovers, if someone can contribute that's great, if not I think it's relatively easy to DIY. Someone brought up Lunar Roving Vehicle as an example, that thing only costs ~$200M of today's dollars to develop, I'm sure SpaceX can do better with today's electric car chassis.

This just leaves the surface suit and habitat, but they won't need these until they sent people, so there's still some time.

With reference to the bolded above, that's a fair distinction. I guess my point of departure is that I don't yet see how the "money diverted from F9 construction" adds up to the $10 billion needed to design and build the BFR and BFS over the next 4 years. Total SpaceX revenue barely gets to $10 billion in that period, nevermind the much smaller portion of that revenue that can be focused exclusively on building the BFR.

So, while that challenge remains, I personally struggle to see how there is money left over for other endeavours, critical as they may be for the architecture. Sure, over the next 10-15 years I can see those funds becoming available, once Starlink starts paying off.

But before that (over the next 4 years in other words), some kind of capital raising or personal investment by Musk would seem to be required to raise the stated $10 billion required for the project. But then, I could be missing something big in the above picture.

Offline speedevil

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #35 on: 05/13/2018 12:34 pm »
If they don't start designing and building stuff soon, even 2024 might come and go with a BFR available without a payload.
2022 is some time away.
Recently, it was stated the ambition is to get F9 down to $6M/launch incremental costs.
Even without BFS, 30 tons to Mars injection or so, with refilling of S2 in orbit would be plausible at under $100M/mission, for SpaceX, perhaps entirely without BFS.

Offline robert_d

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #36 on: 05/13/2018 12:40 pm »
Can I make a friendly suggestion that because this thread is about Mars and predicated on BFR, it ought to be moved to the SpaceX BFR section?

I actually think the opposite. In my opinion it should be in the Human Spaceflight - Mars section. That way (hopefully) the discussion will not revert back to a BFR/SpaceX only discussion. SPaceX will not be able to fund all of this. As a collaboration (possibly multinational) a division of labor will need to be established. Not wanting to turn this into a political thread, but a certain "modularity" of the equipment should be kept in mind.

Offline speedevil

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #37 on: 05/13/2018 12:42 pm »
So, while that challenge remains, I personally struggle to see how there is money left over for other endeavours, critical as they may be for the architecture. Sure, over the next 10-15 years I can see those funds becoming available, once Starlink starts paying off.

But before that (over the next 4 years in other words), some kind of capital raising or personal investment by Musk would seem to be required to raise the stated $10 billion required for the project. But then, I could be missing something big in the above picture.

Starlink is required to be launched in 6 years time from April this year, so April 2024 or so.
However, once you have the first plane launched or so - 50 - you can demonstrate the full capability of the constellation at nominal speeds and performances, to sell to investors.
This is plausible this year even, maybe next, even if consumer service is a year or two out.

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #38 on: 05/13/2018 12:55 pm »
So, while that challenge remains, I personally struggle to see how there is money left over for other endeavours, critical as they may be for the architecture. Sure, over the next 10-15 years I can see those funds becoming available, once Starlink starts paying off.

But before that (over the next 4 years in other words), some kind of capital raising or personal investment by Musk would seem to be required to raise the stated $10 billion required for the project. But then, I could be missing something big in the above picture.

Starlink is required to be launched in 6 years time from April this year, so April 2024 or so.
However, once you have the first plane launched or so - 50 - you can demonstrate the full capability of the constellation at nominal speeds and performances, to sell to investors.
This is plausible this year even, maybe next, even if consumer service is a year or two out.

Yes, but any shares sold at that point are invariably sold at a massive discount compared to what it would be worth once the company is fully operational and earning huge annual revenues.

So essentially you would be selling for a few billion what could be worth tens or even hundreds of billions a few years later. Money sacrificed for no reason other than to move your Mars landing date forward by 5-10 years. Money that is lost to the colonization project in future years, and instead flowing out as returns into the pockets of those early investors.

Offline speedevil

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #39 on: 05/13/2018 12:58 pm »
So, while that challenge remains, I personally struggle to see how there is money left over for other endeavours, critical as they may be for the architecture. Sure, over the next 10-15 years I can see those funds becoming available, once Starlink starts paying off.

But before that (over the next 4 years in other words), some kind of capital raising or personal investment by Musk would seem to be required to raise the stated $10 billion required for the project. But then, I could be missing something big in the above picture.

Starlink is required to be launched in 6 years time from April this year, so April 2024 or so.
However, once you have the first plane launched or so - 50 - you can demonstrate the full capability of the constellation at nominal speeds and performances, to sell to investors.
This is plausible this year even, maybe next, even if consumer service is a year or two out.

Yes, but any shares sold at that point are invariably sold at a massive discount compared to what it would be worth once the company is fully operational and earning huge annual revenues.
You might not be selling shares, but bonds, having demonstrated the full capacity of the system to investors, so the risk goes down considerably.
Obligation to repay $XB at 30% interest, over 5 years for example.

Offline lonestriker

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #40 on: 05/13/2018 02:01 pm »
If NASA, or more importantly, NASA-like practices get involved, you've already lost.
If you can get stuff to Mars for $150/kg, and your rover looks anything like curiosity cost-wise, you've lost.
(or at least wasted wholly the opportunity)

Curiosity cost a couple of billion dollars.
For a couple of billion dollars, you can send 500 lightly modified tesla model 3s, as well as a crew to teleoperate them from orbit.

(assuming throwaway BFS, if ISRU was working, it's 5000)

Curiosity teaches us almost precisely nothing about what is desired for a rover that costs under $100K.
It is not repairable, the wheels are fragile little beautiful flowers that shatter on impact, ...
In many ways, if the choice is to send such a Rover, over sending 150 tons of water, I'd rather send the water.

Agreed.

What most people are mistaking is that it's not really valid to compare the Lunar Rover or the previous Mars rovers with anything that SpaceX will put on Mars.  The previous vehicles were both mass-limited and volume-limited, so they had to be super light and fold up like complex mechanical origami puzzles to make the transit and and survive landing.

If BFR performs as expected, it removes a massive amount of complexity and cost to designing things like rovers and solar panels for Mars.  You still want to optimize both mass and volume, but the problem is an order of magnitude simpler when your mass budget is massively increased.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #41 on: 05/13/2018 02:21 pm »
I note Elon’s recent estimate that Falcon 9 will launch maybe 300 more missions in its lifetime, before being replaced by BFR. I also note his statement that a reused F9 launch sells for around $50m, giving us a ballpark total revenue of maybe $15 billion from the remainder of F9’s planned useful life.

This $15 billion total is what will have to fund BFR development, construction and the mission costs up to the landing of the first pair of BFS ships on Mars.

Revenue from Starlink can likely be ignored in the interim, given that Starlink itself will require around $10 billion of investment to become operational.  So net contributions from Starlink is likely a longer term goal, after initial investment has been recouped.

Furthermore, much of the $15 billion F9 revenue will go into sustaining existing SpaceX costs, with profits being the more relevant number that can go into supporting Mars plans. So reinvested profits plus normal R&D budget gives you maybe $5-7 billion out of the $15 billion that can support the Mars plans until 2022.

That is barely enough to design and build BFR.

My point with the above being that SpaceX don’t have the funds to finance rovers, power generation, ISRU, and all the other developments needed for Mars colonization. They no doubt have conceptual plans for what is required, but they clearly mean it when they say others will have to come to the party to realize these plans.

Building the rocket and successfully landing it on Mars is the big leap forward that is meant to inspire others to jump on the bandwagon.
Youre double counting. Starlink costs would include launch costs, first on falcon and then on BFR. In the latter case, that would assist BFR development.
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Offline AncientU

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #42 on: 05/13/2018 03:20 pm »
If NASA, or more importantly, NASA-like practices get involved, you've already lost.
If you can get stuff to Mars for $150/kg, and your rover looks anything like curiosity cost-wise, you've lost.
(or at least wasted wholly the opportunity)

Curiosity cost a couple of billion dollars.
For a couple of billion dollars, you can send 500 lightly modified tesla model 3s, as well as a crew to teleoperate them from orbit.

(assuming throwaway BFS, if ISRU was working, it's 5000)

Curiosity teaches us almost precisely nothing about what is desired for a rover that costs under $100K.
It is not repairable, the wheels are fragile little beautiful flowers that shatter on impact, ...
In many ways, if the choice is to send such a Rover, over sending 150 tons of water, I'd rather send the water.

Agreed.

What most people are mistaking is that it's not really valid to compare the Lunar Rover or the previous Mars rovers with anything that SpaceX will put on Mars.  The previous vehicles were both mass-limited and volume-limited, so they had to be super light and fold up like complex mechanical origami puzzles to make the transit and and survive landing.

If BFR performs as expected, it removes a massive amount of complexity and cost to designing things like rovers and solar panels for Mars.  You still want to optimize both mass and volume, but the problem is an order of magnitude simpler when your mass budget is massively increased.

One other dimension is available -- you can send orders of magnitude more rovers or solar panels or whatever.  Spending a decade and sending one (at a couple billion dollars) isn't going to cut it.  Spend 2-4 years and send dozens... or hundreds.
« Last Edit: 05/13/2018 03:24 pm by AncientU »
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #43 on: 05/13/2018 03:30 pm »
If they don't start designing and building stuff soon, even 2024 might come and go with a BFR available without a payload.
2022 is some time away.
Recently, it was stated the ambition is to get F9 down to $6M/launch incremental costs.
Even without BFS, 30 tons to Mars injection or so, with refilling of S2 in orbit would be plausible at under $100M/mission, for SpaceX, perhaps entirely without BFS.
I doubt they’ll develop refueling and very long duration for Falcon upper. And besides, the new recovery method proposed for the Falcon upper stage wouldn’t work on Mars (unlike for BFS) as it isn’t propulsive. And so with the cancellation (or indefinite postponement) of propulsive Dragon landing, there’s no way to get payloads to the surface (without super expensive NASA like methods by other contractors). So the only point would be for orbital assets. But don’t need upper stage refueling for that. Falcon Heavy is more than capable of sending satellites (such as the small Starlink-based satellites) to Mars. It probably can be fully reused, too, as there should be enough propellant in the upper stage to do a retro burn after TMI.

If BFS/R isn’t ready by 2022, I can see SpaceX sending Starlink derived satellites (which have plenty of propellant for Mars orbit insertion and perhaps even assisting TMI, which should make reuse much easier, perhaps even allowing a F9 to be used instead of FH) for data relay and perhaps navigation and reconn. NASA would happily assist (at least by providing an Electra relay radio) as NASA will need assurance of relay service since NASA doesn’t have any more orbiters planned for a while. 

SpaceX currently relies on GPS a LOT for landing. Using some Starlink satellites at Mars in a similar fashion could help significantly and may be worth the relatively small price.
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Offline Lar

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #44 on: 05/13/2018 03:30 pm »
I sort of suspect Tesla has a vehicle in their labs already, put together as a side project, with an investment of no more than a few hundred thousand or so. Doing rovers NASA style misses the point. What's needed is a general purpose chassis (like a skate) that can take lots of different equipment modules. It needs to be modular, repairable, reconfigurable, and transportable. But it doesn't need to fold up origami style and it doesn't need to sacrifice every single gram of weight.
« Last Edit: 05/14/2018 06:28 am by Lar »
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Offline testguy

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #45 on: 05/13/2018 03:56 pm »
This discussion is great.  However, as threads tend to wonder this thread seams to be absorbed with discussion about SpaceX's cash flow and their human resources to execute the Mars plan for cargo flights in 2022 and boots on the ground in 2024.  I added a poll to the beginning of the thread to gather your opinions in a numerical manner.

It was not my initial intent when starting this thread to address finance and in-house personnel availability.  I was thinking that we would just accept that BFR and BFS met their schedule milestones and were available.  With that I was thinking that we would address  "The Rest Of The Story" which appears to be missing.  What is missing, why and when is it needed.

That said, please continue with your input on finance and personnel because they too are part of the story.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #46 on: 05/13/2018 04:04 pm »
Cash flow for all those items is perfectly on topic. The only reason SpaceX can afford this stuff (particularly well before full Starlink is making a lot of money) is by finding dual uses. BFR has dual use. Rovers don’t. That’s why we have heard a lot more about BFR than rovers. If you start a thread asking why we haven’t heard more about “the rest of the story,” then be prepared for people to answer you.
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Offline meekGee

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #47 on: 05/13/2018 04:05 pm »
I suspect SpaceX simply doesn't have the time or money right now to build rovers when the rocket hasn't been built yet.

There are two things that are well-proven on Mars:

1) rovers
and
2) solar power

Scale is different, speed is different. But there's a real engineering experience base with now literally decades of elapsed mission time. We know what materials work, and what don't. We know that putting a solar array on top of a hill means it'll get cleaned regularly. We know not to use super thin aluminum wheels. We even know (from Phoenix) about digging in icy soil.

So honestly, if you're going to pick something to wait until the last minute on, it might be those two.
It's not whether they're building rovers right now.

It's whether they've done basic work towards "the rest of the story", and when will they share some of that, because 1at least the OP and myself are curious...

Solar is proven, but its de-facto performance is much much lower than what you'd get by cobbling together spec sheets.  Much can be done to improve it, no doubt.

I am curious to see what SpaceX, not fans, have figured.

If SoaceX is relying on Bigelow to build inflatables for them, I'd be surprised.

The rest of the players (Tesla, solat city) do not constitute "build it and they will come"

Further, any paid subcontractor is not really "coming".  Only a company interested in investing is really considered a partner in this.

-----
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« Last Edit: 05/13/2018 04:10 pm by meekGee »
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #48 on: 05/13/2018 04:11 pm »
Of course they’ve done the basic work. This is perfectly clear based on years of L2.

As far as solar being not as good as on Earth, well that’s just how it goes. It’s an irrelevant point as BFS is still capable of landing plenty of mass to make solar still feasible for using for propellant production. And SpaceX knows how to integrate cheap silicon cells for space use. They do this for every Dragon mission.

As far as habs, SpaceX has already said BFS will be the first surface hab. BFS is enormous (almost ISS volume) and they are sending several of them.
« Last Edit: 05/13/2018 04:19 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline philw1776

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #49 on: 05/13/2018 04:18 pm »
Poll: Does SpaceX have an EXECUTABLE plan (both financial and human resources) for the 2017 Mars

I have no idea what this poll is asking
FULL SEND!!!!

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #50 on: 05/13/2018 04:24 pm »
Doesn’t matter if they have a “plan.” As long as they have a strategy that can bring success.
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Offline kch

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #51 on: 05/13/2018 04:58 pm »
Poll: Does SpaceX have an EXECUTABLE plan (both financial and human resources) for the 2017 Mars

I have no idea what this poll is asking

One wonders what "the 2017 Mars" might be, and (if it's what it sounds like) how SpaceX might get then-and-there (unless Elon has a TARDIS handy) ... ;D

Offline speedevil

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #52 on: 05/13/2018 05:02 pm »
Rovers don’t.
Considering the flip-side - automated self-drive automobiles do.

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #53 on: 05/13/2018 05:03 pm »
The centrally important question is this: Given a product X here on Earth, what should be modified on it to allow Martian use?

Thermal is the No 1 issue. Then, lubrication, I guess. Dust, esp. with electric contacts.

So, is it possible to develop the universal rover chassis form an existing Tesla product? With robotized recharging. Cranes? Earth movers?

The surface Powerpack comes obviously from Tesla Powerpack via redesigning the thermal control.

Offline speedevil

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #54 on: 05/13/2018 05:06 pm »
The centrally important question is this: Given a product X here on Earth, what should be modified on it to allow Martian use?

Thermal is the No 1 issue. Then, lubrication, I guess. Dust, esp. with electric contacts.

So, is it possible to develop the universal rover chassis form an existing Tesla product? With robotized recharging. Cranes? Earth movers?

The surface Powerpack comes obviously from Tesla Powerpack via redesigning the thermal control.
To a large extent, the question should also be asked if you should just operate it inside the pressurized environment.

This may be the case for for example the batteries.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #55 on: 05/13/2018 05:07 pm »
Rovers don’t.
Considering the flip-side - automated self-drive automobiles do.
There’s not a lot in common. If Tesla made autonomous mining equipment, you’d have a point. It’s a little like saying Tesla should build the octograbber just because the octograbber has wheels.

(Also, you cut out too much of the context of my quote so it doesn’t make any sense.)
« Last Edit: 05/13/2018 05:14 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline AncientU

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #56 on: 05/13/2018 05:16 pm »
I just hope SpaceX finds the right balance regarding work force management. BFR/S and Mars is a marathon, not a sprint.

On the one hand they cannot overwork and burn out their trusted work force which by now has gained unprallelled experience with the Falcons.

On the other hand it won't be economically feasible for SpaceX if the project turns into a rudderless slow-moving money pit. Governments can sustain that, not private companies.

I think Human Resources will be the key for this endeavour. SpaceX will have to ensure sustainable work force management. They can't just wing it.

1. I don't think Mars is a marathon -- certainly not a sprint -- it's more like an Iron Man triathalon because there are many legs of the challenge (transportation, setting up shop on the surface, living off the land).

2. It won't be feasible if rudderless, but also fails if too slow... so it needs to be an Ironman World Championship, where the athletes are basically super-human*.

3. Governments cannot sustain the slow-moving slog as evidenced by governments not sustaining it over past many decades.

4. Vision, competence, and balls are needed, not some soft, sustainable 'work environment' or workforce management. 

People with talent and drive will be available to sustain this challenge if someone can lead; the depth of human character is remarkable when an inspirational goal internalized.  (Watch an Ironman...)
So far, that inspiration has made all the difference.


* Thing is, they are not super-human.  They are human!  Our expectations and many times our daily lives are sub-human.
« Last Edit: 05/13/2018 05:23 pm by AncientU »
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Offline testguy

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #57 on: 05/13/2018 05:32 pm »
Cash flow for all those items is perfectly on topic. The only reason SpaceX can afford this stuff (particularly well before full Starlink is making a lot of money) is by finding dual uses. BFR has dual use. Rovers don’t. That’s why we have heard a lot more about BFR than rovers. If you start a thread asking why we haven’t heard more about “the rest of the story,” then be prepared for people to answer you.

Please reread the last line of my last post.  Am I missing something?

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #58 on: 05/13/2018 05:36 pm »
Cash flow for all those items is perfectly on topic. The only reason SpaceX can afford this stuff (particularly well before full Starlink is making a lot of money) is by finding dual uses. BFR has dual use. Rovers don’t. That’s why we have heard a lot more about BFR than rovers. If you start a thread asking why we haven’t heard more about “the rest of the story,” then be prepared for people to answer you.

Please reread the last line of my last post.  Am I missing something?
Ah! Nothing, we’re in agreement. :)
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Offline butters

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #59 on: 05/13/2018 05:45 pm »
Back when Red Dragon was still a thing, NASA was expressing interest in funding an ISRU demo payload for the second synod. If SpaceX is going to punt on leading development of any item critical to an uncrewed round trip and seek NASA involvement, ISRU would be the top candidate.  Batteries, solar modules, and wheeled vehicles seem well within the Musk constellation of technology resources.

If SpaceX is really going to hit the 2022 window for the initial cargo missions, then the development process for at least the solar modules needs to be underway by the end of 2019. But I think they'll slip to 2024. So I don't think we'll see any evidence of surface hardware in development for a couple years at least.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #60 on: 05/13/2018 05:47 pm »
SpaceX is already hiring someone who would likely be working (in part) on solar modules for Mars.
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Offline AncientU

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #61 on: 05/13/2018 05:51 pm »
Back when Red Dragon was still a thing, NASA was expressing interest in funding an ISRU demo payload for the second synod. If SpaceX is going to punt on leading development of any item critical to an uncrewed round trip and seek NASA involvement, ISRU would be the top candidate.  Batteries, solar modules, and wheeled vehicles seem well within the Musk constellation of technology resources.

If SpaceX is really going to hit the 2022 window for the initial cargo missions, then the development process for at least the solar modules needs to be underway by the end of 2019. But I think they'll slip to 2024. So I don't think we'll see any evidence of surface hardware in development for a couple years at least.

What evidence do you have that NASA could add anything to the SpaceX development effort.  They are looking at MOXIE, getting Oxygen from atmospheric carbon dioxide -- that is essentially useless for SpaceX plans.  IMO, NASA's 'participation' is more a hindrance than an asset.
« Last Edit: 05/13/2018 05:54 pm by AncientU »
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #62 on: 05/13/2018 05:53 pm »
Who says SpaceX and NASA aren’t currently discussing things related to Mars? I believe there are active space act agreements for this, in addition to countless informal discussions.
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Offline testguy

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #63 on: 05/13/2018 06:20 pm »
Poll: Does SpaceX have an EXECUTABLE plan (both financial and human resources) for the 2017 Mars

I have no idea what this poll is asking

For me at least what I was getting at is:
    SpaceX has stated they have an aspirational goal of landing two cargo BFS's on Mars in 2022 followed boots on the ground in 2024.  They no doubt have a plan to accomplish this.  The question is, is that plan executable?

 Meaning:
      1. Has SpaceX identified all the funding source(s) needed to accomplish those tasks per the schedule specified?
      2  Does SpaceX have a hiring plan that would supplement their existing personnel to accomplish the task(s) within Space?  Naturally they can't have 2 without 1 being affirmative.

     If they can accomplish the aspirational schedule they must have already developed a Program Plan consistent with identified funding.  Then they will work that program plan with the resources they have or will have available.

Side Point:  Please let's keep this a  friendly discussion.  The poll is just to obtain a consensus opinion of this forum.

Offline DistantTemple

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #64 on: 05/13/2018 06:45 pm »
Back when Red Dragon was still a thing, NASA was expressing interest in funding an ISRU demo payload for the second synod. If SpaceX is going to punt on leading development of any item critical to an uncrewed round trip and seek NASA involvement, ISRU would be the top candidate.  Batteries, solar modules, and wheeled vehicles seem well within the Musk constellation of technology resources.

If SpaceX is really going to hit the 2022 window for the initial cargo missions, then the development process for at least the solar modules needs to be underway by the end of 2019. But I think they'll slip to 2024. So I don't think we'll see any evidence of surface hardware in development for a couple years at least.
Even with L2, Spacex manages to keep its inner workings close. Only the development of the F9 has been really talked about. Similarly Tesla has given us some real surprises: The roadster 2 was totally unexpected at the semi launch! So EM blogs about some things, but keeps others completely out of sight.

I think EM is constantly juggling a big picture of how all his technologies work together, especially for Mars. I think we will get lots of surprises when some of these necessary core technologies appear nearly ready to roll! And some surprises will include NASA /JPL or similar involvement.

Also although he has repeatedly said that SX is just the railroad, and others need to get involved, I think as soon as he sees others' prices, he will want to do that thing "in house". Especially in the cases of life support, ISRU, rovers, associated mining, and habitats. I bet that all the core technologies for a SpaceX Mars base will be done in house. (He is also slightly paranoid about loosing control after his experience with Paypal!) SPacex will want to take ownership and management of technologies like ISRU from NASA(etc), and fully manage the donors' continued involvement, so that SX is in control of the time-line. NASA and other agencies will cooperate on non-core technologies, like nuclear, and general science exploration.

I think with rovers (and diggers/loaders etc,) he will try to use lightly modified earth based machines. CAT produce teleoporated mining machinery, and have done a project with NASA. However less traction due to lower gravity, and minimising transit mass will change the efficiency, as will prioritising energy efficiency.

A version of the Tesla Semi could have a large pressurised cabin, instead of the earth-cab! Assuming all controls except  steering are electronic, removing the cab and replacing it would not affect its basic functional design.

I agree with the Tesla skate sentiment; it being a good starting point for a utility rover. However an SX copy of an MSL style rover could be done for relative peanuts compared with JPL's version, particularly without the same mass constraints. And if production of dozens was assumed the development cost would be spread. Universities could buy/sponsor a rover.
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Offline AncientU

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #65 on: 05/13/2018 06:58 pm »
I think their existing workforce is sufficient for the design/build of BFR/BFS, plus adding on maybe 20-25% as specific skill sets for producing the Mars surface facilities are identified.  I doubt they'll need to double workforce or anything close.
 
Funding-wise, I think they have sufficient revenue from existing operations to do the early test vehicles and pad work which should stretch out to 2022 or so.  They'll need new buckets of dollars at that point as they ramp up production on BFS vehicles (Mars robotic ships, tankers, and finally crewed ships) which they'll get.  BFB demands should be 'trivial' in comparison.  The cash stream that comes from the constellation will ultimately close the loop, but there may be periods on borrowing or capital raises to span the gap.

So, I don't think they have an 'executable plan' for a 2022 pair of ships to Mars plus the follow-on four ships in 2024 -- mostly because of the development work needed -- but add 2-4 years and they are good to go.
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Offline geza

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #66 on: 05/13/2018 07:48 pm »
I think EM is constantly juggling a big picture of how all his technologies work together, especially for Mars.
...
I think with rovers (and diggers/loaders etc,) he will try to use lightly modified earth based machines. CAT produce teleoporated mining machinery, and have done a project with NASA.
...
A version of the Tesla Semi could have a large pressurised cabin, instead of the earth-cab! Assuming all controls except  steering are electronic, removing the cab and replacing it would not affect its basic functional design.
...
I agree with the Tesla skate sentiment; it being a good starting point for a utility rover.
Sure, this should be the path. Then, it is interesting to consider the diifculties. For instance:

(1) Nowadays we want to keep warn everithing on the Martian surface warm during night. Is it remains feasible for large structures, like a Tesla Semi, equipped with a crane and/or some digger? Or, keep warm e.g. the elecronic boxes and expect the large structures to handle the temperature extremes?  The latter one requires uniformity in thermal expansion.

(2) Tesla powertrain: is it possible to use it, as it is? Certinly, with temperature control. Possible with pressurization? Or, a completly new design for Mars...

Offline Bananas_on_Mars

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #67 on: 05/13/2018 08:07 pm »
I can see that many in the aerospace industry won’t take SpaceX seriously about the BFR until it's flying. The real question is how much flying is required before the BFR becomes a game changer? And by that I mean offers of partnership and large quantities of cash? I suspect that 2-3 might generate some tentative discussions whilst 4 would be the breakthrough point.

1.BFS low altitude hops up to 10km
2.BFS high altitude hops suborbital
3.BFB test flight with recovery. BFS carried and recovered
4.BFR orbital mission and return to earth unmanned
5.BFR orbital mission with satellite deployment
6.BFR manned orbital mission
7.BFR refuel in orbit
8.BFR manned operation BEO
9.BFR unmanned Mars mission
10.BFR manned Mars mission

You seem to be missing the elephant in the room IMO.

All those RFI that NASA issued recently were moon related. So SpaceX landing on the moon with an uncrewed BFS would shake a lot of money trees loose IMO.

They could fund the mission by selling 20 tons of moon rocks for example.

My opinion is that the gamechanger mission is BFS landing on the moon. Simply because everybody else is fixed to the moon. And there's not that much investment needed to do a lunar demonstration mission, it's 1 booster, 1 BFS landing on the moon and 2 BFS tankers. That's about 10 launches for this mission.

And they don't have to have completed R&D for this mission. I would estimate they have to spend 2-3 billion dollars to reach the point where they can land a single BFS on the moon. And once they've demonstrated they can land BFS on the moon, they are able to grab all the money that's thrown around.

So even if SpaceX is aiming for Mars, i think a BFS moon landing is the game changer.

If that test mission is sucessful, the SAME spaceship could be the one that does the first Mars landing. Label a mission to the moon the "MAIDEN CRUISE" of your Spaceship.
Consider that for a statement to the rest of the industry.

Those are crazy possibilities...
« Last Edit: 05/13/2018 08:11 pm by Bananas_on_Mars »

Offline meekGee

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #68 on: 05/13/2018 08:57 pm »
Rovers don’t.
Considering the flip-side - automated self-drive automobiles do.
There’s not a lot in common. If Tesla made autonomous mining equipment, you’d have a point. It’s a little like saying Tesla should build the octograbber just because the octograbber has wheels.

(Also, you cut out too much of the context of my quote so it doesn’t make any sense.)

OTOH a Tesla rover would have similar marketing kick to the cherry roadster...  A bunch of futuristic imagery with a "T" logo.  why not.

It's the same effort to build it in either company.  In advance of Mars surface activities SpaceX will need a team that can design Mars surface equipment, and whether it's a rover or an ISRU station, the environment is similar.
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Offline philw1776

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #69 on: 05/13/2018 10:08 pm »
Poll: Does SpaceX have an EXECUTABLE plan (both financial and human resources) for the 2017 Mars

I have no idea what this poll is asking

For me at least what I was getting at is:
    SpaceX has stated they have an aspirational goal of landing two cargo BFS's on Mars in 2022 followed boots on the ground in 2024.  They no doubt have a plan to accomplish this.  The question is, is that plan executable?

 Meaning:
      1. Has SpaceX identified all the funding source(s) needed to accomplish those tasks per the schedule specified?
      2  Does SpaceX have a hiring plan that would supplement their existing personnel to accomplish the task(s) within Space?  Naturally they can't have 2 without 1 being affirmative.

     If they can accomplish the aspirational schedule they must have already developed a Program Plan consistent with identified funding.  Then they will work that program plan with the resources they have or will have available.

Side Point:  Please let's keep this a  friendly discussion.  The poll is just to obtain a consensus opinion of this forum.

Still do not understand the poll question but as to your text, the answer is who knows?
Our opinions, however well reasoned, mean nothing as we have no substantive information beyond a few snippets, q.v. SpaceX is hiring solar power guys, etc.  The question, especially the 2nd  is currently unanswerable to any degree of certainty.

Opinion: Yeah, they've thought through the financing big-time.
The schedule is clearly aspirational.
Detailed hiring plans are worthless. No they do not have one.
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Offline chalz

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #70 on: 05/14/2018 12:30 am »
No, it is not their MO. Don't run before you can walk.

Probably The Boring Company was Elon getting as impatient as you and wanting to learn about ice mining and EV rovers but not being able to justify it within SpaceX at that time.

They will have ideas about habs and spacesuits and rough plans for ISRU and more definite(but not final plans) for in orbit refuelling and pretty good plans the booster and final first draft for a spaceship prototype. But they still are more focused, as a company, on DM1 and Dragon 2.

Offline ThereIWas3

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #71 on: 05/14/2018 12:34 am »
Equipment designed for use on Earth, whether made by CAT, Tesla, or Ikea, is way overbuilt for Mars.  When everything weighs one-third as much, things do not need to be so strong, and it is a waste of effort to transport the excess mass to Mars.  EVERYTHING needs to be redesigned.

Offline joek

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #72 on: 05/14/2018 12:57 am »
Equipment designed for use on Earth, whether made by CAT, Tesla, or Ikea, is way overbuilt for Mars.  When everything weighs one-third as much, things do not need to be so strong, and it is a waste of effort to transport the excess mass to Mars.  EVERYTHING needs to be redesigned.

Maybe.  What is the additional cost of transporting something overbuilt vs. redesigning it, especially if the transportation system has lots of mass margin?  Does EVERYTHING need to be resigned?  Unlikely.  Do some high mass items need to be redesigned?  Likely.  Trade-off is clear as mud to me.

Offline Joseph Peterson

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #73 on: 05/14/2018 02:51 am »
I am going to work under the assumption that SpaceX can successfully land 300 tonnes of cargo on the Martian surface in 2022.  Due to the lack of any currently announced Mars surface mission I will assume that all scouting has been done from orbit.  For now, I am not concerned about specific dollar amounts, although I will try to identify some costs.

Before I will consider the 2022 landing, I will touch on the satellite network.  One possibility is a fleet of modified Starlink satellites.  Modifications would include replacing excess communications capability with imaging capability, and a better clock.  Assuming that mass can be held to 800 kg(double that of Starlink's 400 kg maximum), FH can chuck up to 21 satellites toward Mars in one launch.  While I have made a lot of assumptions, I see no reason that humanity can't design a Martian satellite network that can send 12+ general purpose birds to Mars at a cost of >$500M.

Next I will consider the landing site.  Because of the risk of debris damage we can confidently assume that the two cargo ships will land some significant distance apart.  This means that we should expect that we will need an initial power supply for both craft.  For now, I will assume that BFS's solar panels are not available for surface use.  Our first order of business is then deploying solar panels, batteries, and charging stations that support BFS's crane and the rovers needed to assemble the base camp.  For now, I have a placeholder power supply mass of 10 tonnes(BFS batteries should still work on the surface).  Heavy construction equipment is currently bookmarked at 20 tonnes per BFS.  What I am envisioning is a >5t flatbed that contains the drive train and batteries, with purpose built modules that attach to points on the bed.

The next order of business is water extraction.  My preference is to send a wide variety of small technical demonstrators.  Since we are 99% sure we already know how to solve every other presupply problem that has to be solved, I prefer to dedicate 50 tonnes(including power supplies) per BFS to water extraction and purification hardware.  Water storage tanks(picture an above ground pool with the proper liner and lid) should require 1 tonne per 100 tonnes of water storage or less.  If we have at least two proven water extraction and purification techniques I am confident sending humans with 500 tonnes of tanked ISRU water on the Martian surface.  Thus, my placeholder for water tanks is 5 tonnes per BFS.

From here the question is what else do we want to test with the remaining 55 tonnes per BFS?  I prefer to have some methane and methanol(Shares similar hardware with methane) production for long term storage of any electricity surpluses.  This requires atmosphere compression and purification hardware(which we want to test anyway), as well as carbon dioxide electrolysis.  20 tonnes should buy us all of the hardware we need excluding electrolysis energy.  I prefer to include a small habitat on the order of 20 tonnes at each location.  This leaves 15 tonnes for other goodies.

I believe I have managed to provide basic mass estimates for every key technology that needs to be proven in presupply.  I have also allowed for exploration of two potential water supplies located near enough to allow mutual support.  The first crew has 3 potential fuel sources, methane, methanol, and carbon monoxide, as well as 2 non-biological oxygen sources.  These fuels are also key ingredients for the future chem lab(which provides raw materials to the future machine shop[which fixes our tools]).  Starter habs at both locations allow either to be chosen as the principle initial settlement, while providing a work space for resolving problems at the secondary site.  This would be much easier if we could send a fleet of Red Dragons to investigate multiple sites in 2020, but we're not.  My opinion is that setting up competing, yet complimentary, landing sites provides a higher overall chance of success.

Goodies Section

One of the other goodies I would consider is the inflatable garage.  Atmospheric compression testing during presupply should provide us with surplus(for now) nitrogen.  If we make the appropriate inverted bouncey castle we can trap heat inside while storing some nitrogen.  Argon could also be stored in this manner.

Another goody I am partial to is the surface algae tank demonstrator.  The primary goal during presupply is to determine if we can keep a specific set of algae strains alive using ISRU water, carbon dioxide, and nitrogen, combined with a fertilizer mix shipped from Earth.  The demonstrator should have a way to collect/vent excess oxygen and algae.  Ideally we are able to create a stockpile of frozen algae that can be used as a raw material once crew arrives.

Finally I would like to add the perchlorate reduction demonstrator.  Perchlorates are just chloride salts with unwanted oxygen.  That oxygen is much happier just about anywhere else, and will readily combine with any of the fuels I am contemplating.  The waste products are water, carbon dioxide, heat, and chloride salts that can be purified in our future chem lab.

Online niwax

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #74 on: 05/14/2018 08:25 am »
There is also the question if one fully refueled BFS couldn't take more than 150t to Mars, either landing heavier or leaving some stuff like rovers and habitat components in orbit for the arriving colonists to pick up once they've freed some space by jettisoning all the stuff they won't need on the surface. An additional 50t costs less than 500m/s on earth departure.

I could see something like this becoming routine later on. Load two BFS worth of cargo into one in LEO and then meet it at Mars with a tanker to prepare for landing.
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Offline Semmel

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #75 on: 05/14/2018 08:37 am »
I would leave at least 50mT on the table for the first flights. Its always good to have contingency. Rocket are rarely launched at their theoretical maximum payload.

Offline guckyfan

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #76 on: 05/14/2018 10:14 am »
I would leave at least 50mT on the table for the first flights. Its always good to have contingency. Rocket are rarely launched at their theoretical maximum payload.

I agree. I don't think they go for max payload. They may space the two vehicles by a week or so and land the second one with higher payload, feeding the experience of the first landing into the second one.

Offline guckyfan

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #77 on: 05/14/2018 10:18 am »
There is also the question if one fully refueled BFS couldn't take more than 150t to Mars..........

There are many options. They may fly one fast as intended to test hot EDL. They could fly the other more slowly and heavier, if they have the payload ready.

But I think they will want two fast flights because that is what they will do manned next window and want that tested.

Offline Slarty1080

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #78 on: 05/14/2018 05:10 pm »
I can see that many in the aerospace industry won’t take SpaceX seriously about the BFR until it's flying. The real question is how much flying is required before the BFR becomes a game changer? And by that I mean offers of partnership and large quantities of cash? I suspect that 2-3 might generate some tentative discussions whilst 4 would be the breakthrough point.

1.BFS low altitude hops up to 10km
2.BFS high altitude hops suborbital
3.BFB test flight with recovery. BFS carried and recovered
4.BFR orbital mission and return to earth unmanned
5.BFR orbital mission with satellite deployment
6.BFR manned orbital mission
7.BFR refuel in orbit
8.BFR manned operation BEO
9.BFR unmanned Mars mission
10.BFR manned Mars mission

You seem to be missing the elephant in the room IMO.

All those RFI that NASA issued recently were moon related. So SpaceX landing on the moon with an uncrewed BFS would shake a lot of money trees loose IMO.

They could fund the mission by selling 20 tons of moon rocks for example.

My opinion is that the gamechanger mission is BFS landing on the moon. Simply because everybody else is fixed to the moon. And there's not that much investment needed to do a lunar demonstration mission, it's 1 booster, 1 BFS landing on the moon and 2 BFS tankers. That's about 10 launches for this mission.

And they don't have to have completed R&D for this mission. I would estimate they have to spend 2-3 billion dollars to reach the point where they can land a single BFS on the moon. And once they've demonstrated they can land BFS on the moon, they are able to grab all the money that's thrown around.

So even if SpaceX is aiming for Mars, i think a BFS moon landing is the game changer.

If that test mission is sucessful, the SAME spaceship could be the one that does the first Mars landing. Label a mission to the moon the "MAIDEN CRUISE" of your Spaceship.
Consider that for a statement to the rest of the industry.

Those are crazy possibilities...
I agree, but still think that step 3-4 would be sufficient to prove SpaceX are serious and capable. At that point NASA might well become very keen to speak to SpaceX concerning a "step 8.5 Moon landing option". That would provide a lot of funds as well as practice flights for the BFR.
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Offline AncientU

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #79 on: 05/14/2018 05:43 pm »
...
I agree, but still think that step 3-4 would be sufficient to prove SpaceX are serious and capable. At that point NASA might well become very keen to speak to SpaceX concerning a "step 8.5 Moon landing option". That would provide a lot of funds as well as practice flights for the BFR.

1. It is already proven, as evidenced by 2. below.
2. The struggle to freeze them out of exploration is a result of their demonstrated capability.

Lots of NASA* and SLS/Orion contractor jobs/funds are in the balance.


* The Federal workforce can/will just go elsewhere...
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Offline John Alan

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #80 on: 05/14/2018 06:41 pm »
Equipment designed for use on Earth, whether made by CAT, Tesla, or Ikea, is way overbuilt for Mars.  When everything weighs one-third as much, things do not need to be so strong, and it is a waste of effort to transport the excess mass to Mars.  EVERYTHING needs to be redesigned.

You design a bulldozer that works well at 37% of earth gravity and see how screwed up that is...  :P
Things that need gravity to gain traction and do work, will need MORE mass to do the same amount of work off earth...
A D5k2 new build dozer weighs 20,313 us lbs and has only 104hp...
Why?... because 104hp will spin the tracks under load before it runs out of power (it does not need any more power)

A 100hp electric dozer on Mars needs to gross about 3 times that much mass to be able and use that and do the same work (in push force)...

So you can see... less gravity has it's downsides too... just saying...  ;)

Source...
https://www.cat.com/en_US/products/new/equipment/dozers.html

Offline Kansan52

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #81 on: 05/14/2018 07:07 pm »
Pardon  my ignorance but would wider tracks/treads (more surface area/more traction) compensate for the lower gravity?

Offline DistantTemple

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #82 on: 05/14/2018 07:31 pm »
Yes. First thought on freighting one to Mars, is to swap bits for space grade aluminium alloy, and drill big holes in other parts to lighten it! But as you say it would start figure skating when looking at a barrow load o dirt!. So some machines like dozers won't work well. of course provision could be made to ballast a light dozer on Mars, (with dense rock, or even ice despite its density! Then of course more energy is used.
I expect a digger or loader would be able to be anchored, in some way, but (later on) grading/dozing would mostly have a different solution such as being cable drawn, like the way traction engines used to plough! ...  Initially mining or drilling for ice, moving and setting out plant, with a little light grading to clear space for same, plus tracks, would need a versatile machine, rather than serious dozing...  If "sand" needs shifting, pumping is another option. (although with little atmosphere I expect that's quite different as the sand won't "aerate")

Wider tracks will reduce the pressure, but perhaps could be provided with larger "teeth" to grab more material... maybe, but that would then be a problem driving over rock.... I reckon digging, drilling etc machines will have ground anchors, and heavy dozing will need a Mars solution.
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Offline John Alan

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #83 on: 05/14/2018 08:02 pm »
Pardon  my ignorance but would wider tracks/treads (more surface area/more traction) compensate for the lower gravity?
Nope... wider tracks make things worse on loose surfaces... (sand, gravel, etc)...  :(

Rule of thumb is, a dozer can push with a force that equals it's instantaneous weight on tracks max...
So... it's dead weight plus the live weight of the stuff it's pushing (roughly)...
Downhill helps a lot and uphill suks badly... as adders and subtracts.. (gravity losses  ;D )

The other way to think of it is...
What ever force it takes to drag it with locked tracks...
It can push or pull with about that much force at a slow crawl...
It's an anchor that self propels...  ;)
« Last Edit: 05/14/2018 08:09 pm by John Alan »

Offline Semmel

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #84 on: 05/14/2018 08:09 pm »
Also all your lubricant will freeze/evaporate on Mars. Not good if you want to use your bulldozer for longer than 5 seconds. Not unsolvable but one of the reasons you cant just go and take one that works on Earth. You need near vacuum/cryogenic capable bearings and lubrication. And better make sure that the sand doesnt eat your gears either..

Offline Kansan52

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #85 on: 05/14/2018 08:38 pm »
This is an old article but Caterpillar and NASA have done research for Moon equipment:

https://www.caterpillar.com/en/news/caterpillarNews/innovation/nasa-caterpillar-collaboration-for-technology-advancement.html

Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #86 on: 05/14/2018 08:59 pm »
Also all your lubricant will freeze/evaporate on Mars. Not good if you want to use your bulldozer for longer than 5 seconds. Not unsolvable but one of the reasons you cant just go and take one that works on Earth. You need near vacuum/cryogenic capable bearings and lubrication. And better make sure that the sand doesnt eat your gears either..

My job is to design lubrication free undercarriages. Using non-exotic materials, you can expect 15,000-40,000 machine hours or 1,500-4,000 tram hours before the tracks are worn out.  Figure roughly 7,000 hours of work a year and an undercarriage with today's technology would last a synod.*

*This is only the undercarriage, today's technology uses sealed lubricated final drives to propel the undercarriage.

Offline Semmel

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #87 on: 05/14/2018 09:09 pm »
Also all your lubricant will freeze/evaporate on Mars. Not good if you want to use your bulldozer for longer than 5 seconds. Not unsolvable but one of the reasons you cant just go and take one that works on Earth. You need near vacuum/cryogenic capable bearings and lubrication. And better make sure that the sand doesnt eat your gears either..

My job is to design lubrication free undercarriages. Using non-exotic materials, you can expect 15,000-40,000 machine hours or 1,500-4,000 tram hours before the tracks are worn out.  Figure roughly 7,000 hours of work a year and an undercarriage with today's technology would last a synod.*

*This is only the undercarriage, today's technology uses sealed lubricated final drives to propel the undercarriage.

I didnt know such things exist. I just know that we use at work some cryo/vacuum ball bearings which are gold plated halfs and using ruby balls. Gold because its self lubricating and ruby because its not conductive and does not accidentally weld it self to the bearing halfs. But I guess these fall under exotic materials. Just shows that its not that easy to operate things in (near) vacuum as might be expected living in an atmosphere..

Offline speedevil

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #88 on: 05/14/2018 09:47 pm »

I didnt know such things exist. I just know that we use at work some cryo/vacuum ball bearings which are gold plated halfs and using ruby balls. Gold because its self lubricating and ruby because its not conductive and does not accidentally weld it self to the bearing halfs. But I guess these fall under exotic materials. Just shows that its not that easy to operate things in (near) vacuum as might be expected living in an atmosphere..

No, it doesn't.
That is only used because you have contamination concerns.
Vacuum greases are routinely available and quite inexpensive.
Common greases work more-or less fine if you select ones without volatiles. (strictly speaking, vapour pressure lower than the pressure on Mars)
https://www.univarsc.com/products/dow-corning-high-vacuum-grease?variant=43082577351
This is only expensive as it's one selected for low vapour pressure and contamination.

As a general point, if a hydrocarbon is volatile on Mars, to the point of forming bubbles, then it is a solvent, not a grease.

Anything with a boiling point under 150C or so will not boil on Mars at average surface conditions.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #89 on: 05/15/2018 12:15 am »
In regards to the poll, I chose "No" because I interpret the question as asking if we have been provided with enough information to determine if SpaceX now has everything they need. I don't think we're likely to ever have all the information we need to say yes.
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Offline John Alan

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #90 on: 05/15/2018 12:31 am »
This is an old article but Caterpillar and NASA have done research for Moon equipment:

https://www.caterpillar.com/en/news/caterpillarNews/innovation/nasa-caterpillar-collaboration-for-technology-advancement.html

Yes... researched some basic stuff in collaboration with NASA...
Mostly autonomous and human remote control of machines... which has reached the market now for sale...
But doing earthmoving on the scale we take as "ho-hum" on earth... Will be a "moonshot" to pull off on Mars...
The attached is one example of the most efficient way man has found to literally move mountains...
I am unable to imagine doing such a project on Mars... as the energy alone needed... staggers the imagination...  :-\
« Last Edit: 05/15/2018 12:36 am by John Alan »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #91 on: 05/15/2018 02:32 am »
This is an old article but Caterpillar and NASA have done research for Moon equipment:

https://www.caterpillar.com/en/news/caterpillarNews/innovation/nasa-caterpillar-collaboration-for-technology-advancement.html

Yes... researched some basic stuff in collaboration with NASA...
Mostly autonomous and human remote control of machines... which has reached the market now for sale...
But doing earthmoving on the scale we take as "ho-hum" on earth... Will be a "moonshot" to pull off on Mars...
The attached is one example of the most efficient way man has found to literally move mountains...
I am unable to imagine doing such a project on Mars... as the energy alone needed... staggers the imagination...  :-\

Meh, not that much energy compared to propellant production. The vehicle listed there is the Catepillar 651b, which has a 410kW PEAK motor power (i.e. most of the time, much less will be used, not even taking into account the reduced gravity). The solar panels likely to be used for a single BFS refueling per year would be like several Megawatts. A Tesla Model S can do up to 567kW peak, and the Tesla Semi can handle that continuously (based on its stated performance up a grade). Propellant production requires 500kW on average for a single BFS launch per year. So multiple such mining vehicles could be charged on a continuing basis using the power needed to refuel a single BFS just once a year.

Also, electric can help even more by allowing regenerative braking, which can potentially cause the mining equipment to be a net source of energy if the dump pile is lower than the source.
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Offline TomH

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #92 on: 05/15/2018 05:08 am »
One issue that needs to be included here is soil hardness. Most earth movers these days rely on paddle scrapers and do not need the additional push from a dozer. As you see on the dozer itself, rippers are sometimes used on hard soil beforehand so that the paddle scraper doesn't need the push from behind.

I used to live in a part of the CA Central Valley that had very hard clay soil about 18" deep, underlain by Duripan, a volcanically silica cemented sedimentary hardpan that was about the same hardness as non-industrial concrete. Vintners developing new vineyards would hire Cat D11R dozers with either dual 5' or single 7' rippers to tear the stuff apart and get the required drainage for grape roots not to rot. Hardpans like caliche, duripan, and ironpan, along with softer sandstones, are about as hard as can be ripped and then moved with dozers and earth movers without having to drill and blast first. There are many soils, however, that do not require anything more than root removal and then a paddle scraper. Some soils don't even need the paddles and can be scraped with just a stationary blade on the bottom of the scraper.

The point is that Mars will have a wide range of soil types as well. There will be no roots to rip out, but we know that there are sedimentary rocks whose formation involved water and mineralization, there are very old igneous rocks, there are sandstones. We know that quakes have not had a significant effect in a long time and that wind is the major form of erosion involved in relatively (geologically) recent  sedimentary formation. What we do not know is the full geologic variance in the surface. We do not know how much variance there is in hardness. This will affect how difficult grading and soil moving is on Mars. It would be helpful to know these things regarding specific sites before high mass machines are brought to an area. It would be sensible to bring only the size you need rather than bringing in something larger than required.


Offline guckyfan

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #93 on: 05/15/2018 06:12 am »
It would be sensible to bring only the size you need rather than bringing in something larger than required.

Very insightful post, thank you.

I want to comment on the last sentence only. Given that the plan is a constant upgrade and increase of flights every window too big is probably not really possible. What is not needed now will be needed in 2 or 4 years. It may well be the most efficient option to go as big as possible.

Offline geza

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #94 on: 05/15/2018 07:02 am »
In regards to the poll, I chose "No" because I interpret the question as asking if we have been provided with enough information to determine if SpaceX now has everything they need. I don't think we're likely to ever have all the information we need to say yes.
Sure, but in this sense the poll (the other ones also) is just meaningless. I interpreted it, as about our best guess given our information.

Offline Semmel

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #95 on: 05/15/2018 07:43 am »

I didnt know such things exist. I just know that we use at work some cryo/vacuum ball bearings which are gold plated halfs and using ruby balls. Gold because its self lubricating and ruby because its not conductive and does not accidentally weld it self to the bearing halfs. But I guess these fall under exotic materials. Just shows that its not that easy to operate things in (near) vacuum as might be expected living in an atmosphere..

No, it doesn't.
That is only used because you have contamination concerns.
Vacuum greases are routinely available and quite inexpensive.
Common greases work more-or less fine if you select ones without volatiles. (strictly speaking, vapour pressure lower than the pressure on Mars)
https://www.univarsc.com/products/dow-corning-high-vacuum-grease?variant=43082577351
This is only expensive as it's one selected for low vapour pressure and contamination.

As a general point, if a hydrocarbon is volatile on Mars, to the point of forming bubbles, then it is a solvent, not a grease.

Anything with a boiling point under 150C or so will not boil on Mars at average surface conditions.

Thank you for updating my knowledge, that is a good and consistent explanation.

Offline Semmel

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #96 on: 05/15/2018 07:45 am »
In regards to the poll, I chose "No" because I interpret the question as asking if we have been provided with enough information to determine if SpaceX now has everything they need. I don't think we're likely to ever have all the information we need to say yes.

To be honest, I dont even understand the question, so I didnt vote.

Offline testguy

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #97 on: 05/15/2018 06:12 pm »
In regards to the poll, I chose "No" because I interpret the question as asking if we have been provided with enough information to determine if SpaceX now has everything they need. I don't think we're likely to ever have all the information we need to say yes.

To be honest, I dont even understand the question, so I didnt vote.

Many have stated that they did not understand the question for the poll.  I attempted to explain the question in Reply 63 of this thread.  I guess that still was not clear because people still are posting that the question is not clear.

 Please let me try again to clarify:

First I added the poll because some had posted that in their opinion, SpaceX did not have a financial plan to support cargo flights in 2022 and boots on the ground in 2024.  There were also posts that SpaceX's manpower was not sufficient to support those flights while also designing and fabricating the necessary Mars ground equipment we all know is also needed.

The question simply is to get your opinion as to whether SpaceX will have money and people to make the 2022 & 2024 missions.  Example - Me, myself, and I can say I have a plan to land men on Pluto in 2020.  Everyone understands no matter what I tell you my plan says it is not executable.  No way will I have access to the money, or be able to hire talented staff to achieve that task.  Not to mention the physics will not work.

SpaceX has stated their aspirational plan is to launch cargo flights in 2022 and men to Mars in 2024.  Is that plan executable, meaning is there a complete detailed plan, including all the Mars ground equipment now in place that can achieve those objectives?

« Last Edit: 05/15/2018 06:34 pm by testguy »

Offline Semmel

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #98 on: 05/15/2018 06:46 pm »
In regards to the poll, I chose "No" because I interpret the question as asking if we have been provided with enough information to determine if SpaceX now has everything they need. I don't think we're likely to ever have all the information we need to say yes.

To be honest, I dont even understand the question, so I didnt vote.

Many have stated that they did not understand the question for the poll.  I attempted to explain the question in Reply 63 of this thread.  I guess that still was not clear because people still are posting that the question is not clear.

 Please let me try again to clarify:

First I added the poll because some had posted that in their opinion, SpaceX did not have a financial plan to support cargo flights in 2022 and boots on the ground in 2024.  There were also posts that SpaceX's manpower was not sufficient to support those flights while also designing and fabricating the necessary Mars ground equipment we all know is also needed.

The question simply is to get your opinion as to whether SpaceX will have money and people to make the 2022 & 2024 missions.  Example - Me, myself, and I can say I have a plan to land men on Pluto in 2020.  Everyone understands no matter what I tell you my plan says it is not executable.  No way will I have access to the money, or be able to hire talented staff to achieve that task.  Not to mention the physics will not work.

SpaceX has stated their aspirational plan is to launch cargo flights in 2022 and men to Mars in 2024.  Is that plan executable, meaning is there a complete detailed plan, including all the Mars ground equipment now in place that can achieve those objectives?

If that is your intention, can you phrase the title of the poll a bit better? I have no idea what it has to do with 2017 for instance. Makes no sense to me at all. Also, some more words wouldnt go amiss.

Offline testguy

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #99 on: 05/15/2018 07:13 pm »
In regards to the poll, I chose "No" because I interpret the question as asking if we have been provided with enough information to determine if SpaceX now has everything they need. I don't think we're likely to ever have all the information we need to say yes.

To be honest, I dont even understand the question, so I didnt vote.

Many have stated that they did not understand the question for the poll.  I attempted to explain the question in Reply 63 of this thread.  I guess that still was not clear because people still are posting that the question is not clear.

 Please let me try again to clarify:

First I added the poll because some had posted that in their opinion, SpaceX did not have a financial plan to support cargo flights in 2022 and boots on the ground in 2024.  There were also posts that SpaceX's manpower was not sufficient to support those flights while also designing and fabricating the necessary Mars ground equipment we all know is also needed.

The question simply is to get your opinion as to whether SpaceX will have money and people to make the 2022 & 2024 missions.  Example - Me, myself, and I can say I have a plan to land men on Pluto in 2020.  Everyone understands no matter what I tell you my plan says it is not executable.  No way will I have access to the money, or be able to hire talented staff to achieve that task.  Not to mention the physics will not work.

SpaceX has stated their aspirational plan is to launch cargo flights in 2022 and men to Mars in 2024.  Is that plan executable, meaning is there a complete detailed plan, including all the Mars ground equipment now in place that can achieve those objectives?

If that is your intention, can you phrase the title of the poll a bit better? I have no idea what it has to do with 2017 for instance. Makes no sense to me at all. Also, some more words wouldnt go amiss.

Got it.  I rephrased the question.   When I said Mars 2017, I was referring to IAC 2017.  Understand why that was not clear.
Thanks

Offline Semmel

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #100 on: 05/15/2018 08:02 pm »
Got it.  I rephrased the question.   When I said Mars 2017, I was referring to IAC 2017.  Understand why that was not clear.
Thanks

Thanks, that actually makes sense now. I voted "no". Its too ambitious. Eventually they will get there but I dont see them fulfill their timeline. I would be happy if BFR/BFS assists in launching the internet constellation.

Online dglow

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #101 on: 05/15/2018 08:13 pm »
The poll is question is ambiguous for me due to the emphasis on EXECUTABLE; its wording implies too many questions for a precise, yes/no answer.


- Does SpaceX have a complete and executable plan to achieve IAC 2017's objectives?
  Yes, I believe it does.

- Will SpaceX achieve IAC 2017's objectives?
  Yes

- Will it do so on the timeline outlined at IAC 2017?
  No, likely not.

Offline testguy

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #102 on: 05/16/2018 03:25 pm »
The poll is question is ambiguous for me due to the emphasis on EXECUTABLE; its wording implies too many questions for a precise, yes/no answer.


- Does SpaceX have a complete and executable plan to achieve IAC 2017's objectives?
  Yes, I believe it does.

- Will SpaceX achieve IAC 2017's objectives?
  Yes

- Will it do so on the timeline outlined at IAC 2017?
  No, likely not.

It appears that many believe this is the correct format for the poll so I changed it.  BTW executable to me simply means that it is possible to be achieved.  Not that it will be achieved just that it is possible.

Offline envy887

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #103 on: 05/16/2018 03:39 pm »
The poll is question is ambiguous for me due to the emphasis on EXECUTABLE; its wording implies too many questions for a precise, yes/no answer.


- Does SpaceX have a complete and executable plan to achieve IAC 2017's objectives?
  Yes, I believe it does.

- Will SpaceX achieve IAC 2017's objectives?
  Yes

- Will it do so on the timeline outlined at IAC 2017?
  No, likely not.

It appears that many believe this is the correct format for the poll so I changed it.  BTW executable to me simply means that it is possible to be achieved.  Not that it will be achieved just that it is possible.

This is better, but I don't think quite captures what you want. Instead of

Quote
  - Does SpaceX have a complete and executable plan to achieve IAC 2017's objectives?  Yes, I believe it does.
  - Will SpaceX achieve IAC 2017's objectives including aspirational timeline?  Yes.
  - Will SpaceX do it on the timeline outlined at IAC 2017?  No, not likely.

It should be

Quote
Does SpaceX have a complete and executable plan to achieve IAC 2017's objectives? 
 - Yes, and SpaceX will achieve IAC 2017's objectives including aspirational timeline.
 - Yes, SpaceX has an executable plan but will NOT do it on the timeline outlined at IAC 2017.
 - No, SpaceX does not have an executable plan to achieve the goals outlined at IAC 2017 in any reasonable timeline.

Online dglow

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #104 on: 05/16/2018 04:20 pm »
Agreed. My three questions were independent, but for a single-answer multiple choice format, you need envy887's wording.
« Last Edit: 05/16/2018 04:21 pm by dglow »

Offline testguy

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #105 on: 05/16/2018 08:53 pm »
UNCLE!  The tread morphed into wording of the poll.  I changed the poll yet again to "Should the poll be deleted?  I voted yes.  Please let this poll die a peaceful death.  There are more important things to discuss.

Online dglow

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #106 on: 05/17/2018 12:34 am »
UNCLE!  The tread morphed into wording of the poll.  I changed the poll yet again to "Should the poll be deleted?  I voted yes.  Please let this poll die a peaceful death.  There are more important things to discuss.

Well, hey, it’s nobody’s goal for you to cry ‘mercy’.  Discussions around here go meta pretty fast, and responses can sometimes feel harsh. But! In the end we, collectively, arrived at an optimal way of asking what (I think) you were trying to get at. That it took 100 posts is, er... the cost of crowd wisdom?

I suggest you reach out to a mod, have this thread locked, and start a new, fresh poll thread with a nice opening post encapsulating all that’s been clarified here, with clean wording of the poll question. I would definitely like to see the results of that poll, and am confident many others would too.  :)

Offline TomH

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #107 on: 05/18/2018 01:47 am »
It would be sensible to bring only the size you need rather than bringing in something larger than required.

Very insightful post, thank you.

I want to comment on the last sentence only. Given that the plan is a constant upgrade and increase of flights every window too big is probably not really possible. What is not needed now will be needed in 2 or 4 years. It may well be the most efficient option to go as big as possible.

Another point to consider is how effective can ISRU be at providing mere ballast when higher weight is required for things like traction (I say weight rather than mass because Mars' lower gravity results in lower weight for the same mass where weight is actually what matters for traction.) It would seem logical to build Aluminum, Titanium, or Carbon Fiber machines for easier transport to Mars, and then ballast the things with the highest density materials that can be locally mined as ISRU. If enough water can be found and absolutely leakproof tires can be manufactured, ISRU water filled tires would be fairly high density and could be a good utilization.
« Last Edit: 05/18/2018 01:50 am by TomH »

Offline Lar

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #108 on: 05/18/2018 02:37 am »
I can lock it, no problem.

Get the poll question wording right first, then lock. Reach out to me if you need help creating the poll but I thkn you can handle it

remember our norms are vote first ,THEN see results, and 30-31 days for the poll to run.
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Offline TomH

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #109 on: 05/18/2018 06:43 am »
I am curious as to how much research they have done on Mars agriculture. I would think the most pragmatic approach would be to have a person, or working group, to first gather and consolidate research that has already been done on ISS, at universities, research labs for Ag giants like ADM, etc. I would think that if ISRU water is located, hydroponics should be of great interests. If any Mark Watney pressurized potato gardens are to be started, a lot more soil amendment will be needed other than human waste. Research needs to be done into how sterile Martian regolith can be cultured with bacteria and fungi decomposers that can recycle parts of plants that are not consumed. Plants grow best in organic humus rich soil. How do you start with regolith that has no decomposing organic matter and develop it into that type soil? On Earth, nitrogen fixing bacteria in the soil around roots are very important. As nitrogen is not in abundant supply on Mars, growing plants in that soil is going to be very different.

How will they look for various ISRU minerals that may be helpful in agriculture: sorties, satellite observation? Will farming be conducted where both minerals and water are located, or will minerals be mined and transported to Ag locations?

Getting to Mars will only require already prepared food currently used on ISS. Moving toward colonization will require serious research into Martian agriculture. I do wonder how deeply investigation and research into that field (pun only half intended) has been undertaken.
« Last Edit: 05/18/2018 06:56 am by TomH »

Offline Bananas_on_Mars

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #110 on: 05/18/2018 07:58 am »
My personal opinion is that SpaceX won't need anything but a functioning BFS for the 2022 timeframe. They will load the first (2) BFS with everything that is ready to be brought to mars (maybe some rovers, some solar, ISRU demonstration unit) plus bulk cargo for the rest, anything that might be of value for the first crew.

I don't think crew will follow the next synod.
My personal guess is that they intend to spark worldwide interest by being capable of flying crew to mars, and there might be no shortage of contributors worldwide, once that capability has been demonstrated. If they land crew on Mars the following synod, i don't expect they will already have a fully fuelled BFS sitting on the ground.

Once they have landed the first BFS on Mars, their efforts will shift to make ISRU work, because it's their main task once on mars to make return possible. For everything else, they will maybe coordinate efforts from external partners, but will rely on multiple contributors to make everything else besides the transportation system.

They are willing to evolve a system, and for the first mission to mars, a functioning BFS is all they need.

As a comment to heavy construction equipment mentioned before:
A proper handheld impact drill, a (electric) winch and some explosives already go a long way if you want to clear landing zones for the next spaceships etc.
Just like plowing fields during the time of steam powered machinery.

Building infrastructure can partly be done with things like sandbags.

There's no need to go the high tech route for every single thing. Improvisation and Utilisation of local resources, and tools that enable improvisation will be more important for survival on Mars than hightech specialised machinery IMO.

Offline docmordrid

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #111 on: 05/18/2018 09:20 am »
I am curious as to how much research they have done on Mars agriculture. I would think the most pragmatic approach would be to have a person, or working group, to first gather and consolidate research that has already been done on ISS, at universities, research labs for Ag giants like ADM, etc.
>

Musks brother Kimball runs Square Roots, a company which is based on promoting the growing produce in shipping containers. Akin to SNC/ORBITEC's VEGGIE on steroids.



There are also numerous automated indoor hydroponic techs which are being deployed commercially.

« Last Edit: 05/18/2018 09:33 am by docmordrid »
DM

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #112 on: 05/22/2018 01:12 am »
I am curious as to how much research they have done on Mars agriculture. I would think the most pragmatic approach would be to have a person, or working group, to first gather and consolidate research that has already been done on ISS, at universities, research labs for Ag giants like ADM, etc.
>

Musks brother Kimball runs Square Roots, a company which is based on promoting the growing produce in shipping containers. Akin to SNC/ORBITEC's VEGGIE on steroids.

SpaceX had also bought produce from a local (to them) company called Local Roots, which was doing a similar thing.

Offline DistantTemple

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #113 on: 05/29/2018 12:16 am »
I am curious as to how much research they have done on Mars agriculture. I would think the most pragmatic approach would be to have a person, or working group, to first gather and consolidate research that has already been done on ISS, at universities, research labs for Ag giants like ADM, etc.
>

Musks brother Kimball runs Square Roots, a company which is based on promoting the growing produce in shipping containers. Akin to SNC/ORBITEC's VEGGIE on steroids.

SpaceX had also bought produce from a local (to them) company called Local Roots, which was doing a similar thing.
Mushrooms are grown in unused tunnels under London UK. They would add protein, taste and variety to a Mars diet.
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Offline laszlo

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #114 on: 05/29/2018 02:04 am »

Mushrooms are grown in unused tunnels under London UK. They would add protein, taste and variety to a Mars diet.

The nauseating texture, smell and taste of mushrooms would be enough to put me off of colonizing the City of London, let alone an airless frozen desert. Even watney-taters sound more attractive. Please, agriculturists, find something better and save HSF.

Offline DistantTemple

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #115 on: 05/29/2018 02:35 am »
As OP says, take it as given that 2022 cargo, 2024 crew take place:
(I'll try not to cover what is already discussed unless I have an additional opinion, or input.)
Food and farming on Mars: 2022 Dry/sealed emergency/backup rations in place as cargo. 2024, small led hydroponic/ similar "container farms" for (delicious amazing nutritious) mushrooms, herbs, and salad to add interest taste and nutrition, but not particularly calories to the Aeronauts diet, and as experiment. Bulk of calories, protein and fats delivered from earth both as astronaut style meals and dry beans, rice, flour, TVP, soya etc..

Construction materials / processes / equipment I think EM is fixated on his compacted soil bricks because he sees them as great on Mars. Concrete has drawbacks and difficulties because of temperature and low pressure. The compacted bricks displace significant concrete use. I think there will be a demo/experimental compaction plant in 2022 as results from that will inform planning for 2024. It may even be possible (ok this sounds far fetched) to robotically produce a landing pad using interlocking slabs made from compressed regolith and resin. (It is essential that at least one BFR is guaranteed undamaged and reusable for earth return.)
Concrete will work, but requires levels of protection from vacuum and cold, depending on its use, and the quality needed.
As discussed above a machine to clear paths and landing area. Possibly using opposing blades under a single vehicle to mitigate the reduced traction available. Possibly using thumping, or vibration etc to compress a surface to level.
Essential to have some demonstration of handling packages (lifting/towing) on the 2022 mission, to optimise plans for 2024. Essential to demonstrate mining ice for the same reason.
ISRU 2022 absolutely essential and has been promised that this will be included. IMO this only needs to demonstrate that it works, and not refill a BFR before 2024. Early results may allow minor modification before 2024 when (redundant) full scale implementations will be needed to function and refill at least a return ship. (OK we have been over this a lot) Getting a better picture of methane available will be important from the start as if it is available it could change the content of the 2024 mission.
Exploration This is really important, and IMO needs some kind of mission in 2020 that no one is suggesting, and at the absolute minimum would be satellites with as high quality cameras as EM can get, and remote sensing for water, methane, and other geology. As this will inform 2022, and 2024. A rover(s) would be worth every effort! If not 2020, then obviously 2022 - several satellites and rovers as discussed...
Electricity/Energy endlessly discussed... in house solar and batteries on both 2022, and 2024. Automatic(ish) deployment systems. A system for rovers to plug in and self-charge will be needed.
IMO Nuclear will be contributed by NASA with possibly an early test system by 2024, and will be completely non critical-path. Mirrors to concentrate solar energy may be used but unlikely in 2024. But possibly in 2026 for heat, electricity, and direct smelting. Especially if Nuclear is either slow, or ethically disliked.
Habitats OK EM says the BFS will be the first habitat. However it requires a lift to enter and leave, and is in a fixed location. IMO there will be a Bigelow habitat. And at least a small one will be included in 2022 so it can be already in place in case of issues in 2024. Again remote testing will inform the 2024 mission. Such a habitat is an excellent opportunity for partnering. This could be paid for by commercial suppliers as a demonstrator of ECLSS etc. and still be very useful. In 2024 a rover/habitat(s) will be essential to developing the Mars presence.
Surface habitat(s) will be essential for convenience of not climbing back to the BFS
Shielding from radiation will be needed for (an ethical) 2 year stay. So the BFS will not be adequate for long. Therefore tunneling or building will be needed to enclose a habitat. Therefore in 2022 enough prospecting and tests will have to take place to plan and select equipment for 2024. Still in 2024 a couple of solutions can be taken forward, including mining an ice cave and inserting a habitat, mining into a rock escarpment and inserting a habitat, and building strong, self supporting segments over a habitat, and burying it in material.
Metallurgy/Chemistry/Research/Manufacturing Although not "core technologies" for 2022, or 2024, IMO EM will not want to "give these away" to external industry. He will go for university and research collaboration, and maybe commercial within strict conditions. IMO EM will not want all the best resources around his first city "owned" by multinationals, or anyone else that will cramp his style. IMO he will want the "mine-to-factory-to-product" path under close control in all core areas. But in 2022 collaborating research teams can sponsor, or provide exploration rovers and experiments, and in 2024 take this to the next level with experimental extraction and processing. This will include manufacturing, both building materials and components, and replacement parts with feedstock from Earth. In 2024 a "workshop" with additive manufacturing as well as more conventional drill lathe etc CAD/CAM to keep equipment operational, and make adaptions will be needed. This is in line with SX's "try it out" ethos, and will be comfortable to SX engineers included in the mission. There will be plenty of practical maintenance skills in the team.
O2, water, have been covered elsewhere.
Thats enough for now. IMO EM is (quietly) thinking a long way ahead and lining up his chess pieces. He may not be able to put big teams on future uncertain projects, but he is very likely to be trying to avoid future bottlenecks due to lack of forethought. Tom Mueller has been working on Raptor for years, there is ECLSS in Dragon 2, ISRU is a core technology, he is lining up compressed soil bricks, and tunnelling... and satellites... Loads of things we have not seen will come out of the woodwork, ready to be at least trialled.

Edit: Mushrooms accurate descriptive vocabulary... (delicious amazing nutritious)
« Last Edit: 05/29/2018 02:44 am by DistantTemple »
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Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #116 on: 05/29/2018 03:32 am »

Mushrooms are grown in unused tunnels under London UK. They would add protein, taste and variety to a Mars diet.

The nauseating texture, smell and taste of mushrooms would be enough to put me off of colonizing the City of London, let alone an airless frozen desert. Even watney-taters sound more attractive. Please, agriculturists, find something better and save HSF.
I doubt if there is any food universally loved by everyone.  There will have to be a variety to satisfy a variety of palates.

Offline Bananas_on_Mars

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #117 on: 05/29/2018 04:50 am »
Of all the things you can grow on mars, mushrooms are the worst choice for starting. They don't grow on thin air, they need heaps of organic material that they will feed on, the parts you eat are only a small part of the organism, essentially only the parts needed for reproduction.

With regards to machining equipment: IMO needed to make the tools you forgot to bring (because you didn't think you'd need them), but there's no need to manufacture complex rocket parts. There will be quite a few BFS that will stay on mars at first that can be scavenged for parts.

You can possibly even use those expended BFS for habitation purposes after you've brought them to a horizontal position. Cut them in half lengthwise, cover with soil from clearing further landing zones. That gives you some protected space that could maybe be a workshop of sorts.
« Last Edit: 05/29/2018 05:10 am by Bananas_on_Mars »

Offline guckyfan

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #118 on: 05/29/2018 05:33 am »

Mushrooms are grown in unused tunnels under London UK. They would add protein, taste and variety to a Mars diet.

The nauseating texture, smell and taste of mushrooms would be enough to put me off of colonizing the City of London, let alone an airless frozen desert. Even watney-taters sound more attractive. Please, agriculturists, find something better and save HSF.

You may prefer meal worms then?  :)


Offline guckyfan

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #119 on: 05/29/2018 05:35 am »
Of all the things you can grow on mars, mushrooms are the worst choice for starting. They don't grow on thin air, they need heaps of organic material that they will feed on, the parts you eat are only a small part of the organism, essentially only the parts needed for reproduction.

Not the first but as soon as there is production of vegetables. There are plenty of plant parts that can not be eaten and are suitable to grow mushrooms on.

Offline docmordrid

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #120 on: 05/29/2018 05:35 am »
Of all the things you can grow on mars, mushrooms are the worst choice for starting. They don't grow on thin air, they need heaps of organic material that they will feed on, the parts you eat are only a small part of the organism, essentially only the parts needed for reproduction.
>

The cellulosic and other materials they grow on can be agricultural and other waste, and the leftovers can be composted to grow more crops.

So long as their growth chamber is maintained at 1 atmosphere (barring a low pressure genmod) they're quite productive, and a large number of people enjoy them more than a little.
« Last Edit: 05/29/2018 05:38 am by docmordrid »
DM

Offline DistantTemple

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #121 on: 05/29/2018 01:26 pm »
Of all the things you can grow on mars, mushrooms are the worst choice for starting. They don't grow on thin air, they need heaps of organic material that they will feed on, the parts you eat are only a small part of the organism, essentially only the parts needed for reproduction.
>

The cellulosic and other materials they grow on can be agricultural and other waste, and the leftovers can be composted to grow more crops.

So long as their growth chamber is maintained at 1 atmosphere (barring a low pressure genmod) they're quite productive, and a large number of people enjoy them more than a little.
I had only thought of Mushrooms shortly before posting... possibly because I had been a day without them... and have not thought through how suitable for Mars they would really be. It was just if they are grown in the dark in cellars they won't need much space or energy on Mars! However your replies docmordrid, and
Quote from: guckyfan
Not the first but as soon as there is production of vegetables. There are plenty of plant parts that can not be eaten and are suitable to grow mushrooms on.
are very informative, and spark off a new direction... because mushrooms are part of the natural recycling of nature, they become part of recreating that cycle (at first partially and artificially with complete human/robotic management) on Mars. Other biological processes could/should soon be added to close as many biological loops as possible. Mushrooms seem to be an excellent start... as well as being delicious, and I think great as an option for the first explorers in 2024.

Obviously allowance on Mars must be made for otherwise sane and useful people who have unnatural limitations around fungi. Dried bananas are a good chew, and deliverable from earth. But laszlo will probably have to stay out in a rover miles from base! but seriously intensive farming could be in a separate hab, without direct connection to living spaces, to manage smells, mold, and condensation. This would be important for reliability of electronics, life support, seals, and good health.
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Offline DistantTemple

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #122 on: 05/29/2018 01:35 pm »
And EM "started" with the greenhouse concept. therefore plants for eating will definitely be included in 2024. I believe Kimble is organic. All organic ppl believe in compost and natural cycles. I can't imagine closing lifecycle loops and becoming self sufficient in food is not a goal for EM's lifetime and therefore an influence on early projects.

EM blatantly referrs to terraforming, and "Its a fixer-upper of a planet" is an SX mantra. Will fungi be early releases into the wild... or cacti, with modifications etc... but this is OT.
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Offline philw1776

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #123 on: 05/29/2018 02:38 pm »
As OP says, take it as given that 2022 cargo, 2024 crew take place:
(I'll try not to cover what is already discussed unless I have an additional opinion, or input.)
[methane available will be important from the start as if it is available it could change the content of the 2024 mission.
Exploration This is really important, and IMO needs some kind of mission in 2020 that no one is suggesting, and at the absolute minimum would be satellites with as high quality cameras as EM can get, and remote sensing for water, methane, and other geology. As this will inform 2022, and 2024. A rover(s) would be worth every effort! If not 2020, then obviously 2022 - several satellites and rovers as discussed...


Been suggested by several including me.
I'm thinking about starting a thread focused on the topic of How SpaceX will select their aspirational mission landing site.  Where it likely could and likely should not be.  It would be highly speculative as we have little concrete SpaceX sourced information.
FULL SEND!!!!

Offline DistantTemple

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #124 on: 05/29/2018 03:44 pm »
Of all the things you can grow on mars, mushrooms are the worst choice for starting. They don't grow on thin air, they need heaps of organic material that they will feed on, the parts you eat are only a small part of the organism, essentially only the parts needed for reproduction.

With regards to machining equipment: IMO needed to make the tools you forgot to bring (because you didn't think you'd need them), but there's no need to manufacture complex rocket parts. There will be quite a few BFS that will stay on mars at first that can be scavenged for parts.

You can possibly even use those expended BFS for habitation purposes after you've brought them to a horizontal position. Cut them in half lengthwise, cover with soil from clearing further landing zones. That gives you some protected space that could maybe be a workshop of sorts.
Mushrooms: disagree. For many they have the emotion and taste of frying bacon. They remind one of Bilbo Baggins, in his burrow, with round "airlock like" doors, under a mound of sheilding. They naturally fit with living below ground. And since (as I claim above) working towards closed biological cycles and sustainability is a long term goal, including some compost as freight will be legitimate, for that goal and for food contribution. I don't know if it can be dried or vacuum packed and still contain all necessary lifeforms on re-hydration.

machining equipment: Agree, forgotten tools etc... Yes there will be an immediate spares facility/junkyard! However IMO SX will plan favoured use of each BFS in advance, and modify that if needed depending on landed condition. I said one BFS needs to be undamaged for return, (that is just the absolute safety minimum)  but EM has said they will be reused many times. Losing/scrapping 5 out of 6 in two synods would be a large loss. (and only relevant if significantly damaged, or essential for e.g. permanent ISRU tankage.)

"possibly even use those expended BFS" However, if one was to be used as a "permanent" habitable space, rotating it horizontal would be really useful. Breaching the habitation pressure vessel would NOT. And the propellant tanks would be most useful as tanks. The benefits (of rotating horizontal) 1. Entry at ground level(ish).2. large accessible volume 3. Possible to build partial radiation shield over it. 4. Removal of spares like engines will be easier closer to the ground. Hopefully batteries/computers ECLSS, equipment may all still be usable and useful. Drawbacks: 1. Mechanism to rotate it, difficult and time consuming, and risk of damage to the pressure structure. 2. Internal accommodations will have had to be optimised for vertical for initial hab use, and this will have to be modified, wasting manpower. 3. The CF shell is strong for pressure, and flight loads, but not against point loads, or accidental bashes. One significant bash might destroy its safety as a human rated pressure vessel. (unlike a Bigello module that is tough to impacts.)  4. the BSF is permanently retired, when otherwise it may have reentered service in the next synod.

IMO I now think the initial BFS/hab will not be compromised, but only be used as habitation until surface HABs are commissioned in the first months, then be overflow/alternative/office/lab space without modifying the BFS. The lack of shielding, vertically optimised interior, and $value as a BFS outweigh its limited horizontal shelter value.

edit: and so laying a rock free landing surface is an essential economic element. (- in 2022 before 2024)
« Last Edit: 05/29/2018 03:56 pm by DistantTemple »
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Offline AncientU

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #125 on: 05/29/2018 06:35 pm »
Think there is way too much worry/effort around reusing the BFSs that make the first few landings. Of the first six that land, one or two need to return.  The rest are incredibly valuable as habs, ISRU facilities, storage tanks, whatever.  Yes, these are expensive ships and they must evolve to be repeatedly reusable, but their value when parked on the surface of Mars is priceless.  Compare to other architectures that cost billions to establish a 'long stay' on the surface... most mass being expended with a single use/landing.

My view is that the first 2 cargo ships will simply be built to stay and be useful long term.  Of the next four, two will have crew and at least one -- but probably two -- be refueled for the return trip.  Once there are adequate landing pads and other ground support equipment, the flights will all be planned for short surface stays and multiple round trips.

Using this model, 'The Rest of the Story' is how do you pack out the first half dozen vehicles with adequate 'stuff' for starting a settlement.  Much of the equipment on board could be installed permanently (e.g., ISRU propellant plant and tankage, air products separation facility/compressors/storage bottles).  Other available payload could be used for building landing pads, water extraction, exploration/prospecting, tunneling, agricultural facilities/supplies, etc.
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Offline Bananas_on_Mars

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #126 on: 05/29/2018 07:10 pm »
Of all the things you can grow on mars, mushrooms are the worst choice for starting. They don't grow on thin air, they need heaps of organic material that they will feed on, the parts you eat are only a small part of the organism, essentially only the parts needed for reproduction.

With regards to machining equipment: IMO needed to make the tools you forgot to bring (because you didn't think you'd need them), but there's no need to manufacture complex rocket parts. There will be quite a few BFS that will stay on mars at first that can be scavenged for parts.

You can possibly even use those expended BFS for habitation purposes after you've brought them to a horizontal position. Cut them in half lengthwise, cover with soil from clearing further landing zones. That gives you some protected space that could maybe be a workshop of sorts.
Mushrooms: disagree. For many they have the emotion and taste of frying bacon. They remind one of Bilbo Baggins, in his burrow, with round "airlock like" doors, under a mound of sheilding. They naturally fit with living below ground. And since (as I claim above) working towards closed biological cycles and sustainability is a long term goal, including some compost as freight will be legitimate, for that goal and for food contribution. I don't know if it can be dried or vacuum packed and still contain all necessary lifeforms on re-hydration.

machining equipment: Agree, forgotten tools etc... Yes there will be an immediate spares facility/junkyard! However IMO SX will plan favoured use of each BFS in advance, and modify that if needed depending on landed condition. I said one BFS needs to be undamaged for return, (that is just the absolute safety minimum)  but EM has said they will be reused many times. Losing/scrapping 5 out of 6 in two synods would be a large loss. (and only relevant if significantly damaged, or essential for e.g. permanent ISRU tankage.)

"possibly even use those expended BFS" However, if one was to be used as a "permanent" habitable space, rotating it horizontal would be really useful. Breaching the habitation pressure vessel would NOT. And the propellant tanks would be most useful as tanks. The benefits (of rotating horizontal) 1. Entry at ground level(ish).2. large accessible volume 3. Possible to build partial radiation shield over it. 4. Removal of spares like engines will be easier closer to the ground. Hopefully batteries/computers ECLSS, equipment may all still be usable and useful. Drawbacks: 1. Mechanism to rotate it, difficult and time consuming, and risk of damage to the pressure structure. 2. Internal accommodations will have had to be optimised for vertical for initial hab use, and this will have to be modified, wasting manpower. 3. The CF shell is strong for pressure, and flight loads, but not against point loads, or accidental bashes. One significant bash might destroy its safety as a human rated pressure vessel. (unlike a Bigello module that is tough to impacts.)  4. the BSF is permanently retired, when otherwise it may have reentered service in the next synod.

IMO I now think the initial BFS/hab will not be compromised, but only be used as habitation until surface HABs are commissioned in the first months, then be overflow/alternative/office/lab space without modifying the BFS. The lack of shielding, vertically optimised interior, and $value as a BFS outweigh its limited horizontal shelter value.

edit: and so laying a rock free landing surface is an essential economic element. (- in 2022 before 2024)
There's a lot more efficient ways to deal with surplus cellulose materials than mushrooms IMO. I don't think they have the pastime to tinker with growing stuff "organic" on Mars. I guess it's more likely to see heavily "bioengineered" crops, possibly algae etc.

Returning BFS: Currently SpaceX is expending Block 4 boosters and has only flown 1 Block 5 booster yet. I'm sure there will be quite some updates during the early years of BFS use. I assume they would treat mars missions as end-of-lifetime missions for the first few synods. The first BFS to (try to) land on mars will probably be a partially upgraded prototype.

I think what will definitely be needed for the "early mars days" will be some shirtsleeve workshop for working on automated rovers and crewed rovers. I can't see this done with EVA suits. Construction equipment on earth has some really high maintenance needs. I don't think you will be able to design stuff for mars that simply won't break down.

To bring an empty BFS into horizontal position, you might just need some winches and cables if you can get appropriate anchor points (here's a showing the principle)

Offline DistantTemple

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #127 on: 05/29/2018 08:38 pm »

snip...Your post
snip...My reply

There's a lot more efficient ways to deal with surplus cellulose materials than mushrooms IMO. I don't think they have the pastime to tinker with growing stuff "organic" on Mars. I guess it's more likely to see heavily "bioengineered" crops, possibly algae etc.

Returning BFS: Currently SpaceX is expending Block 4 boosters and has only flown 1 Block 5 booster yet. I'm sure there will be quite some updates during the early years of BFS use. I assume they would treat mars missions as end-of-lifetime missions for the first few synods. The first BFS to (try to) land on mars will probably be a partially upgraded prototype.

I think what will definitely be needed for the "early mars days" will be some shirtsleeve workshop for working on automated rovers and crewed rovers. I can't see this done with EVA suits. Construction equipment on earth has some really high maintenance needs. I don't think you will be able to design stuff for mars that simply won't break down.

To bring an empty BFS into horizontal position, you might just need some winches and cables if you can get appropriate anchor points (here's a showing the principle)
I appreciate your comparison with the BFS, and to mention scale, is a temptation I can't resist. :-)

You may be right about all points. Valid opinions. I concede that Kimbal Musk's "Square Roots", says nothing about organic, and it is a hydroponic setup. They do specifically state GM free! And if that works now there is no reason to change that at first. (Obviously for adapting to Mars later there will likely be.) Although I'm sure they touted low/no pesticides etc. It will be very important to maintain quality of life and not sink into utilitarianism. Alge may be used, but taste, salad, and some quality food will help physical and mental health. It will be great to see what SX chooses to take! Mushrooms and progress towards eventual artificial ecosystem, are my bet, but clearly hydroponics can be completely stand-alone, and its a dead cert I reckon that Square Roots is heading for Mars. https://squarerootsgrow.com/

Mars suits will be much better than EVA suits, lighter and more mobile, but I agree you need shirtsleeve environment to work efficiently on maintenance etc. And this is helped by safely having a reduced pressure atmosphere. However a rotated BFS is not the only or best solution. An expanded abrasion resistant thick fabric liner will take impacts, and being expanded inside a tunnel etc where a high-tec BFS shell will have to be treated carefully. A designed system for a key facility that can be planned to be deployed safely is worth the cost for a dependable solution. I expect there will eventually be plenty of "scrappy" solutions on the ground, but starting from a sound beginning. A makeshift workshop is no good if it kills a few ppl by bursting through being incorrectly supported.
 And I've raised heavy masts etc, and admit that while you could rotate the 85 Tonne (mass) (about 60,000lb weight on Mars at 1/3g) with sheerlegs, or similar, it is not the same as raising a couple of hundred pound generator! and comes with risk!!! - of accident, and failure, and unexpected failure down the line.
I wait to be proved wrong.
« Last Edit: 05/29/2018 08:42 pm by DistantTemple »
We can always grow new new dendrites. Reach out and make connections and your world will burst with new insights. Then repose in consciousness.

 

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