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Voting closed: 08/20/2018 03:29 pm


Author Topic: Mars - The Rest Of The Story  (Read 33153 times)

Offline testguy

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Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« on: 05/12/2018 06:33 pm »
Now that Falcon 9 Block 5 has been successfully demonstrated, same with Falcon Heavy ( yes I understand it was not Block 5 hardware), and Dragon 2 will be demonstrated soon.  BFR appears to have a roadmap falling into place for its fabrication, development and launch facility, be it at the Cape or from Texas.  Even Raptor now has several thousand seconds of testing as reported this week.  Given all this, I began to wonder what are the things not yet revealed in the near term (going out 6 years) Mars program and when should we hope to see them revealed. 

Specifically I would like to have a discussion on things other than BFR.  What is needed, by when, and when should we hope to have details?
 
Details such as, but not limited to:
     Regulatory approval
     Spacesuits
     Rovers
     Propellant manufacturing on Mars
     Possible teaming with other(s)
            NASA, orther commercial ventures, other country's space programs
     Pre-Mars manned flight demonstrations
     Astronauts selection
     Astronaut training program
     Communications
     Flight Plans
     Payload itemization for cargo flights
 

Let assume that BFR continues to hit its schedule milestones and is indeed ready for the cargo mission(s) in 2022 and Manned Mars flights in 2024 and all the GSE is in place at the launch site.  It is not the objective of this thread to get into a discussion about why or why not BFR will meet those dates, let's just assume it will be ready.
  Given that premise, then I for one would hope that more will be defined.  Yes SpaceX is not a public company and does not have to  reveal anything, but they are not in competition with anyone for this program.  However, it would be great to learn more about the other needed things to give more credibility to the program.


Offline meekGee

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #1 on: 05/12/2018 07:51 pm »
Ever since SpaceX laid out their plans, I was curious about one thing: A concrete plan for surface power generation.

Saying "solar" doesn't cut it.

- What is the planned power demand and production capacity?
- What is the tech, generally?  (Si, III-V? Rigid/inflatable?  Tracking?  Cleaning?)
- How will they bootstrap?
- Any concrete plans to make parts of it on Mars?




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Offline testguy

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #2 on: 05/12/2018 08:00 pm »
Ever since SpaceX laid out their plans, I was curious about one thing: A concrete plan for surface power generation.

Saying "solar" doesn't cut it.

- What is the planned power demand and production capacity?
- What is the tech, generally?  (Si, III-V? Rigid/inflatable?  Tracking?  Cleaning?)
- How will they bootstrap?
- Any concrete plans to make parts of it on Mars?




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It seams the hardware would be on the cargo flights because it will need to be up and running for propellant generation.  Anyone care to speculate on its mass, how does it get deployed,  battery mass and how to maintain?

Offline testguy

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #3 on: 05/12/2018 08:14 pm »
No doubt SpaceX has generated by now conceptual 3-D models of the pressurized portion of the BFS.  How cool would it be if they released  a Virtual Reality version of the interior of the spaceship now to build excitment?  We already know Elon enjoys teasing other projects of his. I believe SpaceX will be generating it anyway to aid in the spaceship design and for training.  Personnally I would buy any equipment necessary to run that software.

Offline speedevil

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #4 on: 05/12/2018 08:46 pm »
It seams the hardware would be on the cargo flights because it will need to be up and running for propellant generation.  Anyone care to speculate on its mass, how does it get deployed,  battery mass and how to maintain?
See the Powering martian civilisation from ebay thread.
In short, one BFS, using off-the-shelf panels and tesla class batteries can provide of the order of 500kW continuous throughout most of the year.

In addition, the solar panels the BFS has been using throughout the trip may be re-rigged and provide 10-20kW on the surface with no external deployment.
500kW is enough electricity from one BFS to do around a BFS worth of fuel every year.

Offline ChrML

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #5 on: 05/12/2018 08:51 pm »
Tbh I think SpaceX is hoping for NASA or someone else says "Hey, we can help with power, habitats, etc...".

And they may be right, once BFR seems plausible and transport is possible, they will probably get help building infrastructure.

Offline butters

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #6 on: 05/12/2018 09:22 pm »
The payload manifest for the first two cargo landers will be a challenge to design and edit.

From what we've seen so far, I think it's reasonable to baseline a crane-type cargo deployment system. It may be possible to do without rolling pallets, but rolling pallets would make things a lot easier. Self-propelled pallets vs. dedicated tractors is an interesting trade.

We can safely assume battery packs and solar panels are aboard the first landers. I think we can mostly imagine what a battery pallet would look like. In contrast, designing the solar modules will demand more clever creativity.

The propellant/oxygen plant is clearly the most critical electrical load which needs to be proved out in its actual operating environment advance of human missions.

A regolith mover of some kind will probably be necessary to ensure that this infrastructure can be deployed robotically on the surface.

It would be prudent to load mostly if not entirely identical payload manifests on both landers. The loss of one of the two landers should not set back the program by an entire synodic period. Much of the payload mass on these missions will be dedicated to infrastructure which is horizontally scalable in nature anyway.

It will be important to make an early assessment of BFS liveability in Mars gravity. How well can the ship's pressurized volume adapt from orbit to surface habitation? If the initial crew cannot live comfortably in the BFS on the surface while venturing out to assemble a longer-term home on the surface, then that complicates the precursor mission requirements.

Offline philw1776

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #7 on: 05/12/2018 09:35 pm »
Well before cargo flights comes the plan for landing site selection & the criteria.  Satellite surveys?  Landing/samples? SpaceX's LS selection criteria would be very different from NASA's.  Yes, both these days look for water for iSRU, but a base morphing into a colony has very different scale of water requirements.  NASA prioritizes science, aerology (geology) and astrobiology.  SpaceX likely prioritizes ISRU beyond water.  Building materials, minerals and chemical resources to build industry to sustain a presence.

No public indication as yet from SpaceX of any landing site selection approach.
FULL SEND!!!!

Offline meekGee

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #8 on: 05/12/2018 10:04 pm »
It seams the hardware would be on the cargo flights because it will need to be up and running for propellant generation.  Anyone care to speculate on its mass, how does it get deployed,  battery mass and how to maintain?
See the Powering martian civilisation from ebay thread.
In short, one BFS, using off-the-shelf panels and tesla class batteries can provide of the order of 500kW continuous throughout most of the year.

In addition, the solar panels the BFS has been using throughout the trip may be re-rigged and provide 10-20kW on the surface with no external deployment.
500kW is enough electricity from one BFS to do around a BFS worth of fuel every year.
I read the thread, but I want to hear SpaceX's story too... 

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Online Robotbeat

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #9 on: 05/12/2018 10:14 pm »
It seams the hardware would be on the cargo flights because it will need to be up and running for propellant generation.  Anyone care to speculate on its mass, how does it get deployed,  battery mass and how to maintain?
See the Powering martian civilisation from ebay thread.
In short, one BFS, using off-the-shelf panels and tesla class batteries can provide of the order of 500kW continuous throughout most of the year.

In addition, the solar panels the BFS has been using throughout the trip may be re-rigged and provide 10-20kW on the surface with no external deployment.
500kW is enough electricity from one BFS to do around a BFS worth of fuel every year.
I read the thread, but I want to hear SpaceX's story too... 

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ABCD: Always Be Counting Down
SpaceX is under no such obligation. But if you’re interested in what SpaceX has looked at, there are hints.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline meekGee

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #10 on: 05/12/2018 10:40 pm »
It seams the hardware would be on the cargo flights because it will need to be up and running for propellant generation.  Anyone care to speculate on its mass, how does it get deployed,  battery mass and how to maintain?
See the Powering martian civilisation from ebay thread.
In short, one BFS, using off-the-shelf panels and tesla class batteries can provide of the order of 500kW continuous throughout most of the year.

In addition, the solar panels the BFS has been using throughout the trip may be re-rigged and provide 10-20kW on the surface with no external deployment.
500kW is enough electricity from one BFS to do around a BFS worth of fuel every year.
I read the thread, but I want to hear SpaceX's story too... 

-----
ABCD: Always Be Counting Down
SpaceX is under no such obligation. But if you’re interested in what SpaceX has looked at, there are hints.

Why bring that up?  Of course they're not under obligation, nobody ever said they were.

But compare to what they've divulged on BFx: Structure, propulsion, Dry weight, GTOW, thrust, materials, performance, Conops... 

So the OP is right to ask - when will we hear about the rest of the story?  And to me, power is the #1 system of interest, and to a similar level of detail.

The title of Musk's presentations, after all, was not "BFx".  It was "making life interplanetary".  He wants to fly BFS to Mars in 6 years, I think the rest of the story is definitely called.
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Offline testguy

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #11 on: 05/12/2018 11:23 pm »
Tbh I think SpaceX is hoping for NASA or someone else says "Hey, we can help with power, habitats, etc...".

And they may be right, once BFR seems plausible and transport is possible, they will probably get help building infrastructure.

I agree it would be nice for others to come on board at some time.  However, with the schedule for the first cargo flights only 4 years out they need to be planning now for the cargo on those flights. Waiting until demonstration flights on BFR in 2020 is too late IMHO.

Offline obi-wan

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #12 on: 05/12/2018 11:37 pm »
Can I make a friendly suggestion that because this thread is about Mars and predicated on BFR, it ought to be moved to the SpaceX BFR section?

Offline John Alan

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #13 on: 05/12/2018 11:39 pm »
SpaceX is likely taking the obvious (to me) line of reasoning that...

If BFS/BFR does not work out and does not replace F9/FH and is making money for them here near earth...
Then really spending very much time and dollars on this topic you all seek answers to... is silly at this point...

Yes... SpaceX will likely send two BFS's to Mars and land both to prove they got this figured out...
BUT... (again my opinion)...
Those two will sit on Mars with the sole purpose to prod others to figure out and fund what will fly on the next synod.

Live pics coming back from Mars daily of two BFS's parked on Mars will get NASA and other groups and governments to now get very serious and fund this dreamy venture to put Boots and Buildings on Mars...

SpaceX is likely not doing any serious engineering yet on what this topic is asking...  ;)
« Last Edit: 05/12/2018 11:39 pm by John Alan »

Online Robotbeat

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #14 on: 05/13/2018 12:04 am »
I want to make one point clear first of all:
"Grand plans" are useless. If you expect detailed public plans from SpaceX, you'll never get them as they aren't worth the ink they're written in. Grand plans are WAY over-rated.

BFR is all "build it and they will come" right now.

NASA doesn't take BFR terribly seriously, yet. The only way to prove SpaceX is serious is for BFR (or at least BFS, which is the most important part for Mars) to fly. When that happens, watch partnerships line up. Same for "regulatory approval." But don't expect much of anything before that. Everyone else barely thinks Mars surface 2040 is doable, let alone 2025 and let alone at such scale.

Space suits shown in renderings look very similar to the Dragon Crew ones. And it doesn't make sense for SpaceX to announce detailed plans for Mars suits (which would mean devoting workforce) while they're still doing Dragon Crew suits and learning about suit design. SpaceX should and is devoting workforce to finishing up these things for commercial crew.

SpaceX is a large company, but they simply cannot devote enough money to keep people employed working on counting bolts on designs that probably will change drastically. They can't fund every possible permutation like NASA can. SpaceX IS and HAS BEEN working a lot of this stuff internally. You see hint of it in L2 and elsewhere. They've been looking at rovers, various solar power projects, nuclear power projects, etc. But it's still very in flux until BFR is ready.

The first cargo missions will likely be pushed back. But even if they aren't, I would not be surprised if the first cargo mission is fairly rushed and thus treated mostly as a tech demo. It would prove propellant production, but not necessarily at the full scale. This is in line with SpaceX's statements as of the 2016/2017 IAC. It won't necessarily be a full, fueled-up BFS on the surface.

SpaceX is funding constrained, and so they really hope to try to attract partners to develop as much of the ancillary stuff as they can. SpaceX is focusing mostly on EXACTLY what they should: BFR, starting with BFS.

BFS is the lander. It is also almost all the other elements in the mission. It is the primary thing that enables mass human travel to Mars at scale and at low cost. Established players (for the most part) have NOTHING like it in their plans. NASA has plans for Mars suits, Mars rovers (even having done desert test campaigns), etc, etc, etc. It doesn't make sense for SpaceX to duplicate that when they barely have the funding for BFS.

If SpaceX can prove BFS, all the rest can be negotiated. Maybe NASA will help with power and rovers and space suits?

That said, SpaceX is looking for "terrestrial" solar array tech, now, which I take to mean ground mounted arrays (i.e. on mars for ISRU). This job listing, for instance:
https://twitter.com/RocketJoy/status/989261693233479680
Quote
I'm looking for an experienced manufacturing engineer for my team! Ideal candidate is hands-on problem solver with experience ramping up a high volume production line for terrestrial solar arrays. Send me a message if you or someone you know is interested.
Quote
SpaceX was founded under the belief that a future where humanity is out exploring the stars is fundamentally more exciting than one where we are not. Today SpaceX is actively developing the technologies to make this possible, with the ultimate goal of enabling human life on Mars.

SOLAR ARRAY MANUFACTURING ENGINEER

RESPONSIBILITIES:

Develop and document processes used in the assembly of low-cost solar panels for space applications
Work intimately with solder and weld processes for conductor interconnection
Evaluate candidate processes using tools like PFMEA and Six Sigma
Conduct root cause investigations in the case of process issues
Characterize photovoltaic devices (LIV, DIV, EL, IR) and interpret results
Support the training of manufacturing technicians
BASIC QUALIFICATIONS:

Bachelor's degree in an engineering or scientific discipline from an ABET accredited university
5+ years experience in high volume, low-cost manufacturing processes
5+ years experience with polymeric materials and related processes
PREFERRED SKILLS AND EXPERIENCE:

Familiarity with spacecraft solar arrays and the space environment
Familiarity with terrestrial solar arrays
Enthusiasm for hands-on prototyping
Strong written and verbal communication skills


And comments by the person (Joy Dunn) running the project at SpaceX on Twitter:
Quote
Johan Karlsson:^BFS?

Thiago V Goncalves: Starlink maybe?

Mariano Ochoa: Mars base.

Joy Dunn: All of these things (and Dragon) need solar power. And all of these things need manufacturing engineers to build them :)

Obviously, SpaceX needs solar for a bunch of things, but one of the things they're already looking for is "terrestrial" array experience. I think a lot of this is to help focus on low cost, but doubtless some of it is very Mars-forward.


SpaceX can't yet afford a huge team devoted to everything. Thus everything (including surface solar power) has to be as dual-purpose as possible. Which is why they're focusing on things like BFR which can pay for themselves.

If BFR works, everything else can and will follow. Without BFR, it won't. So they're focusing on BFR.
« Last Edit: 05/13/2018 12:06 am by Robotbeat »
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To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Jim_LAX

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #15 on: 05/13/2018 12:05 am »
Seeing Elon's Red Roadster with planet earth in the background stired hearts and minds around the globe.  Seeing "Live pics coming back from Mars daily.." would stir even the most unimaginative government officials into action!
"I don't go along with going to the Moon first in order to build a launch pad to go to Mars.  We should go to Mars from Earth orbit."

Offline testguy

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #16 on: 05/13/2018 12:08 am »
Can I make a friendly suggestion that because this thread is about Mars and predicated on BFR, it ought to be moved to the SpaceX BFR section?

I looked at the section descriptions and was unsure where to place it.  Finally decided to put it in the SpaceX General section because the section title seamed like the best place even though the section description didn’t fit.  Never the less, if the moderator chooses to move it it is fine with me. I wouldn’t even know how to move it.

Offline meekGee

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #17 on: 05/13/2018 01:28 am »
I want to make one point clear first of all:
"Grand plans" are useless. If you expect detailed public plans from SpaceX, you'll never get them as they aren't worth the ink they're written in. Grand plans are WAY over-rated.

BFR is all "build it and they will come" right now.

NASA doesn't take BFR terribly seriously, yet. The only way to prove SpaceX is serious is for BFR (or at least BFS, which is the most important part for Mars) to fly. When that happens, watch partnerships line up. Same for "regulatory approval." But don't expect much of anything before that. Everyone else barely thinks Mars surface 2040 is doable, let alone 2025 and let alone at such scale.

Space suits shown in renderings look very similar to the Dragon Crew ones. And it doesn't make sense for SpaceX to announce detailed plans for Mars suits (which would mean devoting workforce) while they're still doing Dragon Crew suits and learning about suit design. SpaceX should and is devoting workforce to finishing up these things for commercial crew.

SpaceX is a large company, but they simply cannot devote enough money to keep people employed working on counting bolts on designs that probably will change drastically. They can't fund every possible permutation like NASA can. SpaceX IS and HAS BEEN working a lot of this stuff internally. You see hint of it in L2 and elsewhere. They've been looking at rovers, various solar power projects, nuclear power projects, etc. But it's still very in flux until BFR is ready.

The first cargo missions will likely be pushed back. But even if they aren't, I would not be surprised if the first cargo mission is fairly rushed and thus treated mostly as a tech demo. It would prove propellant production, but not necessarily at the full scale. This is in line with SpaceX's statements as of the 2016/2017 IAC. It won't necessarily be a full, fueled-up BFS on the surface.

SpaceX is funding constrained, and so they really hope to try to attract partners to develop as much of the ancillary stuff as they can. SpaceX is focusing mostly on EXACTLY what they should: BFR, starting with BFS.

BFS is the lander. It is also almost all the other elements in the mission. It is the primary thing that enables mass human travel to Mars at scale and at low cost. Established players (for the most part) have NOTHING like it in their plans. NASA has plans for Mars suits, Mars rovers (even having done desert test campaigns), etc, etc, etc. It doesn't make sense for SpaceX to duplicate that when they barely have the funding for BFS.

If SpaceX can prove BFS, all the rest can be negotiated. Maybe NASA will help with power and rovers and space suits?

That said, SpaceX is looking for "terrestrial" solar array tech, now, which I take to mean ground mounted arrays (i.e. on mars for ISRU). This job listing, for instance:
https://twitter.com/RocketJoy/status/989261693233479680
Quote
I'm looking for an experienced manufacturing engineer for my team! Ideal candidate is hands-on problem solver with experience ramping up a high volume production line for terrestrial solar arrays. Send me a message if you or someone you know is interested.
Quote
SpaceX was founded under the belief that a future where humanity is out exploring the stars is fundamentally more exciting than one where we are not. Today SpaceX is actively developing the technologies to make this possible, with the ultimate goal of enabling human life on Mars.

SOLAR ARRAY MANUFACTURING ENGINEER

RESPONSIBILITIES:

Develop and document processes used in the assembly of low-cost solar panels for space applications
Work intimately with solder and weld processes for conductor interconnection
Evaluate candidate processes using tools like PFMEA and Six Sigma
Conduct root cause investigations in the case of process issues
Characterize photovoltaic devices (LIV, DIV, EL, IR) and interpret results
Support the training of manufacturing technicians
BASIC QUALIFICATIONS:

Bachelor's degree in an engineering or scientific discipline from an ABET accredited university
5+ years experience in high volume, low-cost manufacturing processes
5+ years experience with polymeric materials and related processes
PREFERRED SKILLS AND EXPERIENCE:

Familiarity with spacecraft solar arrays and the space environment
Familiarity with terrestrial solar arrays
Enthusiasm for hands-on prototyping
Strong written and verbal communication skills


And comments by the person (Joy Dunn) running the project at SpaceX on Twitter:
Quote
Johan Karlsson:^BFS?

Thiago V Goncalves: Starlink maybe?

Mariano Ochoa: Mars base.

Joy Dunn: All of these things (and Dragon) need solar power. And all of these things need manufacturing engineers to build them :)

Obviously, SpaceX needs solar for a bunch of things, but one of the things they're already looking for is "terrestrial" array experience. I think a lot of this is to help focus on low cost, but doubtless some of it is very Mars-forward.


SpaceX can't yet afford a huge team devoted to everything. Thus everything (including surface solar power) has to be as dual-purpose as possible. Which is why they're focusing on things like BFR which can pay for themselves.

If BFR works, everything else can and will follow. Without BFR, it won't. So they're focusing on BFR.

Nah.  You're just presenting an extreme strawman.

Plans exist, even if they are tentative.  SpaceX has a good idea as to how much power they'll need and how they'll generate it.  The job postings are a good hint.

But they chose so far not to lay out these plans. The OP was asking about the "Rest of the story".  To various degrees of detail, SpaceX has put thought into this, and the rest of the story will absolutely come out in time.

"Build it and they will come" is analogous to "SpaceX only makes rockets" of several year ago.  While Musk will want to partner, I think there's a good chance that many if not all of the first set of ground technologies (power, ISRU, habitation, ground transport) will be created by SpaceX.

For example, suppose the first flight is in 2022/2024.  It will likely have rovers.  Who's making these rovers?  How long does it take to develop a Mars rover?
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Online Robotbeat

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #18 on: 05/13/2018 01:37 am »
I suspect SpaceX simply doesn't have the time or money right now to build rovers when the rocket hasn't been built yet.

There are two things that are well-proven on Mars:

1) rovers
and
2) solar power

Scale is different, speed is different. But there's a real engineering experience base with now literally decades of elapsed mission time. We know what materials work, and what don't. We know that putting a solar array on top of a hill means it'll get cleaned regularly. We know not to use super thin aluminum wheels. We even know (from Phoenix) about digging in icy soil.

So honestly, if you're going to pick something to wait until the last minute on, it might be those two.
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To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline spacenut

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Re: Mars - The Rest Of The Story
« Reply #19 on: 05/13/2018 02:07 am »
Well, SpaceX can probably get a Tesla rover built that can be used on Mars.  Then solar panels can be built by Solarcity another of Musk's companies.  Bigelow can probably make habitats based on their inflatables that can be brought on a BFS.  I'm sure that if SpaceX builds a BFS Mars transporter, a BFS tanker, and a stripped down BFS for an expendable second stage to deliver 250 tons to LEO vs, 150 tons, congress, NASA, the American people, space interested private companies, and foreign governments will all want a ride to Mars, and will begin to offer things needed. 

"Build it and they will come" might just work for SpaceX with a 150 ton completely reusable launcher.  Only New Glenn could compete and it will be smaller until New Armstrong is built. 

SpaceX, I don't believe, can do all of Mars alone.  There needs to be more robotic prospecting for water sources, a satellite communication system, a Mars GPS system, and probably more that I haven't though of, before humans land, I think. 

 

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